sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8b118679a2db072e9e12b6e0225220973a22335f | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xfc7b116c04e96a2b48c81e38c03bc754de9c62fd9c8170098958b1e51301c962 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-22 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on August 22? | 75,564,036 | 75,564,036 |
b67a4a5f1f098dd263fda0e327b99c2f673f8ea1 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xffe32d36e805826f525207f963cf42b636f295fb84595d3b554d41a02247c5ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on August 23? | 75,564,036 | 75,564,036 |
181233f205311f7309a5f4ddb269043788add234 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x0af9c656fc8d93716f930b4f113e5e7ce30e13b8f157db45b973b59cd4c0c837 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or below on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Ch... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on August 23? | 75,593,462 | 75,593,462 |
fe7ae48be1f799c009eea889d0657506811e7c88 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x4916241a5f7839579717ea5c32438bba27ee81b0c035477cac32a9cdb9e63704 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or below on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on August 23? | 75,593,462 | 75,593,462 |
0c97f4bb51c7ae5b6a1faacbb23c1acf7fe3eb03 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x610123d6c3464a7643c1a500ff2be4bd80b882ae6122500e1abc2835a02c645b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on August 23? | 75,593,462 | 75,593,462 |
7bccde8e8a532ce6b33af49d5c17e72a44038a7a | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x6d7d39babf17f6fe90548253ae20af9d661ee3430531c232119c3c60e720bcf4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or higher on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-augu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on August 23? | 75,593,462 | 75,593,462 |
2b13955539cd0e28fadd64c2d37b15e692c7a7f2 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x6ed924a4c25aba3d0901cf82dbbb707c514e11d93951ae5e24dfc40a0629396b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or higher on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-augu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 23? | 75,593,462 | 75,593,462 |
fa353d8ce480143a79d566107dbb4e4131502138 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xa2f6241bfe22bbc2b14137536e35a7f662192250dc79bab2f808b8efbb5eb500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 30 and 40 million views the first week? | Event: of-views-taylo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 23? | 75,593,462 | 75,593,462 |
be60f52ea74977eb623cea35c31baf44eb81f83c | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xc86d9ff70ba1492747ff1c45a72ace10f0f6dae93c077d8d45ef2635962673c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 30 and 40 million views the first week? | Event: of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on-new-heights-gets-week-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on August 20? | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on August 23? | 75,593,462 | 75,593,462 |
5eb0ef00c17ebd0ba505b0a8d7dcdc4578c41518 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x94f965564eb7d7f43489a46c8f4f457ee2279f0958ea4d09f464063695582a08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on August 25? | 75,671,126 | 75,671,126 |
ff516d5e1b1c7f8b076155edbd7ce948d022364c | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xc6fb86a79df98a49adaa9e3711aeae72c2f66dde02a17d1efd7a3205352f880d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on August 25? | 75,671,126 | 75,671,126 |
26cff8750763e8662ac31ad2c73299f9b00cbbf5 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xd80a21cba018db06c7d770b3de97930499142fcdb604afbbe6b667c95aca894c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 25? | 75,671,126 | 75,671,126 |
544cf3c41629f62cb74f7765bf5a87f1e4037ca7 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xcd5991c2238127cc9e24a8937b5df6e3d8b78982a38d10a88db0bfc43540ef22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-aug... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73-74°F on August 26? | 75,691,653 | 75,691,653 |
c4772f228cedd200088331ab7d90cbd5eee4363d | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x0c0cdc2c18d89382fd3c3d50066c685d8379f0e0163ef65e305a15ac9510790e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff? | Event: which-pair-advances-to-bolivia-runoff-election... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | 75,706,193 | 75,706,193 |
e576ba2a15f3ac9becaf62c80164fd597ffe3098 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x71ae0c796ec362ff2afc6576c388081fb4edff889d9521d82a96bf83bdf2f3e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff? | Event: which-pair-advances-to-bolivia-runoff-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or below on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-20 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 26? | 75,706,193 | 75,706,193 |
5276f5cf8deda4f7ea8180e2e47e11709e8d452b | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x9e56f5711792958e4a4e59c4d8bbf3b8778a947af674c38512f66145440d0136 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or below on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or higher on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be 83°F or higher on August 26? | 75,706,193 | 75,706,193 |
6e3b22222c9e90764e3ccef56678b1c9f84ee8b1 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x704791a0e857fef10e7809ef86a3f2dd8743fe952d3b901f163c319076263dbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or higher on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 26? | 75,706,242 | 75,706,242 |
f75de7e24306ee0b5829f820a310410521edd20b | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x75214946a611773c3af807d1498be925f523ead2c512029bc54f43fe97eb5730 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on August 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-augus... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 26? | 75,706,242 | 75,706,242 |
a1e17da5a0011ab7591392a2ac4b28f8de8cfe81 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x24f8f43e4c55e6e1f36f04ba2a3b891c056fda2ccdda37874e1e7e0c18f62ed3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on August 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on August 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on August 27? | 75,718,319 | 75,718,319 |
666124ca24fd92fb846b0057dcfd14d30f740b04 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x6270721f71b002e0d53f1e0ca50922581ef5fc58370b839059ebab628423dd87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on August 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-augu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on August 26? | 75,718,319 | 75,718,319 |
1b1555fb3da2fdce975ad588652d1fe8d65d08ac | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xcf0fbee02e7ad988cc221899fcfb1c9db21ad21f0feac679574ec63124e54421 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on August 27? | 75,718,319 | 75,718,319 |
3d46c1357aab3862f28111cac89add76e602ca4a | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xd814cebfc9a5e9ecb254f0902d0003e4a5308c040cf8ba002b8601b756428d5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on August 26? | 75,718,319 | 75,718,319 |
d4129a8e6744b0a2b0341c5331770e4d62d4a8e1 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x3d50879892f63c286268072b905b5897f64a8d3186bf50ec5ee2fc0b6b5a8f90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-augus... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or higher on August 27? | 75,755,556 | 75,755,556 |
2b3c3165b5796b98af0d15b0eefaa47f7d1dafe7 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x42821c7f1f02e51892ff07ee2f9e50287b5f267ca0a5525ec8d08800c650dbdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-22 |... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on August 27? | 75,755,556 | 75,755,556 |
1d7c27f4b239f7966d210fd7e8f0de4df5b19607 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x640067326bc39345fdbac1a546f8ffa3ceecd39c7fc74995ff105b25f82f18f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-22 | C... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-27 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 27? | 75,755,556 | 75,755,556 |
606af617d771c190c190c476b70d3a5737065b74 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x751bb5043a8f01d66c5ee46ac6bf581258b50bcdd070f916786be71dd4a67150 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-22 |... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on August 27? | 75,755,556 | 75,755,556 |
906b68e4bdd9e9149004e2fb6d04240e935ee3ba | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x77636d0970553acae6e1ea2e690745c2b270429c58fefe857809571ae8834390 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-22 | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on August 27? | 75,755,556 | 75,755,556 |
42a7ed4fe4e450f4f218a1382f67772c433bf36a | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x9d589ffbf83052c8c96ea301b4cb5a264e3387931dd8f80eb481c11ddca9c16a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-23 | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 27? | 75,755,556 | 75,755,556 |
61f6eab1f810e5a84f3e3a19863ba53eaed2681f | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xb64837292311ea997363c41bfd7107940ff5fed95f530ebc8fd9b6bf310c247b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on August 27? | 75,755,556 | 75,755,556 |
acfa3634bb2a4e43c4e1c3cfa65abad2227627e5 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xefd6511c56d58ea26eabbe8d9a9b12cdbaad735debe1e0f9a32582bb5b8b01d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-augu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 27? | 75,755,556 | 75,755,556 |
562c2010d92f7d2d7b930b172b1d4b6006e95812 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x26c98713f23e7fa09107fc29ec7c0994d14d29362b87c79dcacf101e4936db3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on August 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-2... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 28? | 75,772,101 | 75,772,101 |
0010ed7cd0f4fb5271a558d12ab9662e43953b1b | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x80adbdd6c5b383e8b5c8d8df167fd8018d22a6306189e845426d8ccd81cdf514 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 28? | 75,772,124 | 75,772,124 |
03be385f2cd59e378944588fe7898027b026a841 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xc5c469c2df1bc04446c5f737ca5bff26b07bf86f69a5e1535f27f0109cd1019b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-augus... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on August 28? | 75,772,124 | 75,772,124 |
e8c865e92845504bbeab2507e27a16d0298cfc63 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x4baa132e85d98600106908485d8191473a723b7bc03ee351dfb2330aab9a7c24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-aug... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on August 28? | 75,785,619 | 75,785,619 |
e63f9e14ff1ad20a0ed3b3ab56b747650aad044a | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xb262c47f8f66bf24e11614cfd8f2d4fa94fd25000a60f27fd0132d3180abdd01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-aug... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 28? | 75,785,619 | 75,785,619 |
ed0861cf4cbde4cb19a46ec6f72523cbfa40958a | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x5a878d809506e6d8ae58c63be96c1adc4fad4c7a25ec0d7f07787343032d9a5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on August 28? | 75,796,115 | 75,796,115 |
c59dae54c678cce92cdd8285d9b1d3fa7939a222 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xfdcf0b9187c6a8fdd17a84e141b4e0d15112c7a1e39733b7c21b385f3afe8814 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-2... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 28? | 75,796,115 | 75,796,115 |
5d9a8c3ff2504755c6015c952cdb364cd1a150a8 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xd70d652dd3aed0083cd5a5e53a7c3b134e67089c17edd147aefed4a4e680caab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-23... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or below on August 29? | 75,805,237 | 75,805,237 |
447b93f02a180be38ee2d2f90dbdd3b0268dae89 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x3cf313326e0298f896187bcd33c08324b812e67c6c8c93abcd4f43d68b1bf377 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on August 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-2... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-29-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $114K on August 29 at 4PM ET? | 75,832,931 | 75,832,931 |
c63b775de6575c9474ef7858e5bd95c5b992aa4b | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x958fafaacfa0616e3de370c6c7fcae19190a1fbdb9846743a4d79da1baae9af2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on August 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on August 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-au... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be 74°F or higher on August 29? | 75,832,931 | 75,832,931 |
17c52d4b4e45ff53c3ff854268080cdc57f33f65 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xad1c09f0e920a7a09ea4e20ef64a088f0e1464e939b6b01bb6002f8906dfb44c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on August 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-augu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-29 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on August 29? | 75,832,931 | 75,832,931 |
a03f0f23dac04d9c533ef848ee82d0ab77f6f651 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xdcaa2c048a44a5c3994283529032204afe494c35d043f165c146b5fdfef72eec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73-74°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-augu... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-29-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110K on August 29 at 4PM ET? | 75,832,931 | 75,832,931 |
90b7b480820d502930366f31652b44faa60fcc97 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xde1dcea5f54d7e7842b6dbc02d409fe9e898bfb6079449b79fb5da511c6e862c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73-74°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-29-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $113K on August 29 at 4PM ET? | 75,832,931 | 75,832,931 |
989c3eec6a82381575b6158a24db91470be765df | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x41f801ffd2bfd2a527164b0e859ca463ad991197e9287502f4a1e899dfac1cc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 |... | yes | 0.872612 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on August 29? | 75,832,931 | 75,832,968 |
9ea1ef7f96942ec671d93fdbb3fda63fc2287a41 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x4fb909813f4cc7a29a618207e51491d2c6cffac238308fc866525b6259f7f614 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 83°F or higher on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or below on August 30? | 75,840,593 | 75,840,593 |
d304c3407216bc44772fa4da8f321e670e5af5bf | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x89d0fb74e2e85cc4e0b31465384d1b77e4efda0e8369c1680142ba36a73257b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 83°F or higher on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on August 30? | 75,840,593 | 75,840,593 |
ba5077ce8e49bb38729453a60b7e670d4d4fa996 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xb1f948fae552c99028fea2169bce4e8010fb17a19bf7d42d2f656930bbcdf4a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on August 30? | 75,886,225 | 75,886,225 |
5f8a07b6105e894cde2c6488f8f92bdd5d92bc1b | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x2699956a36de7344182df190de40628fcf831e1d9915ccb1c64863cd627d729e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on August 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | C... | yes | 1 | mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Will MrBeast raise 40m on Sunday August 31? | 75,911,426 | 75,911,426 |
31a3d4169d142650e62fadca896934feb4fd18ea | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xe8a6e627bde35b8b954804309fb83cc923a4f7a309b8e2944a4bccee55e9ac0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on August 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-26 ... | no | 1 | mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Will MrBeast raise 40m on Tuesday September 2 or later? | 75,911,426 | 75,911,426 |
5610bd8c36f3027ce0fdb6d714d9876a9817f2c7 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x57e9d796690ec68393d70f0ddfaa2e123fcd49bc659313e8f9a06dd02840fc59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on August 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-2... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on September 1? | 75,954,426 | 75,954,426 |
88daeabb427bfc35e8bebbd6a6dd1675d5ee82b5 | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x5f4cde432444ba9f664e2322073ef5a63afb7b197be91529fd3a4e44f00cf2da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on August 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or higher on September 1? | 75,954,426 | 75,954,426 |
24fc488690c9ad57783b64518042dd18f69495fd | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0x071490c1f15188c9db31337984626ca937bfc2f090f626bb81eaee43c623ea6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or higher on August 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-2... | yes | 1 | uef-far-hrv-2025-09-05 | Will Croatia win on 2025-09-05? | 76,115,375 | 76,115,375 |
758bc7b6b3e83922b991db821da4da63b8e4782b | 0x0026ca70e996c6119f9a47a425245d227dcbaef7 | 0xdca651d00d5faba06f324523260d9a0be28acf055ae33cd008f1f376b0dd14aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or higher on August 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on August 27? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | uef-lat-ser-2025-09-06 | Will Serbia win on 2025-09-06? | 76,134,667 | 76,134,667 |
c44f33dc108106d7572fcdcf61a96481aa693020 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x6d7a40de5387ed03369e9247454d57d96438f9ae5e2ddb2af3dc74b62c667f5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?
Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | worlds-2024-lol-winner | Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | 63,818,198 | 63,818,198 |
1e39aca4be59f8426a973c40d78cfa51c8c08987 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xbb01eefb24a38a9aa1921ec168d3049e7374b28a2540937d06b3ff2524d66627 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?
Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output str... | yes | 1 | michigan-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | 63,987,461 | 63,987,461 |
521d4715ca8d76c6e449150fed4176e6f46eab05 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x668ebec8f48f1a0e76fa8bf20e5c39cc5d37da1e2cad3ff77562788e8f09a8e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 time... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-8? | 64,038,249 | 64,038,249 |
e1346cd47c7486e991e306cf26365fccb5c095f4 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xfdcd333ff42c2908a1c1ba56435e9de40969c32c1e83a1c2bc76352a74c5c0d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 | 64,109,871 | 64,109,871 |
2a8a9af575f83b1b2879d6795013b4d5ba2f0c4e | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x1663edea3eba0d1ae8f064276dd426cb0497a19bb5188dae48a2f8fa8ea34da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | ukraine-agrees-to-give-trump-rare-earth-metals-before-april | Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | 69,464,122 | 69,464,122 |
5a8ba8a0f75642f014025994ee76b039202d6568 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xea25ac09dd8bd1045000d26d929a8e82e63731ec1dacf40c920618853a6de350 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 30? | 69,705,014 | 69,705,014 |
60e8b696ef0dcdd4924d3daa69a63ab0646487e7 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x4c654e6c9ef8bd3b2cd589b62cd5ad44c5dfb9423c71b51bc6af1cf02baeb4db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | how-many-constitutional-court-justices-will-vote-for-yoons-impeachment | Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May? | 69,880,116 | 69,880,116 |
438f8c65196c321ce2c60b48eb663a428c55e2b5 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xa85c14232ef55745b1bcdcfe10fd55f628fcd8def33d4d112809b14d92cb8f5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | how-many-constitutional-court-justices-will-vote-for-yoons-impeachment | Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May? | 69,880,116 | 69,880,116 |
cca571334cb7bbc400486cbbe409ca041ebbda30 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xb96e1ba49d01585ad05633f2af925921c1edc0a93c11b739e501c53590cda2f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | how-many-constitutional-court-justices-will-vote-for-yoons-impeachment | Will 5-6 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May? | 69,880,116 | 69,880,116 |
24e916369c042dffadc4581374d49440ea854fdc | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xfc0f5082169704348186f640a562160a53cf12d95870f1c690822879d1024f9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on April 5? | 69,951,847 | 69,951,847 |
26536b6bc25da8497e08651228611b1bc066ea85 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xf3256afb2e7e0accf72153341c9fb839276ca17188b373716944362ddd00c8fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on April 6? | 69,974,579 | 69,974,579 |
8c923b236e43eba90df14dad6f3245564b4aff96 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x320c41c1adfebdfadda5c8b3a4fe95fff01dfa088243060b432927cca1ddfece | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | 69,993,166 | 69,993,166 |
4141254debfffc4c08cd0b0947d43fd449f43f16 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x64adc3c2287ec64397e3f1c487aa59963987bf2cc5b9d3d4845dcf7e2aa826cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 11? | 70,192,071 | 70,192,071 |
f956967dd73b10cd2d00e53c9bb6deb3165ab972 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x89936e03bd1d00ffe1764297f18298079f3465677af8ef38b1119b3b429b7469 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | 70,192,071 | 70,192,071 |
a24c91cc7becf80b44317a521f5fde6bce232351 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x1c7fddbc403ed55f7c355b575ffa38b7c43f349c62e4ce8ab072d12d350b1032 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on April 14? | 70,295,834 | 70,295,834 |
d76a6b5be9f07cf6172efde88765f378e3c9a5b9 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x0a37939eff6e70da165aeae19f2f9d8aaeb3baa73f84f1436ceb48fe21797e98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 0 | chatgpt-o3-released-today | ChatGPT o3 released today? | 70,376,858 | 70,376,858 |
c934fba1aa00beb7621cc639c92fc92fb4c20a30 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x0abf2a69414c78c4a9789a0ffaee54f4b3cd2fdc8fe5d8ed1ab169c82abd419d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? | 70,474,164 | 70,474,164 |
ab1cb4bb0271938ac250fd878ca1c5649e412c5c | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x8dda18bfbec16ad1f02c968b89a826f809b573856e5def881adb34386d118b31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? | 70,474,164 | 70,474,164 |
0b923dab613690a733f7d1b6af45025346407ccb | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,961,039 | 70,961,039 |
afb3a133181416875f52010161a091bf53e3745d | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xffffb2874475ae9c1e3a0e3c3c4b4e329eb3105427aa484f357bf41c5fd77c4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | 71,249,203 | 71,249,203 |
2004ec9e9836c4b0a5e77cfefe99166de97e5551 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,694,243 | 71,694,243 |
74eb842efe4b0a3b31954dc06f2ec024bb65a709 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x9e188bc8e49318bf51a34469886a70abf4398c878c582eeef2ad7bf928cc7d18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | american-idol-winner | Will Jamal Roberts win American Idol season 23? | 71,703,107 | 71,703,107 |
cbb4dd50b6dd161d92b9a756c576a65c49e0476c | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x30f262c6a1267418b4804da863df50d5af9a9aaef1e5d972d1e8e191155b987a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 68-70%? | 72,284,124 | 72,284,124 |
31a4cc60ea9e164ce8b1f65302871c5ff2703618 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xb081b826e9838fb4eaeeaf372c1e6504e3028dcaee9478603c9a0ebd3e315fc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%? | 72,284,124 | 72,284,124 |
cdb4684d33aa850f61ba6afb8b14b74134542e24 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x0a6b077ce7d728406a7ad3d94ca15a8686114573f903888b786b0258773babe6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-south-korea-presidential-election | Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election? | 72,338,603 | 72,338,603 |
c1d0cf6153ba17cf2c700c056f7f1ea9e0a81bc2 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x7eaab73269f6a83d6ec6dea02464b844b7c79d3a518265b8aa669842342ab3f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | south-korea-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? | 72,338,603 | 72,338,603 |
6a9e3ddae75887c7101c4e821d82fb72b9f585ec | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x6c4b2131d405fd900a4d4d610f5bc7e5800aaa6768864d8c927714b4b0c7b243 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? | 72,700,598 | 72,700,598 |
da901f5a2c36004227b7bc4e8f31ec26be2ed84d | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x3619f068f8c436835e108d1935ad71b2a4fd36e091d453278c787abc26293527 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? | 72,741,440 | 72,741,440 |
8c87fc33c6acb10ed75ff68052540f012a3763bf | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xcf25072fdc2e95c037e549c1a4513a543f2362b56c14f665c5e232504ecdc576 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 0.000001 | materialists-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m? | 72,764,995 | 72,764,995 |
46fde1f061a4ec99c0d3c46c742f22d4907bc059 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x5878c88da4332aa4b1f61d907d59b5aba809947b1213007469240ef1ba7ae1cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | yes | 1 | how-to-train-your-dragon-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $85m and $92m? | 72,860,174 | 72,860,174 |
83ecf31b244a64494394b07ee01d1333d2e02e10 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xa7d4562d9bce65476efeb1fc413147b8a999811fd306d966ded7529c1ef0ff70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-... | no | 0.99996 | how-to-train-your-dragon-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m? | 72,860,174 | 72,860,174 |
d7ac7108d3692258949889e4be9bb94eca070d5e | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 2024 presidential ele... | no | 0.333962 | us-military-action-against-iran-before-july | US military action against Iran before July? | 72,971,971 | 72,972,054 |
7a1773ccdd40308def9f0ce450c6e8078bf63c93 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x14a627125189acddf5dadf940f961ad6897c04be60f7fbd85f513e2cfa36b439 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 1-8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 55–60 million views on day 1? | 73,095,158 | 73,095,158 |
2d91bf20368a76e09639bd8687fd1bbfeb927d98 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x9b88ee73d37681f5956c11e576c6b41f6d48d9fdb2af182e88478ce0666ae77b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | Event: ukraine-agrees-to-give-trump-rare-earth-metals-before-april | ... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40–45 million views on day 1? | 73,095,158 | 73,095,158 |
aafecce888436e197a421b4f15d704b384083f6a | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xe55bffa7c89dbc4efc70cc0e0284a05e74f05acea9366a0a8d86440936c4758d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | Event: ukraine-agrees-to-give-trump-rare-earth-metals-before-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-30 | Choic... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on day 1? | 73,095,158 | 73,095,158 |
cbcd6ec8319d22d97d80df07bccaaf5d17466de8 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x1d1499830b75c7183ceae50d90fe078ffa43a2a25ad74bdfc5b59841c31273f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May? | Event: how-many-constitution... | yes | 1 | materialists-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $10m? | 73,146,676 | 73,146,676 |
ffc0aba0dec44501feefa1b1da654ff3512eaaa8 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x1e3383f1bc550777d16cf4b9711faf2989964181123ade8be0199b1eb47fcad8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May? | Event: how-many-constitutional-court-justices-will-vote-for-yoons-impeachment | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's i... | yes | 1 | elio-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $26-29m? | 73,146,676 | 73,146,676 |
88228ed48b164f83c4e8324dde7629d0d528a541 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x7a98f89dc6b004d61f53d9ba8b4390019b7616c629f0290bc562480d041f649c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May? | Event: how-many-constitutional-court-justices-will-vote-for-yoons-impeachment | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 5-6 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's ... | yes | 1 | 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34-38m? | 73,146,676 | 73,146,676 |
c8ed1774ee242e93ee3c53656b203ac163937113 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xbf4303529935e653b679ad67528a8c6fbcafa155c6a00a27c2910eacb871372a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 5-6 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May? | Event: how-many-constitutional-court-justices-will-vote-for-yoons-impeachment | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on April 5? | ... | yes | 1 | materialists-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $16m? | 73,146,676 | 73,146,676 |
f8e84d70fbba6140fb4b90ba55e417c453454761 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xc7ed038d058bfa276cebe40292eedc41d6628cb21c096349750dfed4e9e74945 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on April 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice... | yes | 1 | elio-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $29m? | 73,146,676 | 73,146,676 |
c2a6c6c82a8af7ef32029fcca038a8dd9edea98b | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x69a9152b324e4e28b04f4d0950612bdb4fdbb3d6d477f3c2518aa94c7c8996f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-canadian-federal-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19-20m? | 73,187,271 | 73,187,271 |
c86246267ae2943397183cb5a834a3778a1644ea | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-2025 | Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 73,439,528 | 73,439,528 |
f85018fd8f1c8da75724b807f357682eda723c25 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x68aa7c2ac6b386d08ceef92c5b00116acd6781d36f2fcb0237f26fc317ec579b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $128-139m? | 73,709,677 | 73,709,677 |
837a561323a3610039760e6ab6dabfc89373b41f | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x8c104fa7d363fcee6f3eb016ba1842905f0bdbeded6d790390bf4307bf4fb142 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on April 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-14 | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 0.999591 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | 73,967,117 | 73,967,117 |
334566c065d2d1f6ac33ea56bc7a58fb9428a85e | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0xe2b137a04ffe1bb844c52405a87c51fc9d4c60ba57791d08b7ff6cdc75e1a9ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on April 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: ChatGPT o3 released today? | Event: chatgpt-o3-released-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | yes | 1 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch? | 74,006,939 | 74,006,939 |
98abd894e0791d6a2c6534497f941d7d172e8134 | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x99414571aca688955888051e6b05abd2d13299ab882b4195615de5f8486238ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: ChatGPT o3 released today? | Event: chatgpt-o3-released-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $780... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | 74,091,479 | 74,091,479 |
4382f04b019e1606b7fafbe7c4e16c86a760a3bd | 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561 | 0x2e898d8bc9d2660fc16d2cc70496dd705448a5767f846a52f4b145f4513c4048 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? | 74,130,010 | 74,130,010 |
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