sample_id stringlengths 40 40 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 7.06k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 | question stringlengths 8 164 | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1713a4d6b0df2ebf1c50535ebd25198a4efd3fa6 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x6cc501fa617e3a46ececf6e3990fe1afeeaa6bc897d3c7049c005fd1bdc42c2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | 62,009,954 | 62,009,954 |
c5eb5260ed14eb761746ed06e3005e0b97a87230 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Event: presidential-election-winner-2024
Predict the user's choi... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,962,372 | 63,962,372 |
b914b78572643c4d9a9644833336a337caab9f4a | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x3397ddb6b66c23f7ebdb73771cf432a9f56221cdcab67de8b87a7848f2dcfc7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Ta... | yes | 1 | guyana-presidential-election | Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | 76,082,019 | 76,082,019 |
4fa4478bd61e216ab7456b2d8e30231b8341f318 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x0e49ff4c72a7a708a63c470df73e08841a3e033bd66cd1ccbd056bb6eddb13ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-norway-election | Will FrP win the second most seats in the Norway election? | 76,278,002 | 76,278,002 |
b35d86be9ff0a212ea7c26ba17ea2e9cda08946c | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xb9ec4394b00a43b7fecca64fd351f714ee6ee8bb241c2e04ecf89f0eeeb32cd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | 76,814,153 | 76,814,153 |
15e2e110c13c3f4323708eeca332a67e895a30a1 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xcae522305d759a1c34be22c4c1c1cf88314a0ca3dc993065470e14096aaf6cd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | lal-esp-val-2025-09-23 | Will Valencia win on 2025-09-23? | 76,838,978 | 76,838,978 |
a19f59d4c13330020b170fbbf2605c803eb44772 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x38cb5fc76d69a2855726aef35b01a56f7039e443e82e18846385f968b9220e72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | seychelles-presidential-election | Will Kisna Louise win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | 77,581,908 | 77,581,908 |
22a17dedea33178bfc9136cfdf220779f43e9dff | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x0d38ccdfbb5c380fe50b019cb54c09ffdc2c22bb410510ac6109f708dc0ce495 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | den-sif-kob-2025-10-17 | Will FC København win on 2025-10-17? | 77,817,214 | 77,817,214 |
3cd9762290ff94390be655819817703273c7a2c8 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x633c4df49530d1eccbf0d9f4a86cfcdf884fd46ced66697695e33389a2581180 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | den-sif-kob-2025-10-17 | Will Silkeborg IF win on 2025-10-17? | 77,817,214 | 77,817,214 |
748f287c5ff558330de07d098e0519c33c275cd4 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x2f150413a2d154229d03e2429cfdb7f1feba1dc77d7ffe7240fb2a828baea5a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | bun-uni-moe-2025-10-17 | Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-17? | 77,834,257 | 77,834,257 |
bdcc387fac2c82481ab470d463c0b740ecb51169 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xa8966de1053cb0321433367dfcc5816477fcf5ee52283c9563f7726caa97adb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | bun-uni-moe-2025-10-17 | Will Union Berlin vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? | 77,834,257 | 77,834,257 |
5cc45130ce5aaa57d7fb3c83f3a4e38be2f30bdd | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x8c36590432cbfec00a700549464eaa06e1073b6620bb6358233e1416b7e16804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Will Fulham win on 2025-10-18? | 77,860,399 | 77,860,399 |
29501bbde89f069389b7951ff90a6edb25819e3d | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xa423988fe26322d69deb1a61aaa9e3cede8bfe0dfcd05cd32a4455288c223439 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | ere-psv-goa-2025-10-18 | Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-18? | 77,860,399 | 77,860,399 |
6009e5b1e0a1bc7fb16efe7fa098e2774c0d7596 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xa90230bd14949a665af24b184e00ad153d2b07bf31737c716b42d870047b0eb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | lal-vil-bet-2025-10-18 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-18? | 77,860,399 | 77,860,399 |
cf0043d6c68ef41fe5843b7564b5fdb021dfd787 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x4e2a7b0168e167264a0b69582b17e3a50528d4414a75f0eadfeeb9d69595991e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | tur-kay-sam-2025-10-19 | Will Kayserispor win on 2025-10-19? | 77,893,783 | 77,893,783 |
44c84473a5ee1c764088460343a05b8af9b56445 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x6cb4e79281c3ea52f997a3ef4c360989667c2b42ad059e3ca9d2543b74658023 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | rus-soc-zen-2025-10-19 | Will FK Zenit win on 2025-10-19? | 77,893,783 | 77,893,783 |
7d33cf0fbc8d402bbbc4ca0d62970245f55569c4 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xf1ae03052965a5458f04bc80822b52d657f660acf1ab60465c9b39b294b02616 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | tur-kay-sam-2025-10-19 | Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-19? | 77,893,783 | 77,893,783 |
0956896c65af8a0bbc2037c1c6621a976b7aad68 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x6f5d043021861283ae1fefc953c8ae594b5af3b0a46dc317a07e98faf100c628 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | tur-gfk-ant-2025-10-19 | Will Gaziantep FK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? | 77,901,542 | 77,901,542 |
8c7ab1744894778b17e9da505f12ca2498828b20 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x7a039f8895f9e48b9953d8e320e507610d3e9447d8108a7a75062a8ed099da73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | den-bro-agf-2025-10-19 | Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-10-19? | 77,901,542 | 77,901,542 |
58b7fd7fbffec5c4be98ce8ec76944494eee6c5f | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xf4e8a4d02e4bfa0ed861112f9a1717a55987c2dd47ecb8c1296bed36903143e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | tur-gfk-ant-2025-10-19 | Will Antalyaspor win on 2025-10-19? | 77,901,542 | 77,901,542 |
f44e2340a5611e8b20f9b97b8c32ec6aaa8d5efb | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x0929ef4195628bddc8e59fd408f62d3934aec8ee8d5d361a73d44c0d5ca7490f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | den-sjs-fcf-2025-10-20 | Will Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. FC Fredericia end in a draw? | 77,947,696 | 77,947,696 |
61059481c81f5b47dbb202341f5bfad6480560c9 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x6e0e48142cb8abc0fa6235cc30b281abdc1a6404bb45734dbf28aad8e8e86cd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | den-sjs-fcf-2025-10-20 | Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2025-10-20? | 77,947,696 | 77,947,696 |
0568ccdd3c085edd1010eedc5bd374a8dffff582 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x60db305139e90e6d102c7071ea679c5d7379fa199ee610714b1341086a242e44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | ucol-sam-dyn-2025-10-23 | Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2025-10-23? | 78,093,671 | 78,093,671 |
d4e7167b2a6c662d6d6a3aef813551052054f3b3 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x838041db32f35068fa07b2d3d746a0e256ac3bd35f077258f3c597c92329fa23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | ucol-mai-zri-2025-10-23 | Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar win on 2025-10-23? | 78,093,671 | 78,093,671 |
9ebed10be4bab3d7f47a3518f747c63ea6f8f342 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x8700c7b0a3eb7b06b61e3214599be3076a6a2b85c86b2bddaaa6d3229367dff5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | ucol-shr-cel-2025-10-23 | Will NK Celje win on 2025-10-23? | 78,093,671 | 78,093,671 |
0b6ab14566e5da01cc758e4e2d4d94aba57359a5 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xf48e3abb202da2b771aa4a0cafeedd3dbf8281c33e7488e3c8df4f4fa15fff23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | ucol-sam-dyn-2025-10-23 | Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-23? | 78,093,671 | 78,093,671 |
fb78d202b8032eeef3be241971b6269903e95609 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x5716e71ca24dcb0b76af1c5fcf304d71dfdaea4f01d19d8ef6bf76958c8aaf24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | fl1-sbr-psg-2025-10-25 | Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? | 78,160,863 | 78,160,863 |
ea6fe661a2b46a6dadae11ea7f8b2aaacf988540 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x721ee58aad5021f7cc3552076a181f283332e5eb6b6ed9cc2d143b9ad533e166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | fl1-sbr-psg-2025-10-25 | Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-10-25? | 78,160,863 | 78,160,863 |
edbb129790900664069c383353fa52634a47f025 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x7e0f01cd95c28d2699259d70026370333982734d5c951d084e7e56be7498097a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | fl1-sbr-psg-2025-10-25 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,160,863 | 78,160,863 |
53f2e186061250172aa22e5c78a90d5311d89368 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x2037e4afa9759f66eef16d2213c16587f736eb7501843c6cfe818a641ddd4083 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | por-ben-aro-2025-10-25 | Will FC Arouca win on 2025-10-25? | 78,178,835 | 78,178,835 |
09a531521740c870d5662d756b3728cff83b0f2b | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xfb0d9584171237a3b640c7d8088721ac9ad0c6b6cb77f067fe242cb344f22c9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | por-ben-aro-2025-10-25 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-25? | 78,178,835 | 78,178,835 |
74e400c89d6563e209e0bd90f8946d7e6704eac8 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xb2671ef12566bcf376193aab6f5503d1d0d6502edc81482e92c9b42a2bf091bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | Event: guyana-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will F... | no | 1 | lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? | 78,202,927 | 78,202,927 |
b626f944b13bb829ae7cf98a2d3ffdcdf4175440 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x8d72371e6d91e90417f793e4b011abdeb7e45e65cb4dd90d8983ba9d621a9213 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | Event: guyana-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FrP win the second most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | fl1-ang-lor-2025-10-26 | Will Angers SCO vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? | 78,205,145 | 78,205,145 |
18ce35a769ab0c921896d3f08fc01d874b93f708 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xf41983f2d6f6ae35046d3fe35237fcee604b464df96473a7052c636a2a75bf37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FrP win the second most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Val... | no | 1 | fl1-ang-lor-2025-10-26 | Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-26? | 78,205,145 | 78,205,145 |
d49394bbf7517b610d76a6ccb42840e6f3310b72 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x785cb84757abc0166b5ba225480ca3b550bfdfecb1aa326851b8c1cb994bf3dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-09-23? | Event: lal-esp-val-2025-09-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kisna Louise win the 2025 Seychelles presidential electio... | yes | 0.632776 | fl1-ren-ogc-2025-10-26 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-26? | 78,205,145 | 78,791,235 |
f835681c5fb21a7926056ad356c519feabf8c3f8 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x914c42ca7504a0a324a844ecc7f2f23bd9f8a21604d9210490c2f29271ee48d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-09-23? | Event: lal-esp-val-2025-09-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kisna Louise win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC København win on 2025-10... | yes | 1 | por-scb-cas-2025-10-26 | Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-26? | 78,223,481 | 78,223,481 |
1d16a5522b01faa0195bfcca8470d904f74d8d55 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x9acbd87f435e56d4142f89854e5897258c223f9c7c3208c3582e579d8d6b749e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kisna Louise win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? | Event: seychelles-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC København win on 2025-10-17? | Event: den-sif-kob-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Silkeborg IF win on 2025... | yes | 1 | ere-goa-exc-2025-10-26 | Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-26? | 78,223,481 | 78,223,481 |
038eb43770535ffead8ff0f22ae97bf1f75256c9 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xe28620c9834e133d104a25453b0713bd06fd99d2673f9ca42792909a5391bb95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC København win on 2025-10-17? | Event: den-sif-kob-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Silkeborg IF win on 2025-10-17? | Event: den-sif-kob-2025-10-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-17? | Event: bun-uni-... | no | 1 | por-scb-cas-2025-10-26 | Will SC Braga vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw? | 78,223,481 | 78,223,481 |
b8a82a2d86b1cbf0ca54b16853994a36affb1673 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x5a178cbd7d71b86ba1632d88fc327379a3bf49b8a4f93e5c26ad3a03873fe6c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Silkeborg IF win on 2025-10-17? | Event: den-sif-kob-2025-10-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-17? | Event: bun-uni-moe-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Berlin vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in ... | no | 1 | cameroon-presidential-election | Will Abakar Ahamat win the Cameroon Presidential Election? | 78,238,079 | 78,238,079 |
681ab03d3ddaf23521c29e5fb231d419ddd62765 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xbe79f22965635de887b6d690911d04ec6a9d86ada78f2323f1ed56b316ece79a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-17? | Event: bun-uni-moe-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union Berlin vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? | Event: bun-uni-moe-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-10-18?... | no | 1 | cameroon-presidential-election | Will Franck Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election? | 78,248,049 | 78,248,049 |
1a03f72868870e3bd0e002efe247a3f07dd4e582 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x3d39d9321a8c4531c50f41f5bc2320cbfcc6694bce63d0430406baf249f04e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Union Berlin vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? | Event: bun-uni-moe-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-18? | Event:... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | 78,266,788 | 78,266,788 |
48d39cc963770e0d9877bf0ba2fcce878632f59b | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x0accc9c16c80c7965e909acef6c34d94580fa2f09a9ad41d08f8ccdfbb5499d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-18? | Event: ere-psv-goa-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-18? | Event: lal-vil-bet-2025-10-18 | C... | no | 1 | ivory-coast-presidential-election | Will Charles Blé Goudé win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? | 78,325,146 | 78,325,146 |
790bd7de5f585d7adb53d7ad90060c0deb28b504 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x2985e988c2a1f79007c4314422b7b5a888f72f0cf0f0c884e7d18e9791647d32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-18? | Event: ere-psv-goa-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-18? | Event: lal-vil-bet-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kayserispor win on 2025-10-19? | Event: tur-kay-sam-2025-10-1... | no | 1 | ivory-coast-presidential-election | Will Pascal Affi N'Guessan win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? | 78,325,146 | 78,325,146 |
bf1216d9a99a53939dde249f38433102b8525201 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x6c461674613d23904d3c5193421a50c4cfff4fe8305d0d6d87b8951771e9b97e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-18? | Event: lal-vil-bet-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kayserispor win on 2025-10-19? | Event: tur-kay-sam-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-10-19? | Event: rus-soc-zen-2025-10-19 | Cho... | no | 1 | ivory-coast-presidential-election | Will Simone Gbagbo win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? | 78,325,146 | 78,325,146 |
ac4340cceeabf400b63186b1d54f8f3051047255 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x7a9a5bce12c5085afd1490cf401e7f0a0447d85033495c227e4b7d7846f9c907 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kayserispor win on 2025-10-19? | Event: tur-kay-sam-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-10-19? | Event: rus-soc-zen-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-19? | Event: tur-kay-sam-2025-10-19 | Ch... | no | 1 | ivory-coast-presidential-election | Will Tidjane Thiam win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? | 78,325,146 | 78,325,146 |
662e56ee61e5712ddb5cd5c135a21bf9ebb96ef8 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0xc156d910cc3b380c03e18134b216d22e28d78b63666323d1b4ef489503a6de4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Zenit win on 2025-10-19? | Event: rus-soc-zen-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-19? | Event: tur-kay-sam-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gaziantep FK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? | Event: tur-gfk-ant-2... | no | 1 | ivory-coast-presidential-election | Will Gnangbo Kacou win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? | 78,325,146 | 78,325,146 |
23b6854be3e1a4f0e3a1519f221229be0abd3d48 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x2662919b83077f426197a84f07c8a1335eb36f89c9418dd4ff50b4ca3672f13c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-19? | Event: tur-kay-sam-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gaziantep FK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? | Event: tur-gfk-ant-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-10-19? | Event: den-bro-agf-2... | no | 1 | ivory-coast-presidential-election | Will Jean-Louis Billon win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? | 78,330,116 | 78,330,116 |
e65572747b0751546eefbd90efc8f9431c97cfaa | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x0a69601d8ccda200e6af21ebeb5bc64e76657dd573d7e1b09eb4e21b02a25132 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gaziantep FK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? | Event: tur-gfk-ant-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-10-19? | Event: den-bro-agf-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Antalyaspor win on 2025-10-19? | Event: tur-gfk-ant-2... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | 78,485,278 | 78,485,278 |
58d3897fde894e0b0f1e5c3091639da33e8d4c41 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x21a921b2d2ffa9855cccb85a8bb8d41a11fb9c2a1d42f7430632063ba1921ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-10-19? | Event: den-bro-agf-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Antalyaspor win on 2025-10-19? | Event: tur-gfk-ant-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. FC Fredericia end in a draw? | Event: den-... | no | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-01? | 78,485,278 | 78,485,278 |
9946055d366e17c54d18ad81ae85213df51c2aa7 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x337f3607b1191806e55dc2a70bd43dab22e30fbeab8efa3dc4f4291db7e8181d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Antalyaspor win on 2025-10-19? | Event: tur-gfk-ant-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. FC Fredericia end in a draw? | Event: den-sjs-fcf-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2025-10-20? | E... | no | 1 | lal-rea-val-2025-11-01 | Will Real Madrid vs. Valencia end in a draw? | 78,485,278 | 78,485,278 |
2419297bdea86da7bd8be2913bfc52e3a70e02f9 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x3a6a48d86c023cff45c84f8e776da754bf2d851c21ef9c36c469ca25f25b668a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. FC Fredericia end in a draw? | Event: den-sjs-fcf-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2025-10-20? | Event: den-sjs-fcf-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2025-10-23?... | no | 1 | lal-rea-val-2025-11-01 | Will Valencia win on 2025-11-01? | 78,485,278 | 78,485,278 |
3d6bfa0fc9d0914da3ef9f8c8efbb5fcad52befb | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x7313ef7f8ee13603355872b5e985d614c5aa0c2a00d201aeb24a121bb35b7d7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2025-10-20? | Event: den-sjs-fcf-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2025-10-23? | Event: ucol-sam-dyn-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uco... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-val-2025-11-01 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-01? | 78,485,278 | 78,485,278 |
086540d7ea5ea612dcef5fa0dfd1179a90971250 | 0x0015c5a76490d303e837d79dd5cf6a3825e4d5b0 | 0x7933a780a4e650e43f19a61e7847a4984d7b006888f160dd0dce96df7416b209 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2025-10-23? | Event: ucol-sam-dyn-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar win on 2025-10-23? | Event: ucol-mai-zri-2025-10-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NK Celje win on 2025-10-23? | Event: ucol-shr-cel-2... | no | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Liverpool vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 78,485,278 | 78,485,278 |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
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V1 Cognition Benchmark (Minimal)
This minimal release contains only the model-ready training table and its basic stats.
Files
cognition_wallet_market_labels_holdpos_noconf_mk10plus.parquet(main training set)cognition_wallet_market_labels_holdpos_noconf_mk10plus_stats.csv(quick dataset stats)SHA256SUMS.txt(integrity checks)
Headline
- wallets: 31,319
- wallet×market rows: 1,810,609
- Downloads last month
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