Daily Papers

Earth observation (EO) applications involving complex and heterogeneous data sources are commonly approached with machine learning models. However, there is a common assumption that data sources will be persistently available. Different situations could affect the availability of EO sources, like noise, clouds, or satellite mission failures. In this work, we assess the impact of missing temporal and static EO sources in trained models across four datasets with classification and regression tasks. We compare the predictive quality of different methods and find that some are naturally more robust to missing data. The Ensemble strategy, in particular, achieves a prediction robustness up to 100%. We evidence that missing scenarios are significantly more challenging in regression than classification tasks. Finally, we find that the optical view is the most critical view when it is missing individually.

Activity and property prediction models are the central workhorses in drug discovery and materials sciences, but currently they have to be trained or fine-tuned for new tasks. Without training or fine-tuning, scientific language models could be used for such low-data tasks through their announced zero- and few-shot capabilities. However, their predictive quality at activity prediction is lacking. In this work, we envision a novel type of activity prediction model that is able to adapt to new prediction tasks at inference time, via understanding textual information describing the task. To this end, we propose a new architecture with separate modules for chemical and natural language inputs, and a contrastive pre-training objective on data from large biochemical databases. In extensive experiments, we show that our method CLAMP yields improved predictive performance on few-shot learning benchmarks and zero-shot problems in drug discovery. We attribute the advances of our method to the modularized architecture and to our pre-training objective.

Triplet networks are widely used models that are characterized by good performance in classification and retrieval tasks. In this work we propose to train a triplet network by putting it as the discriminator in Generative Adversarial Nets (GANs). We make use of the good capability of representation learning of the discriminator to increase the predictive quality of the model. We evaluated our approach on Cifar10 and MNIST datasets and observed significant improvement on the classification performance using the simple k-nn method.

Time series classification (TSC) enables important use cases, however lacks a unified understanding of performance trade-offs across models, datasets, and hardware. While resource awareness has grown in the field, TSC methods have not yet been rigorously evaluated for energy efficiency. This paper introduces a holistic evaluation framework that explicitly explores the balance of predictive performance and resource consumption in TSC. To boost efficiency, we apply a theoretically bounded pruning strategy to leading hybrid classifiers - Hydra and Quant - and present Hydrant, a novel, prunable combination of both. With over 4000 experimental configurations across 20 MONSTER datasets, 13 methods, and three compute setups, we systematically analyze how model design, hyperparameters, and hardware choices affect practical TSC performance. Our results showcase that pruning can significantly reduce energy consumption by up to 80% while maintaining competitive predictive quality, usually costing the model less than 5% of accuracy. The proposed methodology, experimental results, and accompanying software advance TSC toward sustainable and reproducible practice.

Sentences that present a complex syntax act as a major stumbling block for downstream Natural Language Processing applications whose predictive quality deteriorates with sentence length and complexity. The task of Text Simplification (TS) may remedy this situation. It aims to modify sentences in order to make them easier to process, using a set of rewriting operations, such as reordering, deletion, or splitting. State-of-the-art syntactic TS approaches suffer from two major drawbacks: first, they follow a very conservative approach in that they tend to retain the input rather than transforming it, and second, they ignore the cohesive nature of texts, where context spread across clauses or sentences is needed to infer the true meaning of a statement. To address these problems, we present a discourse-aware TS approach that splits and rephrases complex English sentences within the semantic context in which they occur. Based on a linguistically grounded transformation stage that uses clausal and phrasal disembedding mechanisms, complex sentences are transformed into shorter utterances with a simple canonical structure that can be easily analyzed by downstream applications. With sentence splitting, we thus address a TS task that has hardly been explored so far. Moreover, we introduce the notion of minimality in this context, as we aim to decompose source sentences into a set of self-contained minimal semantic units. To avoid breaking down the input into a disjointed sequence of statements that is difficult to interpret because important contextual information is missing, we incorporate the semantic context between the split propositions in the form of hierarchical structures and semantic relationships. In that way, we generate a semantic hierarchy of minimal propositions that leads to a novel representation of complex assertions that puts a semantic layer on top of the simplified sentences.

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great potential across a wide range of legal tasks. Despite these advances, mitigating hallucination remains a significant challenge, with state-of-the-art LLMs still frequently generating incorrect legal references. In this paper, we focus on the problem of legal citation prediction within the Australian law context, where correctly identifying and citing relevant legislations or precedents is critical. We compare several approaches: prompting general purpose and law-specialised LLMs, retrieval-only pipelines with both generic and domain-specific embeddings, task-specific instruction-tuning of LLMs, and hybrid strategies that combine LLMs with retrieval augmentation, query expansion, or voting ensembles. Our findings indicate that domain-specific pre-training alone is insufficient for achieving satisfactory citation accuracy even after law-specialised pre-training. In contrast, instruction tuning on our task-specific dataset dramatically boosts performance reaching the best results across all settings. We also highlight that database granularity along with the type of embeddings play a critical role in the performance of retrieval systems. Among retrieval-based approaches, hybrid methods consistently outperform retrieval-only setups, and among these, ensemble voting delivers the best result by combining the predictive quality of instruction-tuned LLMs with the retrieval system.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant progress from pre-training on and memorizing a wide range of textual data, however, this process might suffer from privacy issues and violations of data protection regulations. As a result, the ability to easily remove data related to individual users from such models while not deteriorating their predictive quality after the removal becomes increasingly important. To address these issues, in this work, we propose an efficient unlearning framework that could efficiently update LLMs without having to retrain the whole model after data removals, by introducing lightweight unlearning layers learned with a selective teacher-student objective into the transformers. In addition, we introduce a fusion mechanism to effectively combine different unlearning layers that learns to forget different sets of data to handle a sequence of forgetting operations. Experiments on classification and generation tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods compared to the state-of-the-art baselines.

Data quality or data evaluation is sometimes a task as important as collecting a large volume of data when it comes to generating accurate artificial intelligence models. In fact, being able to evaluate the data can lead to a larger database that is better suited to a particular problem because we have the ability to filter out data obtained automatically of dubious quality. In this paper we present RLBoost, an algorithm that uses deep reinforcement learning strategies to evaluate a particular dataset and obtain a model capable of estimating the quality of any new data in order to improve the final predictive quality of a supervised learning model. This solution has the advantage that of being agnostic regarding the supervised model used and, through multi-attention strategies, takes into account the data in its context and not only individually. The results of the article show that this model obtains better and more stable results than other state-of-the-art algorithms such as LOO, DataShapley or DVRL.

The past a few years have witnessed the great success of large language models, demonstrating powerful capabilities in comprehending textual data and generating human-like languages. Large language models achieve success by being trained on vast amounts of textual data, including online sources with copyrighted content and user-generated knowledge. However, this comes at a cost: the potential risk of exposing users' privacy and violating copyright protections. Thus, to safeguard individuals' "right to be forgotten", there has been increasing interests in machine unlearning -- the process of removing information carried by particular training samples from a model while not deteriorating its predictive quality. This is a challenging task due to the black-box nature of language models. Most existing studies focus on mitigating the impact of those forgot samples upon a model's outputs, and do not explicitly consider the geometric distributions of samples in the latent space of a model. To address this issue, we propose a machine unlearning framework, named Deep Contrastive Unlearning for fine-Tuning (DeepCUT) language models. Our proposed model achieves machine unlearning by directly optimizing the latent space of a model. Comprehensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of DeepCUT with consistent and significant improvement over baseline methods.

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions made by large language models (LLMs) in binary text classification tasks remains a challenge. Calibration, in the context of LLMs, refers to the alignment between the model's predicted probabilities and the actual correctness of its predictions. A well-calibrated model should produce probabilities that accurately reflect the likelihood of its predictions being correct. We propose a novel approach that utilizes the inductive Venn--Abers predictor (IVAP) to calibrate the probabilities associated with the output tokens corresponding to the binary labels. Our experiments on the BoolQ dataset using the Llama 2 model demonstrate that IVAP consistently outperforms the commonly used temperature scaling method for various label token choices, achieving well-calibrated probabilities while maintaining high predictive quality. Our findings contribute to the understanding of calibration techniques for LLMs and provide a practical solution for obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates in binary question answering tasks, enhancing the interpretability and trustworthiness of LLM predictions.

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs, which learn a distribution over weights, are currently the state-of-the-art for estimating predictive uncertainty; however these require significant modifications to the training procedure and are computationally expensive compared to standard (non-Bayesian) NNs. We propose an alternative to Bayesian NNs that is simple to implement, readily parallelizable, requires very little hyperparameter tuning, and yields high quality predictive uncertainty estimates. Through a series of experiments on classification and regression benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates which are as good or better than approximate Bayesian NNs. To assess robustness to dataset shift, we evaluate the predictive uncertainty on test examples from known and unknown distributions, and show that our method is able to express higher uncertainty on out-of-distribution examples. We demonstrate the scalability of our method by evaluating predictive uncertainty estimates on ImageNet.

Qualitative interviews provide essential insights into human experiences when they elicit high-quality responses. While qualitative and NLP researchers have proposed various measures of interview quality, these measures lack validation that high-scoring responses actually contribute to the study's goals. In this work, we identify, implement, and evaluate 10 proposed measures of interview response quality to determine which are actually predictive of a response's contribution to the study findings. To conduct our analysis, we introduce the Qualitative Interview Corpus, a newly constructed dataset of 343 interview transcripts with 16,940 participant responses from 14 real research projects. We find that direct relevance to a key research question is the strongest predictor of response quality. We additionally find that two measures commonly used to evaluate NLP interview systems, clarity and surprisal-based informativeness, are not predictive of response quality. Our work provides analytic insights and grounded, scalable metrics to inform the design of qualitative studies and the evaluation of automated interview systems.

Topic modeling analyzes documents to learn meaningful patterns of words. However, existing topic models fail to learn interpretable topics when working with large and heavy-tailed vocabularies. To this end, we develop the Embedded Topic Model (ETM), a generative model of documents that marries traditional topic models with word embeddings. In particular, it models each word with a categorical distribution whose natural parameter is the inner product between a word embedding and an embedding of its assigned topic. To fit the ETM, we develop an efficient amortized variational inference algorithm. The ETM discovers interpretable topics even with large vocabularies that include rare words and stop words. It outperforms existing document models, such as latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), in terms of both topic quality and predictive performance.

Machine learning models always make a prediction, even when it is likely to be inaccurate. This behavior should be avoided in many decision support applications, where mistakes can have severe consequences. Albeit already studied in 1970, machine learning with rejection recently gained interest. This machine learning subfield enables machine learning models to abstain from making a prediction when likely to make a mistake. This survey aims to provide an overview on machine learning with rejection. We introduce the conditions leading to two types of rejection, ambiguity and novelty rejection, which we carefully formalize. Moreover, we review and categorize strategies to evaluate a model's predictive and rejective quality. Additionally, we define the existing architectures for models with rejection and describe the standard techniques for learning such models. Finally, we provide examples of relevant application domains and show how machine learning with rejection relates to other machine learning research areas.

Financial services is a prospect industry where unlocked near-term quantum utility could yield profitable potential, and, in particular, quantum machine learning algorithms could potentially benefit businesses by improving the quality of predictive models. Quantum kernel methods have demonstrated success in financial, binary classification tasks, like fraud detection, and avoid issues found in variational quantum machine learning approaches. However, choosing a suitable quantum kernel for a classical dataset remains a challenge. We propose a hybrid, quantum multiple kernel learning (QMKL) methodology that can improve classification quality over a single kernel approach. We test the robustness of QMKL on several financially relevant datasets using both fidelity and projected quantum kernel approaches. We further demonstrate QMKL on quantum hardware using an error mitigation pipeline and show the benefits of QMKL in the large qubit regime.

Inference-Time-Compute (ITC) methods like Best-of-N and Tree-of-Thoughts are meant to produce output candidates that are both high-quality and diverse, but their use of high-temperature sampling often fails to achieve meaningful output diversity. Moreover, existing ITC methods offer limited control over how to perform reasoning, which in turn limits their explainability. We present STATe-of-Thoughts (STATe), an interpretable ITC method that searches over high-level reasoning patterns. STATe replaces stochastic sampling with discrete and interpretable textual interventions: a controller selects actions encoding high-level reasoning choices, a generator produces reasoning steps conditioned on those choices, and an evaluator scores candidates to guide search. This structured approach yields three main advantages. First, action-guided textual interventions produce greater response diversity than temperature-based sampling. Second, in a case study on argument generation, STATe's explicit action sequences capture interpretable features that are highly predictive of output quality. Third, estimating the association between performance and action choices allows us to identify promising yet unexplored regions of the action space and steer generation directly toward them. Together, these results establish STATe as a practical framework for generating high-quality, diverse, and interpretable text. Our framework is available at https://github.com/zbambergerNLP/state-of-thoughts.

This paper presents a new approach for assessing uncertainty in machine translation by simultaneously evaluating translation quality and providing a reliable confidence score. Our approach utilizes conformal predictive distributions to produce prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, meaning that for any given significance level epsilon, we can expect the true quality score of a translation to fall out of the interval at a rate of 1-epsilon. In this paper, we demonstrate how our method outperforms a simple, but effective baseline on six different language pairs in terms of coverage and sharpness. Furthermore, we validate that our approach requires the data exchangeability assumption to hold for optimal performance.

Accurate air quality forecasts are vital for public health alerts, exposure assessment, and emissions control. In practice, observational data are often missing in varying proportions and patterns due to collection and transmission issues. These incomplete spatiotemporal records impede reliable inference and risk assessment and can lead to overconfident extrapolation. To address these challenges, we propose an end to end framework, the channel gated learning unit based spatiotemporal bayesian neural field (CGLUBNF). It uses Fourier features with a graph attention encoder to capture multiscale spatial dependencies and seasonal temporal dynamics. A channel gated learning unit, equipped with learnable activations and gated residual connections, adaptively filters and amplifies informative features. Bayesian inference jointly optimizes predictive distributions and parameter uncertainty, producing point estimates and calibrated prediction intervals. We conduct a systematic evaluation on two real world datasets, covering four typical missing data patterns and comparing against five state of the art baselines. CGLUBNF achieves superior prediction accuracy and sharper confidence intervals. In addition, we further validate robustness across multiple prediction horizons and analysis the contribution of extraneous variables. This research lays a foundation for reliable deep learning based spatio-temporal forecasting with incomplete observations in emerging sensing paradigms, such as real world vehicle borne mobile monitoring.

Recent work has shown that leveraging learned predictions can improve the running time of algorithms for bipartite matching and similar combinatorial problems. In this work, we build on this idea to improve the performance of the widely used Ford-Fulkerson algorithm for computing maximum flows by seeding Ford-Fulkerson with predicted flows. Our proposed method offers strong theoretical performance in terms of the quality of the prediction. We then consider image segmentation, a common use-case of flows in computer vision, and complement our theoretical analysis with strong empirical results.

Video Variational Autoencoder (VAE) enables latent video generative modeling by mapping the visual world into compact spatiotemporal latent spaces, improving training efficiency and stability. While existing video VAEs achieve commendable reconstruction quality, continued optimization of reconstruction does not necessarily translate into improved generative performance. How to enhance the diffusability of video latents remains a critical and unresolved challenge. In this work, inspired by principles of predictive world modeling, we investigate the potential of predictive learning to improve the video generative modeling. To this end, we introduce a simple and effective predictive reconstruction objective that unifies predictive learning with video reconstruction. Specifically, we randomly discard future frames and encode only partial past observations, while training the decoder to reconstruct the observed frames and predict future ones simultaneously. This design encourages the latent space to encode temporally predictive structures and build a more coherent understanding of video dynamics, thereby improving generation quality. Our model, termed Predictive Video VAE (PV-VAE), achieves superior performance on video generation, with 52% faster convergence and a 34.42 FVD improvement over the Wan2.2 VAE on UCF101. Furthermore, comprehensive analyses demonstrate that PV-VAE not only exhibits favorable scalability, with generative performance improving alongside VAE training, but also yields consistent gains in downstream video understanding, underscoring a latent space that effectively captures temporal coherence and motion priors.

Image Quality Assessment (IQA) predicts perceptual quality scores consistent with human judgments. Recent RL-based IQA methods built on MLLMs focus on generating visual quality descriptions and scores, ignoring two key reliability limitations: (i) although the model's prediction stability varies significantly across training samples, existing GRPO-based methods apply uniform advantage weighting, thereby amplifying noisy signals from unstable samples in gradient updates; (ii) most works emphasize text-grounded reasoning over images while overlooking the model's visual perception ability of image content. In this paper, we propose Q-Hawkeye, an RL-based reliable visual policy optimization framework that redesigns the learning signal through unified Uncertainty-Aware Dynamic Optimization and Perception-Aware Optimization. Q-Hawkeye estimates predictive uncertainty using the variance of predicted scores across multiple rollouts and leverages this uncertainty to reweight each sample's update strength, stabilizing policy optimization. To strengthen perceptual reliability, we construct paired inputs of degraded images and their original images and introduce an Implicit Perception Loss that constrains the model to ground its quality judgments in genuine visual evidence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Q-Hawkeye outperforms state-of-the-art methods and generalizes better across multiple datasets. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/Q-Hawkeye.

This paper investigates robust representation learning in offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL). Particularly in sparse reward scenarios, learning representations that align state and goal latents is a challenge that frequently culminates in representation divergence where the encoder drifts toward a low-dimensional, goal-agnostic subspace that destabilizes policy learning. We address this issue by showing that an agent must acquire a fundamental understanding of its environment across multiple scales, from local physical dynamics to long-horizon goal-directed structure. Building on this insight, we propose Ms.PR, a framework that leverages multi-scale predictive supervision to enforce goal-directed alignment within the latent space. We demonstrate that Ms.PR leads to improved representation quality and strong performance on both vision and state-based tasks. Furthermore, we show that our approach is exceptionally resilient under realistic, challenging data regimes, maintaining state-of-the-art performance across a wide variety of tasks, trajectory stitching scenarios, and extreme noise conditions.

Learning efficient representations for decision-making policies is a challenge in imitation learning (IL). Current IL methods require expert demonstrations, which are expensive to collect. Consequently, they often have underdeveloped world models. Self-supervised learning (SSL) offers an alternative by allowing models to learn from diverse, unlabeled data, including failures. However, SSL methods often operate in raw input space, making them inefficient. In this work, we propose ACT-JEPA, a novel architecture that integrates IL and SSL to enhance policy representations. We train a policy to predict (1) action sequences and (2) abstract observation sequences. The first objective uses action chunking to improve action prediction and reduce compounding errors. The second objective extends this idea of chunking by predicting abstract observation sequences. We utilize Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture to predict in abstract representation space, allowing the model to filter out irrelevant details, improve efficiency, and develop a robust world model. Our experiments show that ACT-JEPA improves the quality of representations by learning temporal environment dynamics. Additionally, the model's ability to predict abstract observation sequences results in representations that effectively generalize to action sequence prediction. ACT-JEPA performs on par with established baselines across a range of decision-making tasks.

Accurate diagnosis of heart arrhythmias requires the interpretation of electrocardiograms (ECG), which capture the electrical activity of the heart. Automating this process through machine learning is challenging due to the need for large annotated datasets, which are difficult and costly to collect. To address this issue, transfer learning is often employed, where models are pre-trained on large datasets and fine-tuned for specific ECG classification tasks with limited labeled data. Self-supervised learning has become a widely adopted pre-training method, enabling models to learn meaningful representations from unlabeled datasets. In this work, we explore the joint-embedding predictive architecture (JEPA) for self-supervised learning from ECG data. Unlike invariance-based methods, JEPA does not rely on hand-crafted data augmentations, and unlike generative methods, it predicts latent features rather than reconstructing input data. We create a large unsupervised pre-training dataset by combining ten public ECG databases, amounting to over one million records. We pre-train Vision Transformers using JEPA on this dataset and fine-tune them on various PTB-XL benchmarks. Our results show that JEPA outperforms existing invariance-based and generative approaches, achieving an AUC of 0.945 on the PTB-XL all statements task. JEPA consistently learns the highest quality representations, as demonstrated in linear evaluations, and proves advantageous for pre-training even in the absence of additional data.

Language model pretraining involves training on extensive corpora, where data quality plays a pivotal role. In this work, we aim to directly estimate the contribution of data during pretraining and select pretraining data in an efficient manner. Specifically, we draw inspiration from recent findings showing that compression efficiency (i.e., the normalized loss) of diverse models on certain text correlates strongly with their downstream performance, when the text domain aligns with the downstream benchmark (Huang et al., 2024). Building on this observation, we hypothesize that data on which model losses are predictive of downstream abilities also contribute effectively to learning. To leverage this insight, we introduce data selection based on data's Predictive strength (Preselect), a lightweight and efficient data selection method that requires training and deploying only a fastText-based scorer. Through comprehensive experiments with 1B and 3B parameter models, we demonstrate that models trained on 30B tokens selected with PreSelect surpasses the performance of a vanilla baseline trained on 300B tokens, achieving a 10x reduction in compute requirements. Furthermore, PreSelect significantly outperforms other competitive data selection baselines, such as DCLM and FineWeb-Edu on a scale of 3B models trained on 100B tokens. We open-source our trained data selection scorer along with the curated datasets at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/PreSelect.

While the field of Quality-Diversity (QD) has grown into a distinct branch of stochastic optimization, a few problems, in particular locomotion and navigation tasks, have become de facto standards. Are such benchmarks sufficient? Are they representative of the key challenges faced by QD algorithms? Do they provide the ability to focus on one particular challenge by properly disentangling it from others? Do they have much predictive power in terms of scalability and generalization? Existing benchmarks are not standardized, and there is currently no MNIST equivalent for QD. Inspired by recent works on Reinforcement Learning benchmarks, we argue that the identification of challenges faced by QD methods and the development of targeted, challenging, scalable but affordable benchmarks is an important step. As an initial effort, we identify three problems that are challenging in sparse reward settings, and propose associated benchmarks: (1) Behavior metric bias, which can result from the use of metrics that do not match the structure of the behavior space. (2) Behavioral Plateaus, with varying characteristics, such that escaping them would require adaptive QD algorithms and (3) Evolvability Traps, where small variations in genotype result in large behavioral changes. The environments that we propose satisfy the properties listed above.

Tabular machine learning presents a paradox: modern models achieve state-of-the-art performance using high-dimensional (high-D), collinear, error-prone data, defying the "Garbage In, Garbage Out" mantra. To help resolve this, we synthesize principles from Information Theory, Latent Factor Models, and Psychometrics, clarifying that predictive robustness arises not solely from data cleanliness, but from the synergy between data architecture and model capacity. Partitioning predictor-space "noise" into "Predictor Error" and "Structural Uncertainty" (informational deficits from stochastic generative mappings), we prove that leveraging high-D sets of error-prone predictors asymptotically overcomes both types of noise, whereas cleaning a low-D set is fundamentally bounded by Structural Uncertainty. We demonstrate why "Informative Collinearity" (dependencies from shared latent causes) enhances reliability and convergence efficiency, and explain why increased dimensionality reduces the latent inference burden, enabling feasibility with finite samples. To address practical constraints, we propose "Proactive Data-Centric AI" to identify predictors that enable robustness efficiently. We also derive boundaries for Systematic Error Regimes and show why models that absorb "rogue" dependencies can mitigate assumption violations. Linking latent architecture to Benign Overfitting, we offer a first step towards a unified view of robustness to Outcome Error and predictor-space noise, while also delineating when traditional DCAI's focus on label cleaning remains powerful. By redefining data quality from item-level perfection to portfolio-level architecture, we provide a theoretical rationale for "Local Factories" -- learning from live, uncurated enterprise "data swamps" -- supporting a deployment paradigm shift from "Model Transfer" to "Methodology Transfer'' to overcome static generalizability limitations.

Automated machine learning (AutoML) systems commonly ensemble models post hoc to improve predictive performance, typically via greedy ensemble selection (GES). However, we believe that GES may not always be optimal, as it performs a simple deterministic greedy search. In this work, we introduce two novel population-based ensemble selection methods, QO-ES and QDO-ES, and compare them to GES. While QO-ES optimises solely for predictive performance, QDO-ES also considers the diversity of ensembles within the population, maintaining a diverse set of well-performing ensembles during optimisation based on ideas of quality diversity optimisation. The methods are evaluated using 71 classification datasets from the AutoML benchmark, demonstrating that QO-ES and QDO-ES often outrank GES, albeit only statistically significant on validation data. Our results further suggest that diversity can be beneficial for post hoc ensembling but also increases the risk of overfitting.

Sleep quality is influenced by a complex interplay of behavioral, environmental, and psychosocial factors, yet most computational studies focus mainly on predictive risk identification rather than actionable intervention design. Although machine learning models can accurately predict subjective sleep outcomes, they rarely translate predictive insights into practical intervention strategies. To address this gap, we propose a personalized predictive-prescriptive framework that integrates interpretable machine learning with mixed-integer optimization. A supervised classifier trained on survey data predicts sleep quality, while SHAP-based feature attribution quantifies the influence of modifiable factors. These importance measures are incorporated into a mixed-integer optimization model that identifies minimal and feasible behavioral adjustments, while modelling resistance to change through a penalty mechanism. The framework achieves strong predictive performance, with a test F1-score of 0.9544 and an accuracy of 0.9366. Sensitivity and Pareto analyses reveal a clear trade-off between expected improvement and intervention intensity, with diminishing returns as additional changes are introduced. At the individual level, the model generates concise recommendations, often suggesting one or two high-impact behavioral adjustments and sometimes recommending no change when expected gains are minimal. By integrating prediction, explanation, and constrained optimization, this framework demonstrates how data-driven insights can be translated into structured and personalized decision support for sleep improvement.

Recent approaches representing 3D objects and scenes using Gaussian splats show increased rendering speed across a variety of platforms and devices. While rendering such representations is indeed extremely efficient, storing and transmitting them is often prohibitively expensive. To represent large-scale scenes, one often needs to store millions of 3D Gaussians, occupying gigabytes of disk space. This poses a very practical limitation, prohibiting widespread adoption.Several solutions have been proposed to strike a balance between disk size and rendering quality, noticeably reducing the visual quality. In this work, we propose a new representation that dramatically reduces the hard drive footprint while featuring similar or improved quality when compared to the standard 3D Gaussian splats. When compared to other compact solutions, ours offers higher quality renderings with significantly reduced storage, being able to efficiently run on a mobile device in real-time. Our key observation is that nearby points in the scene can share similar representations. Hence, only a small ratio of 3D points needs to be stored. We introduce an approach to identify such points which are called parent points. The discarded points called children points along with attributes can be efficiently predicted by tiny MLPs.

This work proposes a new data-driven model devised to integrate process knowledge into its structure to increase the human-machine synergy in the process industry. The proposed Contextual Mixture of Experts (cMoE) explicitly uses process knowledge along the model learning stage to mold the historical data to represent operators' context related to the process through possibility distributions. This model was evaluated in two real case studies for quality prediction, including a sulfur recovery unit and a polymerization process. The contextual mixture of experts was employed to represent different contexts in both experiments. The results indicate that integrating process knowledge has increased predictive performance while improving interpretability by providing insights into the variables affecting the process's different regimes.

As opposed to human drivers, current autonomous driving systems still require vast amounts of labeled data to train. Recently, world models have been proposed to simultaneously enhance autonomous driving capabilities by improving the way these systems understand complex real-world environments and reduce their data demands via self-supervised pre-training. In this paper, we present AD-L-JEPA (aka Autonomous Driving with LiDAR data via a Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture), a novel self-supervised pre-training framework for autonomous driving with LiDAR data that, as opposed to existing methods, is neither generative nor contrastive. Our method learns spatial world models with a joint embedding predictive architecture. Instead of explicitly generating masked unknown regions, our self-supervised world models predict Bird's Eye View (BEV) embeddings to represent the diverse nature of autonomous driving scenes. Our approach furthermore eliminates the need to manually create positive and negative pairs, as is the case in contrastive learning. AD-L-JEPA leads to simpler implementation and enhanced learned representations. We qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrate high-quality of embeddings learned with AD-L-JEPA. We furthermore evaluate the accuracy and label efficiency of AD-L-JEPA on popular downstream tasks such as LiDAR 3D object detection and associated transfer learning. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates that AD-L-JEPA is a plausible approach for self-supervised pre-training in autonomous driving applications and is the best available approach outperforming SOTA, including most recently proposed Occupancy-MAE [1] and ALSO [2]. The source code of AD-L-JEPA is available at https://github.com/HaoranZhuExplorer/AD-L-JEPA-Release.

Accurate and transparent financial information disclosure is essential in accounting and finance, fostering trust and enabling informed investment decisions that drive economic development. Among many information disclosure platforms, the Chinese stock exchanges' investor interactive platform provides a novel and interactive way for listed firms to disclose information of interest to investors through an online question-and-answer (Q&A) format. However, it is common for listed firms to respond to questions with limited or no substantive information, and automatically evaluating the quality of financial information disclosure on large amounts of Q&A pairs is challenging. In this study, our interdisciplinary team of AI and finance professionals proposed FinTruthQA, a benchmark designed to evaluate advanced natural language processing (NLP) techniques for the automatic quality assessment of information disclosure in financial Q&A data. It comprises 6,000 real-world financial Q&A entries and each Q&A was manually annotated based on four key evaluation criteria. We benchmarked various NLP techniques on FinTruthQA, including large language models(LLMs). Experiments showed that existing NLP models have strong predictive ability for question identification and question relevance tasks, but are suboptimal for answer readability and answer relevance tasks. By establishing this benchmark, we provide a robust foundation for the automatic evaluation of information disclosure, demonstrating how AI can be leveraged for social good by promoting transparency, fairness, and investor protection in financial disclosure practices. FinTruthQA can be used by auditors, regulators, and financial analysts for real-time monitoring and data-driven decision-making, as well as by researchers for advanced studies in accounting and finance, ultimately fostering greater trust and efficiency in the financial markets.

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

Human observers can learn to recognize new categories of images from a handful of examples, yet doing so with artificial ones remains an open challenge. We hypothesize that data-efficient recognition is enabled by representations which make the variability in natural signals more predictable. We therefore revisit and improve Contrastive Predictive Coding, an unsupervised objective for learning such representations. This new implementation produces features which support state-of-the-art linear classification accuracy on the ImageNet dataset. When used as input for non-linear classification with deep neural networks, this representation allows us to use 2-5x less labels than classifiers trained directly on image pixels. Finally, this unsupervised representation substantially improves transfer learning to object detection on the PASCAL VOC dataset, surpassing fully supervised pre-trained ImageNet classifiers.

In this paper, we introduce the first large-scale video prediction model in the autonomous driving discipline. To eliminate the restriction of high-cost data collection and empower the generalization ability of our model, we acquire massive data from the web and pair it with diverse and high-quality text descriptions. The resultant dataset accumulates over 2000 hours of driving videos, spanning areas all over the world with diverse weather conditions and traffic scenarios. Inheriting the merits from recent latent diffusion models, our model, dubbed GenAD, handles the challenging dynamics in driving scenes with novel temporal reasoning blocks. We showcase that it can generalize to various unseen driving datasets in a zero-shot manner, surpassing general or driving-specific video prediction counterparts. Furthermore, GenAD can be adapted into an action-conditioned prediction model or a motion planner, holding great potential for real-world driving applications.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) re-encode the entire prefix at every denoising step, causing recomputation that scales quadratically with context length and becomes prohibitive for long-context scenarios. We propose Prefilling-dLLM, a training-free prefill-decode disaggregation framework for dLLMs that partitions the prefix into N chunks, caches their KV representations once, and selects the top-K most relevant chunks with intra-chunk token sparsity for decoding, showing that sparse prefilling can outperform dense attention while reducing per-step complexity from quadratic in the full sequence length to quadratic only in the decode length. On LongBench and InfiniteBench, Prefilling-dLLM achieves state-of-the-art quality among dLLM acceleration methods, and an attention kernel that parallelizes decoding over the non-contiguously cached chunk KV yields 9.1--28.0x speedup at 8K--32K contexts. We further show that beginning-of-sequence tokens prepended to each chunk act as periodic attention anchors that eliminate the lost-in-the-middle phenomenon. Code is available at https://github.com/menik1126/Prefilling-dLLM.

In this paper, we present SCOREQ, a novel approach for speech quality prediction. SCOREQ is a triplet loss function for contrastive regression that addresses the domain generalisation shortcoming exhibited by state of the art no-reference speech quality metrics. In the paper we: (i) illustrate the problem of L2 loss training failing at capturing the continuous nature of the mean opinion score (MOS) labels; (ii) demonstrate the lack of generalisation through a benchmarking evaluation across several speech domains; (iii) outline our approach and explore the impact of the architectural design decisions through incremental evaluation; (iv) evaluate the final model against state of the art models for a wide variety of data and domains. The results show that the lack of generalisation observed in state of the art speech quality metrics is addressed by SCOREQ. We conclude that using a triplet loss function for contrastive regression improves generalisation for speech quality prediction models but also has potential utility across a wide range of applications using regression-based predictive models.

We introduce the AIM 2024 UHD-IQA Challenge, a competition to advance the No-Reference Image Quality Assessment (NR-IQA) task for modern, high-resolution photos. The challenge is based on the recently released UHD-IQA Benchmark Database, which comprises 6,073 UHD-1 (4K) images annotated with perceptual quality ratings from expert raters. Unlike previous NR-IQA datasets, UHD-IQA focuses on highly aesthetic photos of superior technical quality, reflecting the ever-increasing standards of digital photography. This challenge aims to develop efficient and effective NR-IQA models. Participants are tasked with creating novel architectures and training strategies to achieve high predictive performance on UHD-1 images within a computational budget of 50G MACs. This enables model deployment on edge devices and scalable processing of extensive image collections. Winners are determined based on a combination of performance metrics, including correlation measures (SRCC, PLCC, KRCC), absolute error metrics (MAE, RMSE), and computational efficiency (G MACs). To excel in this challenge, participants leverage techniques like knowledge distillation, low-precision inference, and multi-scale training. By pushing the boundaries of NR-IQA for high-resolution photos, the UHD-IQA Challenge aims to stimulate the development of practical models that can keep pace with the rapidly evolving landscape of digital photography. The innovative solutions emerging from this competition will have implications for various applications, from photo curation and enhancement to image compression.

Feed-forward 3D Gaussian Splatting methods enable single-pass reconstruction and real-time rendering. However, they typically adopt rigid pixel-to-Gaussian or voxel-to-Gaussian pipelines that uniformly allocate Gaussians, leading to redundant Gaussians across views. Moreover, they lack an effective mechanism to control the total number of Gaussians while maintaining reconstruction fidelity. To address these limitations, we present F4Splat, which performs Feed-Forward predictive densification for Feed-Forward 3D Gaussian Splatting, introducing a densification-score-guided allocation strategy that adaptively distributes Gaussians according to spatial complexity and multi-view overlap. Our model predicts per-region densification scores to estimate the required Gaussian density and allows explicit control over the final Gaussian budget without retraining. This spatially adaptive allocation reduces redundancy in simple regions and minimizes duplicate Gaussians across overlapping views, producing compact yet high-quality 3D representations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model achieves superior novel-view synthesis performance compared to prior uncalibrated feed-forward methods, while using significantly fewer Gaussians.

Most vehicle predictive maintenance systems rely exclusively on internal diagnostic signals and are validated on deterministic synthetic data, limiting the credibility of reported metrics. This paper presents a simulation-validated proof-of-concept framework for V2X-augmented predictive maintenance, integrating on-board sensor streams with external contextual signals -- road quality, weather, traffic density, and driver behaviour -- acquired via V2X communication and third-party APIs, with inference at the vehicle edge. Field validation on instrumented vehicles is identified as the required next step. Three experiments address common shortcomings of prior work. A feature group ablation study shows that V2X contextual features contribute a 2.6-point F1 gain, with full context removal reducing macro F1 from 0.855 to 0.807. On the AI4I 2020 real-world industrial failure dataset (10,000 samples, five failure modes), LightGBM achieves AUC-ROC of 0.973 under 5-fold stratified CV with SMOTE confined to training folds. A noise sensitivity analysis shows macro F1 remains above 0.88 under low noise and degrades to 0.74 under very high noise. SHAP analysis confirms that V2X and engineered interaction features rank among the top 15 predictors. Edge inference is estimated to reduce latency from 3.5s to under 1.0s versus cloud-only processing.

It is well known that the reconstruction FID (rFID) of a VAE is poorly correlated with the generation FID (gFID) of a latent diffusion model. We propose interpolated FID (iFID), a simple variant of rFID that exhibits a strong correlation with gFID. Specifically, for each element in the dataset, we retrieve its nearest neighbor (NN) in the latent space and interpolate their latent representations. We then decode the interpolated latent and compute the FID between the decoded samples and the original dataset. Additionally, we refine the claim that rFID correlates poorly with gFID, by showing that rFID correlates with sample quality in the diffusion refinement phase, whereas iFID correlates with sample quality in the diffusion navigation phase. Furthermore, we provide an explanation for why iFID correlates well with gFID, and why reconstruction metrics are negatively correlated with gFID, by connecting to results in the diffusion generalization and hallucination. Empirically, iFID is the first metric to demonstrate a strong correlation with diffusion gFID, achieving Pearson linear and Spearman rank correlations approximately 0.85. The source code is provided in https://github.com/tongdaxu/Making-rFID-Predictive-of-Diffusion-gFID.

Embodied Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning has significantly enhanced Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, yet current methods rely on rigid templates to specify reasoning primitives (e.g., objects in the scene, high-level plans, structural affordances). These templates can force policies to process irrelevant information that distracts from critical action-prediction signals. This creates a bottleneck: without successful policies, we cannot verify reasoning quality; without quality reasoning, we cannot build robust policies. We introduce R&B-EnCoRe, which enables models to bootstrap embodied reasoning from internet-scale knowledge through self-supervised refinement. By treating reasoning as a latent variable within importance-weighted variational inference, models can generate and distill a refined reasoning training dataset of embodiment-specific strategies without external rewards, verifiers, or human annotation. We validate R&B-EnCoRe across manipulation (Franka Panda in simulation, WidowX in hardware), legged navigation (bipedal, wheeled, bicycle, quadruped), and autonomous driving embodiments using various VLA architectures with 1B, 4B, 7B, and 30B parameters. Our approach achieves 28% gains in manipulation success, 101% improvement in navigation scores, and 21% reduction in collision-rate metric over models that indiscriminately reason about all available primitives. R&B-EnCoRe enables models to distill reasoning that is predictive of successful control, bypassing manual annotation engineering while grounding internet-scale knowledge in physical execution.

Word-by-word language model surprisal is often used to model the incremental processing of human readers, which raises questions about how various choices in language modeling influence its predictive power. One factor that has been overlooked in cognitive modeling is the granularity of subword tokens, which explicitly encodes information about word length and frequency, and ultimately influences the quality of vector representations that are learned. This paper presents experiments that manipulate the token granularity and evaluate its impact on the ability of surprisal to account for processing difficulty of naturalistic text and garden-path constructions. Experiments with naturalistic reading times reveal a substantial influence of token granularity on surprisal, with tokens defined by a vocabulary size of 8,000 resulting in surprisal that is most predictive. In contrast, on garden-path constructions, language models trained on coarser-grained tokens generally assigned higher surprisal to critical regions, suggesting their increased sensitivity to syntax. Taken together, these results suggest a large role of token granularity on the quality of language model surprisal for cognitive modeling.

Image inpainting aims to fill missing pixels in damaged images and has achieved significant progress with cut-edging learning techniques. Nevertheless, state-of-the-art inpainting methods are mainly designed for nature images and cannot correctly recover text within scene text images, and training existing models on the scene text images cannot fix the issues. In this work, we identify the visual-text inpainting task to achieve high-quality scene text image restoration and text completion: Given a scene text image with unknown missing regions and the corresponding text with unknown missing characters, we aim to complete the missing information in both images and text by leveraging their complementary information. Intuitively, the input text, even if damaged, contains language priors of the contents within the images and can guide the image inpainting. Meanwhile, the scene text image includes the appearance cues of the characters that could benefit text recovery. To this end, we design the cross-modal predictive interaction (CLII) model containing two branches, i.e., ImgBranch and TxtBranch, for scene text inpainting and text completion, respectively while leveraging their complementary effectively. Moreover, we propose to embed our model into the SOTA scene text spotting method and significantly enhance its robustness against missing pixels, which demonstrates the practicality of the newly developed task. To validate the effectiveness of our method, we construct three real datasets based on existing text-related datasets, containing 1838 images and covering three scenarios with curved, incidental, and styled texts, and conduct extensive experiments to show that our method outperforms baselines significantly.

Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) have emerged as a powerful framework for learning general-purpose representations. However, these models often lack interpretability and suffer from inefficiencies due to dense embedding representations. We propose SparseJEPA, an extension that integrates sparse representation learning into the JEPA framework to enhance the quality of learned representations. SparseJEPA employs a penalty method that encourages latent space variables to be shared among data features with strong semantic relationships, while maintaining predictive performance. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SparseJEPA by training on the CIFAR-100 dataset and pre-training a lightweight Vision Transformer. The improved embeddings are utilized in linear-probe transfer learning for both image classification and low-level tasks, showcasing the architecture's versatility across different transfer tasks. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical proof that demonstrates that the grouping mechanism enhances representation quality. This was done by displaying that grouping reduces Multiinformation among latent-variables, including proofing the Data Processing Inequality for Multiinformation. Our results indicate that incorporating sparsity not only refines the latent space but also facilitates the learning of more meaningful and interpretable representations. In further work, hope to further extend this method by finding new ways to leverage the grouping mechanism through object-centric representation learning.

Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) have shown substantial promise in self-supervised representation learning, yet their application in generative modeling remains underexplored. Conversely, diffusion models have demonstrated significant efficacy in modeling arbitrary probability distributions. In this paper, we introduce Denoising with a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (D-JEPA), pioneering the integration of JEPA within generative modeling. By recognizing JEPA as a form of masked image modeling, we reinterpret it as a generalized next-token prediction strategy, facilitating data generation in an auto-regressive manner. Furthermore, we incorporate diffusion loss to model the per-token probability distribution, enabling data generation in a continuous space. We also adapt flow matching loss as an alternative to diffusion loss, thereby enhancing the flexibility of D-JEPA. Empirically, with increased GFLOPs, D-JEPA consistently achieves lower FID scores with fewer training epochs, indicating its good scalability. Our base, large, and huge models outperform all previous generative models across all scales on class-conditional ImageNet benchmarks. Beyond image generation, D-JEPA is well-suited for other continuous data modeling, including video and audio.

The growing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data has the potential to build a foundation model through Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods, which can achieve various SAR Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) tasks with pre-training in large-scale unlabeled data and fine-tuning in small labeled samples. SSL aims to construct supervision signals directly from the data, which minimizes the need for expensive expert annotation and maximizes the use of the expanding data pool for a foundational model. This study investigates an effective SSL method for SAR ATR, which can pave the way for a foundation model in SAR ATR. The primary obstacles faced in SSL for SAR ATR are the small targets in remote sensing and speckle noise in SAR images, corresponding to the SSL approach and signals. To overcome these challenges, we present a novel Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for SAR ATR (SAR-JEPA), which leverages local masked patches to predict the multi-scale SAR gradient representations of unseen context. The key aspect of SAR-JEPA is integrating SAR domain features to ensure high-quality self-supervised signals as target features. Besides, we employ local masks and multi-scale features to accommodate the various small targets in remote sensing. By fine-tuning and evaluating our framework on three target recognition datasets (vehicle, ship, and aircraft) with four other datasets as pre-training, we demonstrate its outperformance over other SSL methods and its effectiveness with increasing SAR data. This study showcases the potential of SSL for SAR target recognition across diverse targets, scenes, and sensors.Our codes and weights are available in \url{https://github.com/waterdisappear/SAR-JEPA.

Packet loss concealment (PLC) is a tool for enhancing speech degradation caused by poor network conditions or underflow/overflow in audio processing pipelines. We propose a real-time recurrent method that leverages previous outputs to mitigate artefact of lost packets without the prior knowledge of loss mask. The proposed full-band recurrent network (FRN) model operates at 48 kHz, which is suitable for high-quality telecommunication applications. Experiment results highlight the superiority of FRN over an offline non-causal baseline and a top performer in a recent PLC challenge.

This study investigates the feasibility and performance of federated learning (FL) for multi-label ICD code classification using clinical notes from the MIMIC-IV dataset. Unlike previous approaches that rely on centralized training or fine-tuned large language models, we propose a lightweight and scalable pipeline combining frozen text embeddings with simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) classifiers. This design offers a privacy-preserving and deployment-efficient alternative for clinical NLP applications, particularly suited to distributed healthcare settings. Extensive experiments across both centralized and federated configurations were conducted, testing six publicly available embedding models from Massive Text Embedding Benchmark leaderboard and three MLP classifier architectures under two medical coding (ICD-9 and ICD-10). Additionally, ablation studies over ten random stratified splits assess performance stability. Results show that embedding quality substantially outweighs classifier complexity in determining predictive performance, and that federated learning can closely match centralized results in idealized conditions. While the models are orders of magnitude smaller than state-of-the-art architectures and achieved competitive micro and macro F1 scores, limitations remain including the lack of end-to-end training and the simplified FL assumptions. Nevertheless, this work demonstrates a viable way toward scalable, privacy-conscious medical coding systems and offers a step toward for future research into federated, domain-adaptive clinical AI.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive quality when applied to predictive tasks such as relevance ranking and semantic search. However, deployment of such LLMs remains prohibitively expensive for industry applications with strict latency and throughput requirements. In this work, we present lessons and efficiency insights from developing a purely text-based decoder-only Small Language Model (SLM) for a semantic search application at LinkedIn. Particularly, we discuss model compression techniques such as pruning that allow us to reduce the model size by up to 40% while maintaining the accuracy. Additionally, we present context compression techniques that allow us to reduce the input context length by up to 10x with minimal loss of accuracy. Finally, we present practical lessons from optimizing the serving infrastructure for deploying such a system on GPUs at scale, serving millions of requests per second. Taken together, this allows us to increase our system's throughput by 10x in a real-world deployment, while meeting our quality bar.

Frontier LLMs now perform strongly across a wide range of physics evaluations, but it is hard to disentangle genuine reasoning from recall of established science. We introduce DiscoverPhysics, an interactive benchmark that asks a LLM agent to discover the laws of motion of a simulated world whose physics deliberately deviates from our own. We construct 22 worlds governed by, among others, screened and fractional-power gravity, multi-species couplings, hidden dark-matter-like particles, non-coordinate-free physics, and time-varying interactions. Each world is generated on demand by an N-body simulator, for which the agent proposes several rounds of experiments, observes raw trajectory data, and ultimately submits both a natural-language explanation of the world's physics and a Python implementation of the inferred law. Because solving a world requires the agent to design informative experiments and revise its hypotheses, the benchmark probes long-horizon reasoning over an experimental history. We evaluate submissions along two complementary axes: trajectory MSE on held-out particles and an LLM-judged explanation score following an expert-written rubric assessing conceptual understanding of each world. Across eleven frontier models, we find that the strongest agents pass only half of the worlds and consistently fail on those where latent structure must be uncovered. Open-source models lag substantially behind commercial models, both in their ability to design informative experiments and in extracting conclusions from the data. We further find that good predictive accuracy does not guarantee high explanation quality and that conceptual understanding depends on hypothesis refinement through well-chosen experiments.

Diffusion models have shown a great ability at bridging the performance gap between predictive and generative approaches for speech enhancement. We have shown that they may even outperform their predictive counterparts for non-additive corruption types or when they are evaluated on mismatched conditions. However, diffusion models suffer from a high computational burden, mainly as they require to run a neural network for each reverse diffusion step, whereas predictive approaches only require one pass. As diffusion models are generative approaches they may also produce vocalizing and breathing artifacts in adverse conditions. In comparison, in such difficult scenarios, predictive models typically do not produce such artifacts but tend to distort the target speech instead, thereby degrading the speech quality. In this work, we present a stochastic regeneration approach where an estimate given by a predictive model is provided as a guide for further diffusion. We show that the proposed approach uses the predictive model to remove the vocalizing and breathing artifacts while producing very high quality samples thanks to the diffusion model, even in adverse conditions. We further show that this approach enables to use lighter sampling schemes with fewer diffusion steps without sacrificing quality, thus lifting the computational burden by an order of magnitude. Source code and audio examples are available online (https://uhh.de/inf-sp-storm).

Flight diversions are rare but high-impact events in aviation, making their reliable prediction vital for both safety and operational efficiency. However, their scarcity in historical records impedes the training of machine learning models utilised to predict them. This study addresses this scarcity gap by investigating how generative models can augment historical flight data with synthetic diversion records to enhance model training and improve predictive accuracy. We propose a multi-objective optimisation framework coupled with automated hyperparameter search to identify optimal configurations for three deep generative models: Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE), Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN), and CopulaGAN, with the Gaussian Copula (GC) model serving as a statistical baseline. The quality of the synthetic data was examined through a six-stage evaluation framework encompassing realism, diversity, operational validity, statistical similarity, fidelity, and predictive utility. Results show that the optimised models significantly outperform their non-optimised counterparts, and that synthetic augmentation substantially improves diversion prediction compared to models trained solely on real data. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of hyperparameter-optimised generative models for advancing predictive modelling of rare events in air transportation.

Thousands of diverse benchmarks have been developed to measure the quality of large language models (LLMs). Yet prior work has demonstrated that LLM performance is often sufficiently explained by a small set of latent factors, or abilities. This suggests the potential for more efficient and principled benchmarking, but it remains difficult to compare the quality of different methods. Motivated by predictive validity, we argue that the quality of a benchmarking framework should be grounded in how efficiently it enables the prediction of model performance on unseen tasks. To analyze this objective, we collect the "Wide-scale Item Level Dataset" (WILD), a dataset of item-model response pairs, comprising evaluations of 65 models on 109,564 unique items spanning 163 tasks drawn from 27 datasets. This dataset enables the first analysis of how different techniques can predict a model's performance on a large, diverse collection of unseen tasks under different budget constraints. We demonstrate that combining a modified multidimensional item response theory (IRT) model with adaptive item selection driven by optimal experimental design can predict performance on 112 held-out benchmark tasks with a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 7%, and can do so after observing only 16 items. We further demonstrate that incorporating cost-aware discount factors into our selection criteria can reduce the total tokens needed to reach 7% MAE from 141,000 tokens to only 22,000, an 85% reduction in evaluation cost.

Formula alpha mining, which generates predictive signals from financial data, is critical for quantitative investment. Although various algorithmic approaches-such as genetic programming, reinforcement learning, and large language models-have significantly expanded the capacity for alpha discovery, systematic evaluation remains a key challenge. Existing evaluation metrics predominantly include backtesting and correlation-based measures. Backtesting is computationally intensive, inherently sequential, and sensitive to specific strategy parameters. Correlation-based metrics, though efficient, assess only predictive ability and overlook other crucial properties such as temporal stability, robustness, diversity, and interpretability. Additionally, the closed-source nature of most existing alpha mining models hinders reproducibility and slows progress in this field. To address these issues, we propose AlphaEval, a unified, parallelizable, and backtest-free evaluation framework for automated alpha mining models. AlphaEval assesses the overall quality of generated alphas along five complementary dimensions: predictive power, stability, robustness to market perturbations, financial logic, and diversity. Extensive experiments across representative alpha mining algorithms demonstrate that AlphaEval achieves evaluation consistency comparable to comprehensive backtesting, while providing more comprehensive insights and higher efficiency. Furthermore, AlphaEval effectively identifies superior alphas compared to traditional single-metric screening approaches. All implementations and evaluation tools are open-sourced to promote reproducibility and community engagement.

In this research, I explore advanced deep learning methodologies to forecast the outcomes of the 2025 NCAA Division 1 Men's and Women's Basketball tournaments. Leveraging historical NCAA game data, I implement two sophisticated sequence-based models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Transformer architectures. The predictive power of these models is augmented through comprehensive feature engineering, including team quality metrics derived from Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Elo ratings, seed differences, and aggregated box-score statistics. To evaluate the robustness and reliability of predictions, I train each model variant using both Binary Cross-Entropy (BCE) and Brier loss functions, providing insights into classification performance and probability calibration. My comparative analysis reveals that while the Transformer architecture optimized with BCE yields superior discriminative power (highest AUC of 0.8473), the LSTM model trained with Brier loss demonstrates superior probabilistic calibration (lowest Brier score of 0.1589). These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate model architectures and loss functions based on the specific requirements of forecasting tasks. The detailed analytical pipeline presented here serves as a reproducible framework for future predictive modeling tasks in sports analytics and beyond.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

Clinical information extraction, which involves structuring clinical concepts from unstructured medical text, remains a challenging problem that could benefit from the inclusion of tabular background information available in electronic health records. Existing open-source datasets lack explicit links between structured features and clinical concepts in the text, motivating the need for a new research dataset. We introduce SimSUM, a benchmark dataset of 10,000 simulated patient records that link unstructured clinical notes with structured background variables. Each record simulates a patient encounter in the domain of respiratory diseases and includes tabular data (e.g., symptoms, diagnoses, underlying conditions) generated from a Bayesian network whose structure and parameters are defined by domain experts. A large language model (GPT-4o) is prompted to generate a clinical note describing the encounter, including symptoms and relevant context. These notes are annotated with span-level symptom mentions. We conduct an expert evaluation to assess note quality and run baseline predictive models on both the tabular and textual data. The SimSUM dataset is primarily designed to support research on clinical information extraction in the presence of tabular background variables, which can be linked through domain knowledge to concepts of interest to be extracted from the text -- namely, symptoms in the case of SimSUM. Secondary uses include research on the automation of clinical reasoning over both tabular data and text, causal effect estimation in the presence of tabular and/or textual confounders, and multi-modal synthetic data generation. SimSUM is not intended for training clinical decision support systems or production-grade models, but rather to facilitate reproducible research in a simplified and controlled setting.

We introduce Timer-S1, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) time series foundation model with 8.3B total parameters, 0.75B activated parameters for each token, and a context length of 11.5K. To overcome the scalability bottleneck in existing pre-trained time series foundation models, we perform Serial Scaling in three dimensions: model architecture, dataset, and training pipeline. Timer-S1 integrates sparse TimeMoE blocks and generic TimeSTP blocks for Serial-Token Prediction (STP), a generic training objective that adheres to the serial nature of forecasting. The proposed paradigm introduces serial computations to improve long-term predictions while avoiding costly rolling-style inference and pronounced error accumulation in the standard next-token prediction. Pursuing a high-quality and unbiased training dataset, we curate TimeBench, a corpus with one trillion time points, and apply meticulous data augmentation to mitigate predictive bias. We further pioneer a post-training stage, including continued pre-training and long-context extension, to enhance short-term and long-context performance. Evaluated on the large-scale GIFT-Eval leaderboard, Timer-S1 achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, attaining the best MASE and CRPS scores as a pre-trained model. Timer-S1 will be released to facilitate further research.

Robust control policy learning for autonomous driving requires training environments to be both physically realistic and computationally scalable, properties that existing simulators provide only in isolation. We introduce Sim2Sim2Sim, a framework that bridges high-fidelity vehicle simulation and scalable reinforcement learning by distilling simulator dynamics into a highly parallelizable learned dynamics model. By training control policies purely within this distilled environment and deploying them back into the high-fidelity source simulator, we demonstrate more efficient policy optimization and reliable transfer under challenging dynamics. We further show that predictive accuracy alone does not fully characterize a learned dynamics model's suitability as a reinforcement learning training environment, which should also be assessed by the quality of the policies it enables.

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the NeuroPiano dataset, which comprise 104 audio recordings of student piano performances accompanied with 2255 textual feedback and ratings given by professional pianists. We offer a statistical overview of the dataset, focusing on the standardization of annotations and inter-annotator agreement across 12 evaluative questions concerning performance quality. We also explore the predictive relationship between audio features and teacher ratings via machine learning, as well as annotations provided for text analysis of the responses.

We propose a new graph neural network (GNN) module, based on relaxations of recently proposed geometric scattering transforms, which consist of a cascade of graph wavelet filters. Our learnable geometric scattering (LEGS) module enables adaptive tuning of the wavelets to encourage band-pass features to emerge in learned representations. The incorporation of our LEGS-module in GNNs enables the learning of longer-range graph relations compared to many popular GNNs, which often rely on encoding graph structure via smoothness or similarity between neighbors. Further, its wavelet priors result in simplified architectures with significantly fewer learned parameters compared to competing GNNs. We demonstrate the predictive performance of LEGS-based networks on graph classification benchmarks, as well as the descriptive quality of their learned features in biochemical graph data exploration tasks. Our results show that LEGS-based networks match or outperforms popular GNNs, as well as the original geometric scattering construction, on many datasets, in particular in biochemical domains, while retaining certain mathematical properties of handcrafted (non-learned) geometric scattering.

Large language models (LLMs) can suffer from hallucinations when generating text. These hallucinations impede various applications in society and industry by making LLMs untrustworthy. Current LLMs generate text in an autoregressive fashion by predicting and appending text tokens. When an LLM is uncertain about the semantic meaning of the next tokens to generate, it is likely to start hallucinating. Thus, it has been suggested that hallucinations stem from predictive uncertainty. We introduce Semantically Diverse Language Generation (SDLG) to quantify predictive uncertainty in LLMs. SDLG steers the LLM to generate semantically diverse yet likely alternatives for an initially generated text. This approach provides a precise measure of aleatoric semantic uncertainty, detecting whether the initial text is likely to be hallucinated. Experiments on question-answering tasks demonstrate that SDLG consistently outperforms existing methods while being the most computationally efficient, setting a new standard for uncertainty estimation in LLMs.

Scientific discoveries must be communicated clearly to realize their full potential. Without effective communication, even the most groundbreaking findings risk being overlooked or misunderstood. The primary way scientists communicate their work and receive feedback from the community is through peer review. However, the current system often provides inconsistent feedback between reviewers, ultimately hindering the improvement of a manuscript and limiting its potential impact. In this paper, we introduce a novel method APRES powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) to update a scientific papers text based on an evaluation rubric. Our automated method discovers a rubric that is highly predictive of future citation counts, and integrate it with APRES in an automated system that revises papers to enhance their quality and impact. Crucially, this objective should be met without altering the core scientific content. We demonstrate the success of APRES, which improves future citation prediction by 19.6% in mean averaged error over the next best baseline, and show that our paper revision process yields papers that are preferred over the originals by human expert evaluators 79% of the time. Our findings provide strong empirical support for using LLMs as a tool to help authors stress-test their manuscripts before submission. Ultimately, our work seeks to augment, not replace, the essential role of human expert reviewers, for it should be humans who discern which discoveries truly matter, guiding science toward advancing knowledge and enriching lives.

We show that the effectiveness of the well celebrated Mixup [Zhang et al., 2018] can be further improved if instead of using it as the sole learning objective, it is utilized as an additional regularizer to the standard cross-entropy loss. This simple change not only provides much improved accuracy but also significantly improves the quality of the predictive uncertainty estimation of Mixup in most cases under various forms of covariate shifts and out-of-distribution detection experiments. In fact, we observe that Mixup yields much degraded performance on detecting out-of-distribution samples possibly, as we show empirically, because of its tendency to learn models that exhibit high-entropy throughout; making it difficult to differentiate in-distribution samples from out-distribution ones. To show the efficacy of our approach (RegMixup), we provide thorough analyses and experiments on vision datasets (ImageNet & CIFAR-10/100) and compare it with a suite of recent approaches for reliable uncertainty estimation.

Expected goals (xG) models estimate the probability that a shot results in a goal from its context (e.g., location, pressure), but they operate only on observed shots. We propose xG+, a possession-level framework that first estimates the probability that a shot occurs within the next second and its corresponding xG if it were to occur. We also introduce ways to aggregate this joint probability estimate over the course of a possession. By jointly modeling shot-taking behavior and shot quality, xG+ remedies the conditioning-on-shots limitation of standard xG. We show that this improves predictive accuracy at the team level and produces a more persistent player skill signal than standard xG models.

Existing evaluations of foundation models, including recent human-centric approaches, fail to capture what truly matters: user's experience during interaction. Current methods treat evaluation as a matter of output correctness alone, overlooking that user satisfaction emerges from the interplay between response quality and interaction, which limits their ability to account for the mechanisms underlying user experience. To address this gap, we introduce QoNext, the first framework that adapts Quality of Experience (QoE) principles from networking and multimedia to the assessment of foundation models. QoNext identifies experiential factors that shape user experience and incorporates them into controlled experiments, where human ratings are collected under varied configurations. From these studies we construct a QoE-oriented database and train predictive models that estimate perceived user experience from measurable system parameters. Our results demonstrate that QoNext not only enables proactive and fine-grained evaluation but also provides actionable guidance for productized services of optimizing foundation models in practice.

Distilling large reasoning models is essential for making Long-CoT reasoning practical, as full-scale inference remains computationally prohibitive. Existing curation-based approaches select complete reasoning traces post-hoc, overlooking collaboration among heterogeneous teachers and lacking dynamic exploration, which leads to redundant sampling and missed complementary reasoning. We introduce CoRD, a collaborative multi-teacher decoding framework that performs step-wise reasoning synthesis guided by predictive perplexity-based scoring and beam search. This enables heterogeneous LRMs to jointly construct coherent reasoning trajectories while efficiently preserving diverse, high-potential hypotheses. Experiments show that CoRD produces higher-quality reasoning data and achieves near teacher-level student performance with fewer, structured supervision signals, without substantial efficiency overhead. CoRD further generalizes well to out-of-domain and open-ended settings. The dataset and model are available at https://github.com/DISL-Lab/CoRD{https://github.com/DISL-Lab/CoRD}.

This paper presents SimCLR: a simple framework for contrastive learning of visual representations. We simplify recently proposed contrastive self-supervised learning algorithms without requiring specialized architectures or a memory bank. In order to understand what enables the contrastive prediction tasks to learn useful representations, we systematically study the major components of our framework. We show that (1) composition of data augmentations plays a critical role in defining effective predictive tasks, (2) introducing a learnable nonlinear transformation between the representation and the contrastive loss substantially improves the quality of the learned representations, and (3) contrastive learning benefits from larger batch sizes and more training steps compared to supervised learning. By combining these findings, we are able to considerably outperform previous methods for self-supervised and semi-supervised learning on ImageNet. A linear classifier trained on self-supervised representations learned by SimCLR achieves 76.5% top-1 accuracy, which is a 7% relative improvement over previous state-of-the-art, matching the performance of a supervised ResNet-50. When fine-tuned on only 1% of the labels, we achieve 85.8% top-5 accuracy, outperforming AlexNet with 100X fewer labels.

Learning manipulable representations of the world and its dynamics is central to AI. Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) offer a promising blueprint, but lack of practical guidance and theory has led to ad-hoc R&D. We present a comprehensive theory of JEPAs and instantiate it in {\bf LeJEPA}, a lean, scalable, and theoretically grounded training objective. First, we identify the isotropic Gaussian as the optimal distribution that JEPAs' embeddings should follow to minimize downstream prediction risk. Second, we introduce a novel objective--{\bf Sketched Isotropic Gaussian Regularization} (SIGReg)--to constrain embeddings to reach that ideal distribution. Combining the JEPA predictive loss with SIGReg yields LeJEPA with numerous theoretical and practical benefits: (i) single trade-off hyperparameter, (ii) linear time and memory complexity, (iii) stability across hyper-parameters, architectures (ResNets, ViTs, ConvNets) and domains, (iv) heuristics-free, e.g., no stop-gradient, no teacher-student, no hyper-parameter schedulers, and (v) distributed training-friendly implementation requiring only approx50 lines of code. Our empirical validation covers 10+ datasets, 60+ architectures, all with varying scales and domains. As an example, using imagenet-1k for pretraining and linear evaluation with frozen backbone, LeJEPA reaches 79\% with a ViT-H/14. We hope that the simplicity and theory-friendly ecosystem offered by LeJEPA will reestablish self-supervised pre-training as a core pillar of AI research (https://github.com/rbalestr-lab/lejepa{GitHub repo}).

Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) offer flexible, non-autoregressive generation, but this freedom introduces a challenge: final output quality is highly sensitive to the decoding order. We are the first to formalize this issue, attributing the variability in output quality to the cumulative predictive uncertainty along a generative path. To quantify this uncertainty, we introduce Denoising Entropy, a computable metric that serves as an internal signal for evaluating generative process. Leveraging this metric, we propose two algorithms designed to optimize the decoding path: a post-hoc selection method and a real-time guidance strategy. Experiments demonstrate that our entropy-guided methods significantly improve generation quality, consistently boosting accuracy on challenging reasoning, planning, and code benchmarks. Our work establishes Denoising Entropy as a principled tool for understanding and controlling generation, effectively turning the uncertainty in MDMs from a liability into a key advantage for discovering high-quality solutions.

This paper presents a comprehensive collection of industrial screw driving datasets designed to advance research in manufacturing process monitoring and quality control. The collection comprises six distinct datasets with over 34,000 individual screw driving operations conducted under controlled experimental conditions, capturing the multifaceted nature of screw driving processes in plastic components. Each dataset systematically investigates specific aspects: natural thread degradation patterns through repeated use (s01), variations in surface friction conditions including contamination and surface treatments (s02), diverse assembly faults with up to 27 error types (s03-s04), and fabrication parameter variations in both upper and lower workpieces through modified injection molding settings (s05-s06). We detail the standardized experimental setup used across all datasets, including hardware specifications, process phases, and data acquisition methods. The hierarchical data model preserves the temporal and operational structure of screw driving processes, facilitating both exploratory analysis and the development of machine learning models. To maximize accessibility, we provide dual access pathways: raw data through Zenodo with a persistent DOI, and a purpose-built Python library (PyScrew) that offers consistent interfaces for data loading, preprocessing, and integration with common analysis workflows. These datasets serve diverse research applications including anomaly detection, predictive maintenance, quality control system development, feature extraction methodology evaluation, and classification of specific error conditions. By addressing the scarcity of standardized, comprehensive datasets in industrial manufacturing, this collection enables reproducible research and fair comparison of analytical approaches in an area of growing importance for industrial automation.

The generation of high-quality, long-sequenced time-series data is essential due to its wide range of applications. In the past, standalone Recurrent and Convolutional Neural Network-based Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) were used to synthesize time-series data. However, they are inadequate for generating long sequences of time-series data due to limitations in the architecture. Furthermore, GANs are well known for their training instability and mode collapse problem. To address this, we propose TransFusion, a diffusion, and transformers-based generative model to generate high-quality long-sequence time-series data. We have stretched the sequence length to 384, and generated high-quality synthetic data. Also, we introduce two evaluation metrics to evaluate the quality of the synthetic data as well as its predictive characteristics. We evaluate TransFusion with a wide variety of visual and empirical metrics, and TransFusion outperforms the previous state-of-the-art by a significant margin.

LLM-based LEGO assembly generation requires both semantic grounding and physical feasibility. We identify a data-induced failure mode, PhysHack, in which the assemblies satisfy physical-validity constraints while producing structures that are geometrically misaligned, semantically inconsistent, or poorly calibrated. To address this challenge, we propose a model-based data selection approach that uses only a small fraction of the training data while improving physically grounded LEGO assembly generation. Building on the selected trajectories, we introduce PVPO, a sample-efficient reinforcement learning method that couples physical feasibility with voxel-space geometric rewards. Our results show that physical validity alone is an insufficient proxy for reliable physical reasoning: models can learn to generate valid structures without preserving semantic or geometric fidelity. Experiments across model backbones and test-time scaling settings demonstrate that PVPO improves structural and semantic alignment, physical validity, structural stability, and calibration, while reducing reliance on extensive post-hoc rejection sampling. In particular, results on calibration show that PVPO mitigates PhysHack by making test-time selection more predictive of semantic and structural quality.

Humans distill complex experiences into fundamental abstractions that enable rapid learning and adaptation. Similarly, autoregressive transformers exhibit adaptive learning through in-context learning (ICL), which begs the question of how. In this paper, we propose concept encoding-decoding mechanism to explain ICL by studying how transformers form and use internal abstractions in their representations. On synthetic ICL tasks, we analyze the training dynamics of a small transformer and report the coupled emergence of concept encoding and decoding. As the model learns to encode different latent concepts (e.g., ``Finding the first noun in a sentence.") into distinct, separable representations, it concureently builds conditional decoding algorithms and improve its ICL performance. We validate the existence of this mechanism across pretrained models of varying scales (Gemma-2 2B/9B/27B, Llama-3.1 8B/70B). Further, through mechanistic interventions and controlled finetuning, we demonstrate that the quality of concept encoding is causally related and predictive of ICL performance. Our empirical insights shed light into better understanding the success and failure modes of large language models via their representations.

Latent diffusion models leverage visual tokenizers to compress images into latent spaces for efficient generative modeling. However, better reconstruction quality of a tokenizer does not necessarily translate into better generation quality, suggesting that latent representations should be evaluated not only by fidelity but also by their diffusability. Recent studies have proposed diverse explanations for diffusion-friendly latent spaces, including semantic separability, affine equivariance, distribution uniformity, spatial structure, spectral smoothness, and manifold continuity. Yet these properties are often validated on a limited set of tokenizers, leaving it unclear which factors are most predictive of downstream generation quality and whether such conclusions hold beyond the specific settings in which they are introduced. In this work, we conduct a systematic study of latent diffusability by training a large collection of tokenizers with diverse regularization strategies, architectures, and latent configurations, and evaluating them with multiple downstream diffusion backbones. Our analysis identifies several latent properties that consistently correlate with generation quality and exhibit strong generalization across experimental settings. Beyond existing metrics, we introduce Velocity Irreducible Variance (VIV), a measure of velocity ambiguity induced by trajectory crossings. Extensive experiments show that VIV is one of the most stable predictors of generation quality.

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.

How can you get a language model to reason in a task it natively struggles with? We study how reasoning evolves in a language model -- from supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to reinforcement learning (RL) -- by analyzing how a set of theoretically-inspired datasets impacts language model performance in chess. We find that fine-tuning a model to directly predict the best move leads to effective RL and the strongest downstream performance -- however, the RL step elicits unfaithful reasoning (reasoning inconsistent with the chosen move). Alternatively, training on multi-move trajectories yields comparable downstream performance with faithful reasoning and more stable RL. We show that RL induces a substantial positive shift in the distribution of move quality and reduces hallucination rates as a side effect. Finally, we find several SFT-checkpoint metrics -- metrics spanning evaluation performance, hallucination rates, and reasoning quality -- to be predictive of post-RL model performance. We release checkpoints and final models as well as training data, evaluations, and code which allowed us to surpass leading open-source reasoning models in chess with a 7B-parameter model.

The automatic generation of Multiple Choice Questions (MCQ) has the potential to reduce the time educators spend on student assessment significantly. However, existing evaluation metrics for MCQ generation, such as BLEU, ROUGE, and METEOR, focus on the n-gram based similarity of the generated MCQ to the gold sample in the dataset and disregard their educational value. They fail to evaluate the MCQ's ability to assess the student's knowledge of the corresponding target fact. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel automatic evaluation metric, coined Knowledge Dependent Answerability (KDA), which measures the MCQ's answerability given knowledge of the target fact. Specifically, we first show how to measure KDA based on student responses from a human survey. Then, we propose two automatic evaluation metrics, KDA_disc and KDA_cont, that approximate KDA by leveraging pre-trained language models to imitate students' problem-solving behavior. Through our human studies, we show that KDA_disc and KDA_soft have strong correlations with both (1) KDA and (2) usability in an actual classroom setting, labeled by experts. Furthermore, when combined with n-gram based similarity metrics, KDA_disc and KDA_cont are shown to have a strong predictive power for various expert-labeled MCQ quality measures.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly relied upon for solving complex reasoning tasks in domains such as mathematics, logic, and multi-step question answering. A growing line of work seeks to improve reasoning quality by scaling inference time compute particularly through Process Reward Models (PRMs), used to reward the reasoning at intermediate steps. While effective, these methods introduce substantial computational overhead, especially when generating large numbers of solutions in parallel. In this paper, we investigate whether PRMs can be used mid-generation to provide early signals that enable the rejection of suboptimal candidates before full generation of step is complete. We introduce the hypothesis that PRMs are also Partial Reward Models, meaning that the scores they assign to partially completed reasoning step are predictive of final output quality. This allows for principled early rejection based on intermediate token-level signals. We support this hypothesis both theoretically, by proving that the risk of discarding optimal beams decreases exponentially with generation length and empirically, by demonstrating a strong correlation between partial and final rewards across multiple reward models. On math reasoning benchmarks, our method achieves up to 1.4times-9times reduction in inference FLOPs without degrading final performance. These results suggest that early rejection is a powerful mechanism for improving the compute-efficiency of reasoning in LLMs.

Urban Building Energy Modeling plays a critical role in achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 11. Although existing studies based on satellite imagery and deep learning have achieved remarkable progress, many challenges exist: most existing studies are inherently predictive, failing to reflect the generative nature of urban planning; although generative AI and diffusion models have seen explosive growth in satellite imagery, they lack the urban functional generation (e.g., energy layer); third, aligned high-quality high-resolution building energy data with satellite imagery is limited and scarce. Here we propose SENSE (Satellite-based ENergy Synthesis for Sustainable Environment), a unified generative UBEM framework that jointly synthesizes realistic urban satellite imagery and aligned high-quality building energy consumption and height maps. By conditioning on road networks and urban density metrics, SENSE, based on a controllable diffusion model, leverages the knowledge learned by large vision models to generate urban building energy consumption and height information (annotations) in the latent space. Experiments across four cities (New York City, Boston, Lyon, Busan) demonstrate that SENSE achieves high visual fidelity and strong physical consistency, satisfying the ASHRAE standard metric. Experiments demonstrate that SENSE can generate enough annotated synthetic data using less than 20% labeled energy data, boosting downstream prediction performance by 10% IoU. Compared to SOTA urban energy prediction methods, SENSE significantly reduced prediction error (reduced 3%-11% NMBE and 1%-9% CVRMSE). This study offers an energy-efficiency urban planning and physical generation solution for urban science, energy science and building science. The dataset and code: https://huggingface.co/datasets/skl24/MUSE and https://github.com/kailaisun/GenAI4Urban-Energy/.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Selecting high-quality pre-training data is important for creating capable language models, but existing methods rely on simple heuristics. We introduce QuRating, a method for selecting pre-training data that captures the abstract qualities of texts which humans intuitively perceive. In this paper, we investigate four qualities - writing style, required expertise, facts & trivia, and educational value. We find that LLMs are able to discern these qualities and observe that they are better at making pairwise judgments of texts than at rating the quality of a text directly. We train a QuRater model to learn scalar ratings from pairwise judgments, and use it to annotate a 260B training corpus with quality ratings for each of the four criteria. In our experiments, we select 30B tokens according to the different quality ratings and train 1.3B-parameter language models on the selected data. We find that it is important to balance quality and diversity, as selecting only the highest-rated documents leads to poor results. When we sample using quality ratings as logits over documents, our models achieve lower perplexity and stronger in-context learning performance than baselines. Beyond data selection, we use the quality ratings to construct a training curriculum which improves performance without changing the training dataset. We extensively analyze the quality ratings and discuss their characteristics, biases, and wider implications.

Commonly used evaluation measures including Recall, Precision, F-Measure and Rand Accuracy are biased and should not be used without clear understanding of the biases, and corresponding identification of chance or base case levels of the statistic. Using these measures a system that performs worse in the objective sense of Informedness, can appear to perform better under any of these commonly used measures. We discuss several concepts and measures that reflect the probability that prediction is informed versus chance. Informedness and introduce Markedness as a dual measure for the probability that prediction is marked versus chance. Finally we demonstrate elegant connections between the concepts of Informedness, Markedness, Correlation and Significance as well as their intuitive relationships with Recall and Precision, and outline the extension from the dichotomous case to the general multi-class case.

We develop an algorithm which exceeds the performance of board certified cardiologists in detecting a wide range of heart arrhythmias from electrocardiograms recorded with a single-lead wearable monitor. We build a dataset with more than 500 times the number of unique patients than previously studied corpora. On this dataset, we train a 34-layer convolutional neural network which maps a sequence of ECG samples to a sequence of rhythm classes. Committees of board-certified cardiologists annotate a gold standard test set on which we compare the performance of our model to that of 6 other individual cardiologists. We exceed the average cardiologist performance in both recall (sensitivity) and precision (positive predictive value).

Predictive process monitoring is a process mining task aimed at forecasting information about a running process trace, such as the most correct next activity to be executed. In medical domains, predictive process monitoring can provide valuable decision support in atypical and nontrivial situations. Decision support and quality assessment in medicine cannot ignore domain knowledge, in order to be grounded on all the available information (which is not limited to data) and to be really acceptable by end users. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring approach relying on the use of a {\em transformer}, a deep learning architecture based on the attention mechanism. A major contribution of our work lies in the incorporation of ontological domain-specific knowledge, carried out through a graph positional encoding technique. The paper presents and discusses the encouraging experimental result we are collecting in the domain of stroke management.

Large-scale models are pretrained on massive web-crawled datasets containing documents of mixed quality, making data filtering essential. A popular method is Classifier-based Quality Filtering (CQF), which trains a binary classifier to distinguish between pretraining data and a small, high-quality set. It assigns each pretraining document a quality score defined as the classifier's score and retains only the top-scoring ones. We provide an in-depth analysis of CQF. We show that while CQF improves downstream task performance, it does not necessarily enhance language modeling on the high-quality dataset. We explain this paradox by the fact that CQF implicitly filters the high-quality dataset as well. We further compare the behavior of models trained with CQF to those trained on synthetic data of increasing quality, obtained via random token permutations, and find starkly different trends. Our results challenge the view that CQF captures a meaningful notion of data quality.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Machine learning models routinely automate decisions in applications like lending and hiring. In such settings, consumer protection rules require companies that deploy models to explain predictions to decision subjects. These rules are motivated, in part, by the belief that explanations can promote recourse by revealing information that individuals can use to contest or improve their outcomes. In practice, many companies comply with these rules by providing individuals with a list of the most important features for their prediction, which they identify based on feature importance scores from feature attribution methods such as SHAP or LIME. In this work, we show how these practices can undermine consumers by highlighting features that would not lead to an improved outcome and by explaining predictions that cannot be changed. We propose to address these issues by highlighting features based on their responsiveness score -- i.e., the probability that an individual can attain a target prediction by changing a specific feature. We develop efficient methods to compute responsiveness scores for any model and any dataset. We conduct an extensive empirical study on the responsiveness of explanations in lending. Our results show that standard practices in consumer finance can backfire by presenting consumers with reasons without recourse, and demonstrate how our approach improves consumer protection by highlighting responsive features and identifying fixed predictions.

Text-to-Image (T2I) generation is primarily driven by Diffusion Models (DM) which rely on random Gaussian noise. Thus, like playing the slots at a casino, a DM will produce different results given the same user-defined inputs. This imposes a gambler's burden: To perform multiple generation cycles to obtain a satisfactory result. However, even though DMs use stochastic sampling to seed generation, the distribution of generated content quality highly depends on the prompt and the generative ability of a DM with respect to it. To account for this, we propose Naïve PAINE for improving the generative quality of Diffusion Models by leveraging T2I preference benchmarks. We directly predict the numerical quality of an image from the initial noise and given prompt. Naïve PAINE then selects a handful of quality noises and forwards them to the DM for generation. Further, Naïve PAINE provides feedback on the DM generative quality given the prompt and is lightweight enough to seamlessly fit into existing DM pipelines. Experimental results demonstrate that Naïve PAINE outperforms existing approaches on several prompt corpus benchmarks.

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

The effectiveness of recommendation systems is pivotal to user engagement and satisfaction in online platforms. As these recommendation systems increasingly influence user choices, their evaluation transcends mere technical performance and becomes central to business success. This paper addresses the multifaceted nature of recommendations system evaluation by introducing a comprehensive suite of metrics, each tailored to capture a distinct aspect of system performance. We discuss * Similarity Metrics: to quantify the precision of content-based filtering mechanisms and assess the accuracy of collaborative filtering techniques. * Candidate Generation Metrics: to evaluate how effectively the system identifies a broad yet relevant range of items. * Predictive Metrics: to assess the accuracy of forecasted user preferences. * Ranking Metrics: to evaluate the effectiveness of the order in which recommendations are presented. * Business Metrics: to align the performance of the recommendation system with economic objectives. Our approach emphasizes the contextual application of these metrics and their interdependencies. In this paper, we identify the strengths and limitations of current evaluation practices and highlight the nuanced trade-offs that emerge when optimizing recommendation systems across different metrics. The paper concludes by proposing a framework for selecting and interpreting these metrics to not only improve system performance but also to advance business goals. This work is to aid researchers and practitioners in critically assessing recommendation systems and fosters the development of more nuanced, effective, and economically viable personalization strategies. Our code is available at GitHub - https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Evaluation-Metrics-for-Recommendation-Systems.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

We present the contribution of the Unbabel team to the WMT 2020 Shared Task on Metrics. We intend to participate on the segment-level, document-level and system-level tracks on all language pairs, as well as the 'QE as a Metric' track. Accordingly, we illustrate results of our models in these tracks with reference to test sets from the previous year. Our submissions build upon the recently proposed COMET framework: We train several estimator models to regress on different human-generated quality scores and a novel ranking model trained on relative ranks obtained from Direct Assessments. We also propose a simple technique for converting segment-level predictions into a document-level score. Overall, our systems achieve strong results for all language pairs on previous test sets and in many cases set a new state-of-the-art.

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

We introduce the submissions of the NJUNLP team to the WMT 2023 Quality Estimation (QE) shared task. Our team submitted predictions for the English-German language pair on all two sub-tasks: (i) sentence- and word-level quality prediction; and (ii) fine-grained error span detection. This year, we further explore pseudo data methods for QE based on NJUQE framework (https://github.com/NJUNLP/njuqe). We generate pseudo MQM data using parallel data from the WMT translation task. We pre-train the XLMR large model on pseudo QE data, then fine-tune it on real QE data. At both stages, we jointly learn sentence-level scores and word-level tags. Empirically, we conduct experiments to find the key hyper-parameters that improve the performance. Technically, we propose a simple method that covert the word-level outputs to fine-grained error span results. Overall, our models achieved the best results in English-German for both word-level and fine-grained error span detection sub-tasks by a considerable margin.

We present the joint contribution of Unbabel and Instituto Superior T\'ecnico to the WMT 2023 Shared Task on Quality Estimation (QE). Our team participated on all tasks: sentence- and word-level quality prediction (task 1) and fine-grained error span detection (task 2). For all tasks, we build on the COMETKIWI-22 model (Rei et al., 2022b). Our multilingual approaches are ranked first for all tasks, reaching state-of-the-art performance for quality estimation at word-, span- and sentence-level granularity. Compared to the previous state-of-the-art COMETKIWI-22, we show large improvements in correlation with human judgements (up to 10 Spearman points). Moreover, we surpass the second-best multilingual submission to the shared-task with up to 3.8 absolute points.

This study investigates the consistency of feedback ratings generated by OpenAI's GPT-4, a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence language model, across multiple iterations, time spans and stylistic variations. The model rated responses to tasks within the Higher Education (HE) subject domain of macroeconomics in terms of their content and style. Statistical analysis was conducted in order to learn more about the interrater reliability, consistency of the ratings across iterations and the correlation between ratings in terms of content and style. The results revealed a high interrater reliability with ICC scores ranging between 0.94 and 0.99 for different timespans, suggesting that GPT-4 is capable of generating consistent ratings across repetitions with a clear prompt. Style and content ratings show a high correlation of 0.87. When applying a non-adequate style the average content ratings remained constant, while style ratings decreased, which indicates that the large language model (LLM) effectively distinguishes between these two criteria during evaluation. The prompt used in this study is furthermore presented and explained. Further research is necessary to assess the robustness and reliability of AI models in various use cases.

Training data influence estimation methods quantify the contribution of training documents to a model's output, making them a promising source of information for example-based explanations. As humans cannot interpret thousands of documents, only a small subset of the training data can be presented as an explanation. Although the choice of which documents to include directly affects explanation quality, previous evaluations of such systems have largely ignored any selection strategies. To address this, we propose a novel selection relevance score, a retraining-free metric that quantifies how useful a set of examples is for explaining a model's output. We validate this score through fine-tuning experiments, confirming that it can predict whether a set of examples supports or undermines the model's predictions. Using this metric, we further show that common selection strategies often underperform random selection. Motivated by this finding, we propose a strategy that balances influence and representativeness, enabling better use of selection budgets than naively selecting the highest-ranking examples.

Recent works have extended notions of feature importance to semantic concepts that are inherently interpretable to the users interacting with a black-box predictive model. Yet, precise statistical guarantees, such as false positive rate control, are needed to communicate findings transparently and to avoid unintended consequences in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we formalize the global (i.e., over a population) and local (i.e., for a sample) statistical importance of semantic concepts for the predictions of opaque models, by means of conditional independence, which allows for rigorous testing. We use recent ideas of sequential kernelized testing (SKIT) to induce a rank of importance across concepts, and showcase the effectiveness and flexibility of our framework on synthetic datasets as well as on image classification tasks using vision-language models such as CLIP.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to best quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we revisit core concepts to propose a framework for information-theoretic measures of predictive uncertainty. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We extensively evaluate these measures across a broad set of tasks, identifying conditions under which certain measures excel. Our findings show the importance of aligning the choice of uncertainty measure with the predicting model on in-distribution (ID) data, the limitations of epistemic uncertainty measures for out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and that the disentanglement between measures varies substantially between ID and OOD data. Together, these insights provide a more comprehensive understanding of predictive uncertainty measures, revealing their implicit assumptions and relationships.

In large language model (LLM) pretraining, data quality is believed to determine model quality. In this paper, we re-examine the notion of "quality" from the perspective of pre- and post-training co-design. Specifically, we explore the possibility that pre-training on more toxic data can lead to better control in post-training, ultimately decreasing a model's output toxicity. First, we use a toy experiment to study how data composition affects the geometry of features in the representation space. Next, through controlled experiments with Olmo-1B models trained on varying ratios of clean and toxic data, we find that the concept of toxicity enjoys a less entangled linear representation as the proportion of toxic data increases. Furthermore, we show that although toxic data increases the generational toxicity of the base model, it also makes the toxicity easier to remove. Evaluations on Toxigen and Real Toxicity Prompts demonstrate that models trained on toxic data achieve a better trade-off between reducing generational toxicity and preserving general capabilities when detoxifying techniques such as inference-time intervention (ITI) are applied. Our findings suggest that, with post-training taken into account, bad data may lead to good models.

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

The extant insurance literature demonstrates a paucity of finite-sample valid prediction intervals of future insurance claims in the regression setting. To address this challenge, this article proposes a new strategy that converts a predictive method in the unsupervised iid (independent identically distributed) setting to a predictive method in the regression setting. In particular, it enables an actuary to obtain infinitely many finite-sample valid prediction intervals in the regression setting.

Reporting quality is an important topic in clinical trial research articles, as it can impact clinical decisions. In this article, we test the ability of large language models to assess the reporting quality of this type of article using the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT). We create CONSORT-QA, an evaluation corpus from two studies on abstract reporting quality with CONSORT-abstract standards. We then evaluate the ability of different large generative language models (from the general domain or adapted to the biomedical domain) to correctly assess CONSORT criteria with different known prompting methods, including Chain-of-thought. Our best combination of model and prompting method achieves 85% accuracy. Using Chain-of-thought adds valuable information on the model's reasoning for completing the task.

We present an empirical evaluation of various outputs generated by nine of the most widely-available large language models (LLMs). Our analysis is done with off-the-shelf, readily-available tools. We find a correlation between percentage of memorized text, percentage of unique text, and overall output quality, when measured with respect to output pathologies such as counterfactual and logically-flawed statements, and general failures like not staying on topic. Overall, 80.0% of the outputs evaluated contained memorized data, but outputs containing the most memorized content were also more likely to be considered of high quality. We discuss and evaluate mitigation strategies, showing that, in the models evaluated, the rate of memorized text being output is reduced. We conclude with a discussion on potential implications around what it means to learn, to memorize, and to evaluate quality text.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

The objective of this paper is to understand what characteristics and features of clinical data influence physician's decision about ordering laboratory tests or prescribing medications the most. We conduct our analysis on data and decisions extracted from electronic health records of 4486 post-surgical cardiac patients. The summary statistics for 335 different lab order decisions and 407 medication decisions are reported. We show that in many cases, physician's lab-order and medication decisions can be well predicted from a small subset of all features.

Checklists are simple decision aids that are often used to promote safety and reliability in clinical applications. In this paper, we present a method to learn checklists for clinical decision support. We represent predictive checklists as discrete linear classifiers with binary features and unit weights. We then learn globally optimal predictive checklists from data by solving an integer programming problem. Our method allows users to customize checklists to obey complex constraints, including constraints to enforce group fairness and to binarize real-valued features at training time. In addition, it pairs models with an optimality gap that can inform model development and determine the feasibility of learning sufficiently accurate checklists on a given dataset. We pair our method with specialized techniques that speed up its ability to train a predictive checklist that performs well and has a small optimality gap. We benchmark the performance of our method on seven clinical classification problems, and demonstrate its practical benefits by training a short-form checklist for PTSD screening. Our results show that our method can fit simple predictive checklists that perform well and that can easily be customized to obey a rich class of custom constraints.

We present the joint contribution of IST and Unbabel to the WMT 2022 Shared Task on Quality Estimation (QE). Our team participated on all three subtasks: (i) Sentence and Word-level Quality Prediction; (ii) Explainable QE; and (iii) Critical Error Detection. For all tasks we build on top of the COMET framework, connecting it with the predictor-estimator architecture of OpenKiwi, and equipping it with a word-level sequence tagger and an explanation extractor. Our results suggest that incorporating references during pretraining improves performance across several language pairs on downstream tasks, and that jointly training with sentence and word-level objectives yields a further boost. Furthermore, combining attention and gradient information proved to be the top strategy for extracting good explanations of sentence-level QE models. Overall, our submissions achieved the best results for all three tasks for almost all language pairs by a considerable margin.

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

One of the challenges of developing a summarization model arises from the difficulty in measuring the factual inconsistency of the generated text. In this study, we reinterpret the decoder overconfidence-regularizing objective suggested in (Miao et al., 2021) as a hallucination risk measurement to better estimate the quality of generated summaries. We propose a reference-free metric, HaRiM+, which only requires an off-the-shelf summarization model to compute the hallucination risk based on token likelihoods. Deploying it requires no additional training of models or ad-hoc modules, which usually need alignment to human judgments. For summary-quality estimation, HaRiM+ records state-of-the-art correlation to human judgment on three summary-quality annotation sets: FRANK, QAGS, and SummEval. We hope that our work, which merits the use of summarization models, facilitates the progress of both automated evaluation and generation of summary.

Large language models (LLMs) excel in most NLP tasks but also require expensive cloud servers for deployment due to their size, while smaller models that can be deployed on lower cost (e.g., edge) devices, tend to lag behind in terms of response quality. Therefore in this work we propose a hybrid inference approach which combines their respective strengths to save cost and maintain quality. Our approach uses a router that assigns queries to the small or large model based on the predicted query difficulty and the desired quality level. The desired quality level can be tuned dynamically at test time to seamlessly trade quality for cost as per the scenario requirements. In experiments our approach allows us to make up to 40% fewer calls to the large model, with no drop in response quality.

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as patient demographics, systems and clinical practices change. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive model performance post-publication is crucial to enable their safe and effective long-term use. We will assess the infrastructure required to monitor the outputs of a machine learning algorithm, and present two scenarios with examples of monitoring and updates of models, firstly on a breast cancer prognosis model trained on public longitudinal data, and secondly on a neurodegenerative stratification algorithm that is currently being developed and tested in clinic.