Daily Papers

Object counting in videos remains a poorly characterized capability of multimodal large language models. Counting questions are included in many existing VideoQA benchmarks, but the ground-truth count distributions in these benchmarks are heavily skewed toward small values. Across the nine benchmarks we survey, the median ground-truth count is at most five, and the three most frequent values together account for between 45% and 93% of the videos. The resulting mean accuracy is then dominated by the most frequent counts; a value-dependent bias at a rare count contributes negligibly to the average and remains invisible. We introduce CountVideoBench, a benchmark of 2,600 synthetic videos covering 26 cardinalities in the interval [5, 50] (100 videos each), grouped into six clusters of consecutive counts that span the range while enabling near-neighbor comparisons. Each video contains a single class of static objects under a controlled camera motion, removing object motion and reducing recognition as confounds. We evaluate sixteen video-language models from nine architecture families in a zero-shot setting. No model exceeds 27.6% Exact Match. The dependence of accuracy on cardinality varies across models, ranging from monotonic decline to a non-monotonic peak-and-collapse pattern, which rules out increasing difficulty with cardinality as the dominant explanation of counting failure. Every model further concentrates its predictions on its own set of preferred integers, with accuracy peaks coinciding with these values and collapsing at adjacent counts. These findings highlight the need for balanced, diagnostic counting benchmarks to reliably assess this fundamental visual capability.

Assessing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires multi-step reasoning over visual cues, contextual knowledge, and development indicators, where incomplete evidence use and imperfect evidence integration can introduce hidden prediction biases. Real-world SDG monitoring further spans both qualitative judgments and quantitative estimation. However, existing benchmarks typically evaluate these aspects in isolation, obscuring systematic biases that emerge when models substitute priors for evidence. To address this gap, we propose SDGBiasBench, a large-scale benchmark suite for SDG-oriented vision-language reasoning. Spanning 500k expert-involved multiple-choice questions and 50k regression tasks, the benchmark enables comprehensive assessment of both decision-level and estimation-level bias in Vision--Language Models (VLMs). Evaluations on SDGBiasBench reveal an intrinsic SDG bias in current VLMs, where predictions are frequently driven by SDG specific priors rather than reliable multi-modal cues. To mitigate such bias, we propose CADE (Contrastive Adaptive Debias Ensemble), a training-free, plug-and-play method that leverages modality-specific answer priors. CADE yields significant gains on the proposed benchmark, improving multiple-choice accuracy by up to 25% and reducing regression MAE by up to 12 points across multiple VLMs. We hope our work can foster the development of more fair and reliable AI systems for sustainable development.

Time-series forecasters are ranked almost entirely by accuracy metrics, but a forecast's decision value, its effect on the downstream decision, need not track accuracy and is rarely measured. This problem compounds as large language model (LLM) agents increasingly consume forecasters as tools, mediating them through stochastic, opaque policies. We present Vendster, an evaluation arena measuring how a forecaster's bias and prediction-interval width change the outcome of a buyer--vendor discount negotiation between two LLM agents. In the reference instance Vendster-M5, sampling base demand patterns from the M5 dataset, we evaluate two frontier-closed LLM families (Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.6 Sol) and two open ones (DeepSeek-V3.2 and Qwen3-235B-A22B). Model-generated forecasts raise sales target attainment by up to +17 percentage points (p<0.001), yet standard forecast evaluation metrics such as relWQL and MASE do not predict negotiation outcomes at a statistically significant level. To isolate the causal structure, we substitute in synthetic forecasts with controlled bias and interval width. Under-prediction bias significantly improves outcomes for agents that react more to the forecasts---dose-response slopes -0.387 and -0.416 (p<0.001). Interval width has no statistically significant effect at zero bias. These findings indicate that the direction of forecast bias and agent forecast-reactivity are more strongly associated with downstream outcomes than forecast accuracy. Vendster is fully customizable and released under CC BY-NC 4.0 at https://github.com/amazon-science/Vendster.

Constantly discovering novel concepts is crucial in evolving environments. This paper explores the underexplored task of Continual Generalized Category Discovery (C-GCD), which aims to incrementally discover new classes from unlabeled data while maintaining the ability to recognize previously learned classes. Although several settings are proposed to study the C-GCD task, they have limitations that do not reflect real-world scenarios. We thus study a more practical C-GCD setting, which includes more new classes to be discovered over a longer period, without storing samples of past classes. In C-GCD, the model is initially trained on labeled data of known classes, followed by multiple incremental stages where the model is fed with unlabeled data containing both old and new classes. The core challenge involves two conflicting objectives: discover new classes and prevent forgetting old ones. We delve into the conflicts and identify that models are susceptible to prediction bias and hardness bias. To address these issues, we introduce a debiased learning framework, namely Happy, characterized by Hardness-aware prototype sampling and soft entropy regularization. For the prediction bias, we first introduce clustering-guided initialization to provide robust features. In addition, we propose soft entropy regularization to assign appropriate probabilities to new classes, which can significantly enhance the clustering performance of new classes. For the harness bias, we present the hardness-aware prototype sampling, which can effectively reduce the forgetting issue for previously seen classes, especially for difficult classes. Experimental results demonstrate our method proficiently manages the conflicts of C-GCD and achieves remarkable performance across various datasets, e.g., 7.5% overall gains on ImageNet-100. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/mashijie1028/Happy-CGCD.

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) aims to discover novel categories in unlabelled datasets using knowledge learned from labelled samples. Previous studies argued that parametric classifiers are prone to overfitting to seen categories, and endorsed using a non-parametric classifier formed with semi-supervised k-means. However, in this study, we investigate the failure of parametric classifiers, verify the effectiveness of previous design choices when high-quality supervision is available, and identify unreliable pseudo-labels as a key problem. We demonstrate that two prediction biases exist: the classifier tends to predict seen classes more often, and produces an imbalanced distribution across seen and novel categories. Based on these findings, we propose a simple yet effective parametric classification method that benefits from entropy regularisation, achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple GCD benchmarks and shows strong robustness to unknown class numbers. We hope the investigation and proposed simple framework can serve as a strong baseline to facilitate future studies in this field. Our code is available at: https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/SimGCD.

Multi-Label Text Classification (MLTC) aims to assign the most relevant labels to each given text. Existing methods demonstrate that label dependency can help to improve the model's performance. However, the introduction of label dependency may cause the model to suffer from unwanted prediction bias. In this study, we attribute the bias to the model's misuse of label dependency, i.e., the model tends to utilize the correlation shortcut in label dependency rather than fusing text information and label dependency for prediction. Motivated by causal inference, we propose a CounterFactual Text Classifier (CFTC) to eliminate the correlation bias, and make causality-based predictions. Specifically, our CFTC first adopts the predict-then-modify backbone to extract precise label information embedded in label dependency, then blocks the correlation shortcut through the counterfactual de-bias technique with the help of the human causal graph. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate that our CFTC significantly outperforms the baselines and effectively eliminates the correlation bias in datasets.

Fair machine learning seeks to mitigate model prediction bias against certain demographic subgroups such as elder and female. Recently, fair representation learning (FRL) trained by deep neural networks has demonstrated superior performance, whereby representations containing no demographic information are inferred from the data and then used as the input to classification or other downstream tasks. Despite the development of FRL methods, their vulnerability under data poisoning attack, a popular protocol to benchmark model robustness under adversarial scenarios, is under-explored. Data poisoning attacks have been developed for classical fair machine learning methods which incorporate fairness constraints into shallow-model classifiers. Nonetheless, these attacks fall short in FRL due to notably different fairness goals and model architectures. This work proposes the first data poisoning framework attacking FRL. We induce the model to output unfair representations that contain as much demographic information as possible by injecting carefully crafted poisoning samples into the training data. This attack entails a prohibitive bilevel optimization, wherefore an effective approximated solution is proposed. A theoretical analysis on the needed number of poisoning samples is derived and sheds light on defending against the attack. Experiments on benchmark fairness datasets and state-of-the-art fair representation learning models demonstrate the superiority of our attack.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a widely used framework for training compact, task-specific models by leveraging the knowledge of teacher models. However, its application to active learning (AL), which aims to minimize annotation costs through iterative sample selection, remains underexplored. This gap stems from the fact that KD typically assumes access to sufficient labeled data, whereas AL operates in data-scarce scenarios where task-specific teacher models are often unavailable. In this paper, we introduce ActiveKD, a framework that integrates AL with KD by leveraging the zero- and few-shot capabilities of large vision-language models (VLMs). A key aspect of ActiveKD is the structured prediction bias of VLMs -- i.e., their predictions form clusters in the probability space. We regard this structure as an inductive bias of the teacher model, capturing generalizable output patterns beneficial to student learning. To exploit this bias, we propose Probabilistic CoreSet (PCoreSet), a selection strategy that maximizes coverage in the probability space rather than the feature space. PCoreSet strategically selects categorically diverse unlabeled samples, facilitating more efficient transfer of teacher knowledge under limited annotation budgets. Evaluations on 11 datasets show that PCoreSet consistently outperforms existing selection methods within the ActiveKD framework, advancing research at the intersection of AL and KD.

Mitigating hallucinations of Large Multi-modal Models(LMMs) is crucial to enhance their reliability for general-purpose assistants. This paper shows that such hallucinations of LMMs can be significantly exacerbated by preceding user-system dialogues. To precisely measure this, we first present an evaluation benchmark by extending popular multi-modal benchmark datasets with prepended hallucinatory dialogues generated by our novel Adversarial Question Generator, which can automatically generate image-related yet adversarial dialogues by adopting adversarial attacks on LMMs. On our benchmark, the zero-shot performance of state-of-the-art LMMs dropped significantly for both the VQA and Captioning tasks. Next, we further reveal this hallucination is mainly due to the prediction bias toward preceding dialogues rather than visual content. To reduce this bias, we propose Adversarial Instruction Tuning that robustly fine-tunes LMMs on augmented multi-modal instruction-following datasets with hallucinatory dialogues. Extensive experiments show that our proposed approach successfully reduces dialogue hallucination while maintaining or even improving performance.

Leveraging the models' outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground truth labels. Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift. In this work, we first study the relationship between logits and generalization performance from the view of low-density separation assumption. Our findings motivate our proposed method MaNo which (1) applies a data-dependent normalization on the logits to reduce prediction bias, and (2) takes the L_p norm of the matrix of normalized logits as the estimation score. Our theoretical analysis highlights the connection between the provided score and the model's uncertainty. We conduct an extensive empirical study on common unsupervised accuracy estimation benchmarks and demonstrate that MaNo achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures in the presence of synthetic, natural, or subpopulation shifts.

Multimodal learning often encounters the under-optimized problem and may perform worse than unimodal learning. Existing approaches attribute this issue to imbalanced learning across modalities and tend to address it through gradient balancing. However, this paper argues that balanced learning is not the optimal setting for multimodal learning. With bias-variance analysis, we prove that imbalanced dependency on each modality obeying the inverse ratio of their variances contributes to optimal performance. To this end, we propose the Asymmetric Representation Learning(ARL) strategy to assist multimodal learning via imbalanced optimization. ARL introduces auxiliary regularizers for each modality encoder to calculate their prediction variance. ARL then calculates coefficients via the unimodal variance to re-weight the optimization of each modality, forcing the modality dependence ratio to be inversely proportional to the modality variance ratio. Moreover, to minimize the generalization error, ARL further introduces the prediction bias of each modality and jointly optimizes them with multimodal loss. Notably, all auxiliary regularizers share parameters with the multimodal model and rely only on the modality representation. Thus the proposed ARL strategy introduces no extra parameters and is independent of the structures and fusion methods of the multimodal model. Finally, extensive experiments on various datasets validate the effectiveness and versatility of ARL. Code is available at https://github.com/shicaiwei123/ICCV2025-ARL{https://github.com/shicaiwei123/ICCV2025-ARL}

Image-to-video (I2V) generation tasks always suffer from keeping high fidelity in the open domains. Traditional image animation techniques primarily focus on specific domains such as faces or human poses, making them difficult to generalize to open domains. Several recent I2V frameworks based on diffusion models can generate dynamic content for open domain images but fail to maintain fidelity. We found that two main factors of low fidelity are the loss of image details and the noise prediction biases during the denoising process. To this end, we propose an effective method that can be applied to mainstream video diffusion models. This method achieves high fidelity based on supplementing more precise image information and noise rectification. Specifically, given a specified image, our method first adds noise to the input image latent to keep more details, then denoises the noisy latent with proper rectification to alleviate the noise prediction biases. Our method is tuning-free and plug-and-play. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in improving the fidelity of generated videos. For more image-to-video generated results, please refer to the project website: https://noise-rectification.github.io.

Although large multimodal models (LMMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in visual scene interpretation and reasoning, their capacity for complex and precise 3-dimensional spatial reasoning remains uncertain. Existing benchmarks focus predominantly on 2D spatial understanding and lack a framework to comprehensively evaluate 6D spatial reasoning across varying complexities. To address this limitation, we present PulseCheck457, a scalable and unbiased synthetic dataset designed with 4 key capability for spatial reasoning: multi-object recognition, 2D location, 3D location, and 3D orientation. We develop a cascading evaluation structure, constructing 7 question types across 5 difficulty levels that range from basic single object recognition to our new proposed complex 6D spatial reasoning tasks. We evaluated various large multimodal models (LMMs) on PulseCheck457, observing a general decline in performance as task complexity increases, particularly in 3D reasoning and 6D spatial tasks. To quantify these challenges, we introduce the Relative Performance Dropping Rate (RPDR), highlighting key weaknesses in 3D reasoning capabilities. Leveraging the unbiased attribute design of our dataset, we also uncover prediction biases across different attributes, with similar patterns observed in real-world image settings.

Chains of thought (CoTs) have become central in interpreting and auditing behaviors of large language models. Yet growing evidence suggests that these traces often fail to faithfully represent the computations behind a model's predictions. Several faithfulness metrics have been proposed, but whether they indeed measure faithfulness remains unknown. Answering this requires ground-truth labels, which are hard to obtain since internal computations are not directly observable. Consequently, most works proposing metrics report only absolute scores or comparisons to prior metrics, and the few existing benchmarks rely on proxies like plausibility or importance, properties orthogonal to faithfulness that can mislead about whether a CoT can be trusted. We address this challenge by constructing tasks whose outputs reveal which intermediate computations must have produced them, and developing an automated labeling pipeline that yields ground-truth faithfulness labels at both the step and CoT level. Building on this methodology, we present BonaFide, a benchmark of 3,066 labeled CoTs across 13 tasks and 10 models, and use it to conduct the first systematic evaluation of prominent faithfulness metrics. Our experiments show that most metrics perform near chance, exhibit strong prediction biases and degrade on longer CoTs. The best metric reaches only 0.70 AUROC at the CoT level while another reaches 0.59 at the step level, with neither transferring across settings, while entailing prohibitively high computational cost. Our results expose fundamental gaps in current faithfulness evaluation and call for the development of more reliable and efficient metrics.

As the class size grows, maintaining a balanced dataset across many classes is challenging because the data are long-tailed in nature; it is even impossible when the sample-of-interest co-exists with each other in one collectable unit, e.g., multiple visual instances in one image. Therefore, long-tailed classification is the key to deep learning at scale. However, existing methods are mainly based on re-weighting/re-sampling heuristics that lack a fundamental theory. In this paper, we establish a causal inference framework, which not only unravels the whys of previous methods, but also derives a new principled solution. Specifically, our theory shows that the SGD momentum is essentially a confounder in long-tailed classification. On one hand, it has a harmful causal effect that misleads the tail prediction biased towards the head. On the other hand, its induced mediation also benefits the representation learning and head prediction. Our framework elegantly disentangles the paradoxical effects of the momentum, by pursuing the direct causal effect caused by an input sample. In particular, we use causal intervention in training, and counterfactual reasoning in inference, to remove the "bad" while keep the "good". We achieve new state-of-the-arts on three long-tailed visual recognition benchmarks: Long-tailed CIFAR-10/-100, ImageNet-LT for image classification and LVIS for instance segmentation.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Rotated object detection has made significant progress in the optical remote sensing. However, advancements in the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) field are laggard behind, primarily due to the absence of a large-scale dataset. Annotating such a dataset is inefficient and costly. A promising solution is to employ a weakly supervised model (e.g., trained with available horizontal boxes only) to generate pseudo-rotated boxes for reference before manual calibration. Unfortunately, the existing weakly supervised models exhibit limited accuracy in predicting the object's angle. Previous works attempt to enhance angle prediction by using angle resolvers that decouple angles into cosine and sine encodings. In this work, we first reevaluate these resolvers from a unified perspective of dimension mapping and expose that they share the same shortcomings: these methods overlook the unit cycle constraint inherent in these encodings, easily leading to prediction biases. To address this issue, we propose the Unit Cycle Resolver, which incorporates a unit circle constraint loss to improve angle prediction accuracy. Our approach can effectively improve the performance of existing state-of-the-art weakly supervised methods and even surpasses fully supervised models on existing optical benchmarks (i.e., DOTA-v1.0 dataset). With the aid of UCR, we further annotate and introduce RSAR, the largest multi-class rotated SAR object detection dataset to date. Extensive experiments on both RSAR and optical datasets demonstrate that our UCR enhances angle prediction accuracy. Our dataset and code can be found at: https://github.com/zhasion/RSAR.

Video Large Language Models (Video-LLMs) have made rapid progress on temporal video understanding, yet many fail at a basic perceptual primitive: signed image-plane motion direction. On simple videos of a single object moving left, right, up, or down, most Video-LLMs perform near chance, with above-chance cases largely attributable to prediction biases rather than genuine direction understanding. We call this failure directional motion blindness. We localize the failure by tracing motion direction information through the Video-LLM pipeline. Motion direction remains linearly accessible from the vision encoder, projector, and LLM hidden states, but the readout fails to bind this signal to the correct verbal answer option, revealing a direction binding gap. Although synthetic motion direction instruction tuning reduces this gap on the source domain, motion direction concept vector analysis shows that visual complexity weakens the signal magnitude and limits out-of-domain generalization. We introduce MoDirect, a dataset family for motion direction instruction tuning and evaluation, and DeltaDirect, a diagnosis-driven, projector-level objective that predicts normalized 2-D motion vectors from adjacent-frame feature deltas. On MoDirect-SynBench, instruction tuning with DeltaDirect improves motion direction accuracy from 25.9% to 85.4%. On MoDirect-RealBench, DeltaDirect improves real-world motion direction accuracy by 21.9 points over the vanilla baseline without real-world tuning data, while preserving standard video-understanding performance. Code: https://github.com/KHU-VLL/DeltaDirect

Reliable facial expression learning (FEL) involves the effective learning of distinctive facial expression characteristics for more reliable, unbiased and accurate predictions in real-life settings. However, current systems struggle with FEL tasks because of the variance in people's facial expressions due to their unique facial structures, movements, tones, and demographics. Biased and imbalanced datasets compound this challenge, leading to wrong and biased prediction labels. To tackle these, we introduce GReFEL, leveraging Vision Transformers and a facial geometry-aware anchor-based reliability balancing module to combat imbalanced data distributions, bias, and uncertainty in facial expression learning. Integrating local and global data with anchors that learn different facial data points and structural features, our approach adjusts biased and mislabeled emotions caused by intra-class disparity, inter-class similarity, and scale sensitivity, resulting in comprehensive, accurate, and reliable facial expression predictions. Our model outperforms current state-of-the-art methodologies, as demonstrated by extensive experiments on various datasets.

Compositional zero-shot learning (CZSL) aims to recognize unseen compositions with prior knowledge of known primitives (attribute and object). Previous works for CZSL often suffer from grasping the contextuality between attribute and object, as well as the discriminability of visual features, and the long-tailed distribution of real-world compositional data. We propose a simple and scalable framework called Composition Transformer (CoT) to address these issues. CoT employs object and attribute experts in distinctive manners to generate representative embeddings, using the visual network hierarchically. The object expert extracts representative object embeddings from the final layer in a bottom-up manner, while the attribute expert makes attribute embeddings in a top-down manner with a proposed object-guided attention module that models contextuality explicitly. To remedy biased prediction caused by imbalanced data distribution, we develop a simple minority attribute augmentation (MAA) that synthesizes virtual samples by mixing two images and oversampling minority attribute classes. Our method achieves SoTA performance on several benchmarks, including MIT-States, C-GQA, and VAW-CZSL. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of CoT in improving visual discrimination and addressing the model bias from the imbalanced data distribution. The code is available at https://github.com/HanjaeKim98/CoT.

Humans and animals do not learn vision from a fixed set of data: they move, interact, and learn from the visual consequences of their actions. Motivated by this developmental view, we study whether robots can improve visual learning by actively collecting experience through curiosity-driven interaction. We introduce DySCOVER, a self-supervised framework for active robot visual learning. A robot observes RGB frames, learns a visual autoencoder that encodes and reconstructs them, and trains a recurrent world model to predict the next visual latent state conditioned on the current state and action. The agent's policy is trained only with intrinsic rewards: reconstruction error encourages visually novel observations, while the world model's error encourages transitions whose consequences are not yet predictable. This prediction error biases the policy toward more intricate trajectories that enrich the agent's set of experiences with observations beyond those encouraged by visual novelty alone. Our experiments conducted with robotic arms as the embodied agents show that adding predictive curiosity improves the vision model over using visual curiosity alone. Across variations in initial conditions, experience capacity, embodiment, and scene content, adding predictive curiosity consistently improved visual learning. These results show that predictive curiosity can improve active visual learning beyond reconstruction-based curiosity alone.

Learning from pseudo-labels that generated with VLMs~(Vision Language Models) has been shown as a promising solution to assist open vocabulary detection (OVD) in recent studies. However, due to the domain gap between VLM and vision-detection tasks, pseudo-labels produced by the VLMs are prone to be noisy, while the training design of the detector further amplifies the bias. In this work, we investigate the root cause of VLMs' biased prediction under the OVD context. Our observations lead to a simple yet effective paradigm, coded MarvelOVD, that generates significantly better training targets and optimizes the learning procedure in an online manner by marrying the capability of the detector with the vision-language model. Our key insight is that the detector itself can act as a strong auxiliary guidance to accommodate VLM's inability of understanding both the ``background'' and the context of a proposal within the image. Based on it, we greatly purify the noisy pseudo-labels via Online Mining and propose Adaptive Reweighting to effectively suppress the biased training boxes that are not well aligned with the target object. In addition, we also identify a neglected ``base-novel-conflict'' problem and introduce stratified label assignments to prevent it. Extensive experiments on COCO and LVIS datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms the other state-of-the-arts by significant margins. Codes are available at https://github.com/wkfdb/MarvelOVD

While LLMs are powerful embedding backbones, their application in training-free settings faces two structural challenges: causal attention restricts early tokens from accessing subsequent context, and the next-token prediction objective biases representations toward generation rather than semantic compression. To address these limitations, we propose KV-Embedding, a framework that activates the latent representation power of frozen LLMs. Our method leverages the observation that the key-value (KV) states of the final token at each layer encode a compressed view of the sequence. By re-routing these states as a prepended prefix, we enable all tokens to access sequence-level context within a single forward pass. To ensure model-agnostic applicability, we introduce an automated layer selection strategy based on intrinsic dimensionality. Evaluations on MTEB across Qwen, Mistral, and Llama backbones show that KV-Embedding outperforms existing training-free baselines by up to 10%, while maintaining robust performance on sequences up to 4,096 tokens. These results demonstrate that internal state manipulation offers an efficient alternative to input modification, and we hope this work encourages further exploration of LLM internals for representation learning.

Vision-threatening eye diseases pose a major global health burden, with timely diagnosis limited by workforce shortages and restricted access to specialized care. While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) show promise for medical image interpretation, advancing MLLMs for ophthalmology is hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmark datasets suitable for evaluating generative models. We present a large-scale multimodal ophthalmology benchmark comprising 32,633 instances with multi-granular annotations across 12 common ophthalmic conditions and 5 imaging modalities. The dataset integrates imaging, anatomical structures, demographics, and free-text annotations, supporting anatomical structure recognition, disease screening, disease staging, and demographic prediction for bias evaluation. This work extends our preliminary LMOD benchmark with three major enhancements: (1) nearly 50% dataset expansion with substantial enlargement of color fundus photography; (2) broadened task coverage including binary disease diagnosis, multi-class diagnosis, severity classification with international grading standards, and demographic prediction; and (3) systematic evaluation of 24 state-of-the-art MLLMs. Our evaluations reveal both promise and limitations. Top-performing models achieved ~58% accuracy in disease screening under zero-shot settings, and performance remained suboptimal for challenging tasks like disease staging. We will publicly release the dataset, curation pipeline, and leaderboard to potentially advance ophthalmic AI applications and reduce the global burden of vision-threatening diseases.

Learned simulators for deformable linear objects (DLOs) such as cables have to predict the motion of cables they were not trained on and stay stable over long rollouts. Most of their error occurs where the cable touches itself or the floor. Attention over all pairs of cable segments can represent contact between parts of the cable that are far apart along its length, but attention has no notion of geometry. A cable has two pairwise distances, which agree only while it is straight: the arc-length distance along the cable, which governs elastic forces, and the Euclidean distance in space, which governs contact. We add a physical attention bias, an additive term on the attention logits with a learned rate, and ask which distance it should use. We compare no bias, each distance alone, and both distances on disjoint sets of heads, keeping the rest of the model and the training protocol fixed. A physical bias improves prediction on unseen cables. The gain is largest when attention is the only mechanism that connects distant segments: there, the arc-length bias reduces prediction error by 15% and more than halves the drift in segment length. The Euclidean bias alone stays close to unbiased attention, while assigning both distances across heads is best or near-best on every metric we report. Code and per-run records: https://github.com/avihaig/dlogps.

Online conformal prediction can fail when predictions shape actions and actions determine which outcomes enter calibration. Standard adaptive methods may retain marginal coverage while systematically miscovering the counterfactual outcomes of rarely selected actions. This paper formalizes the failure through counterfactual coverage and introduces Propensity-Weighted Online Conformal Prediction, an inverse-propensity-weighted recursion that debiases calibration. A doubly robust variant further reduces nuisance bias to the product of outcome-model and propensity errors. Under positivity, the resulting coverage rate matches an information-theoretic lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Experiments on synthetic decision tasks, open bandit data, and financial rebalancing show that PW-OCP and DR-OCP improve counterfactual coverage and downstream regret without sacrificing prediction-set sharpness.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled automatic generation of chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, leading to strong performance on tasks such as math and code. However, when reasoning steps reflect social stereotypes (e.g., those related to gender, race or age), they can reinforce harmful associations and lead to misleading conclusions. We present the first systematic evaluation of social bias within LLM-generated reasoning, using the BBQ dataset to analyze both prediction accuracy and bias. Our study spans a wide range of mainstream reasoning models, including instruction-tuned and CoT-augmented variants of DeepSeek-R1 (8B/32B), ChatGPT, and other open-source LLMs. We quantify how biased reasoning steps correlate with incorrect predictions and often lead to stereotype expression. To mitigate reasoning-induced bias, we propose Answer Distribution as Bias Proxy (ADBP), a lightweight mitigation method that detects bias by tracking how model predictions change across incremental reasoning steps. ADBP outperforms a stereotype-free baseline in most cases, mitigating bias and improving the accuracy of LLM outputs. Code will be released upon paper acceptance.

Language model (LM) decoding is based on the next-token prediction (NTP) probability distribution. For neural LMs (e.g., Transformer-based), NTP distribution is essentially a softmax-regularized dot product between an encoded input context (query) and fixed vocabulary representations (keys). In this paper, we study the effect of the key distribution on the NTP distribution, with a focus on whether the similarity between keys will trigger spurious correlations in NTP. Through knowledge-probing tasks, we show that in the NTP distribution, the few top-ranked tokens are typically accurate. However, the middle-ranked prediction is highly biased towards the tokens that are distributionally (not necessarily semantically) similar to these top ones. For instance, if "P" is predicted as the top-1 token, "A"-"Z" will all be ranked high in NTP, no matter whether they can lead to correct decoding results. This hurts the sampling diversity and makes the sampling of correct, long-tail results hopeless and noisy. We attempt to alleviate this issue via a novel in-context method that iteratively pushes the query representation away from explored regions. Specifically, we include the explored decoding results in the context and prompt the LM to generate something else, which encourages the LM to produce a query representation that has small dot products with explored keys. Experiments on knowledge-probing tasks show that our method leads to efficient navigation away from explored keys to correct new keys. We further extend our method to open-ended and chain-of-thought (for reasoning) generation. Experiment results show that ICN contributes to better generation diversity and improved self-consistency voting performance. Finally, we discuss potential training issues caused by the fixed key space together with the challenges and possible ways to address them in future research.

Unfair predictions of machine learning (ML) models impede their broad acceptance in real-world settings. Tackling this arduous challenge first necessitates defining what it means for an ML model to be fair. This has been addressed by the ML community with various measures of fairness that depend on the prediction outcomes of the ML models, either at the group level or the individual level. These fairness measures are limited in that they utilize point predictions, neglecting their variances, or uncertainties, making them susceptible to noise, missingness and shifts in data. In this paper, we first show that an ML model may appear to be fair with existing point-based fairness measures but biased against a demographic group in terms of prediction uncertainties. Then, we introduce new fairness measures based on different types of uncertainties, namely, aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. We demonstrate on many datasets that (i) our uncertainty-based measures are complementary to existing measures of fairness, and (ii) they provide more insights about the underlying issues leading to bias.

While existing AI-generated image detectors report high performance, we identify that this is largely driven by a critical prediction asymmetry: a bias toward the real class that severely limits sensitivity to generated content, especially under standard post-processing operations such as compression and resizing. We hypothesize that this stems from the model's reliance on spurious features, distracting signals that obscure true generative artifacts. To address this, we propose DEAR (Dissect and Prune), which leverages inpainted images to identify and prune these interfering components. Specifically, we find that features strongly aligned to either inpainted or non-inpainted regions are less robust to post-processing. By measuring the alignment between channel activations and inpaint masks, DEAR removes features at both extremes, retaining only those that capture genuine generative artifacts. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances robustness against unseen generators and post-processing, effectively mitigating the prediction asymmetry. Our code is available at https://github.com/dahyedahye/dear.

Evaluating the quality of search, ranking and RAG systems traditionally requires a significant number of human relevance annotations. In recent times, several deployed systems have explored the usage of Large Language Models (LLMs) as automated judges for this task while their inherent biases prevent direct use for metric estimation. We present a statistical framework extending Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) that combines minimal human annotations with LLM judgments to produce reliable estimates of metrics which require sub-instance annotations. Our method requires as few as 100 human-annotated queries and 10,000 unlabeled examples, reducing annotation requirements significantly compared to traditional approaches. We formulate our proposed framework (PRECISE) for inference of relevance uplift for an LLM-based query reformulation application, extending PPI to sub-instance annotations at the query-document level. By reformulating the metric-integration space, we reduced the computational complexity from O(2^|C|) to O(2^K), where |C| represents corpus size (in order of millions). Detailed experiments across prominent retrieval datasets demonstrate that our method reduces the variance of estimates for the business-critical Precision@K metric, while effectively correcting for LLM bias in low-resource settings.

The use of large language models (LLMs) as automated evaluation tools to assess the quality of generated natural language, known as LLMs-as-Judges, has demonstrated promising capabilities and is rapidly gaining widespread attention. However, when applied to pairwise comparisons of candidate responses, LLM-based evaluators often exhibit selection bias. Specifically, their judgments may become inconsistent when the option positions or ID tokens are swapped, compromising the effectiveness and fairness of the evaluation result. To address this challenge, we introduce CalibraEval, a novel label-free method for mitigating selection bias during inference. Specifically, CalibraEval reformulates debiasing as an optimization task aimed at adjusting observed prediction distributions to align with unbiased prediction distributions. To solve this optimization problem, we propose a non-parametric order-preserving algorithm (NOA). This algorithm leverages the partial order relationships between model prediction distributions, thereby eliminating the need for explicit labels and precise mathematical function modeling.Empirical evaluations of LLMs in multiple representative benchmarks demonstrate that CalibraEval effectively mitigates selection bias and improves performance compared to existing debiasing methods. This work marks a step toward building more robust and unbiased automated evaluation frameworks, paving the way for improved reliability in AI-driven assessments

We present a simple baseline for directly estimating the relative pose (rotation and translation, including scale) between two images. Deep methods have recently shown strong progress but often require complex or multi-stage architectures. We show that a handful of modifications can be applied to a Vision Transformer (ViT) to bring its computations close to the Eight-Point Algorithm. This inductive bias enables a simple method to be competitive in multiple settings, often substantially improving over the state of the art with strong performance gains in limited data regimes.

Speech-aware LLMs (SLLMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art ASR performance; however, they still fail to accurately transcribe bias words that appear rarely or never in the training data. Contextual biasing mechanisms are commonly implemented by introducing a predefined bias word list into the model via a text prompt or additional module. For further improvement, predefined bias words can be paired with their phoneme representations as pronunciation cues. Typically, phoneme sequences are generated through a G2P system that covers the target languages and domains of the bias words. Therefore, when a compatible G2P system is unavailable, phoneme-assisted contextual biasing becomes difficult to perform. Moreover, manually adding accurate phoneme sequences requires advanced phonetic knowledge. In this paper, we explore contextual biasing in SLLM based on acoustic cues associated with a set of common words whose pronunciations are partially similar to those of the target bias words. We assume ASR applications in which end users do not require special knowledge of phonetics or utilize G2P tools for inference. For enhanced robustness, we also introduce bias word positional prediction implemented in a multi-output learning fashion. Our method reduces bias word recognition errors by 16.3% compared to baseline systems, including on out-of-domain data.

Language model post-training is often bottlenecked by the need for human-collected preference data, which is expensive and difficult to scale. Reinforcement learning from AI feedback (RLAIF) style approaches that leverage pseudo labels offer an abundant alternative but introduce systematic biases that degrade downstream alignment. Recent general-purpose semi-supervised methods correct for teacher bias using a small set of human-labeled examples, but suffer from high variance especially when human annotations are scarce. To this end, we propose ABC-Align, leveraging abundant pseudo label signal to minimize variance and applying a lightweight, adaptive correction grounded in the human-labeled subset. The correction strength is tuned automatically during training using plug-in estimates of the relevant bias--variance quantities. On LLM alignment with RLHF, DPO, and GRPO where human feedback is scarce, we empirically demonstrate that ABC-Align achieves superior performance over prior semi-supervised baselines in a series of experiments on an increasing scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/SewoongLab/abc-align .

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as research agents, yet their ability to track shifts in research attention is difficult to evaluate because reviews and research ideas lack uniquely verifiable outcomes. We introduce Research Attention Prediction (RAP), a rolling benchmark covering 278 AI/ML fields and 1,390 episodes. At each cut-off, an LLM agent searches a temporally restricted arXiv corpus and predicts the next six months' paper shares across eight frozen research directions. Search generally helps, but all four diagnostic models perform worse than an exact-count exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) baseline in compositional accuracy. We identify two linked bottlenecks. Under cumulative-history access, State carry-forward outperforms direct Forecast for all four diagnostic models; frozen-evidence replay links a shared component of this reversal to Forecast-oriented policies retrieving a smaller share of recent evidence. Even with exact historical activity, future-specific updating remains limited, with only GPT-5.5 plus reopened Search slightly surpassing EWMA. Fine-tuning on realised outcomes improves Qwen3-4B's forecast Spearman correlation by 0.105 on held-out fields at later origins, with gains also on change-rich episodes.

Neural operators learn to map initial conditions to the terminal solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), providing a surrogate for the full operator mapping. This enables rapid prediction across different input configurations. While recent neural operator architectures have demonstrated strong performance on diverse PDE tasks, their behavior under structured distribution shifts remains insufficiently understood. To investigate this, we study operator learning in a wave propagation setting governed by a one-dimensional variable-coefficient wave equation, using two representative architectures, the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) and the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet). To examine their generalization under distribution shifts, we consider structured out-of-distribution (OOD) settings that independently vary input frequency and coefficient smoothness. The results show that under smoothness shifts, both models maintain stable performance, with FNO achieving lower error. In contrast, under frequency shifts, FNO exhibits a sharp increase in error under unseen high-frequency inputs, whereas DeepONet shows milder degradation despite higher overall error. Our analysis reveals that these differences arise from how each architecture represents and responds to variations in frequency structure. Together, these findings highlight a fundamental gap between strong in-distribution performance and generalization under distribution shifts in operator learning, underscoring the role of architectural representation bias in developing more reliable neural operators for physics-based PDE simulations beyond the training distribution.

Recent advances in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have improved robotic manipulation, yet observation-to-action learning remains limited by a fundamental transition realizability gap, manifested in three tightly coupled problems: (i) Transition ambiguity. Visually similar current observations may correspond to different manipulation phases and imply different subsequent transitions. (ii) Prediction--execution mismatch. A visually plausible predicted future observation does not necessarily correspond to a physically realizable transition. (iii) Experience--realization mismatch. A historically executable action pattern may not necessarily realize the intended transition in the current scene and therefore requires context-aware adaptation. Accordingly, we propose UniMPA, a Unified Memory-Prediction-Action model that addresses these problems through a shared action-grounded transition interface. (i) UniMPA introduces Persistent-Selective Future Prediction to resolve transition ambiguity by modeling the intended future state evolution. A persistent latent stream continuously tracks task-level progress, while a transition-critical pixel stream selectively resolves fine-grained interaction changes through memory-grounded prediction. (ii) To assess the physical executability of the anticipated transition, the predicted transition queries a temporal Visual-Action Memory Bank. The bank retrieves historically realized visual-action experience, grounding future prediction in executable evidence. (iii) To adapt executable experience to the current scene, an Action-Visual Memory Bank retrieves visually grounded action prototypes from historical action evolution. Prototype-Biased Flow then shifts the flow source toward a historically supported action manifold for context-aware refinement.

This work introduces a novel graph neural networks (GNNs)-based method to predict stream water temperature and reduce model bias across locations of different income and education levels. Traditional physics-based models often have limited accuracy because they are necessarily approximations of reality. Recently, there has been an increasing interest of using GNNs in modeling complex water dynamics in stream networks. Despite their promise in improving the accuracy, GNNs can bring additional model bias through the aggregation process, where node features are updated by aggregating neighboring nodes. The bias can be especially pronounced when nodes with similar sensitive attributes are frequently connected. We introduce a new method that leverages physical knowledge to represent the node influence in GNNs, and then utilizes physics-based influence to refine the selection and weights over the neighbors. The objective is to facilitate equitable treatment over different sensitive groups in the graph aggregation, which helps reduce spatial bias over locations, especially for those in underprivileged groups. The results on the Delaware River Basin demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in preserving equitable performance across locations in different sensitive groups.

Neural operator surrogates (NO) approximate PDE solutions orders of magnitude faster than numerical solvers, but suffer from spectral bias: high-frequency content is systematically attenuated, limiting reliability where fine-scale structure matters. Sparse sensor measurements of the field are often available too, offering pointwise accuracy without spectral distortion but covering only a small fraction of the domain. We address this by treating NO predictions as auxiliary observations in a diffusion posterior sampling framework. Our method, FreqNO-DPS (https://github.com/niccoloperrone/FreqNO-DPS), combines an unconditional score-based diffusion prior, trained on high-fidelity simulations, with diffusion posterior sampling (DPS) conditioned on sparse observations and guided by a frozen neural operator. Naive integration reintroduces the surrogate's spectral bias; we resolve this with a closed-form, spectrally shaped guidance score that weights the surrogate by its frequency-dependent accuracy and needs no denoiser backpropagation. A distribution-free analysis bounds the approximation error across the frequency-diffusion-time plane and shows the guidance's frequency dependence is preserved regardless of distributional assumptions. On 3D elastic wavefield prediction at 5% and 2% sensor coverage, the method reaches near-zero spectral bias across all bands, where both the surrogate and sensor-only DPS show systematic high-frequency attenuation. Isotropic guidance, the natural baseline, improves pointwise accuracy but carries the bias into the posterior nearly intact, confirming that frequency-dependent calibration is essential, not merely beneficial. The framework needs only paired surrogate/reference data and exploits no problem-specific structure beyond the residual's approximate spectral diagonality, verifiable for new surrogates via the coherence diagnostic we provide.

Agents must infer action outcomes and select actions that maximize a reward signal indicating how close the goal is to being reached. Supervised learning of reward models could introduce biases inherent to training data, limiting generalization to novel goals and environments. In this paper, we investigate whether well-defined world state representations alone can enable accurate reward prediction across domains. To address this, we introduce StateFactory, a factorized representation method that transforms unstructured observations into a hierarchical object-attribute structure using language models. This structured representation allows rewards to be estimated naturally as the semantic similarity between the current state and the goal state under hierarchical constraint. Overall, the compact representation structure induced by StateFactory enables strong reward generalization capabilities. We evaluate on RewardPrediction, a new benchmark dataset spanning five diverse domains and comprising 2,454 unique action-observation trajectories with step-wise ground-truth rewards. Our method shows promising zero-shot results against both VLWM-critic and LLM-as-a-Judge reward models, achieving 60% and 8% lower EPIC distance, respectively. Furthermore, this superior reward quality successfully translates into improved agent planning performance, yielding success rate gains of +21.64% on AlfWorld and +12.40% on ScienceWorld over reactive system-1 policies and enhancing system-2 agent planning. Project Page: https://statefactory.github.io

Image captioning has made substantial progress with huge supporting image collections sourced from the web. However, recent studies have pointed out that captioning datasets, such as COCO, contain gender bias found in web corpora. As a result, learning models could heavily rely on the learned priors and image context for gender identification, leading to incorrect or even offensive errors. To encourage models to learn correct gender features, we reorganize the COCO dataset and present two new splits COCO-GB V1 and V2 datasets where the train and test sets have different gender-context joint distribution. Models relying on contextual cues will suffer from huge gender prediction errors on the anti-stereotypical test data. Benchmarking experiments reveal that most captioning models learn gender bias, leading to high gender prediction errors, especially for women. To alleviate the unwanted bias, we propose a new Guided Attention Image Captioning model (GAIC) which provides self-guidance on visual attention to encourage the model to capture correct gender visual evidence. Experimental results validate that GAIC can significantly reduce gender prediction errors with a competitive caption quality. Our codes and the designed benchmark datasets are available at https://github.com/datamllab/Mitigating_Gender_Bias_In_Captioning_System.

Multi-choice questions (MCQs) serve as a common yet important task format in the research of large language models (LLMs). Our work shows that LLMs exhibit an inherent "selection bias" in MCQs, which refers to LLMs' preferences to select options located at specific positions (like "Option C"). This bias is prevalent across various LLMs, making their performance vulnerable to option position changes in MCQs. We identify that one primary cause resulting in selection bias is option numbering, i.e., the ID symbols A/B/C/D associated with the options. To mitigate selection bias, we propose a new method called PriDe. PriDe first decomposes the observed model prediction distribution into an intrinsic prediction over option contents and a prior distribution over option IDs. It then estimates the prior by permutating option contents on a small number of test samples, which is used to debias the subsequent test samples. We demonstrate that, as a label-free, inference-time method, PriDe achieves a more effective and computation-efficient debiasing than strong baselines. We further show that the priors estimated by PriDe generalize well across different domains, highlighting its practical potential in broader scenarios.

Elections represent a crucial milestone in a nation's ongoing development. To better understand the political rhetoric from various movements, ranging from left to right, we propose a transformer-based model capable of projecting the political orientation of a text on a continuous left-to-right spectrum, represented by a normalized scalar d between -1 and 1. This approach enables analysts to focus on specific segments of the political landscape, such as conservatives, while excluding liberal and far-right movements. Such a task can only be achieved with multiclass classifiers, provided that the desired orientation is incorporated within one of their predefined classes. To determine the most suitable foundation model among 13 candidate transformers for this task, we constructed four distinct corpora. One corpus comprised annotated plenary notes from the German Bundestag, while another was based on an official online decision-making tool, Wahl-O-Mat. The third corpus consisted of articles from 33 newspapers, each identified by its political orientation, and the fourth included 535,200 tweets from 597 members of the 20th and 21st German Bundestag. To mitigate overfitting, we used two distinct corpora for training and two for testing, respectively. For in-domain performance, DeBERTa-large achieved the highest F1 score F1=0.844 as well as for the X (Twitter) out-of-domain test ACC=0.864. Regarding the newspaper out-of-domain test, Gemma2-2B excelled (MAE = 0.172). This study demonstrates that transformer models can recognize political framing in German news at the level of public opinion polls. Our findings suggest that both the model architecture and the availability of domain-specific training data can be as influential as model size for estimating political bias. We discuss methodological limitations and outline directions for improving the robustness of bias measurement.

GUI grounding is a critical capability for enabling GUI agents to execute tasks such as clicking and dragging. However, in complex scenarios like the ScreenSpot-Pro benchmark, existing models often suffer from suboptimal performance. Utilizing the proposed Masked Prediction Distribution (MPD) attribution method, we identify that the primary sources of errors are twofold: high image resolution (leading to precision bias) and intricate interface elements (resulting in ambiguity bias). To address these challenges, we introduce Bias-Aware Manipulation Inference (BAMI), which incorporates two key manipulations, coarse-to-fine focus and candidate selection, to effectively mitigate these biases. Our extensive experimental results demonstrate that BAMI significantly enhances the accuracy of various GUI grounding models in a training-free setting. For instance, applying our method to the TianXi-Action-7B model boosts its accuracy on the ScreenSpot-Pro benchmark from 51.9\% to 57.8\%. Furthermore, ablation studies confirm the robustness of the BAMI approach across diverse parameter configurations, highlighting its stability and effectiveness. Code is available at https://github.com/Neur-IO/BAMI.

With PRECISE, we extended Prediction-Powered Inference to produce bias-corrected estimates of ranking evaluation metrics by combining a small human-labeled set with a large LLM-judged set. PPI is provably unbiased regardless of the LLM judge's error profile. We make it applicable to hierarchical metrics like Precision@K, where annotations are per-document but the metric is per-query, by reducing the output-space computation from O(2^|C|) to O(2^K). On the ESCI benchmark, augmenting 30 human annotations with Claude 3 Sonnet judgments reduces the standard error of Precision@4 estimates from 4.45 to 3.50 (a 21% relative reduction). In a production system, our framework correctly identified the best of three system variants from 100 human labels and 2 hours of domain-expert annotation; A/B testing confirmed this ranking with +407 bps in daily sales.

Renewable resources are strongly dependent on local and large-scale weather situations. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts -- beyond two weeks and up to two months -- can offer significant socioeconomic advantages to the energy sector. This study aims to enhance wind speed predictions using a diffusion model with classifier-free guidance to downscale S2S forecasts of surface wind speed. We propose DiffScale, a diffusion model that super-resolves spatial information for continuous downscaling factors and lead times. Leveraging weather priors as guidance for the generative process of diffusion models, we adopt the perspective of conditional probabilities on sampling super-resolved S2S forecasts. We aim to directly estimate the density associated with the target S2S forecasts at different spatial resolutions and lead times without auto-regression or sequence prediction, resulting in an efficient and flexible model. Synthetic experiments were designed to super-resolve wind speed S2S forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) from a coarse resolution to a finer resolution of ERA5 reanalysis data, which serves as a high-resolution target. The innovative aspect of DiffScale lies in its flexibility to downscale arbitrary scaling factors, enabling it to generalize across various grid resolutions and lead times -without retraining the model- while correcting model errors, making it a versatile tool for improving S2S wind speed forecasts. We achieve a significant improvement in prediction quality, outperforming baselines up to week 3.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

Name-based gender prediction has traditionally categorized individuals as either female or male based on their names, using a binary classification system. That binary approach can be problematic in the cases of gender-neutral names that do not align with any one gender, among other reasons. Relying solely on binary gender categories without recognizing gender-neutral names can reduce the inclusiveness of gender prediction tasks. We introduce an additional gender category, i.e., "neutral", to study and address potential gender biases in Large Language Models (LLMs). We evaluate the performance of several foundational and large language models in predicting gender based on first names only. Additionally, we investigate the impact of adding birth years to enhance the accuracy of gender prediction, accounting for shifting associations between names and genders over time. Our findings indicate that most LLMs identify male and female names with high accuracy (over 80%) but struggle with gender-neutral names (under 40%), and the accuracy of gender prediction is higher for English-based first names than non-English names. The experimental results show that incorporating the birth year does not improve the overall accuracy of gender prediction, especially for names with evolving gender associations. We recommend using caution when applying LLMs for gender identification in downstream tasks, particularly when dealing with non-binary gender labels.

We explore the task of predicting the leading political ideology or bias of news articles. First, we collect and release a large dataset of 34,737 articles that were manually annotated for political ideology -left, center, or right-, which is well-balanced across both topics and media. We further use a challenging experimental setup where the test examples come from media that were not seen during training, which prevents the model from learning to detect the source of the target news article instead of predicting its political ideology. From a modeling perspective, we propose an adversarial media adaptation, as well as a specially adapted triplet loss. We further add background information about the source, and we show that it is quite helpful for improving article-level prediction. Our experimental results show very sizable improvements over using state-of-the-art pre-trained Transformers in this challenging setup.

Transformers replace recurrence with a memory that grows with sequence length and self-attention that enables ad-hoc look ups over past tokens. Consequently, they lack an inherent incentive to compress history into compact latent states with consistent transition rules. This often leads to learning solutions that generalize poorly. We introduce Next-Latent Prediction (NextLat), which extends standard next-token training with self-supervised predictions in the latent space. Specifically, NextLat trains a transformer to learn latent representations that are predictive of its next latent state given the next output token. Theoretically, we show that these latents provably converge to belief states, compressed information of the history necessary to predict the future. This simple auxiliary objective also injects a recurrent inductive bias into transformers, while leaving their architecture, parallel training, and inference unchanged. NextLat effectively encourages the transformer to form compact internal world models with its own belief states and transition dynamics -- a crucial property absent in standard next-token prediction transformers. Empirically, across benchmarks targeting core sequence modeling competencies -- world modeling, reasoning, planning, and language modeling -- NextLat demonstrates significant gains over standard next-token training in downstream accuracy, representation compression, and lookahead planning. NextLat stands as a simple and efficient paradigm for shaping transformer representations toward stronger generalization.

Spurious bias, a tendency to exploit spurious correlations between superficial input attributes and prediction targets, has revealed a severe robustness pitfall in classical machine learning problems. Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), which leverage pretrained vision and language models, have recently demonstrated strong capability in joint vision-language understanding. However, both the presence and severity of spurious biases in MLLMs remain poorly understood. In this work, we address this gap by analyzing the spurious biases in the multimodal setting and uncovering the specific inference-time data patterns that can manifest this problem. To support this analysis, we introduce MM-SpuBench, a comprehensive, human-verified benchmark dataset consisting of image-class pairs annotated with core and spurious attributes, grounded in our taxonomy of nine distinct types of spurious correlations. The benchmark is constructed using human-interpretable attribute information to capture a wide range of spurious patterns reflective of real-world knowledge. Leveraging this benchmark, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary MLLMs with both standard accuracy and the proposed Conditional Generation Likelihood Advantage (CGLA). Our findings highlight the persistence of reliance on spurious correlations and the difficulty of mitigation on our benchmark. We hope this work can inspire new technical strides to mitigate these biases. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/mmbench/MM-SpuBench.

Autoregressive point cloud generation has long lagged behind diffusion-based approaches in quality. The performance gap stems from the fact that autoregressive models impose an artificial ordering on inherently unordered point sets, forcing shape generation to proceed as a sequence of local predictions. This sequential bias emphasizes short-range continuity but undermines the model's capacity to capture long-range dependencies, hindering its ability to enforce global structural properties such as symmetry, consistent topology, and large-scale geometric regularities. Inspired by the level-of-detail (LOD) principle in shape modeling, we propose PointNSP, a coarse-to-fine generative framework that preserves global shape structure at low resolutions and progressively refines fine-grained geometry at higher scales through a next-scale prediction paradigm. This multi-scale factorization aligns the autoregressive objective with the permutation-invariant nature of point sets, enabling rich intra-scale interactions while avoiding brittle fixed orderings. Experiments on ShapeNet show that PointNSP establishes state-of-the-art (SOTA) generation quality for the first time within the autoregressive paradigm. In addition, it surpasses strong diffusion-based baselines in parameter, training, and inference efficiency. Finally, in dense generation with 8,192 points, PointNSP's advantages become even more pronounced, underscoring its scalability potential.

Diffusion-based image super-resolution (SR), which aims to reconstruct high-resolution (HR) images from corresponding low-resolution (LR) observations, faces a fundamental trade-off between inference efficiency and reconstruction quality. The state-of-the-art residual-shifting diffusion framework achieves efficient 4-step inference, yet suffers from severe performance degradation in compact sampling trajectories. This is mainly attributed to two core limitations: the inherent suboptimality of unconstrained random Gaussian noise in intermediate steps, which leads to error accumulation and insufficient LR prior guidance, and the initialization bias caused by naive bicubic upsampling. In this paper, we propose LPNSR, a prior-enhanced efficient diffusion framework to address these issues. We first mathematically derive the closed-form analytical solution of the optimal intermediate noise for the residual-shifting diffusion paradigm, and accordingly design an LR-guided multi-input-aware noise predictor to replace random Gaussian noise, embedding LR structural priors into the reverse process while fully preserving the framework's core efficient residual-shifting mechanism. We further mitigate initial bias with a high-quality pre-upsampling network to optimize the diffusion starting point. With a compact 4-step trajectory, LPNSR can be optimized in an end-to-end manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LPNSR achieves state-of-the-art perceptual performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets, without relying on any large-scale text-to-image priors. The source code of our method can be found at https://github.com/Faze-Hsw/LPNSR.

Machine learning-based Type 2 diabetes risk prediction models obtain good internal validation results but lose effectiveness in real-world applications due to deficient external testing and fairness assessment. We developed a multi-dimensional framework evaluating discrimination, calibration, interpretability, and algorithmic fairness on nationally representative populations. An XGBoost model was trained on NHANES 2015-2020 (n=15,685) using eight non-laboratory predictors: age, sex, race/ethnicity, BMI, smoking status, physical activity, history of heart attack, and history of stroke. External validation was performed on BRFSS 2020-2022 (n=1,285,783) under realistic distribution shift. Internal validation showed good discrimination (AUC=0.794, 95% CI 0.788-0.800), with performance loss on external validation (AUC=0.717, relative decrease: -9.7%, p<0.001). Fairness analysis revealed severe bias: elderly adults (>=60) showed AUC=0.607 vs 0.742 for young adults (difference=0.135, p<0.001); obese individuals showed AUC=0.698 vs 0.735 for normal weight (difference=0.037, p<0.001). Gender showed comparable performance (male=0.723 vs female=0.712, p=0.142). Calibration revealed risk overestimation (Brier score=0.123). SHAP analysis identified age, BMI, and physical activity as primary risk drivers. Populations with highest diabetes risk receive the worst algorithmic performance, underscoring the need for fairness-aware, age-stratified deployment strategies before clinical use.

Protein-protein interaction (PPI) databases do not faithfully reflect biological realities. Instead, they are influenced by study and technical biases that distort certain protein and interaction attributes. Machine learning models can exploit these as learning shortcuts if the negative dataset is not constructed with care. So far, the shortcuts introduced during PPI dataset construction have only been examined in isolation. Here, we systematically characterize both reported and, to our knowledge, previously unreported biases in PPI datasets that lead machine learning models to learn shortcuts instead of biological signal. We analyze HIPPIE, IntAct, and STRING, dedicated PPI databases, as well as two datasets derived from 3D-structural information in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). We show that random data splitting introduces strong topological shortcuts. When train-test protein overlap is removed, the resulting datasets still retain usable shortcuts stemming from self-interactions, taxonomic identity, and functional relatedness, whose prevalence interestingly depends on the data source. We further show that sampling negatives from a set of high-confidence non-interactors, an intuitively appealing choice, can amplify the shortcut stemming from functional relatedness. To detect and mitigate these biases, we provide an open Nextflow pipeline that combines similarity-aware, data-loss-minimizing dataset splitting with bias-minimizing negative sampling, both formulated as integer linear programs. Its key concept of quantifying biases to minimize them through optimization-based negative sampling can, in principle, be extended to any machine learning problem where the pool of negative candidates is much larger than the positives and is thus of interest also beyond PPI prediction.

Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of probabilistic motion forecasts. This can lead to overconfident and unsafe robot behavior, even with robust planners. Instead of assuming full prediction coverage that robust planners require, we propose to make prediction itself risk-aware. We introduce a new prediction objective to learn a risk-biased distribution over trajectories, so that risk evaluation simplifies to an expected cost estimation under this biased distribution. This reduces the sample complexity of the risk estimation during online planning, which is needed for safe real-time performance. Evaluation results in a didactic simulation environment and on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code and a demo are available.

High-throughput drug screening -- using cell imaging or gene expression measurements as readouts of drug effect -- is a critical tool in biotechnology to assess and understand the relationship between the chemical structure and biological activity of a drug. Since large-scale screens have to be divided into multiple experiments, a key difficulty is dealing with batch effects, which can introduce systematic errors and non-biological associations in the data. We propose InfoCORE, an Information maximization approach for COnfounder REmoval, to effectively deal with batch effects and obtain refined molecular representations. InfoCORE establishes a variational lower bound on the conditional mutual information of the latent representations given a batch identifier. It adaptively reweighs samples to equalize their implied batch distribution. Extensive experiments on drug screening data reveal InfoCORE's superior performance in a multitude of tasks including molecular property prediction and molecule-phenotype retrieval. Additionally, we show results for how InfoCORE offers a versatile framework and resolves general distribution shifts and issues of data fairness by minimizing correlation with spurious features or removing sensitive attributes. The code is available at https://github.com/uhlerlab/InfoCORE.

In personalized marketing, uplift models estimate incremental effects by modeling how customer behavior changes under alternative treatments. However, real-world data often exhibit biases - such as selection bias, spillover effects, and unobserved confounding - which adversely affect both estimation accuracy and metric validity. Despite the importance of bias-aware assessment, a lack of systematic studies persists. To bridge this gap, we design a systematic benchmarking framework. Unlike standard predictive tasks, real-world uplift datasets lack counterfactual ground truth, rendering direct metric validation infeasible. Therefore, a semi-synthetic approach serves as a critical enabler for systematic benchmarking, effectively bridging the gap by retaining real-world feature dependencies while providing the ground truth needed to isolate structural biases. Our investigations reveal that: (i) uplift targeting and prediction can manifest as distinct objectives, where proficiency in one does not ensure efficacy in the other; (ii) while many models exhibit inconsistent performance under diverse biases, TARNet shows notable robustness, providing insights for subsequent model design; (iii) evaluation metric stability is linked to mathematical alignment with the ATE, suggesting that ATE-approximating metrics yield more consistent model rankings under structural data imperfections. These findings suggest the need for more robust uplift models and metrics. Code will be released upon acceptance.

In this paper, we cast the problem of task underspecification in causal terms, and develop a method for empirical measurement of spurious associations between gender and gender-neutral entities for unmodified large language models, detecting previously unreported spurious correlations. We then describe a lightweight method to exploit the resulting spurious associations for prediction task uncertainty classification, achieving over 90% accuracy on a Winogender Schemas challenge set. Finally, we generalize our approach to address a wider range of prediction tasks and provide open-source demos for each method described here.

Large Language Models (LLMs), such as the GPT-4 and LLaMA families, have demonstrated considerable success across diverse tasks, including multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, these models exhibit a positional bias, particularly an even worse anchored bias in the GPT-2 family, where they consistently favour the first choice 'A' in MCQs during inference. This anchored bias challenges the integrity of GPT-2's decision-making process, as it skews performance based on the position rather than the content of the choices in MCQs. In this study, we utilise the mechanistic interpretability approach to identify the internal modules within GPT-2 models responsible for this bias. We focus on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) layers and attention heads, using the "logit lens" method to trace and modify the specific value vectors that contribute to the bias. By updating these vectors within MLP and recalibrating attention patterns to neutralise the preference for the first choice 'A', we effectively mitigate the anchored bias. Our interventions not only mitigate the bias but also improve the overall MCQ prediction accuracy for the GPT-2 family across various datasets. This work represents the first comprehensive mechanistic analysis of anchored bias in MCQs within the GPT-2 models, introducing targeted, minimal-intervention strategies that significantly enhance GPT2 model robustness and accuracy in MCQs. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruizheliUOA/Anchored_Bias_GPT2.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

While preliminary findings indicate that multilingual LLMs exhibit reduced bias compared to monolingual ones, a comprehensive understanding of the effect of multilingual training on bias mitigation, is lacking. This study addresses this gap by systematically training six LLMs of identical size (2.6B parameters) and architecture: five monolingual models (English, German, French, Italian, and Spanish) and one multilingual model trained on an equal distribution of data across these languages, all using publicly available data. To ensure robust evaluation, standard bias benchmarks were automatically translated into the five target languages and verified for both translation quality and bias preservation by human annotators. Our results consistently demonstrate that multilingual training effectively mitigates bias. Moreover, we observe that multilingual models achieve not only lower bias but also superior prediction accuracy when compared to monolingual models with the same amount of training data, model architecture, and size.

Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.

Recent advances in natural language processing highlight two key factors for improving reasoning in large language models (LLMs): (i) allocating more test-time compute tends to help on harder problems but often introduces redundancy in the reasoning trace, and (ii) compute is most effective when reasoning is systematic and incremental, forming structured chains of thought (CoTs) akin to human problem-solving. To study these factors in isolation, we introduce a controlled setting based on shortest-path tasks in layered graphs. We train decoder-only transformers on question-trace-answer triples using a custom tokenizer, comparing models trained on optimal bottom-up dynamic programming traces with those trained on longer, valid traces involving backtracking. Surprisingly, with the same training-token budget, models trained on inefficient traces generalize better to unseen graphs. This benefit is not due to length alone-injecting arbitrary redundancy into reasoning traces fails to help and can even hurt performance. Instead, we find that generalization correlates with the model's confidence in next-token prediction, suggesting that long, coherent, and locally incremental traces make the training signal easier to optimize.

This paper studies the training-testing discrepancy (a.k.a. exposure bias) problem for improving the diffusion models. During training, the input of a prediction network at one training timestep is the corresponding ground-truth noisy data that is an interpolation of the noise and the data, and during testing, the input is the generated noisy data. We present a novel training approach, named MixFlow, for improving the performance. Our approach is motivated by the Slow Flow phenomenon: the ground-truth interpolation that is the nearest to the generated noisy data at a given sampling timestep is observed to correspond to a higher-noise timestep (termed slowed timestep), i.e., the corresponding ground-truth timestep is slower than the sampling timestep. MixFlow leverages the interpolations at the slowed timesteps, named slowed interpolation mixture, for post-training the prediction network for each training timestep. Experiments over class-conditional image generation (including SiT, REPA, and RAE) and text-to-image generation validate the effectiveness of our approach. Our approach MixFlow over the RAE models achieve strong generation results on ImageNet: 1.43 FID (without guidance) and 1.10 (with guidance) at 256 x 256, and 1.55 FID (without guidance) and 1.10 (with guidance) at 512 x 512.

The Mean Opinion Score (MOS) serves as the standard metric for speech quality assessment, yet biases in human annotations remain underexplored. We conduct the first systematic analysis of gender bias in MOS, revealing that male listeners consistently assign higher scores than female listeners--a gap that is most pronounced in low-quality speech and gradually diminishes as quality improves. This quality-dependent structure proves difficult to eliminate through simple calibration. We further demonstrate that automated MOS models trained on aggregated labels exhibit predictions skewed toward male standards of perception. To address this, we propose a gender-aware model that learns gender-specific scoring patterns through abstracting binary group embeddings, thereby improving overall and gender-specific prediction accuracy. This study establishes that gender bias in MOS constitutes a systematic, learnable pattern demanding attention in equitable speech evaluation.

Existing studies of LLM-as-judge scoring bias work predominantly at the input-output level: they perturb inputs, measure score deltas, and propose prompt-level mitigations. We argue that the same biases admit a representation-level account in the judge's hidden state, complementary to the input-output view and operationally useful in ways it does not afford. We report three findings, across seven judges, seven bias types, and nine benchmarks. Geometry: baseline judging inputs occupy a tight activation manifold while biased inputs are displaced along a low-dimensional, type-specific subspace that sharpens with depth and is recovered consistently by three families of estimators. Causal control: steering hidden states along this subspace drives scoring in both directions, forward shifts reproducing biased scoring on clean inputs and reverse shifts restoring baseline scoring on biased ones, while matched-norm random directions produce shifts an order of magnitude smaller. Operational: a simple linear projection onto the same bias-direction features anticipates judge failures on three entirely unseen benchmarks, substantially outperforming text-based alternatives. Reading bias as activation geometry, rather than as input-output noise, unifies geometric structure, causal control, and operational prediction within a single framework. The project page is available at https://xzx34.github.io/unfair-judge/

This paper studies contextual biasing with Large Language Models (LLMs), where during second-pass rescoring additional contextual information is provided to a LLM to boost Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) performance. We propose to leverage prompts for a LLM without fine tuning during rescoring which incorporate a biasing list and few-shot examples to serve as additional information when calculating the score for the hypothesis. In addition to few-shot prompt learning, we propose multi-task training of the LLM to predict both the entity class and the next token. To improve the efficiency for contextual biasing and to avoid exceeding LLMs' maximum sequence lengths, we propose dynamic prompting, where we select the most likely class using the class tag prediction, and only use entities in this class as contexts for next token prediction. Word Error Rate (WER) evaluation is performed on i) an internal calling, messaging, and dictation dataset, and ii) the SLUE-Voxpopuli dataset. Results indicate that biasing lists and few-shot examples can achieve 17.8% and 9.6% relative improvement compared to first pass ASR, and that multi-task training and dynamic prompting can achieve 20.0% and 11.3% relative WER improvement, respectively.

Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) require a good model for the controlled process. In this paper I infer inductive biases about a physical system. I use these biases to derive a new neural network architecture that can model this real system that has noise and inertia. The main inductive biases exploited here are: the delayed impact of some inputs on the system and the separability between the temporal component and how the inputs interact to produce the output of a system. The inputs are independently delayed using shifted convolutional kernels. Feature interactions are modelled using a fully connected network that does not have access to temporal information. The available data and the problem setup allow the usage of Self Supervised Learning in order to train the models. The baseline architecture is an Attention based Reccurent network adapted to work with MPC like inputs. The proposed networks are faster, better at exploiting larger data volumes and are almost as good as baseline networks in terms of prediction performance. The proposed architecture family called Delay can be used in a real scenario to control systems with delayed responses with respect to its controls or inputs. Ablation studies show that the presence of delay kernels are vital to obtain any learning in proposed architecture. Code and some experimental data are available online.

Despite the growing demand for accurate surface normal estimation models, existing methods use general-purpose dense prediction models, adopting the same inductive biases as other tasks. In this paper, we discuss the inductive biases needed for surface normal estimation and propose to (1) utilize the per-pixel ray direction and (2) encode the relationship between neighboring surface normals by learning their relative rotation. The proposed method can generate crisp - yet, piecewise smooth - predictions for challenging in-the-wild images of arbitrary resolution and aspect ratio. Compared to a recent ViT-based state-of-the-art model, our method shows a stronger generalization ability, despite being trained on an orders of magnitude smaller dataset. The code is available at https://github.com/baegwangbin/DSINE.

Vision language models (VLMs) show promise in medical diagnosis, but their performance across demographic subgroups when using in-context learning (ICL) remains poorly understood. We examine how the demographic composition of demonstration examples affects VLM performance in two medical imaging tasks: skin lesion malignancy prediction and pneumothorax detection from chest radiographs. Our analysis reveals that ICL influences model predictions through multiple mechanisms: (1) ICL allows VLMs to learn subgroup-specific disease base rates from prompts and (2) ICL leads VLMs to make predictions that perform differently across demographic groups, even after controlling for subgroup-specific disease base rates. Our empirical results inform best-practices for prompting current VLMs (specifically examining demographic subgroup performance, and matching base rates of labels to target distribution at a bulk level and within subgroups), while also suggesting next steps for improving our theoretical understanding of these models.

During lung radiotherapy, the position of infrared reflective objects on the chest can be recorded to estimate the tumor location. However, radiotherapy systems have a latency inherent to robot control limitations that impedes the radiation delivery precision. Prediction with online learning of recurrent neural networks (RNN) allows for adaptation to non-stationary respiratory signals, but classical methods such as RTRL and truncated BPTT are respectively slow and biased. This study investigates the capabilities of unbiased online recurrent optimization (UORO) to forecast respiratory motion and enhance safety in lung radiotherapy. We used 9 observation records of the 3D position of 3 external markers on the chest and abdomen of healthy individuals breathing during intervals from 73s to 222s. The sampling frequency was 10Hz, and the amplitudes of the recorded trajectories range from 6mm to 40mm in the superior-inferior direction. We forecast the 3D location of each marker simultaneously with a horizon value between 0.1s and 2.0s, using an RNN trained with UORO. We compare its performance with an RNN trained with RTRL, LMS, and offline linear regression. We provide closed-form expressions for quantities involved in the loss gradient calculation in UORO, thereby making its implementation efficient. Training and cross-validation were performed during the first minute of each sequence. On average over the horizon values considered and the 9 sequences, UORO achieves the lowest root-mean-square (RMS) error and maximum error among the compared algorithms. These errors are respectively equal to 1.3mm and 8.8mm, and the prediction time per time step was lower than 2.8ms (Dell Intel core i9-9900K 3.60 GHz). Linear regression has the lowest RMS error for the horizon values 0.1s and 0.2s, followed by LMS for horizon values between 0.3s and 0.5s, and UORO for horizon values greater than 0.6s.

Wood materials exhibit complex, spatially varying thermal properties that challenge traditional architectural assumptions of material homogeneity. Although data-driven approaches can directly map wood RGB images to their corresponding thermal responses, they operate as uninterpretable black boxes that prioritize statistical correlation and may absorb experimental noise rather than thermodynamic plausibility. To address these limitations, we present physics-informed deep learning frameworks that integrate partial differential equations (PDEs) to predict pixel-level thermal responses of spatially heterogeneous wood materials using wood RGB images and testbed temperature maps. Specifically, we investigate two distinct approaches to enforcing a normalized 2D steady-state heat transfer equation derived from the general heat transfer equation: Physics-Informed Convolutional Neural Networks (PICNNs), which embed physics as a soft penalty term in the loss function, and Physics-Integrated Convolutional Neural Networks (PInteCNNs), which hard-code an analytical approximator-predictor-corrector solver directly into convolutional neural networks. To validate our proposed approaches, we collect three real-world multimodal datasets of Poplar, Grandis Cross-Cut (Grandis-CC), and Grandis Radial-Cut (Grandis-RC) wood samples. We further demonstrate that embedding physical inductive biases successfully balances predictive accuracy, physical interpretability, and intra-species diversity, outperforming data-driven approaches in handling complex wood material heterogeneity and enabling the extraction of interpretable physical parameters. Project: https://zekifayes.github.io/pim

Gender-bias stereotypes have recently raised significant ethical concerns in natural language processing. However, progress in detection and evaluation of gender bias in natural language understanding through inference is limited and requires further investigation. In this work, we propose an evaluation methodology to measure these biases by constructing a challenge task that involves pairing gender-neutral premises against a gender-specific hypothesis. We use our challenge task to investigate state-of-the-art NLI models on the presence of gender stereotypes using occupations. Our findings suggest that three models (BERT, RoBERTa, BART) trained on MNLI and SNLI datasets are significantly prone to gender-induced prediction errors. We also find that debiasing techniques such as augmenting the training dataset to ensure a gender-balanced dataset can help reduce such bias in certain cases.

Due to their similarity-based learning objectives, pretrained sentence encoders often internalize stereotypical assumptions that reflect the social biases that exist within their training corpora. In this paper, we describe several kinds of stereotypes concerning different communities that are present in popular sentence representation models, including pretrained next sentence prediction and contrastive sentence representation models. We compare such models to textual entailment models that learn language logic for a variety of downstream language understanding tasks. By comparing strong pretrained models based on text similarity with textual entailment learning, we conclude that the explicit logic learning with textual entailment can significantly reduce bias and improve the recognition of social communities, without an explicit de-biasing process

Various design settings for in-context learning (ICL), such as the choice and order of the in-context examples, can bias a model toward a particular prediction without being reflective of an understanding of the task. While many studies discuss these design choices, there have been few systematic investigations into categorizing them and mitigating their impact. In this work, we define a typology for three types of label biases in ICL for text classification: vanilla-label bias, context-label bias, and domain-label bias (which we conceptualize and detect for the first time). Our analysis demonstrates that prior label bias calibration methods fall short of addressing all three types of biases. Specifically, domain-label bias restricts LLMs to random-level performance on many tasks regardless of the choice of in-context examples. To mitigate the effect of these biases, we propose a simple bias calibration method that estimates a language model's label bias using random in-domain words from the task corpus. After controlling for this estimated bias when making predictions, our novel domain-context calibration significantly improves the ICL performance of GPT-J and GPT-3 on a wide range of tasks. The gain is substantial on tasks with large domain-label bias (up to 37% in Macro-F1). Furthermore, our results generalize to models with different scales, pretraining methods, and manually-designed task instructions, showing the prevalence of label biases in ICL.

Many machine learning algorithms are trained and evaluated by splitting data from a single source into training and test sets. While such focus on in-distribution learning scenarios has led to interesting advancement, it has not been able to tell if models are relying on dataset biases as shortcuts for successful prediction (e.g., using snow cues for recognising snowmobiles), resulting in biased models that fail to generalise when the bias shifts to a different class. The cross-bias generalisation problem has been addressed by de-biasing training data through augmentation or re-sampling, which are often prohibitive due to the data collection cost (e.g., collecting images of a snowmobile on a desert) and the difficulty of quantifying or expressing biases in the first place. In this work, we propose a novel framework to train a de-biased representation by encouraging it to be different from a set of representations that are biased by design. This tactic is feasible in many scenarios where it is much easier to define a set of biased representations than to define and quantify bias. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method across a variety of synthetic and real-world biases; our experiments show that the method discourages models from taking bias shortcuts, resulting in improved generalisation. Source code is available at https://github.com/clovaai/rebias.

Compact convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have witnessed exceptional improvements in performance in recent years. However, they still fail to provide the same predictive power as CNNs with a large number of parameters. The diverse and even abundant features captured by the layers is an important characteristic of these successful CNNs. However, differences in this characteristic between large CNNs and their compact counterparts have rarely been investigated. In compact CNNs, due to the limited number of parameters, abundant features are unlikely to be obtained, and feature diversity becomes an essential characteristic. Diverse features present in the activation maps derived from a data point during model inference may indicate the presence of a set of unique descriptors necessary to distinguish between objects of different classes. In contrast, data points with low feature diversity may not provide a sufficient amount of unique descriptors to make a valid prediction; we refer to them as random predictions. Random predictions can negatively impact the optimization process and harm the final performance. This paper proposes addressing the problem raised by random predictions by reshaping the standard cross-entropy to make it biased toward data points with a limited number of unique descriptive features. Our novel Bias Loss focuses the training on a set of valuable data points and prevents the vast number of samples with poor learning features from misleading the optimization process. Furthermore, to show the importance of diversity, we present a family of SkipNet models whose architectures are brought to boost the number of unique descriptors in the last layers. Our Skipnet-M can achieve 1% higher classification accuracy than MobileNetV3 Large.

The overestimation bias is one of the major impediments to accurate off-policy learning. This paper investigates a novel way to alleviate the overestimation bias in a continuous control setting. Our method---Truncated Quantile Critics, TQC,---blends three ideas: distributional representation of a critic, truncation of critics prediction, and ensembling of multiple critics. Distributional representation and truncation allow for arbitrary granular overestimation control, while ensembling provides additional score improvements. TQC outperforms the current state of the art on all environments from the continuous control benchmark suite, demonstrating 25% improvement on the most challenging Humanoid environment.

Category-Agnostic Pose Estimation (CAPE) localizes keypoints across diverse object categories with a single model, using one or a few annotated support images. Recent works have shown that using a pose graph (i.e., treating keypoints as nodes in a graph rather than isolated points) helps handle occlusions and break symmetry. However, these methods assume a static pose graph with equal-weight edges, leading to suboptimal results. We introduce EdgeCape, a novel framework that overcomes these limitations by predicting the graph's edge weights which optimizes localization. To further leverage structural priors, we propose integrating Markovian Structural Bias, which modulates the self-attention interaction between nodes based on the number of hops between them. We show that this improves the model's ability to capture global spatial dependencies. Evaluated on the MP-100 benchmark, which includes 100 categories and over 20K images, EdgeCape achieves state-of-the-art results in the 1-shot setting and leads among similar-sized methods in the 5-shot setting, significantly improving keypoint localization accuracy. Our code is publicly available.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

This paper uses the MIMIC-IV dataset to examine the fairness and bias in an XGBoost binary classification model predicting the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS). Highlighting the critical role of the ICU in managing critically ill patients, the study addresses the growing strain on ICU capacity. It emphasizes the significance of LOS prediction for resource allocation. The research reveals class imbalances in the dataset across demographic attributes and employs data preprocessing and feature extraction. While the XGBoost model performs well overall, disparities across race and insurance attributes reflect the need for tailored assessments and continuous monitoring. The paper concludes with recommendations for fairness-aware machine learning techniques for mitigating biases and the need for collaborative efforts among healthcare professionals and data scientists.

Text-guided image editing involves modifying a source image based on a language instruction and, typically, requires changes to only small local regions. However, existing approaches generate the entire target image rather than selectively regenerate only the intended editing areas. This results in (1) unnecessary computational costs and (2) a bias toward reconstructing non-editing regions, which compromises the quality of the intended edits. To resolve these limitations, we propose to formulate image editing as Next Editing-token Prediction (NEP) based on autoregressive image generation, where only regions that need to be edited are regenerated, thus avoiding unintended modification to the non-editing areas. To enable any-region editing, we propose to pre-train an any-order autoregressive text-to-image (T2I) model. Once trained, it is capable of zero-shot image editing and can be easily adapted to NEP for image editing, which achieves a new state-of-the-art on widely used image editing benchmarks. Moreover, our model naturally supports test-time scaling (TTS) through iteratively refining its generation in a zero-shot manner. The project page is: https://nep-bigai.github.io/

Accurate spatial prediction of power integrity issues, such as IR drop, is critical for reliable VLSI design. However, traditional simulation-based solvers are computationally expensive and difficult to scale. We address this challenge by reformulating IR drop estimation as a pixel-wise regression task on heterogeneous multi-channel physical maps derived from circuit layouts. Prior learning-based methods treat all input layers (e.g., metal, via, and current maps) equally, ignoring their varying importance to prediction accuracy. To tackle this, we propose a novel Weakness-Aware Channel Attention (WACA) mechanism, which recursively enhances weak feature channels while suppressing over-dominant ones through a two-stage gating strategy. Integrated into a ConvNeXtV2-based attention U-Net, our approach enables adaptive and balanced feature representation. On the public ICCAD-2023 benchmark, our method outperforms the ICCAD-2023 contest winner by reducing mean absolute error by 61.1% and improving F1-score by 71.0%. These results demonstrate that channel-wise heterogeneity is a key inductive bias in physical layout analysis for VLSI.

External skills provide language-model agents with reusable procedural knowledge, yet how models use such knowledge after it is supplied remains poorly understood. We identify Procedural Exposure Bias (PEB), the tendency of language models to increasingly favor an action as its associated procedural pattern is repeatedly exposed in a skill, even when the interaction state and action relevance remain unchanged. We find that PEB strongly depends on how procedural knowledge is represented: presenting the same content visually substantially attenuates exposure-induced shifts in action preference relative to textual presentation. Further analysis shows that this attenuation primarily arises from visual encoding rather than structured layout. Although repeated procedural signals remain recoverable from Visual representations, they exert a weaker influence on downstream action prediction, distinguishing signal accessibility from its use as action evidence. This effect also extends to executable action selection, where increasing exposure more strongly favors the corresponding action under Text than Visual. Layer-wise analyses show that exposure-dependent action evidence becomes more pronounced toward the model output, with stronger evidence under Text, while activation interventions reveal architecture-specific roles of internal components in transmitting or counteracting the preference shift. Complete-agent evaluations across ALFWorld, ScienceWorld, and WebShop further show that Visual skills achieve higher macro-average task success than Text skills for all four evaluated models. These findings establish skill representation as an important factor governing how procedural knowledge is translated into agent decisions. All code is available at https://github.com/NEUIR/Vis-Skill.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel physics-based schemes designed to enforce the conservation of global dry air mass, moisture budget, and total atmospheric energy in AIWP models. The schemes are highly modular, allowing for seamless integration into a wide range of AI model architectures. Forecast experiments are conducted to demonstrate the benefit of conservation schemes using FuXi, an example AIWP model, modified and adapted for 1.0-degree grid spacing. Verification results show that the conservation schemes can guide the model in producing forecasts that obey conservation laws. The forecast skills of upper-air and surface variables are also improved, with longer forecast lead times receiving larger benefits. Notably, large performance gains are found in the total precipitation forecasts, owing to the reduction of drizzle bias. The proposed conservation schemes establish a foundation for implementing other physics-based schemes in the future. They also provide a new way to integrate atmospheric domain knowledge into the design and refinement of AIWP models.

Tracking Any Point (TAP) in a video is a challenging computer vision problem with many demonstrated applications in robotics, video editing, and 3D reconstruction. Existing methods for TAP rely heavily on complex tracking-specific inductive biases and heuristics, limiting their generality and potential for scaling. To address these challenges, we present TAPNext, a new approach that casts TAP as sequential masked token decoding. Our model is causal, tracks in a purely online fashion, and removes tracking-specific inductive biases. This enables TAPNext to run with minimal latency, and removes the temporal windowing required by many existing state of art trackers. Despite its simplicity, TAPNext achieves a new state-of-the-art tracking performance among both online and offline trackers. Finally, we present evidence that many widely used tracking heuristics emerge naturally in TAPNext through end-to-end training.

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have demonstrated remarkable potential in delivering accurate forecasts at significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. However, challenges remain in ensuring the physical consistency of MLWP outputs, particularly in deterministic settings. This study presents FastNet, a graph neural network (GNN)-based global prediction model, and investigates the impact of alternative loss function designs on improving the physical realism of its forecasts. We explore three key modifications to the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss: (1) a modified spherical harmonic (MSH) loss that penalises spectral amplitude errors to reduce blurring and enhance small-scale structure retention; (2) inclusion of horizontal gradient terms in the loss to suppress non-physical artefacts; and (3) an alternative wind representation that decouples speed and direction to better capture extreme wind events. Results show that while the MSH and gradient-based losses alone may slightly degrade RMSE scores, when trained in combination the model exhibits very similar MSE performance to an MSE-trained model while at the same time significantly improving spectral fidelity and physical consistency. The alternative wind representation further improves wind speed accuracy and reduces directional bias. Collectively, these findings highlight the importance of loss function design as a mechanism for embedding domain knowledge into MLWP models and advancing their operational readiness.

When a large language model fails a reasoning task, it is often assumed to lack the underlying capability. However, this conflates a genuine absence of reasoning with a late-stage output bottleneck. We observe a consistent readout gap across diverse reasoning benchmarks: hidden-state probes successfully decode correct answers even when native sequence scoring completely collapses due to structural biases. To test whether instance-specific logic survives this collapse, we introduce a diagnostic protocol using a minimal, target-label-free additive correction. Fitting just two parameters on as few as 25 unlabeled examples recovers 9--34 accuracy points for Qwen3.5 models, transferring successfully to OLMo-2-1B and Llama-3.1-8B. Crucially, these recovered decisions persist on hard instances unresolved by simple lexical overlap and significantly exceed count-preserving permutation baselines. Our results show that many apparent zero-shot reasoning deficits are expression failures masking intact internal logic, urging a narrower interpretation of benchmark evaluations.

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models have shown an impressive generation quality, although their long sampling chain leads to high computational costs. In this paper, we observe that a long sampling chain also leads to an error accumulation phenomenon, which is similar to the exposure bias problem in autoregressive text generation. Specifically, we note that there is a discrepancy between training and testing, since the former is conditioned on the ground truth samples, while the latter is conditioned on the previously generated results. To alleviate this problem, we propose a very simple but effective training regularization, consisting in perturbing the ground truth samples to simulate the inference time prediction errors. We empirically show that, without affecting the recall and precision, the proposed input perturbation leads to a significant improvement in the sample quality while reducing both the training and the inference times. For instance, on CelebA 64times64, we achieve a new state-of-the-art FID score of 1.27, while saving 37.5% of the training time. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/forever208/DDPM-IP

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

This paper presents a motion data augmentation scheme incorporating motion synthesis encouraging diversity and motion correction imposing physical plausibility. This motion synthesis consists of our modified Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) and Inverse Kinematics (IK). In this VAE, our proposed sampling-near-samples method generates various valid motions even with insufficient training motion data. Our IK-based motion synthesis method allows us to generate a variety of motions semi-automatically. Since these two schemes generate unrealistic artifacts in the synthesized motions, our motion correction rectifies them. This motion correction scheme consists of imitation learning with physics simulation and subsequent motion debiasing. For this imitation learning, we propose the PD-residual force that significantly accelerates the training process. Furthermore, our motion debiasing successfully offsets the motion bias induced by imitation learning to maximize the effect of augmentation. As a result, our method outperforms previous noise-based motion augmentation methods by a large margin on both Recurrent Neural Network-based and Graph Convolutional Network-based human motion prediction models. The code is available at https://github.com/meaten/MotionAug.

Diffusion models have demonstrated impressive generative capabilities, but their exposure bias problem, described as the input mismatch between training and sampling, lacks in-depth exploration. In this paper, we systematically investigate the exposure bias problem in diffusion models by first analytically modelling the sampling distribution, based on which we then attribute the prediction error at each sampling step as the root cause of the exposure bias issue. Furthermore, we discuss potential solutions to this issue and propose an intuitive metric for it. Along with the elucidation of exposure bias, we propose a simple, yet effective, training-free method called Epsilon Scaling to alleviate the exposure bias. We show that Epsilon Scaling explicitly moves the sampling trajectory closer to the vector field learned in the training phase by scaling down the network output (Epsilon), mitigating the input mismatch between training and sampling. Experiments on various diffusion frameworks (ADM, DDPM/DDIM, EDM, LDM), unconditional and conditional settings, and deterministic vs. stochastic sampling verify the effectiveness of our method. Remarkably, our ADM-ES, as a SOTA stochastic sampler, obtains 2.17 FID on CIFAR-10 under 100-step unconditional generation. The code is available at https://github.com/forever208/ADM-ES and https://github.com/forever208/EDM-ES.

With the rapid growth in language processing applications, fairness has emerged as an important consideration in data-driven solutions. Although various fairness definitions have been explored in the recent literature, there is lack of consensus on which metrics most accurately reflect the fairness of a system. In this work, we propose a new formulation : ACCUMULATED PREDICTION SENSITIVITY, which measures fairness in machine learning models based on the model's prediction sensitivity to perturbations in input features. The metric attempts to quantify the extent to which a single prediction depends on a protected attribute, where the protected attribute encodes the membership status of an individual in a protected group. We show that the metric can be theoretically linked with a specific notion of group fairness (statistical parity) and individual fairness. It also correlates well with humans' perception of fairness. We conduct experiments on two text classification datasets : JIGSAW TOXICITY, and BIAS IN BIOS, and evaluate the correlations between metrics and manual annotations on whether the model produced a fair outcome. We observe that the proposed fairness metric based on prediction sensitivity is statistically significantly more correlated with human annotation than the existing counterfactual fairness metric.

Understanding a student's problem-solving strategy can have a significant impact on effective math learning using Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and Adaptive Instructional Systems (AISs). For instance, the ITS/AIS can better personalize itself to correct specific misconceptions that are indicated by incorrect strategies, specific problems can be designed to improve strategies and frustration can be minimized by adapting to a student's natural way of thinking rather than trying to fit a standard strategy for all. While it may be possible for human experts to identify strategies manually in classroom settings with sufficient student interaction, it is not possible to scale this up to big data. Therefore, we leverage advances in Machine Learning and AI methods to perform scalable strategy prediction that is also fair to students at all skill levels. Specifically, we develop an embedding called MVec where we learn a representation based on the mastery of students. We then cluster these embeddings with a non-parametric clustering method where we progressively learn clusters such that we group together instances that have approximately symmetrical strategies. The strategy prediction model is trained on instances sampled from these clusters. This ensures that we train the model over diverse strategies and also that strategies from a particular group do not bias the DNN model, thus allowing it to optimize its parameters over all groups. Using real world large-scale student interaction datasets from MATHia, we implement our approach using transformers and Node2Vec for learning the mastery embeddings and LSTMs for predicting strategies. We show that our approach can scale up to achieve high accuracy by training on a small sample of a large dataset and also has predictive equality, i.e., it can predict strategies equally well for learners at diverse skill levels.

We present a neural network structure, FramePack, to train next-frame (or next-frame-section) prediction models for video generation. The FramePack compresses input frames to make the transformer context length a fixed number regardless of the video length. As a result, we are able to process a large number of frames using video diffusion with computation bottleneck similar to image diffusion. This also makes the training video batch sizes significantly higher (batch sizes become comparable to image diffusion training). We also propose an anti-drifting sampling method that generates frames in inverted temporal order with early-established endpoints to avoid exposure bias (error accumulation over iterations). Finally, we show that existing video diffusion models can be finetuned with FramePack, and their visual quality may be improved because the next-frame prediction supports more balanced diffusion schedulers with less extreme flow shift timesteps.

Foundation models are premised on the idea that sequence prediction can uncover deeper domain understanding, much like how Kepler's predictions of planetary motion later led to the discovery of Newtonian mechanics. However, evaluating whether these models truly capture deeper structure remains a challenge. We develop a technique for evaluating foundation models that examines how they adapt to synthetic datasets generated from some postulated world model. Our technique measures whether the foundation model's inductive bias aligns with the world model, and so we refer to it as an inductive bias probe. Across multiple domains, we find that foundation models can excel at their training tasks yet fail to develop inductive biases towards the underlying world model when adapted to new tasks. We particularly find that foundation models trained on orbital trajectories consistently fail to apply Newtonian mechanics when adapted to new physics tasks. Further analysis reveals that these models behave as if they develop task-specific heuristics that fail to generalize.

In-context learning (ICL) is a critical emerging capability of large language models (LLMs), enabling few-shot learning during inference by including a few demonstrations (demos) in the prompt. However, it has been found that ICL's performance can be sensitive to the choices of demos and their order. This paper investigates an unexplored new positional bias of ICL for the first time: we observe that the predictions and accuracy can drift drastically when the positions of demos, the system prompt, and the user message in LLM input are varied. We refer to this bias as DEMOS' POSITION IN PROMPT (DPP) bias. We design a systematic evaluation pipeline to study this type of positional bias across classification, question answering, summarization, and reasoning tasks. We introduce two metrics, ACCURACY-CHANGE and PREDICTION-CHANGE, to quantify net gains and output volatility induced by changes in the demos' position. Extensive experiments on ten LLMs from four open-source model families (QWEN, LLAMA3, MISTRAL, COHERE) verify that the bias significantly affects their accuracy and predictions: placing demos at the start of the prompt yields the most stable and accurate outputs with gains of up to +6 points. In contrast, placing demos at the end of the user message flips over 30\% of predictions without improving correctness on QA tasks. Smaller models are most affected by this sensitivity, though even large models remain marginally affected on complex tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) offer a powerful opportunity to simulate the results of social science experiments. In this work, we demonstrate that finetuning LLMs directly on individual-level responses from past experiments meaningfully improves the accuracy of such simulations across diverse social science domains. We construct SocSci210 via an automatic pipeline, a dataset comprising 2.9 million responses from 400,491 participants in 210 open-source social science experiments. Through finetuning, we achieve multiple levels of generalization. In completely unseen studies, our strongest model, Socrates-Qwen-14B, produces predictions that are 26% more aligned with distributions of human responses to diverse outcome questions under varying conditions relative to its base model (Qwen2.5-14B), outperforming GPT-4o by 13%. By finetuning on a subset of conditions in a study, generalization to new unseen conditions is particularly robust, improving by 71%. Since SocSci210 contains rich demographic information, we reduce demographic parity, a measure of bias, by 10.6% through finetuning. Because social sciences routinely generate rich, topic-specific datasets, our findings indicate that finetuning on such data could enable more accurate simulations for experimental hypothesis screening. We release our data, models and finetuning code at stanfordhci.github.io/socrates.

LLM-as-a-judge has become a promising paradigm for using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate natural language generation (NLG), but the uncertainty of its evaluation remains underexplored. This lack of reliability may limit its deployment in many applications. This work presents the first framework to analyze the uncertainty by offering a prediction interval of LLM-based scoring via conformal prediction. Conformal prediction constructs continuous prediction intervals from a single evaluation run, and we design an ordinal boundary adjustment for discrete rating tasks. We also suggest a midpoint-based score within the interval as a low-bias alternative to raw model score and weighted average. We perform extensive experiments and analysis, which show that conformal prediction can provide valid prediction interval with coverage guarantees. We also explore the usefulness of interval midpoint and judge reprompting for better judgment.

We expose a significant popularity bias in state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs), which achieve up to 34% higher accuracy on famous buildings compared to ordinary ones, indicating a reliance on memorization over generalizable understanding. To systematically investigate this, we introduce the largest open benchmark for this task: the YearGuessr dataset, a collection of 55,546 building images with multi-modal attributes from 157 countries, annotated with continuous ordinal labels of their construction year (1001-2024), GPS data, and page-view counts as a proxy for popularity. Using this dataset, we frame the construction year prediction task as ordinal regression and introduce popularity-aware interval accuracy metrics to quantify this bias. Our resulting benchmark of 30+ models, including our YearCLIP model, confirms that VLMs excel on popular, memorized items but struggle significantly with unrecognized subjects, exposing a critical flaw in their reasoning capabilities. Project page: https://sytwu.github.io/BeyondMemo/

Organic crystal structure prediction (CSP) is a requirement for computational modelling of organic solids, but traditionally costs several CPU-years per molecule. Generative models such as OXtal dramatically reduce this cost by sampling stable organic crystal structures directly. However, OXtal forgoes explicit lattice parametrization in favour of modelling large crops of the bulk material with expensive triangle layers, which can incur a computational cost of minutes per molecule. In this paper, we reduce this to seconds with Clari, a large-scale flow matching model that generates redundancy-free unit cells and replaces triangle layers with pure pair-bias attention. Clari requires only atom types and bonds as input and does not need an RDKit-sanitizable input molecule, which expands its applicability to challenging chemistries such as fullerenes, metal complexes, and atom clusters. We further ablate key design choices such as auxiliary losses, timestep distributions, noise priors, and self-conditioning. On OXtal's test sets, we surpass OXtal's solve rate while obtaining a speedup of 15-30times. Because Clari also models explicit hydrogens, it supports inference-time scaling via direct energy ranking, without any decoration or relaxation step. When generating 150 crystals and selecting the top-30 by energy, we further improve solve rate while maintaining a speedup of 5-8times. We also introduce the CSD Teaching Subset as a new test split of diverse and complex molecules for future benchmarking. Our contributions enable CSP within seconds, making large-scale virtual screening of organic solids practical. Code is available at https://github.com/aspuru-guzik-group/clari.

Vision-Language Pre-training (VLP) models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in numerous cross-modal tasks. Since they are optimized to capture the statistical properties of intra- and inter-modality, there remains risk to learn social biases presented in the data as well. In this work, we (1) introduce a counterfactual-based bias measurement CounterBias to quantify the social bias in VLP models by comparing the [MASK]ed prediction probabilities of factual and counterfactual samples; (2) construct a novel VL-Bias dataset including 24K image-text pairs for measuring gender bias in VLP models, from which we observed that significant gender bias is prevalent in VLP models; and (3) propose a VLP debiasing method FairVLP to minimize the difference in the [MASK]ed prediction probabilities between factual and counterfactual image-text pairs for VLP debiasing. Although CounterBias and FairVLP focus on social bias, they are generalizable to serve as tools and provide new insights to probe and regularize more knowledge in VLP models.

Machine learning models are susceptible to being misled by biases in training data that emphasize incidental correlations over the intended learning task. In this study, we demonstrate the impact of data bias on the performance of a machine learning model designed to predict the synthesizability likelihood of crystal compounds. The model performs a binary classification on labeled crystal samples. Despite using the same architecture for the machine learning model, we showcase how the model's learning and prediction behavior differs once trained on distinct data. We use two data sets for illustration: a mixed-source data set that integrates experimental and computational crystal samples and a single-source data set consisting of data exclusively from one computational database. We present simple procedures to detect data bias and to evaluate its effect on the model's performance and generalization. This study reveals how inconsistent, unbalanced data can propagate bias, undermining real-world applicability even for advanced machine learning techniques.

Robust 3D semantic occupancy is crucial for legged/humanoid robots, yet most semantic scene completion (SSC) systems target wheeled platforms with forward-facing sensors. We present OneOcc, a vision-only panoramic SSC framework designed for gait-introduced body jitter and 360° continuity. OneOcc combines: (i) Dual-Projection fusion (DP-ER) to exploit the annular panorama and its equirectangular unfolding, preserving 360° continuity and grid alignment; (ii) Bi-Grid Voxelization (BGV) to reason in Cartesian and cylindrical-polar spaces, reducing discretization bias and sharpening free/occupied boundaries; (iii) a lightweight decoder with Hierarchical AMoE-3D for dynamic multi-scale fusion and better long-range/occlusion reasoning; and (iv) plug-and-play Gait Displacement Compensation (GDC) learning feature-level motion correction without extra sensors. We also release two panoramic occupancy benchmarks: QuadOcc (real quadruped, first-person 360°) and Human360Occ (H3O) (CARLA human-ego 360° with RGB, Depth, semantic occupancy; standardized within-/cross-city splits). OneOcc sets a new state of the art on QuadOcc, outperforming strong vision baselines and remaining competitive with classical LiDAR baselines; on H3O it gains +3.83 mIoU (within-city) and +8.08 (cross-city). Modules are lightweight, enabling deployable full-surround perception for legged/humanoid robots. Datasets and code will be publicly available at https://github.com/MasterHow/OneOcc.

Radiomap blind prediction aims to infer radiomaps from observable representations of the propagation environment and base station configuration without field measurements. In practice, the observable representations are inherently incomplete. Thus, the target radiomap is not fully determined by the inputs when generalizing to unseen configurations or environments. Under incomplete observation, we establish a population-level theory of deterministic radiomap blind prediction that identifies the conditional mean as its optimal target and separates prediction error into reducible predictor approximation and irreducible uncertainty caused by missing physical information. The framework further characterizes the train-test risk gap and the uncertainty reduction enabled by observation enrichment. Building on it, we reveal the dual role of propagation priors: they provide physically grounded guidance, yet their implementable forms may bias the attainable predictor. This motivates RadioDecomp, which treats a prior-guided predictor as a correctable base and learns its remaining predictable discrepancy through residual refinement. To evaluate RadioDecomp across distinct propagation-prior designs, we instantiate it with a feature-guided monolithic base and a LoS-Shadow structured base, yielding RadioFR and RadioLSR, respectively. Across random, cross-configuration, and cross-environment settings, experiments confirm the benefit of propagation-related representations and show that both instantiations improve upon their respective bases. Further controlled studies on base capacity, training-support coverage, and observation coarsening corroborate the proposed analysis.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

Lexical difficulty prediction is a fundamental problem in language learning and readability assessment, requiring models to estimate word difficulty across different first-language (L1) backgrounds. However, existing approaches rely on regression-only training with scalar supervision, which does not explicitly structure the representation space, limiting their ability to capture cross-lingual alignment and ordinal difficulty. To mitigate these issues, we propose Context-Aligned Contrastive Regression, which integrates Ridge regression ensemble with two complementary objectives, i.e., Cross-View Context and Ordinal Soft Contrastive Learning. Experiments on three L1 datasets show that (i) contrastive objectives improve cross-lingual representation alignment while preserving language-specific nuances, (ii) the learned representations capture the ordinal structure of lexical difficulty, and (iii) the ensemble effectively mitigates systematic biases of individual models, leading to more stable performance across difficulty levels.

Understanding human visual attention on a scene over time has applications in domains such as interface design and inferring cognitive states. Modeling visual scanpaths has historically relied on specialized architectures with hand-crafted priors. While these architectures can model fixation sequences, their rigid structural biases restrict easy extendability and flexible conditioning. For instance, integrating task-specific instructions or adapting to distinct viewer identities requires custom, disjoint architectural additions. We frame scanpath prediction purely as a discrete sequence modeling task. By mapping coordinates into a text vocabulary, we leverage the pretrained representations of Vision-Language Models. This framing absorbs diverse factors of variation: simple prompting allows for global conditioning, such as providing viewer identities to capture personalized biases, or task-specific objectives like visual search. The framework can also integrate per-fixation attributes, such as individual fixation durations, alongside spatial locations. The autoregressive alignment enables the scalable, exact computation of per-fixation log-likelihoods, directly equivalent to the commonly used Information Gain (IG) metric. Our model, DeepGaze3.5-VL, establishes a new state-of-the-art across multiple datasets, achieving 2.18 bits of IG on MIT1003, a 46% improvement over DeepGaze III. This advantage persists even when baselines use identical high-capacity vision encoders. Beyond predictive performance, our generative framework serves as a powerful computational tool for direct behavioral interventions, allowing for controlled in-silico simulations that would be experimentally difficult or impossible to conduct in vivo. We demonstrate this ability by performing controlled interventions on the durations of pre-saccadic fixations, recovering known oculomotor phenomena purely from data.

Accurate forecasting of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall or storms is critical for risk management and disaster mitigation. Although high-resolution radar observations have spurred extensive research on nowcasting models, precipitation nowcasting remains particularly challenging due to pronounced spatial locality, intricate fine-scale rainfall structures, and variability in forecasting horizons. While recent diffusion-based generative ensembles show promising results, they are computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time applications. In contrast, deterministic models are computationally efficient but remain biased toward normal rainfall. Furthermore, the benchmark datasets commonly used in prior studies are themselves skewed--either dominated by ordinary rainfall events or restricted to extreme rainfall episodes--thereby hindering general applicability in real-world settings. In this paper, we propose exPreCast, an efficient deterministic framework for generating finely detailed radar forecasts, and introduce a newly constructed balanced radar dataset from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), which encompasses both ordinary precipitation and extreme events. Our model integrates local spatiotemporal attention, a texture-preserving cubic dual upsampling decoder, and a temporal extractor to flexibly adjust forecasting horizons. Experiments on established benchmarks (SEVIR and MeteoNet) as well as on the balanced KMA dataset demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, delivering accurate and reliable nowcasts across both normal and extreme rainfall regimes.

Pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs), such as CLIP, have demonstrated impressive zero-shot recognition capability, but still underperform in dense prediction tasks. Self-distillation recently is emerging as a promising approach for fine-tuning VLMs to better adapt to local regions without requiring extensive annotations. However, previous state-of-the-art approaches often suffer from significant `foreground bias', where models tend to wrongly identify background regions as foreground objects. To alleviate this issue, we propose DenseVLM, a framework designed to learn unbiased region-language alignment from powerful pre-trained VLM representations. To alleviate this issue, we propose DenseVLM, a framework designed to learn unbiased region-language alignment from powerful pre-trained VLM representations. DenseVLM leverages the pre-trained VLM to retrieve categories for unlabeled regions and then decouples the interference between foreground and background features. We show that DenseVLM can directly replace the original VLM in open-vocabulary object detection and image segmentation methods, leading to notable performance improvements. Furthermore, it exhibits promising zero-shot scalability when training on more extensive and diverse datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/HVision-NKU/DenseVLM.

Watch time prediction (WTP) has emerged as a pivotal task in short video recommendation systems, designed to quantify user engagement through continuous interaction modeling. Predicting users' watch times on videos often encounters fundamental challenges, including wide value ranges and imbalanced data distributions, which can lead to significant estimation bias when directly applying regression techniques. Recent studies have attempted to address these issues by converting the continuous watch time estimation into an ordinal regression task. While these methods demonstrate partial effectiveness, they exhibit notable limitations: (1) the discretization process frequently relies on bucket partitioning, inherently reducing prediction flexibility and accuracy and (2) the interdependencies among different partition intervals remain underutilized, missing opportunities for effective error correction. Inspired by language modeling paradigms, we propose a novel Generative Regression (GR) framework that reformulates WTP as a sequence generation task. Our approach employs structural discretization to enable nearly lossless value reconstruction while maintaining prediction fidelity. Through carefully designed vocabulary construction and label encoding schemes, each watch time is bijectively mapped to a token sequence. To mitigate the training-inference discrepancy caused by teacher-forcing, we introduce a curriculum learning with embedding mixup strategy that gradually transitions from guided to free-generation modes. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art approaches on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. We also perform online A/B testing on the Kuaishou App to confirm the real-world effectiveness. The results conclusively show that GR outperforms existing techniques significantly.

Background Precise prediction of cancer types is vital for cancer diagnosis and therapy. Important cancer marker genes can be inferred through predictive model. Several studies have attempted to build machine learning models for this task however none has taken into consideration the effects of tissue of origin that can potentially bias the identification of cancer markers. Results In this paper, we introduced several Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models that take unstructured gene expression inputs to classify tumor and non-tumor samples into their designated cancer types or as normal. Based on different designs of gene embeddings and convolution schemes, we implemented three CNN models: 1D-CNN, 2D-Vanilla-CNN, and 2D-Hybrid-CNN. The models were trained and tested on combined 10,340 samples of 33 cancer types and 731 matched normal tissues of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Our models achieved excellent prediction accuracies (93.9-95.0%) among 34 classes (33 cancers and normal). Furthermore, we interpreted one of the models, known as 1D-CNN model, with a guided saliency technique and identified a total of 2,090 cancer markers (108 per class). The concordance of differential expression of these markers between the cancer type they represent and others is confirmed. In breast cancer, for instance, our model identified well-known markers, such as GATA3 and ESR1. Finally, we extended the 1D-CNN model for prediction of breast cancer subtypes and achieved an average accuracy of 88.42% among 5 subtypes. The codes can be found at https://github.com/chenlabgccri/CancerTypePrediction.

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit socio-economic biases that can propagate into downstream tasks. While prior studies have questioned whether intrinsic bias in LLMs affects fairness at the downstream task level, this work empirically investigates the connection. We present a unified evaluation framework to compare intrinsic bias mitigation via concept unlearning with extrinsic bias mitigation via counterfactual data augmentation (CDA). We examine this relationship through real-world financial classification tasks, including salary prediction, employment status, and creditworthiness assessment. Using three open-source LLMs, we evaluate models both as frozen embedding extractors and as fine-tuned classifiers. Our results show that intrinsic bias mitigation through unlearning reduces intrinsic gender bias by up to 94.9%, while also improving downstream task fairness metrics, such as demographic parity by up to 82%, without compromising accuracy. Our framework offers practical guidance on where mitigation efforts can be most effective and highlights the importance of applying early-stage mitigation before downstream deployment.

Multimodal large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as automated evaluators in clinical settings, yet their scoring behavior on ordinal clinical scales remains poorly understood. We benchmark three frontier LLM families against supervised deep learning models for scoring Clock Drawing Test (CDT) images on two public datasets using the Shulman rubric. While fully fine-tuned Vision Transformers achieve the best calibration (MAE 0.52, within-1 accuracy 91%), zero-shot LLMs remain competitive on tolerance-based agreement (GPT-5 MAE 0.67, within-1 accuracy 92%) despite higher absolute error. However, per-score analysis reveals that all three LLM families exhibit a pronounced central tendency effect (systematic endpoint compression): predictions are systematically compressed toward the middle of the scale, with over-prediction at the low end (score 0 to 1) and under-prediction at the high end (score 5 to 4). This effect disproportionately affects the clinically critical extremes where accurate scoring most impacts screening decisions for cognitive impairment. Targeted ablations show that neither few-shot exemplars spanning the full score range nor removing clinical terminology from the prompt eliminates the effect. Our findings extend the LLM-as-a-judge bias literature from NLP evaluation to clinical assessment, and highlight the need for calibration-aware evaluation and post-hoc calibration before deploying LLM-based raters in high-stakes screening workflows.

Accurately predicting experimentally realizable 3D molecular crystal structures from their 2D chemical graphs is a long-standing open challenge in computational chemistry called crystal structure prediction (CSP). Efficiently solving this problem has implications ranging from pharmaceuticals to organic semiconductors, as crystal packing directly governs the physical and chemical properties of organic solids. In this paper, we introduce OXtal, a large-scale 100M parameter all-atom diffusion model that directly learns the conditional joint distribution over intramolecular conformations and periodic packing. To efficiently scale OXtal, we abandon explicit equivariant architectures imposing inductive bias arising from crystal symmetries in favor of data augmentation strategies. We further propose a novel crystallization-inspired lattice-free training scheme, Stoichiometric Stochastic Shell Sampling (S^4), that efficiently captures long-range interactions while sidestepping explicit lattice parametrization -- thus enabling more scalable architectural choices at all-atom resolution. By leveraging a large dataset of 600K experimentally validated crystal structures (including rigid and flexible molecules, co-crystals, and solvates), OXtal achieves orders-of-magnitude improvements over prior ab initio machine learning CSP methods, while remaining orders of magnitude cheaper than traditional quantum-chemical approaches. Specifically, OXtal recovers experimental structures with conformer RMSD_1<0.5 Å and attains over 80\% packing similarity rate, demonstrating its ability to model both thermodynamic and kinetic regularities of molecular crystallization.

Designing emotionally intelligent conversational systems to provide comfort and advice to people experiencing distress is a compelling area of research. Recently, with advancements in large language models (LLMs), end-to-end dialogue agents without explicit strategy prediction steps have become prevalent. However, implicit strategy planning lacks transparency, and recent studies show that LLMs' inherent preference bias towards certain socio-emotional strategies hinders the delivery of high-quality emotional support. To address this challenge, we propose decoupling strategy prediction from language generation, and introduce a novel dialogue strategy prediction framework, EmoDynamiX, which models the discourse dynamics between user fine-grained emotions and system strategies using a heterogeneous graph for better performance and transparency. Experimental results on two ESC datasets show EmoDynamiX outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods with a significant margin (better proficiency and lower preference bias). Our approach also exhibits better transparency by allowing backtracing of decision making.

Despite recent advances in Monocular Depth Estimation, state-of-the-art depth foundation models remain vulnerable to robustness issues. Particularly, even slight camera rolls can result in substantial degradation in depth estimations. We attribute this problem to a previously overlooked phenomenon, termed the Horizontal Prior, which is a manifestation of long-tailed distribution bias: most training images are captured in approximately horizontal orientations due to human visual preferences and photographic habits. While intuitive remedies such as re-balanced data augmentation and horizon leveling provide partial improvements, they fail to fully address the issue. In this paper, we introduce Invariant Depth Constraint (ID-Constraint), a training-time supervision strategy that improves roll robustness by fine-tuning and jointly regularizing the depth backbone with a series of geometric and spatial reasoning tasks. These auxiliary objectives encourage the backbone to learn rotation-stable, depth-relevant representations, while the auxiliary prediction heads are discarded after training, leaving the original inference architecture unchanged. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets across four roll settings demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.