Daily Papers

Although appearance-based point-of-gaze (PoG) estimation has improved, the estimators still struggle to generalize across individuals due to personal differences. Therefore, person-specific calibration is required for accurate PoG estimation. However, calibrated PoG estimators are often sensitive to head pose variations. To address this, we investigate the key factors influencing calibrated estimators and explore pose-robust calibration strategies. Specifically, we first construct a benchmark, MobilePoG, which includes facial images from 32 individuals focusing on designated points under either fixed or continuously changing head poses. Using this benchmark, we systematically analyze how the diversity of calibration points and head poses influences estimation accuracy. Our experiments show that introducing a wider range of head poses during calibration improves the estimator's ability to handle pose variation. Building on this insight, we propose a dynamic calibration strategy in which users fixate on calibration points while moving their phones. This strategy naturally introduces head pose variation during a user-friendly and efficient calibration process, ultimately producing a better calibrated PoG estimator that is less sensitive to head pose variations than those using conventional calibration strategies. Codes and datasets are available at our project page.

Because stress is subjective and is expressed differently from one person to another, generic stress prediction models (i.e., models that predict the stress of any person) perform crudely. Only person-specific ones (i.e., models that predict the stress of a preordained person) yield reliable predictions, but they are not adaptable and costly to deploy in real-world environments. For illustration, in an office environment, a stress monitoring system that uses person-specific models would require collecting new data and training a new model for every employee. Moreover, once deployed, the models would deteriorate and need expensive periodic upgrades because stress is dynamic and depends on unforeseeable factors. We propose a simple, yet practical and cost effective calibration technique that derives an accurate and personalized stress prediction model from physiological samples collected from a large population. We validate our approach on two stress datasets. The results show that our technique performs much better than a generic model. For instance, a generic model achieved only a 42.5% accuracy. However, with only 100 calibration samples, we raised its accuracy to 95.2% We also propose a blueprint for a stress monitoring system based on our strategy, and we debate its merits and limitation. Finally, we made public our source code and the relevant datasets to allow other researchers to replicate our findings.

Inter-personal anatomical differences limit the accuracy of person-independent gaze estimation networks. Yet there is a need to lower gaze errors further to enable applications requiring higher quality. Further gains can be achieved by personalizing gaze networks, ideally with few calibration samples. However, over-parameterized neural networks are not amenable to learning from few examples as they can quickly over-fit. We embrace these challenges and propose a novel framework for Few-shot Adaptive GaZE Estimation (FAZE) for learning person-specific gaze networks with very few (less than or equal to 9) calibration samples. FAZE learns a rotation-aware latent representation of gaze via a disentangling encoder-decoder architecture along with a highly adaptable gaze estimator trained using meta-learning. It is capable of adapting to any new person to yield significant performance gains with as few as 3 samples, yielding state-of-the-art performance of 3.18 degrees on GazeCapture, a 19% improvement over prior art. We open-source our code at https://github.com/NVlabs/few_shot_gaze

3D human pose estimation has been a long-standing challenge in computer vision and graphics, where multi-view methods have significantly progressed but are limited by the tedious calibration processes. Existing multi-view methods are restricted to fixed camera pose and therefore lack generalization ability. This paper presents a novel Probabilistic Triangulation module that can be embedded in a calibrated 3D human pose estimation method, generalizing it to uncalibration scenes. The key idea is to use a probability distribution to model the camera pose and iteratively update the distribution from 2D features instead of using camera pose. Specifically, We maintain a camera pose distribution and then iteratively update this distribution by computing the posterior probability of the camera pose through Monte Carlo sampling. This way, the gradients can be directly back-propagated from the 3D pose estimation to the 2D heatmap, enabling end-to-end training. Extensive experiments on Human3.6M and CMU Panoptic demonstrate that our method outperforms other uncalibration methods and achieves comparable results with state-of-the-art calibration methods. Thus, our method achieves a trade-off between estimation accuracy and generalizability. Our code is in https://github.com/bymaths/probabilistic_triangulation

Visual dubbing is the process of generating lip motions of an actor in a video to synchronise with given audio. Recent advances have made progress towards this goal but have not been able to produce an approach suitable for mass adoption. Existing methods are split into either person-generic or person-specific models. Person-specific models produce results almost indistinguishable from reality but rely on long training times using large single-person datasets. Person-generic works have allowed for the visual dubbing of any video to any audio without further training, but these fail to capture the person-specific nuances and often suffer from visual artefacts. Our method, based on data-efficient neural rendering priors, overcomes the limitations of existing approaches. Our pipeline consists of learning a deferred neural rendering prior network and actor-specific adaptation using neural textures. This method allows for high-quality visual dubbing with just a few seconds of data, that enables video dubbing for any actor - from A-list celebrities to background actors. We show that we achieve state-of-the-art in terms of visual quality and recognisability both quantitatively, and qualitatively through two user studies. Our prior learning and adaptation method generalises to limited data better and is more scalable than existing person-specific models. Our experiments on real-world, limited data scenarios find that our model is preferred over all others. The project page may be found at https://dubbingforeveryone.github.io/

An activation-steering coefficient sets intervention strength, but requesting a particular degree of persona expression requires a behavioral scale. We study persona dosing: controlling a language model through a trait description and a requested mean intensity. PersonaDose specializes a shared, description-conditioned FLAS controller on persona responses, then calibrates its flow time against measured trait expression. Training responses are not paired with requested target intensities. Across Llama-3.1-8B, Qwen3-8B, and Gemma-3-4B, PersonaDose raises core-trait expression at the Persona Vectors coherence floor of 75 by 33.2, 18.3, and 17.8 points over contrastive activation addition. Calibration-selected settings retain an expression advantage on held-out questions, although the coherence floor does not hold for every trait there. Across seven trained traits, calibrated requests yield mean targeting errors of 4.7-6.2 points over 14-22 calibration-reachable targets out of 28 per model. These results separate the behavioral range learned by a controller from the accuracy of requests within that range.

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, has numerous flaws which we outline, and there is no clear empirical understanding of how its choices affect conclusions in practice, and what recommendations there are to counteract its flaws. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive empirical study of choices in calibration measures including measuring all probabilities rather than just the maximum prediction, thresholding probability values, class conditionality, number of bins, bins that are adaptive to the datapoint density, and the norm used to compare accuracies to confidences. To analyze the sensitivity of calibration measures, we study the impact of optimizing directly for each variant with recalibration techniques. Across MNIST, Fashion MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet, we find that conclusions on the rank ordering of recalibration methods is drastically impacted by the choice of calibration measure. We find that conditioning on the class leads to more effective calibration evaluations, and that using the L2 norm rather than the L1 norm improves both optimization for calibration metrics and the rank correlation measuring metric consistency. Adaptive binning schemes lead to more stablity of metric rank ordering when the number of bins vary, and is also recommended. We open source a library for the use of our calibration measures.

While multimodal large language models have advanced across text, image, and audio, personalization research has remained primarily vision-language, with unified omnimodal benchmarking that jointly covers text, image, and audio still limited, and lacking the methodological rigor to account for absent-persona scenarios or systematic grounding studies. We introduce Omni-Persona, the first comprehensive benchmark for omnimodal personalization. We formalize the task as cross-modal routing over the Persona Modality Graph, encompassing 4 task groups and 18 fine-grained tasks across {sim}750 items. To rigorously diagnose grounding behavior, we propose Calibrated Accuracy (mathrm{Cal)}, which jointly rewards correct grounding and appropriate abstention, incorporating absent-persona queries within a unified evaluation framework. On our dedicated experiments, three diagnostic findings emerge: (i) open-source models show a consistent audio-vs-visual grounding gap that RLVR partially narrows via dense rule-based supervision; (ii) answerable recall and parameter scale are incomplete diagnostics, since strong recall can coexist with absent-persona hallucination and larger models do not always achieve higher Cal, exposing calibration as a separate evaluation axis; and (iii) SFT is bounded by the difficulty of constructing annotated ground-truth supervision at scale, while RLVR generalizes more consistently through outcome-level verifiable feedback yet drifts toward conservative behavior and lower generation quality under our reward design. Omni-Persona thus serves as a diagnostic framework that surfaces the pitfalls of omnimodal personalization, guiding future post-training and reward design.

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

We present AnyCalib, a method for calibrating the intrinsic parameters of a camera from a single in-the-wild image, that is agnostic to the camera model. Current methods are predominantly tailored to specific camera models and/or require extrinsic cues, such as the direction of gravity, to be visible in the image. In contrast, we argue that the perspective and distortion cues inherent in images are sufficient for model-agnostic camera calibration. To demonstrate this, we frame the calibration process as the regression of the rays corresponding to each pixel. We show, for the first time, that this intermediate representation allows for a closed-form recovery of the intrinsics for a wide range of camera models, including but not limited to: pinhole, Brown-Conrady and Kannala-Brandt. Our approach also applies to edited -- cropped and stretched -- images. Experimentally, we demonstrate that AnyCalib consistently outperforms alternative methods, including 3D foundation models, despite being trained on orders of magnitude less data. Code is available at https://github.com/javrtg/AnyCalib.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

We present PersonNeRF, a method that takes a collection of photos of a subject (e.g. Roger Federer) captured across multiple years with arbitrary body poses and appearances, and enables rendering the subject with arbitrary novel combinations of viewpoint, body pose, and appearance. PersonNeRF builds a customized neural volumetric 3D model of the subject that is able to render an entire space spanned by camera viewpoint, body pose, and appearance. A central challenge in this task is dealing with sparse observations; a given body pose is likely only observed by a single viewpoint with a single appearance, and a given appearance is only observed under a handful of different body poses. We address this issue by recovering a canonical T-pose neural volumetric representation of the subject that allows for changing appearance across different observations, but uses a shared pose-dependent motion field across all observations. We demonstrate that this approach, along with regularization of the recovered volumetric geometry to encourage smoothness, is able to recover a model that renders compelling images from novel combinations of viewpoint, pose, and appearance from these challenging unstructured photo collections, outperforming prior work for free-viewpoint human rendering.

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions underlying split conformal calibration. First, we derive a conservation law and lower bound showing that pooled calibration incurs irreducible group-wise coverage distortion at a scale set by cross-group quantile heterogeneity. Second, we demonstrate that the two leading fairness definitions for conformal prediction, Equalized Coverage and Equalized Set Size, are fundamentally in tension. Third, we quantify the cost of moving between policies which treat groups separately or pool them. Experiments on synthetic and real data confirm the same bidirectional trade-off after finite-sample calibration. Our results show that, for the policy families studied here, calibration choice does not remove cross-group heterogeneity; it determines whether the resulting distortion appears in the coverage or size dimension, providing a principled lens for analyzing fairness-oriented calibration choices in practice.

Calibration is a fundamental property of a good predictive model: it requires that the model predicts correctly in proportion to its confidence. Modern neural networks, however, provide no strong guarantees on their calibration -- and can be either poorly calibrated or well-calibrated depending on the setting. It is currently unclear which factors contribute to good calibration (architecture, data augmentation, overparameterization, etc), though various claims exist in the literature. We propose a systematic way to study the calibration error: by decomposing it into (1) calibration error on the train set, and (2) the calibration generalization gap. This mirrors the fundamental decomposition of generalization. We then investigate each of these terms, and give empirical evidence that (1) DNNs are typically always calibrated on their train set, and (2) the calibration generalization gap is upper-bounded by the standard generalization gap. Taken together, this implies that models with small generalization gap (|Test Error - Train Error|) are well-calibrated. This perspective unifies many results in the literature, and suggests that interventions which reduce the generalization gap (such as adding data, using heavy augmentation, or smaller model size) also improve calibration. We thus hope our initial study lays the groundwork for a more systematic and comprehensive understanding of the relation between calibration, generalization, and optimization.

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the existing methods apply binary calibration in a pairwise or one-vs-rest fashion. We propose a natively multiclass calibration method applicable to classifiers from any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions and generalising the beta calibration method from binary classification. It is easily implemented with neural nets since it is equivalent to log-transforming the uncalibrated probabilities, followed by one linear layer and softmax. Experiments demonstrate improved probabilistic predictions according to multiple measures (confidence-ECE, classwise-ECE, log-loss, Brier score) across a wide range of datasets and classifiers. Parameters of the learned Dirichlet calibration map provide insights to the biases in the uncalibrated model.

In this paper, we uncover a systematic bias in the evaluation paradigm of adopting large language models~(LLMs), e.g., GPT-4, as a referee to score and compare the quality of responses generated by candidate models. We find that the quality ranking of candidate responses can be easily hacked by simply altering their order of appearance in the context. This manipulation allows us to skew the evaluation result, making one model appear considerably superior to the other, e.g., Vicuna-13B could beat ChatGPT on 66 over 80 tested queries with ChatGPT as an evaluator. To address this issue, we propose a calibration framework with three simple yet effective strategies: 1) Multiple Evidence Calibration, which requires the evaluator model to generate multiple evaluation evidence before assigning ratings; 2) Balanced Position Calibration, which aggregates results across various orders to determine the final score; 3) Human-in-the-Loop Calibration, which introduces a balanced position diversity entropy to measure the difficulty of each example and seeks human assistance when needed. We also manually annotate the "win/tie/lose" outcomes of responses from ChatGPT and Vicuna-13B in the Vicuna Benchmark's question prompt, and extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach successfully mitigates evaluation bias, resulting in closer alignment with human judgments. We release our code and human annotation at https://github.com/i-Eval/FairEval to facilitate future research.

Learning humanoid loco-manipulation from human demonstrations rests on observing how locomotion, posture, and object interaction evolve together as tasks unfold. Scaling collection across diverse environments, in turn, favors lightweight, portable capture systems. Yet, existing datasets provide only partial views of this coordination. Thus, we introduce EgoExplorer, a 100-hour vision-motion-touch observatory of human loco-manipulation built with a wearable system. With an emphasis on professional activities, its continuous recordings align egocentric video with reconstructed whole-body motion, fine-grained finger articulation, and tactile observations, accompanied by step-level descriptions. To achieve this coverage with sparse body sensing, we develop the Calibrate-Complete-Constrain pipeline. Concretely, reusable calibration fixes participant geometry and sensor attachments before motion inference to disentangle mounting offsets from articulation. A temporal prior then completes unobserved joint motion, while layered constraints promote measurement agreement, temporal continuity, and geometric consistency, properties that motion plausibility alone does not guarantee. Against tracker-fitted references, the method reduces body-point error by 71.9% relative to the strongest baseline; matched evaluations also show gains in hand stability and contact estimation. Preliminary studies explore multimodal generation and conditioning alongside humanoid retargeting with whole-body control in simulation.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) on language modeling and emergent capabilities make them a promising reference-free evaluator of natural language generation quality, and a competent alternative to human evaluation. However, hindered by the closed-source or high computational demand to host and tune, there is a lack of practice to further calibrate an off-the-shelf LLM-based evaluator towards better human alignment. In this work, we propose AutoCalibrate, a multi-stage, gradient-free approach to automatically calibrate and align an LLM-based evaluator toward human preference. Instead of explicitly modeling human preferences, we first implicitly encompass them within a set of human labels. Then, an initial set of scoring criteria is drafted by the language model itself, leveraging in-context learning on different few-shot examples. To further calibrate this set of criteria, we select the best performers and re-draft them with self-refinement. Our experiments on multiple text quality evaluation datasets illustrate a significant improvement in correlation with expert evaluation through calibration. Our comprehensive qualitative analysis conveys insightful intuitions and observations on the essence of effective scoring criteria.

Recent benchmarks rely on user simulators to evaluate AI agents in multi-turn interaction. While existing simulation techniques demonstrate surface fidelity to human style and behavior, ecologically valid interactive benchmarking also requires alignment in when and how agents fail across simulated and real user populations. We find that existing simulators lack outcome calibration: agreement with observed success rates and failure patterns when real users interact with the same agent. We introduce Calibrated User Embeddings (CUE), a framework that both encodes observed sessions and samples continuous representations, then decodes them into persona commands to steer LLMs to act as user simulators without training. Through this, we evaluate user-conditioned replay of past sessions and aggregate metric agreement when sampling novel personas for the same tasks. On τ^2-Bench, CUEd simulators commit fewer simulator-attributed errors and more faithfully reproduce real-user agent failure modes, aggregate success rates, and outcomes for specific task-user pairs than other persona-based simulation methods. These gains coexist with competitive user fidelity as measured using metrics established in prior work. After being fit to mostly customer support interactions, the same CUEd simulators generalize to document creation, math tutoring, and casual conversation, and remain effective across different simulator LLMs without CUE retraining.

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*, a phenomenon where models tend to be more overconfident in low proximity data (i.e., data lying in the sparse region of the data distribution) compared to high proximity samples, and thus suffer from inconsistent miscalibration across different proximity samples. We examine the problem over 504 pretrained ImageNet models and observe that: 1) Proximity bias exists across a wide variety of model architectures and sizes; 2) Transformer-based models are relatively more susceptible to proximity bias than CNN-based models; 3) Proximity bias persists even after performing popular calibration algorithms like temperature scaling; 4) Models tend to overfit more heavily on low proximity samples than on high proximity samples. Motivated by the empirical findings, we propose ProCal, a plug-and-play algorithm with a theoretical guarantee to adjust sample confidence based on proximity. To further quantify the effectiveness of calibration algorithms in mitigating proximity bias, we introduce proximity-informed expected calibration error (PIECE) with theoretical analysis. We show that ProCal is effective in addressing proximity bias and improving calibration on balanced, long-tail, and distribution-shift settings under four metrics over various model architectures. We believe our findings on proximity bias will guide the development of *fairer and better-calibrated* models, contributing to the broader pursuit of trustworthy AI. Our code is available at: https://github.com/MiaoXiong2320/ProximityBias-Calibration.

Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, but a single calibration threshold can still spread that coverage unevenly, over-covering easy regions and under-covering hard ones. SimplexUQ is, to our knowledge, the first benchmark and reproducible protocol for measuring this allocation problem on simplex-valued predictions; it compares existing conformal wrappers rather than proposing a new one. Its task suite, SimplexTasks-12, combines six controlled synthetic regimes with six frozen-predictor real tasks spanning class probabilities, topic mixtures, spectral abundances, cell-type fractions, age distributions, and emotion mixtures. Each comparison fixes the predictor, score, and response-free stratification map, varies only the wrapper, and reports marginal coverage, worst-stratum coverage, max disparity, and within-task radius and compute. Global calibration can look valid while failing badly: on CIFAR-10 it attains 0.900 marginal coverage but only 0.542 in the worst entropy stratum, and Mondrian calibration raises that stratum to 0.886 while reducing max disparity from 0.358 to 0.022. No wrapper dominates, however. Under smooth synthetic heterogeneity, several repairs are competitive; fixed-map analyses show that rankings depend on the evaluation groups and protocol; and in a 12-task comparison, Mondrian has lower disparity on its single target partition for all 12 tasks, whereas BatchMVP has lower disparity over overlapping groups on five. These are empirical comparisons, not new coverage guarantees. A controlled predictor-bias sweep shows that removing predictor bias only partly reduces global-threshold disparity. We release task cards, result provenance, permitted derived arrays, and rebuild instructions, and treat wrapper selection as a diagnostic comparison rather than a universal ranking.

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating distribution and do not require model refitting. The framework addresses, among other examples, false discovery rate control in multi-label classification, intersection-over-union control in instance segmentation, and the simultaneous control of the type-1 error of outlier detection and confidence set coverage in classification or regression. Our main insight is to reframe the risk-control problem as multiple hypothesis testing, enabling techniques and mathematical arguments different from those in the previous literature. We use the framework to provide new calibration methods for several core machine learning tasks, with detailed worked examples in computer vision and tabular medical data.

In legal decisions, split votes (SV) occur when judges cannot reach a unanimous decision, posing a difficulty for lawyers who must navigate diverse legal arguments and opinions. In high-stakes domains, understanding the alignment of perceived difficulty between humans and AI systems is crucial to build trust. However, existing NLP calibration methods focus on a classifier's awareness of predictive performance, measured against the human majority class, overlooking inherent human label variation (HLV). This paper explores split votes as naturally observable human disagreement and value pluralism. We collect judges' vote distributions from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), and present SV-ECHR, a case outcome classification (COC) dataset with SV information. We build a taxonomy of disagreement with SV-specific subcategories. We further assess the alignment of perceived difficulty between models and humans, as well as confidence- and human-calibration of COC models. We observe limited alignment with the judge vote distribution. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic exploration of calibration to human judgements in legal NLP. Our study underscores the necessity for further research on measuring and enhancing model calibration considering HLV in legal decision tasks.

The increased use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in sensitive domains leads to growing interest in how their confidence scores correspond to fairness and bias. This study examines the alignment between LLM-predicted confidence and human-annotated bias judgments. Focusing on gender bias, the research investigates probability confidence calibration in contexts involving gendered pronoun resolution. The goal is to evaluate if calibration metrics based on predicted confidence scores effectively capture fairness-related disparities in LLMs. The results show that, among the six state-of-the-art models, Gemma-2 demonstrates the worst calibration according to the gender bias benchmark. The primary contribution of this work is a fairness-aware evaluation of LLMs' confidence calibration, offering guidance for ethical deployment. In addition, we introduce a new calibration metric, Gender-ECE, designed to measure gender disparities in resolution tasks.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

In 3D point cloud understanding, the core challenge lies in accurately capturing discriminative features within complex neighborhoods, which directly affects the execution precision of downstream tasks such as embodied AI and autonomous driving. Existing methods explore feature correlation discrimination but are limited to point-level spatial distribution or channel responses, enabling only coarse-grained level evaluation. For modern multi-scale point cloud networks, such coarse-grained metrics inevitably incur significant information loss in deeper layers. To address this issue, we propose a novel network equipped with a channel-level metric-based enhancement mechanism, termed the PointCRA network. Our core idea is to introduce temporal trend variation as a new evaluation dimension to avoid the information loss caused by weight dimension collapse in existing spatial and channel attention mechanisms. On this basis, we construct a multi-level calibration framework guided by neighborhood homogeneity for weight calibration, and design a dedicated loss function to enhance channel discriminability. The module effectively leverages the intrinsic feature priors of deep networks to adaptively correct the feature aggregation process, offering strong interpretability with low parameter overhead. Furthermore, our proposed method exhibits strong transferability, interpretability, and parameter efficiency. We validate the proposed method effectiveness on diverse datasets and benchmark models, and further demonstrate its rationality through extensive analytical experiments. Our PointCRA achieves 77.5% mIoU on the S3DIS dataset, 90.4% OA on the ScanObjectNN dataset, and 87.4% instance mIoU on the ShapeNetPart dataset. The code and pretrained weights are publicly available on GitHub:

This paper proposes a new metric to measure the calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers, called test-based calibration error (TCE). TCE incorporates a novel loss function based on a statistical test to examine the extent to which model predictions differ from probabilities estimated from data. It offers (i) a clear interpretation, (ii) a consistent scale that is unaffected by class imbalance, and (iii) an enhanced visual representation with repect to the standard reliability diagram. In addition, we introduce an optimality criterion for the binning procedure of calibration error metrics based on a minimal estimation error of the empirical probabilities. We provide a novel computational algorithm for optimal bins under bin-size constraints. We demonstrate properties of TCE through a range of experiments, including multiple real-world imbalanced datasets and ImageNet 1000.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Calibration, the alignment of predicted probabilities with true outcome frequencies, is essential for reliable decision-making. While extensively studied for classification and regression, calibration has not been formally addressed for probabilistic label ranking, where the goal is to predict a distribution over orderings of a label set. Naively treating rankings as classes ignores their structure and fails to capture important modalities such as pairwise and top-k predictions. We formalize calibration for label ranking and develop a hierarchy of notions covering full rankings, sub-rankings, and top-k rankings. We prove that full-rank calibration implies the others but not conversely, and sub-ranking and top-k calibration are incomparable. Empirically, we find popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with substantial differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics. Applying our framework to RLHF reward models, we find that calibration correlates strongly but not perfectly with benchmark accuracy, suggesting it captures a meaningful quality dimension beyond top-1 accuracy. These findings motivate future work on understanding the downstream effects of miscalibration and developing methods to correct it.

With the increasing adoption of vision-language models (VLMs) in critical decision-making systems such as healthcare or autonomous driving, the calibration of their uncertainty estimates becomes paramount. Yet, this dimension has been largely underexplored in the VLM test-time prompt-tuning (TPT) literature, which has predominantly focused on improving their discriminative performance. Recent state-of-the-art advocates for enforcing full orthogonality over pairs of text prompt embeddings to enhance separability, and therefore calibration. Nevertheless, as we theoretically show in this work, the inherent gradients from fully orthogonal constraints will strongly push semantically related classes away, ultimately making the model overconfident. Based on our findings, we propose Semantic Orthogonal Calibration (SoC), a Huber-based regularizer that enforces smooth prototype separation while preserving semantic proximity, thereby improving calibration compared to prior orthogonality-based approaches. Across a comprehensive empirical validation, we demonstrate that SoC consistently improves calibration performance, while also maintaining competitive discriminative capabilities.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Learned post-training quantization (PTQ) calibration fits quantizer parameters on a small calibration set, and for a text embedder the natural supervision is retrieval relevance. We ask two questions that are usually conflated: how far to calibrate, and whether to calibrate at all. Across three embedders (e5-base-v2, BGE-M3, EmbeddingGemma-300m) at 4-bit weight quantization, 161 calibration runs, the outcome of a fixed procedure ranges from a gain to catastrophic degradation, and the driver is the dose of the update, measured as the functional displacement D_func of the quantized model from its uncalibrated start. On EmbeddingGemma the same learning-rate grid gives +1.47 to -71.53 points of in-domain NDCG@10 change; a label-free cosine objective collapses at the same dose (-69.52 vs -71.63), so the collapse is a property of learnable calibration rather than of retrieval supervision. Objective sensitivity is heterogeneous: on e5, ranking calibration is substantially more robust than cosine at matched displacement (+14.16 +/- 4.34 pp, 95% t-CI [+3.37, +24.96], three paired slates), whereas on BGE-M3 the ordering is directionally opposite but unresolved ([-5.18, +2.38]). Dose is the main axis but not a sufficient statistic: equal D_func reached along different paths differs by up to 1.61 pp. We therefore treat calibration as an optional intervention. A pre-registered rule that accepts a checkpoint only when a per-query paired confidence interval on a 25% calibration-validation split clears the uncalibrated baseline was run on 6 independent slates and five arms. It never selected a checkpoint below its slate's baseline (0 harmful selections in 30 decisions), retained 8 of 11 beneficial updates, and paid a mean oracle regret of 1.52 pp with one abstention that forfeited 11.13 pp, a safety-opportunity trade-off, not a free improvement. We report what remains open, including label efficiency.

Parametric body models are central to many human-centric tasks, yet existing models often rely on costly 3D scans and learned shape spaces that are proprietary and demographically narrow. We introduce Anny, a simple, fully differentiable, and scan-free human body model grounded in anthropometric knowledge from the MakeHuman community. Anny defines a continuous, interpretable shape space, where phenotype parameters (e.g. gender, age, height, weight) control blendshapes spanning a wide range of human forms -- across ages (from infants to elders), body types, and proportions. Calibrated using WHO population statistics, it provides realistic and demographically grounded human shape variation within a single unified model. Thanks to its openness and semantic control, Anny serves as a versatile foundation for 3D human modeling -- supporting millimeter-accurate scan fitting, controlled synthetic data generation, and Human Mesh Recovery (HMR). We further introduce Anny-One, a collection of 800k photorealistic humans generated with Anny, showing that despite its simplicity, HMR models trained with Anny can match the performance of those trained with scan-based body models, while remaining interpretable and broadly representative. The Anny body model and its code are released under the Apache 2.0 license, making Anny an accessible foundation for human-centric 3D modeling.

Accurate camera motion estimation is essential for recovering global human motion in world coordinates from RGB video inputs. SLAM is widely used for estimating camera trajectory and point cloud, but monocular SLAM does so only up to an unknown scale factor. Previous works estimate the scale factor through optimization, but this is unreliable and time-consuming. This paper presents an optimization-free scale calibration framework, Human as Checkerboard (HAC). HAC innovatively leverages the human body predicted by human mesh recovery model as a calibration reference. Specifically, it uses the absolute depth of human-scene contact joints as references to calibrate the corresponding relative scene depth from SLAM. HAC benefits from geometric priors encoded in human mesh recovery models to estimate the SLAM scale and achieves precise global human motion estimation. Simple yet powerful, our method sets a new state-of-the-art performance for global human mesh estimation tasks, reducing motion errors by 50% over prior local-to-global methods while using 100times less inference time than optimization-based methods. Project page: https://martayang.github.io/HAC.

Gaze estimation has grown rapidly in accuracy in recent years. However, these models often fail to take advantage of different computer vision (CV) algorithms and techniques (such as small ResNet and Inception networks and ensemble models) that have been shown to improve results for other CV problems. Additionally, most current gaze estimation models require the use of either both eyes or an entire face, whereas real-world data may not always have both eyes in high resolution. Thus, we propose a gaze estimation model that implements the ResNet and Inception model architectures and makes predictions using only one eye image. Furthermore, we propose an ensemble calibration network that uses the predictions from several individual architectures for subject-specific predictions. With the use of lightweight architectures, we achieve high performance on the GazeCapture dataset with very low model parameter counts. When using two eyes as input, we achieve a prediction error of 1.591 cm on the test set without calibration and 1.439 cm with an ensemble calibration model. With just one eye as input, we still achieve an average prediction error of 2.312 cm on the test set without calibration and 1.951 cm with an ensemble calibration model. We also notice significantly lower errors on the right eye images in the test set, which could be important in the design of future gaze estimation-based tools.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

We introduce a novel method for low-rank personalization of a generic model for head avatar generation. Prior work proposes generic models that achieve high-quality face animation by leveraging large-scale datasets of multiple identities. However, such generic models usually fail to synthesize unique identity-specific details, since they learn a general domain prior. To adapt to specific subjects, we find that it is still challenging to capture high-frequency facial details via popular solutions like low-rank adaptation (LoRA). This motivates us to propose a specific architecture, a Register Module, that enhances the performance of LoRA, while requiring only a small number of parameters to adapt to an unseen identity. Our module is applied to intermediate features of a pre-trained model, storing and re-purposing information in a learnable 3D feature space. To demonstrate the efficacy of our personalization method, we collect a dataset of talking videos of individuals with distinctive facial details, such as wrinkles and tattoos. Our approach faithfully captures unseen faces, outperforming existing methods quantitatively and qualitatively. We will release the code, models, and dataset to the public.

Reliable confidence estimates are essential in semantic segmentation, especially in safety-critical settings where overconfident errors can mislead downstream decisions. Yet modern segmentation models often remain miscalibrated. Post-hoc calibration offers a practical way to correct confidence estimates without retraining the segmentation model, but its use in dense prediction raises structural issues that are often overlooked. We study two such issues. First, adding a constant to all logits leaves the softmax probabilities unchanged, but several standard calibrators can still depend on this arbitrary offset. As a result, two logit representations encoding the same predictive distribution may yield different calibrated probabilities. We define translation-invariant (TI) calibrators as those whose outputs are unchanged under such shifts, characterize which common calibrators satisfy this property, and construct TI counterparts of shift-sensitive calibrators to isolate the effect of removing representation dependence. Second, post-hoc calibration is typically fitted by minimizing a likelihood-based objective, whereas segmentation models are trained with task-specific metrics such as Dice. This mismatch can cause calibration to alter class orderings and degrade the deployed segmentation map. We study decision-preserving calibration under argmax- and order-preservation constraints. Since enforcing these constraints collapses affine softmax calibrators to temperature scaling, we introduce class-conditional affine calibrators that can be made argmax- or order-preserving while retaining greater expressivity, allowing us to quantify the calibration-segmentation trade-off induced by decision preservation. Across natural-image and medical segmentation benchmarks, and under corruption-based covariate shift, matched comparisons show that TI variants generally improve calibration metrics, while decision-preserving variants prevent segmentation degradation and retain strong calibration performance. These results provide practical design principles for well-defined post-hoc calibration pipelines in semantic segmentation.

Calibration is commonly evaluated by comparing model confidence with its empirical correctness, implicitly treating reliability as a function of the confidence score alone. However, this view can hide substantial structure: models may be systematically overconfident on some kinds of inputs and underconfident on others, causing global reliability diagnostics to obscure localised calibration failures. To address this, we formulate the problem of discovering hidden miscalibration regimes without assuming access to predefined data slices. We define the corresponding miscalibration field and propose a diagnostic framework for estimating it. Our approach learns a calibration-aware representation of the input space and estimates signed local miscalibration by kernel smoothing in the learned geometry. Across four real-world LLM benchmarks and twelve LLMs, we find that input-dependent calibration heterogeneity is prevalent. We further show that the discovered fields are actionable: they support local confidence correction and reduce calibration error in systematically miscalibrated regions where confidence-based methods such as isotonic regression and temperature scaling are less effective.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to structured clinical data, yet whether they can recognize the limits of their own knowledge on such tasks remains unexplored. We study this question through the lens of cross-model attribution divergence with the goal of reducing epistemic uncertainty for structured tasks, comparing Qwen 2.5 7B and XGBoost on a prediction task via attribution divergence analysis. We report four findings. First, LLM verbalized confidence is epistemically vacuous, it outputs a near-constant (0.856-0.937) regardless of whether accuracy is 49% or 75.3%, tracking prompt format rather than prediction quality. Second, the LLM exhibits an inverse difficulty effect: accuracy drops to 64.8% when XGBoost is 99% correct, but matches XGBoost (73.8% vs. 73.1%) when it is moderately uncertain. Third, few-shot examples and SHAP-derived feature evidence are orthogonal, super-additive interventions: they reduce the Attribution Disagreement Score (ADS) from 1.54 to 0.38 and improve accuracy from 49% to 75.3% without training. Fourth, a cross-model calibrator that determined LLM reliability using attribution divergence signals reduces expected calibration error from 0.254 to 0.080, replacing uninformative verbalized confidence with patient-specific reliability estimates, without accessing model internals or requiring repeated inference. We frame these findings as a cold start problem for LLMs on structured data and outline a path toward genuine epistemic self-awareness.

Autonomous agents based on large language models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving to handle multi-turn tasks, but ensuring their trustworthiness remains a critical challenge. A fundamental pillar of this trustworthiness is calibration, which refers to an agent's ability to express confidence that reliably reflects its actual performance. While calibration is well-established for static models, its dynamics in tool-integrated agentic workflows remain underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate verbalized calibration in tool-use agents, revealing a fundamental confidence dichotomy driven by tool type. Specifically, our pilot study identifies that evidence tools (e.g., web search) systematically induce severe overconfidence due to inherent noise in retrieved information, while verification tools (e.g., code interpreters) can ground reasoning through deterministic feedback and mitigate miscalibration. To robustly improve calibration across tool types, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning framework that jointly optimizes task accuracy and calibration, supported by a holistic benchmark of reward designs. We demonstrate that our trained agents not only achieve superior calibration but also exhibit robust generalization from local training environments to noisy web settings and to distinct domains such as mathematical reasoning. Our results highlight the necessity of domain-specific calibration strategies for tool-use agents. More broadly, this work establishes a foundation for building self-aware agents that can reliably communicate uncertainty in high-stakes, real-world deployments.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making contexts, but when they present answers without signaling low confidence, users may unknowingly act on erroneous outputs. Prior work shows that LLMs maintain internal uncertainty signals, yet their expressed confidence is often miscalibrated and poorly discriminates between correct and incorrect answers. We investigate whether supervised fine-tuning can improve models' ability to communicate uncertainty and whether such improvements generalize across tasks and domains. We fine-tune LLMs on datasets spanning general knowledge, mathematics, and open-ended trivia, and evaluate two metacognitive tasks: (1) single-question confidence estimation, where the model assigns a numeric certainty to its answer, and (2) pairwise confidence comparison, where the model selects which of two answers it is more likely to answer correctly. We assess generalization to unseen domains, including medical and legal reasoning. Results show that fine-tuning improves calibration (alignment between stated confidence and accuracy) and discrimination (higher confidence for correct vs. incorrect responses) within and across domains. However, gains are task-specific: training on single-question calibration does not transfer to pairwise comparison, and vice versa. Multitask fine-tuning yields broader gains, lowering calibration error and strengthening discrimination in out-of-domain evaluations. This suggests that uncertainty communication in LLMs is trainable but requires multitask training to generalize effectively.

Consider the problem of finding the best matching in a weighted graph where we only have access to predictions of the actual stochastic weights, based on an underlying context. If the predictor is the Bayes optimal one, then computing the best matching based on the predicted weights is optimal. However, in practice, this perfect information scenario is not realistic. Given an imperfect predictor, a suboptimal decision rule may compensate for the induced error and thus outperform the standard optimal rule. In this paper, we propose multicalibration as a way to address this problem. This fairness notion requires a predictor to be unbiased on each element of a family of protected sets of contexts. Given a class of matching algorithms mathcal C and any predictor γ of the edge-weights, we show how to construct a specific multicalibrated predictor hat γ, with the following property. Picking the best matching based on the output of hat γ is competitive with the best decision rule in mathcal C applied onto the original predictor γ. We complement this result by providing sample complexity bounds.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

Understanding the quality of a performance evaluation metric is crucial for ensuring that model outputs align with human preferences. However, it remains unclear how well each metric captures the diverse aspects of these preferences, as metrics often excel in one particular area but not across all dimensions. To address this, it is essential to systematically calibrate metrics to specific aspects of human preference, catering to the unique characteristics of each aspect. We introduce MetaMetrics, a calibrated meta-metric designed to evaluate generation tasks across different modalities in a supervised manner. MetaMetrics optimizes the combination of existing metrics to enhance their alignment with human preferences. Our metric demonstrates flexibility and effectiveness in both language and vision downstream tasks, showing significant benefits across various multilingual and multi-domain scenarios. MetaMetrics aligns closely with human preferences and is highly extendable and easily integrable into any application. This makes MetaMetrics a powerful tool for improving the evaluation of generation tasks, ensuring that metrics are more representative of human judgment across diverse contexts.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) hold considerable promise for applications in healthcare. However, their deployment in safety-critical settings is hindered by two key limitations: (i) sensitivity to prompt design, and (ii) a tendency to generate incorrect responses with high confidence. As clinicians may rely on a model's stated confidence to gauge the reliability of its predictions, it is especially important that when a model expresses high confidence, it is also highly accurate. We introduce Prompt4Trust, the first reinforcement learning (RL) framework for prompt augmentation targeting confidence calibration in MLLMs. A lightweight LLM is trained to produce context-aware auxiliary prompts that guide a downstream task MLLM to generate responses in which the expressed confidence more accurately reflects predictive accuracy. Unlike conventional calibration techniques, Prompt4Trust specifically prioritizes aspects of calibration most critical for safe and trustworthy clinical decision-making. Beyond improvements driven by this clinically motivated calibration objective, our proposed method also improves task accuracy, achieving state-of-the-art medical visual question answering (VQA) performance on the PMC-VQA benchmark, which is composed of multiple-choice questions spanning diverse medical imaging modalities. Moreover, our framework trained with a small downstream task MLLM showed promising zero-shot generalization to larger MLLMs in our experiments, suggesting the potential for scalable calibration without the associated computational costs. This work demonstrates the potential of automated yet human-aligned prompt engineering for improving the the trustworthiness of MLLMs in safety critical settings. Our codebase can be found at https://github.com/xingbpshen/prompt4trust.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) segmentation on contrast-enhanced CT is inherently ambiguous: inter-rater disagreement among experts reflects genuine uncertainty rather than annotation noise. Standard deep learning approaches assume a single ground truth, producing probabilistic outputs that can be poorly calibrated and difficult to interpret under such ambiguity. We present TwinTrack, a framework that addresses this gap through post-hoc calibration of ensemble segmentation probabilities to the empirical mean human response (MHR) -the fraction of expert annotators labeling a voxel as tumor. Calibrated probabilities are thus directly interpretable as the expected proportion of annotators assigning the tumor label, explicitly modeling inter-rater disagreement. The proposed post-hoc calibration procedure is simple and requires only a small multi-rater calibration set. It consistently improves calibration metrics over standard approaches when evaluated on the MICCAI 2025 CURVAS-PDACVI multi-rater benchmark.

AI agents are rapidly advancing from passive language models to autonomous systems executing complex, multi-step tasks. Yet their overconfidence in failure remains a fundamental barrier to deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing calibration methods, built for static single-turn outputs, cannot address the unique challenges of agentic systems, such as compounding errors along trajectories, uncertainty from external tools, and opaque failure modes. To address these challenges, we introduce, for the first time, the problem of Agentic Confidence Calibration and propose Holistic Trajectory Calibration (HTC), a novel diagnostic framework that extracts rich process-level features ranging from macro dynamics to micro stability across an agent's entire trajectory. Powered by a simple, interpretable model, HTC consistently surpasses strong baselines in both calibration and discrimination, across eight benchmarks, multiple LLMs, and diverse agent frameworks. Beyond performance, HTC delivers three essential advances: it provides interpretability by revealing the signals behind failure, enables transferability by applying across domains without retraining, and achieves generalization through a General Agent Calibrator (GAC) that achieves the best calibration (lowest ECE) on the out-of-domain GAIA benchmark. Together, these contributions establish a new process-centric paradigm for confidence calibration, providing a framework for diagnosing and enhancing the reliability of AI agents.

Although Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have markedly improved novel view synthesis, accurate uncertainty quantification in their image predictions remains an open problem. The prevailing methods for estimating uncertainty, including the state-of-the-art Density-aware NeRF Ensembles (DANE) [29], quantify uncertainty without calibration. This frequently leads to over- or under-confidence in image predictions, which can undermine their real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a method which, for the first time, achieves calibrated uncertainties for NeRFs. To accomplish this, we overcome a significant challenge in adapting existing calibration techniques to NeRFs: a need to hold out ground truth images from the target scene, reducing the number of images left to train the NeRF. This issue is particularly problematic in sparse-view settings, where we can operate with as few as three images. To address this, we introduce the concept of a meta-calibrator that performs uncertainty calibration for NeRFs with a single forward pass without the need for holding out any images from the target scene. Our meta-calibrator is a neural network that takes as input the NeRF images and uncalibrated uncertainty maps and outputs a scene-specific calibration curve that corrects the NeRF's uncalibrated uncertainties. We show that the meta-calibrator can generalize on unseen scenes and achieves well-calibrated and state-of-the-art uncertainty for NeRFs, significantly beating DANE and other approaches. This opens opportunities to improve applications that rely on accurate NeRF uncertainty estimates such as next-best view planning and potentially more trustworthy image reconstruction for medical diagnosis. The code is available at https://niki-amini-naieni.github.io/instantcalibration.github.io/.

We introduce a transfer learning framework for regression that leverages heterogeneous source domains to improve predictive performance in a data-scarce target domain. Our approach fits a conditional generative model to each source domain and calibrates a shared linear combination of the generated responses via conditional quantile matching at the observed target covariates. The calibration aligns the conditional response distributions while accommodating simultaneous shifts in both the covariate and conditional response distributions. The calibrated responses then serve as pseudo-labels to augment the target data for a broad class of downstream learning tasks. Theoretically, we derive an excess risk bound for an empirical risk minimizer (ERM) trained on the augmented data, separating the benefit of an enlarged training sample from errors due to density ratio estimation, source generator estimation, conditional calibration, and irreducible transfer bias. Empirically, simulations and real-data applications show that the proposed method can improve target-domain prediction when the transfer bias is small.

NeRFs have enabled highly realistic synthesis of human faces including complex appearance and reflectance effects of hair and skin. These methods typically require a large number of multi-view input images, making the process hardware intensive and cumbersome, limiting applicability to unconstrained settings. We propose a novel volumetric human face prior that enables the synthesis of ultra high-resolution novel views of subjects that are not part of the prior's training distribution. This prior model consists of an identity-conditioned NeRF, trained on a dataset of low-resolution multi-view images of diverse humans with known camera calibration. A simple sparse landmark-based 3D alignment of the training dataset allows our model to learn a smooth latent space of geometry and appearance despite a limited number of training identities. A high-quality volumetric representation of a novel subject can be obtained by model fitting to 2 or 3 camera views of arbitrary resolution. Importantly, our method requires as few as two views of casually captured images as input at inference time.

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes error, and epistemic uncertainty via the size of the set. In this paper, we extend the notion of calibration, which is commonly used to evaluate the validity of the aleatoric uncertainty representation of a single probabilistic classifier, to assess the validity of an epistemic uncertainty representation obtained by sets of probabilistic classifiers. Broadly speaking, we call a set of probabilistic classifiers calibrated if one can find a calibrated convex combination of these classifiers. To evaluate this notion of calibration, we propose a novel nonparametric calibration test that generalizes an existing test for single probabilistic classifiers to the case of sets of probabilistic classifiers. Making use of this test, we empirically show that ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.

Ensuring reliable confidence scores from deep neural networks is of paramount significance in critical decision-making systems, particularly in real-world domains such as healthcare. Recent literature on calibrating deep segmentation networks has resulted in substantial progress. Nevertheless, these approaches are strongly inspired by the advancements in classification tasks, and thus their uncertainty is usually modeled by leveraging the information of individual pixels, disregarding the local structure of the object of interest. Indeed, only the recent Spatially Varying Label Smoothing (SVLS) approach considers pixel spatial relationships across classes, by softening the pixel label assignments with a discrete spatial Gaussian kernel. In this work, we first present a constrained optimization perspective of SVLS and demonstrate that it enforces an implicit constraint on soft class proportions of surrounding pixels. Furthermore, our analysis shows that SVLS lacks a mechanism to balance the contribution of the constraint with the primary objective, potentially hindering the optimization process. Based on these observations, we propose NACL (Neighbor Aware CaLibration), a principled and simple solution based on equality constraints on the logit values, which enables to control explicitly both the enforced constraint and the weight of the penalty, offering more flexibility. Comprehensive experiments on a wide variety of well-known segmentation benchmarks demonstrate the superior calibration performance of the proposed approach, without affecting its discriminative power. Furthermore, ablation studies empirically show the model agnostic nature of our approach, which can be used to train a wide span of deep segmentation networks.

We present any4, a learned 4-bit weight quantization solution for large language models (LLMs) providing arbitrary numeric representations without requiring pre-processing of weights or activations. any4 yields higher accuracy compared to other related 4-bit numeric representation types: int4, fp4 and nf4, as evaluated on a range of model sizes, generations and families (Llama 2, Llama 3, Mistral and Mixtral). While any4 does not require preprocessing of weights or activations, it is also competitive with orthogonal techniques that require such preprocessing (e.g., AWQ and GPTQ). We also experiment with any3 and any2 and show competitiveness at lower bits. Additionally, we show that we can calibrate using a single curated diverse sample rather than hundreds of samples from a dataset as done in most quantization approaches. We also open source tinygemm, a latency optimized GPU matrix multiplication library for LLMs, that implements any4 using a GPU-efficient lookup table strategy along with other common quantization methods. We open source our code at https://github.com/facebookresearch/any4 .

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have been recent attempts to calibrate DNNs, most of these efforts have primarily been focused on classification tasks, thus neglecting DNN-based object detectors. Although several recent works addressed calibration for object detection and proposed differentiable penalties, none of them are consistent estimators of established concepts in calibration. In this work, we tackle the challenge of defining and estimating calibration error specifically for this task. In particular, we adapt the definition of classification calibration error to handle the nuances associated with object detection, and predictions in structured output spaces more generally. Furthermore, we propose a consistent and differentiable estimator of the detection calibration error, utilizing kernel density estimation. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator against competing train-time and post-hoc calibration methods, while maintaining similar detection performance.

Designing robust activity detectors for fixed camera surveillance video requires knowledge of the 3-D scene. This paper presents an automatic camera calibration process that provides a mechanism to reason about the spatial proximity between objects at different times. It combines a CNN-based camera pose estimator with a vertical scale provided by pedestrian observations to establish the 4-D scene geometry. Unlike some previous methods, the people do not need to be tracked nor do the head and feet need to be explicitly detected. It is robust to individual height variations and camera parameter estimation errors.

As it is hard to calibrate single-view RGB images in the wild, existing 3D human mesh reconstruction (3DHMR) methods either use a constant large focal length or estimate one based on the background environment context, which can not tackle the problem of the torso, limb, hand or face distortion caused by perspective camera projection when the camera is close to the human body. The naive focal length assumptions can harm this task with the incorrectly formulated projection matrices. To solve this, we propose Zolly, the first 3DHMR method focusing on perspective-distorted images. Our approach begins with analysing the reason for perspective distortion, which we find is mainly caused by the relative location of the human body to the camera center. We propose a new camera model and a novel 2D representation, termed distortion image, which describes the 2D dense distortion scale of the human body. We then estimate the distance from distortion scale features rather than environment context features. Afterwards, we integrate the distortion feature with image features to reconstruct the body mesh. To formulate the correct projection matrix and locate the human body position, we simultaneously use perspective and weak-perspective projection loss. Since existing datasets could not handle this task, we propose the first synthetic dataset PDHuman and extend two real-world datasets tailored for this task, all containing perspective-distorted human images. Extensive experiments show that Zolly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods on both perspective-distorted datasets and the standard benchmark (3DPW).

Central to human-aligned AI is understanding the benefits of human-elicited labels over synthetic alternatives. While human soft-labels improve calibration by capturing uncertainty, prior studies conflate these benefits with the implicit correction of mislabeled data (mode shifts), obscuring true effects of soft-labels. We present a controlled audit of soft-label learning across MNIST and a synthetic variant, re-annotating subsets to extract human uncertainty. By decoupling soft-label supervision from underlying label mode shifts, we show that while human soft-labels do provide accuracy gains, their larger value lies in acting as a regularizer that improves model calibration on difficult samples and promotes stable convergence across training runs. Dataset cartography reveals models trained on human soft-labels mirror human uncertainty, whereas those trained on synthetic labels fail to align with humans. Broadly, this work provides a diagnostic testbed for human-AI uncertainty alignment.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities out of box for a wide range of applications, yet accuracy still remains a major growth area, especially in mission-critical domains such as biomedicine. An effective method to calibrate the confidence level on LLM responses is essential to automatically detect errors and facilitate human-in-the-loop verification. An important source of calibration signals stems from expert-stipulated programmatic supervision, which is often available at low cost but has its own limitations such as noise and coverage. In this paper, we introduce a Pareto optimal self-supervision framework that can leverage available programmatic supervision to systematically calibrate LLM responses by producing a risk score for every response, without any additional manual efforts. This is accomplished by learning a harmonizer model to align LLM output with other available supervision sources, which would assign higher risk scores to more uncertain LLM responses and facilitate error correction. Experiments on standard relation extraction tasks in biomedical and general domains demonstrate the promise of this approach, with our proposed risk scores highly correlated with the real error rate of LLMs. For the most uncertain test instances, dynamic prompting based on our proposed risk scores results in significant accuracy improvement for off-the-shelf LLMs, boosting GPT-3 results past state-of-the-art (SOTA) weak supervision and GPT-4 results past SOTA supervised results on challenging evaluation datasets.

Generating accurate and calibrated confidence estimates is critical for deploying LLMs in high-stakes or user-facing applications, and remains an open challenge. Prior research has often framed confidence as a problem of eliciting a model's "self-knowledge", i.e., the ability of an LLM to judge whether its own answers are correct; this approach implicitly assumes that there is some privileged information about the answer's correctness that is accessible to the model itself. However, our experiments reveal that an LLM attempting to predict the correctness of its own outputs generally performs no better than an unrelated LLM. Moreover, we hypothesize that a key factor in building a "Correctness Model" (CM) is exposure to a target model's historical predictions. We propose multiple methods to inject this historical correctness information, creating a Generalized Correctness Model (GCM). We first show that GCMs can be trained on the correctness data from many LLMs and learn patterns for correctness prediction applicable across datasets and models. We then use CMs as a lens for studying the source of correctness prediction ability and its generalization, systematically controlling their training data and finding that answer phrasing is a strong predictor for correctness. We further explore alternative methods of injecting history without training an LLM, finding that including history as in-context examples can help improve correctness prediction, and post-hoc calibration can provide complementary reductions in calibration error. We evaluate GCMs based on Qwen3-8B across 5 model families and the MMLU and TriviaQA datasets, as well as on a downstream selective prediction task, finding that reliable LLM confidence estimation is a generalizable and model-agnostic skill learned by systematically encoding correctness history rather than a model-specific skill reliant on self-introspection.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Generative diffusion models can serve as a prior which ensures that solutions of image restoration systems adhere to the manifold of natural images. However, for restoring facial images, a personalized prior is necessary to accurately represent and reconstruct unique facial features of a given individual. In this paper, we propose a simple, yet effective, method for personalized restoration, called Dual-Pivot Tuning - a two-stage approach that personalize a blind restoration system while maintaining the integrity of the general prior and the distinct role of each component. Our key observation is that for optimal personalization, the generative model should be tuned around a fixed text pivot, while the guiding network should be tuned in a generic (non-personalized) manner, using the personalized generative model as a fixed ``pivot". This approach ensures that personalization does not interfere with the restoration process, resulting in a natural appearance with high fidelity to the person's identity and the attributes of the degraded image. We evaluated our approach both qualitatively and quantitatively through extensive experiments with images of widely recognized individuals, comparing it against relevant baselines. Surprisingly, we found that our personalized prior not only achieves higher fidelity to identity with respect to the person's identity, but also outperforms state-of-the-art generic priors in terms of general image quality. Project webpage: https://personalized-restoration.github.io

Volumetry is one of the principal downstream applications of 3D medical image segmentation, for example, to detect abnormal tissue growth or for surgery planning. Conformal Prediction is a promising framework for uncertainty quantification, providing calibrated predictive intervals associated with automatic volume measurements. However, this methodology is based on the hypothesis that calibration and test samples are exchangeable, an assumption that is in practice often violated in medical image applications. A weighted formulation of Conformal Prediction can be framed to mitigate this issue, but its empirical investigation in the medical domain is still lacking. A potential reason is that it relies on the estimation of the density ratio between the calibration and test distributions, which is likely to be intractable in scenarios involving high-dimensional data. To circumvent this, we propose an efficient approach for density ratio estimation relying on the compressed latent representations generated by the segmentation model. Our experiments demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to reduce the coverage error in the presence of covariate shifts, in both synthetic and real-world settings. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/benolmbrt/wcp_miccai

Camera calibration involves estimating camera parameters to infer geometric features from captured sequences, which is crucial for computer vision and robotics. However, conventional calibration is laborious and requires dedicated collection. Recent efforts show that learning-based solutions have the potential to be used in place of the repeatability works of manual calibrations. Among these solutions, various learning strategies, networks, geometric priors, and datasets have been investigated. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of learning-based camera calibration techniques, by analyzing their strengths and limitations. Our main calibration categories include the standard pinhole camera model, distortion camera model, cross-view model, and cross-sensor model, following the research trend and extended applications. As there is no unified benchmark in this community, we collect a holistic calibration dataset that can serve as a public platform to evaluate the generalization of existing methods. It comprises both synthetic and real-world data, with images and videos captured by different cameras in diverse scenes. Toward the end of this paper, we discuss the challenges and provide further research directions. To our knowledge, this is the first survey for the learning-based camera calibration (spanned 10 years). The summarized methods, datasets, and benchmarks are available and will be regularly updated at https://github.com/KangLiao929/Awesome-Deep-Camera-Calibration.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Human motion forecasters are increasingly accurate and fast, but reliable deployment requires uncertainty estimates that are structured, calibrated, and efficient. Bayesian and ensemble-based uncertainty estimates often require repeated stochastic inference [15, 26], while conformal calibration alone does not provide an epistemic signal or preserve trajectory covariance structure [14, 50]. We introduce SPARC (Single-Pass Adaptive Risk Calibration), a Bayesian-conformal uncertainty layer for motion forecasting. A deterministic MLP backbone predicts the future mean, and a conjugate Bayesian last layer converts time-domain feature leverage into an analytic horizon-wise epistemic scale κ_t(x). This scale inflates a graph-temporal Gaussian covariance without changing its correlation structure, and split conformal calibration produces 95% marginal prediction tubes with finite-sample validity under exchangeability. The key interface is the structured factorization κ_t(x)Σ_{str,t}(x), which injects feature-space epistemic uncertainty into trajectory densities without Monte Carlo sampling. Across nine dataset-protocol blocks and deterministic, multimodal, and calibration baselines, SPARC ranks first on NLL and on the combined MPJPE+NLL criterion while retaining competitive point accuracy and efficient calibrated tubes. Ranking windows by κ separates high-error cases, making the scale usable as a lightweight risk monitor.

Single-image human reconstruction is vital for digital human modeling applications but remains an extremely challenging task. Current approaches rely on generative models to synthesize multi-view images for subsequent 3D reconstruction and animation. However, directly generating multiple views from a single human image suffers from geometric inconsistencies, resulting in issues like fragmented or blurred limbs in the reconstructed models. To tackle these limitations, we introduce HumanDreamer-X, a novel framework that integrates multi-view human generation and reconstruction into a unified pipeline, which significantly enhances the geometric consistency and visual fidelity of the reconstructed 3D models. In this framework, 3D Gaussian Splatting serves as an explicit 3D representation to provide initial geometry and appearance priority. Building upon this foundation, HumanFixer is trained to restore 3DGS renderings, which guarantee photorealistic results. Furthermore, we delve into the inherent challenges associated with attention mechanisms in multi-view human generation, and propose an attention modulation strategy that effectively enhances geometric details identity consistency across multi-view. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach markedly improves generation and reconstruction PSNR quality metrics by 16.45% and 12.65%, respectively, achieving a PSNR of up to 25.62 dB, while also showing generalization capabilities on in-the-wild data and applicability to various human reconstruction backbone models.

Accurate LiDAR-camera calibration is crucial for multi-sensor systems. However, traditional methods often rely on physical targets, which are impractical for real-world deployment. Moreover, even carefully calibrated extrinsics can degrade over time due to sensor drift or external disturbances, necessitating periodic recalibration. To address these challenges, we present a Targetless LiDAR-Camera Calibration (TLC-Calib) that jointly optimizes sensor poses with a neural Gaussian-based scene representation. Reliable LiDAR points are frozen as anchor Gaussians to preserve global structure, while auxiliary Gaussians prevent local overfitting under noisy initialization. Our fully differentiable pipeline with photometric and geometric regularization achieves robust and generalizable calibration, consistently outperforming existing targetless methods on the KITTI-360, Waymo, and Fast-LIVO2 datasets. In addition, it yields more consistent Novel View Synthesis results, reflecting improved extrinsic alignment. The project page is available at: https://www.haebeom.com/tlc-calib-site/.

Complete orthogonal predictive coordinates do not by themselves bind a latent direction to a named intervention. We present a mathematical and synthetic audit motivated by vascular device-vessel suitcordance. Capacity-matched least-squares predictors were exactly equivalent under complete fixed output transforms, whereas an anchor-only observer recovered interpretations only within the span of known perturbation signatures. Six three-dimensional configurations across 64 seeds gave a maximum paired prediction discrepancy of 6.7e-15 but a median untransported edit error of 1.513. Coordinate transport removed that error. Noisy and weak anchors constrained calibration stability, and changing the representation basis required recalibration or verified transport. Across 256 additional fits in dimensions 3-24, prediction equivalence persisted within 4.0e-15. We then evaluated nine deliberate runnable fault classes across 64 seeds. All 576 faulty executions completed, but each violated at least one reconstruction, prediction, delivered-edit or scope contract; all 320 valid control records passed. Repeating a faulty implementation gave exact self-agreement despite error against the separately computed simulator expectation. For one omitted-direction defect, probe coverage followed its analytic law, and rank-aware abstention protected unsupported interpretations. Scalar-noise experiments exposed both missed weak faults and excessive rejection under narrow relative tolerances. These controls provide an executable separation of prediction, semantic support and scientific acceptance. They are synthetic numerical audits, not clinical validation, neural JEPA-Anything replication, agent learning or patient treatment-effect estimation.

We address the problem of uncertainty calibration and introduce a novel calibration method, Parametrized Temperature Scaling (PTS). Standard deep neural networks typically yield uncalibrated predictions, which can be transformed into calibrated confidence scores using post-hoc calibration methods. In this contribution, we demonstrate that the performance of accuracy-preserving state-of-the-art post-hoc calibrators is limited by their intrinsic expressive power. We generalize temperature scaling by computing prediction-specific temperatures, parameterized by a neural network. We show with extensive experiments that our novel accuracy-preserving approach consistently outperforms existing algorithms across a large number of model architectures, datasets and metrics.

A well-calibrated model should express confidence that matches its actual accuracy -- when it claims 80\% confidence, it should be correct 80\% of the time. While large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance across diverse tasks, their epistemic calibration remains poorly understood. We introduce KalshiBench, a benchmark of 300 prediction market questions from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, with verifiable real-world outcomes occurring after model training cutoffs. Unlike traditional benchmarks measuring accuracy on static knowledge, KalshiBench evaluates whether models can appropriately quantify uncertainty about genuinely unknown future events. We evaluate five frontier models -- Claude Opus 4.5, GPT-5.2, DeepSeek-V3.2, Qwen3-235B, and Kimi-K2 -- and find systematic overconfidence across all models. Even the best-calibrated model (Claude Opus 4.5, ECE=0.120) shows substantial calibration errors, while reasoning-enhanced models like GPT-5.2-XHigh exhibit worse calibration (ECE=0.395) despite comparable accuracy. Critically, only one model achieves a positive Brier Skill Score, indicating most models perform worse than simply predicting base rates. Our findings suggest that scaling and enhanced reasoning do not automatically confer calibration benefits, highlighting epistemic calibration as a distinct capability requiring targeted development.

Due to depth ambiguities and occlusions, lifting 2D poses to 3D is a highly ill-posed problem. Well-calibrated distributions of possible poses can make these ambiguities explicit and preserve the resulting uncertainty for downstream tasks. This study shows that previous attempts, which account for these ambiguities via multiple hypotheses generation, produce miscalibrated distributions. We identify that miscalibration can be attributed to the use of sample-based metrics such as minMPJPE. In a series of simulations, we show that minimizing minMPJPE, as commonly done, should converge to the correct mean prediction. However, it fails to correctly capture the uncertainty, thus resulting in a miscalibrated distribution. To mitigate this problem, we propose an accurate and well-calibrated model called Conditional Graph Normalizing Flow (cGNFs). Our model is structured such that a single cGNF can estimate both conditional and marginal densities within the same model - effectively solving a zero-shot density estimation problem. We evaluate cGNF on the Human~3.6M dataset and show that cGNF provides a well-calibrated distribution estimate while being close to state-of-the-art in terms of overall minMPJPE. Furthermore, cGNF outperforms previous methods on occluded joints while it remains well-calibrated.

Ensuring that large language models (LLMs) reflect diverse user values and preferences is crucial as their user bases expand globally. It is therefore encouraging to see the growing interest in LLM personalization within the research community. However, current works often rely on the LLM-as-a-Judge approach for evaluation without thoroughly examining its validity. In this paper, we investigate the reliability of LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge, asking LLMs to judge user preferences based on personas. Our findings suggest that directly applying LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge is less reliable than previously assumed, showing low and inconsistent agreement with human ground truth. The personas typically used are often overly simplistic, resulting in low predictive power. To address these issues, we introduce verbal uncertainty estimation into the LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge pipeline, allowing the model to express low confidence on uncertain judgments. This adjustment leads to much higher agreement (above 80%) on high-certainty samples for binary tasks. Through human evaluation, we find that the LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge achieves comparable performance to third-party humans evaluation and even surpasses human performance on high-certainty samples. Our work indicates that certainty-enhanced LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge offers a promising direction for developing more reliable and scalable methods for evaluating LLM personalization.

This paper focuses on the regression of multiple 3D people from a single RGB image. Existing approaches predominantly follow a multi-stage pipeline that first detects people in bounding boxes and then independently regresses their 3D body meshes. In contrast, we propose to Regress all meshes in a One-stage fashion for Multiple 3D People (termed ROMP). The approach is conceptually simple, bounding box-free, and able to learn a per-pixel representation in an end-to-end manner. Our method simultaneously predicts a Body Center heatmap and a Mesh Parameter map, which can jointly describe the 3D body mesh on the pixel level. Through a body-center-guided sampling process, the body mesh parameters of all people in the image are easily extracted from the Mesh Parameter map. Equipped with such a fine-grained representation, our one-stage framework is free of the complex multi-stage process and more robust to occlusion. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, ROMP achieves superior performance on the challenging multi-person benchmarks, including 3DPW and CMU Panoptic. Experiments on crowded/occluded datasets demonstrate the robustness under various types of occlusion. The released code is the first real-time implementation of monocular multi-person 3D mesh regression.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions made by large language models (LLMs) in binary text classification tasks remains a challenge. Calibration, in the context of LLMs, refers to the alignment between the model's predicted probabilities and the actual correctness of its predictions. A well-calibrated model should produce probabilities that accurately reflect the likelihood of its predictions being correct. We propose a novel approach that utilizes the inductive Venn--Abers predictor (IVAP) to calibrate the probabilities associated with the output tokens corresponding to the binary labels. Our experiments on the BoolQ dataset using the Llama 2 model demonstrate that IVAP consistently outperforms the commonly used temperature scaling method for various label token choices, achieving well-calibrated probabilities while maintaining high predictive quality. Our findings contribute to the understanding of calibration techniques for LLMs and provide a practical solution for obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates in binary question answering tasks, enhancing the interpretability and trustworthiness of LLM predictions.

Recommendation fairness has attracted great attention recently. In real-world systems, users usually have multiple sensitive attributes (e.g. age, gender, and occupation), and users may not want their recommendation results influenced by those attributes. Moreover, which of and when these user attributes should be considered in fairness-aware modeling should depend on users' specific demands. In this work, we define the selective fairness task, where users can flexibly choose which sensitive attributes should the recommendation model be bias-free. We propose a novel parameter-efficient prompt-based fairness-aware recommendation (PFRec) framework, which relies on attribute-specific prompt-based bias eliminators with adversarial training, enabling selective fairness with different attribute combinations on sequential recommendation. Both task-specific and user-specific prompts are considered. We conduct extensive evaluations to verify PFRec's superiority in selective fairness. The source codes are released in https://github.com/wyqing20/PFRec.

Existing approaches to infer user traits and generate responses consistent with a persona rely on static prompting. They lack calibrated uncertainty, ignore sequential evidence, and drift during long interactions. We present AI YOU, a framework that continually updates a personality profile with 22 dimensions from conversation and embodies it in a personal digital twin. Practically, the system combines prompting, Bayesian updating, and conformal prediction for persona inference. A periodically refreshed memory anchor and cognitive memory with three layers preserve persona consistency over long interactions. Across the main results, AI YOU (i) achieves conformal coverage ranging from 0.921 to 0.976, (ii) improves uncertainty calibration and reasoning grounded in memory, and (iii) enhances persona fidelity over static prompting in role playing over 100 turns while reducing trait drift, for most evaluated backbones under adversarial settings with multiple agents. The prototype AI YOU Town initializes an imaginative twin world for future interaction. The online demo is available at https://huggingface.co/proxy/quinnnnnne-ai-you.hf.space/{\texttt{quinnnnnne-ai-you.hf.space}}.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

Human-centric perceptions (e.g., pose estimation, human parsing, pedestrian detection, person re-identification, etc.) play a key role in industrial applications of visual models. While specific human-centric tasks have their own relevant semantic aspect to focus on, they also share the same underlying semantic structure of the human body. However, few works have attempted to exploit such homogeneity and design a general-propose model for human-centric tasks. In this work, we revisit a broad range of human-centric tasks and unify them in a minimalist manner. We propose UniHCP, a Unified Model for Human-Centric Perceptions, which unifies a wide range of human-centric tasks in a simplified end-to-end manner with the plain vision transformer architecture. With large-scale joint training on 33 human-centric datasets, UniHCP can outperform strong baselines on several in-domain and downstream tasks by direct evaluation. When adapted to a specific task, UniHCP achieves new SOTAs on a wide range of human-centric tasks, e.g., 69.8 mIoU on CIHP for human parsing, 86.18 mA on PA-100K for attribute prediction, 90.3 mAP on Market1501 for ReID, and 85.8 JI on CrowdHuman for pedestrian detection, performing better than specialized models tailored for each task.

Crash datasets that carry an investigator narrative hold information the coded fields omit. Coding those narratives at scale has been blocked by three obstacles. Frontier large language models are costly at that scale, their generated text cannot be verified, and no rule says how much output a human must check. This paper formulates narrative coding as gated, typed decisions answered by Jev, a System One model that returns probabilities over analyst-defined options and generates no text. A screen covered 499,500 Texas narratives and 195,857 were coded with a 27-question schema. Cost is governed by schema size rather than narrative length. The probabilities are audited against coded fields and against 2,416 blinded human judgments drawn under a stated sampling design. Two frontier large language models are benchmarked on the same records. Against human labels the typed model attains an F1 of 0.908. One frontier model gains 0.059 and the other is indistinguishable from it. Calibration varies by model rather than by paradigm, so each model must be audited. Recalibration on the same labels reduces calibration error by a factor of 3.3. Agreement with coded fields understates fidelity to the narrative by a median of 0.26 in kappa. A resolution-floor bound covers any model that reports probabilities on a discrete grid. A review budget over flagged records gives the records a human must read per variable and per year. Adding the calibrated variables to the coded fields raises the injury and fatal crashes attributed to nine factors by 10,747 per year.

As AI-based code generation becomes widespread, researchers are investigating the calibration of code LLMs - ensuring their confidence scores faithfully represent the true likelihood of code correctness. To do so, we investigate multicalibration, which can capture additional factors about a coding problem, such as complexity, code length, or programming language used. We study four multicalibration approaches on three function synthesis benchmarks, using latest-generation code LLMs (Qwen3 Coder, GPT-OSS, DeepSeek-R1-Distill). Our results demonstrate that multicalibration can yield distinct improvements over both uncalibrated token likelihoods (+1.03 in skill score) and baseline calibrations (+0.37 in skill score). We study the influence of the aforementioned factors in ablations, and make our dataset (consisting of code generations, likelihoods, and correctness labels) available for future research on code LLM calibration.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS. The project page can be found at https://www.taolinwei.com/calibration-study

Whole-body biometric recognition is a challenging multimodal task that integrates various biometric modalities, including face, gait, and body. This integration is essential for overcoming the limitations of unimodal systems. Traditionally, whole-body recognition involves deploying different models to process multiple modalities, achieving the final outcome by score-fusion (e.g., weighted averaging of similarity matrices from each model). However, these conventional methods may overlook the variations in score distributions of individual modalities, making it challenging to improve final performance. In this work, we present Quality-guided Mixture of score-fusion Experts (QME), a novel framework designed for improving whole-body biometric recognition performance through a learnable score-fusion strategy using a Mixture of Experts (MoE). We introduce a novel pseudo-quality loss for quality estimation with a modality-specific Quality Estimator (QE), and a score triplet loss to improve the metric performance. Extensive experiments on multiple whole-body biometric datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach, achieving state-of-the-art results across various metrics compared to baseline methods. Our method is effective for multimodal and multi-model, addressing key challenges such as model misalignment in the similarity score domain and variability in data quality.

In recent years, multiple notions of algorithmic fairness have arisen. One such notion is individual fairness (IF), which requires that individuals who are similar receive similar treatment. In parallel, matrix estimation (ME) has emerged as a natural paradigm for handling noisy data with missing values. In this work, we connect the two concepts. We show that pre-processing data using ME can improve an algorithm's IF without sacrificing performance. Specifically, we show that using a popular ME method known as singular value thresholding (SVT) to pre-process the data provides a strong IF guarantee under appropriate conditions. We then show that, under analogous conditions, SVT pre-processing also yields estimates that are consistent and approximately minimax optimal. As such, the ME pre-processing step does not, under the stated conditions, increase the prediction error of the base algorithm, i.e., does not impose a fairness-performance trade-off. We verify these results on synthetic and real data.

As language models improve and become increasingly deployed to solve a variety of tasks, trustworthiness becomes essential. Calibration is a good proxy for trust: well-calibrated confidence estimates help inform the risk versus reward tradeoff when trusting a specific model output. Unfortunately, even as models improve, they remain poorly calibrated, often biasing towards overconfidence. Additionally, calibration can be gamed: a policy that always predicts the base rate is perfectly calibrated, but completely uninformative. To resolve this, we develop a new metric, expected utility renormalized by the oracle (EURO), that balances calibration and informativeness. We also propose a general-purpose activation-based confidence, utility, and trust estimation protocol (ACUTE) to appropriately adjudicate uncertainty. The ACUTE protocol provides flexible, sample-efficient, and compute-efficient confidence estimators for 3 tasks including multiple choice question answering, tool-calling, and scientific document summarization across 6 models from 4 model families. ACUTE outperforms strong baselines on EURO, while maintaining low calibration error. Taken together, our work shows that equipping LLMs with the ACUTE protocol can improve calibration, utility, and trustworthiness in numerous settings.

Dexterous teleoperation requires reliable human-hand state estimations. However, common low-cost motion-capture gloves and markerless trackers often exhibit biases that vary across users, glove fit, and recording sessions, degrading retargeting and demonstration quality. We present YOCO, a fast few-shot, fine-tuning-free calibration framework that corrects biased hand-pose streams from a small set of paired raw and target poses. Instead of optimizing a separate model for every operator or session, YOCO conditions a calibration HyperNet on the paired examples and predicts LoRA-style updates for a frozen MANO hand-estimation module, turning per-user calibration into a lightweight feed-forward adaptation step while preserving the geometric prior of MANO and the efficiency of a compact estimator. We train YOCO with synthetic drift augmentations on InterHand2.6M and evaluate on augmented InterHand sequences, offline real glove data, and dexterous teleoperation tasks. Across these settings, YOCO improves calibration efficiency, hand-state estimation quality and teleoperation performance compared with uncalibrated input and standard calibration baselines.

Creating a photorealistic scene and human reconstruction from a single monocular in-the-wild video figures prominently in the perception of a human-centric 3D world. Recent neural rendering advances have enabled holistic human-scene reconstruction but require pre-calibrated camera and human poses, and days of training time. In this work, we introduce a novel unified framework that simultaneously performs camera tracking, human pose estimation and human-scene reconstruction in an online fashion. 3D Gaussian Splatting is utilized to learn Gaussian primitives for humans and scenes efficiently, and reconstruction-based camera tracking and human pose estimation modules are designed to enable holistic understanding and effective disentanglement of pose and appearance. Specifically, we design a human deformation module to reconstruct the details and enhance generalizability to out-of-distribution poses faithfully. Aiming to learn the spatial correlation between human and scene accurately, we introduce occlusion-aware human silhouette rendering and monocular geometric priors, which further improve reconstruction quality. Experiments on the EMDB and NeuMan datasets demonstrate superior or on-par performance with existing methods in camera tracking, human pose estimation, novel view synthesis and runtime. Our project page is at https://eth-ait.github.io/ODHSR.

Obtaining high-quality labels is costly, whereas unlabeled covariates are often abundant, motivating semi-supervised inference methods with reliable uncertainty quantification. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages a machine-learning predictor trained on a small labeled sample to improve efficiency, but it can lose efficiency under model misspecification and suffer from coverage distortions due to label reuse. We introduce Machine-Learning-Assisted Generalized Entropy Calibration (MEC), a cross-fitted, calibration-weighted variant of PPI. MEC improves efficiency by reweighting labeled samples to better align with the target population, using a principled calibration framework based on Bregman projections. This yields robustness to affine transformations of the predictor and relaxes requirements for validity by replacing conditions on raw prediction error with weaker projection-error conditions. As a result, MEC attains the semiparametric efficiency bound under weaker assumptions than existing PPI variants. Across simulations and a real-data application, MEC achieves near-nominal coverage and tighter confidence intervals than CF-PPI and vanilla PPI.

Preference alignment has become a standard pipeline in finetuning models to follow generic human preferences. Majority of work seeks to optimize model to produce responses that would be preferable on average, simplifying the diverse and often contradicting space of human preferences. While research has increasingly focused on personalized alignment: adapting models to individual user preferences, there is a lack of personalized preference dataset which focus on nuanced individual-level preferences. To address this, we introduce WikiPersona: the first fine-grained personalization using well-documented, famous individuals. Our dataset challenges models to align with these personas through an interpretable process: generating verifiable textual descriptions of a persona's background and preferences in addition to alignment. We systematically evaluate different personalization approaches and find that as few-shot prompting with preferences and fine-tuning fail to simultaneously ensure effectiveness and efficiency, using inferred personal preferences as prefixes enables effective personalization, especially in topics where preferences clash while leading to more equitable generalization across unseen personas.

Ensuring equitable treatment (fairness) across protected attributes (such as gender or ethnicity) is a critical issue in machine learning. Most existing literature focuses on binary classification, but achieving fairness in regression tasks-such as insurance pricing or hiring score assessments-is equally important. Moreover, anti-discrimination laws also apply to continuous attributes, such as age, for which many existing methods are not applicable. In practice, multiple protected attributes can exist simultaneously; however, methods targeting fairness across several attributes often overlook so-called "fairness gerrymandering", thereby ignoring disparities among intersectional subgroups (e.g., African-American women or Hispanic men). In this paper, we propose a distance covariance regularisation framework that mitigates the association between model predictions and protected attributes, in line with the fairness definition of demographic parity, and that captures both linear and nonlinear dependencies. To enhance applicability in the presence of multiple protected attributes, we extend our framework by incorporating two multivariate dependence measures based on distance covariance: the previously proposed joint distance covariance (JdCov) and our novel concatenated distance covariance (CCdCov), which effectively address fairness gerrymandering in both regression and classification tasks involving protected attributes of various types. We discuss and illustrate how to calibrate regularisation strength, including a method based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, which quantifies dissimilarities in prediction distributions across groups. We apply our framework to the COMPAS recidivism dataset and a large motor insurance claims dataset.

Speech deepfake detectors usually emit one score per utterance, but a borderline score does not reveal why two examples differ during retrospective error analysis. We ask whether a final score can be calibrated from component fields while keeping those fields visible for inspection. We build a decision record with a passive detector score and a score from a probe applied to a marked copy. It also includes retrieval support held out of the evaluated family, a margin from a support-set profile, and raw neighbor closeness. A cross-fit calibrator combines these fields and two differences between raw scores into one final score. On matched ASVspoof development data, the calibrated record reduces equal error rate (EER) by 3.48 percentage points relative to the fixed retrieval-augmented rule. It reaches 8.43% EER, whereas a passive WavLM baseline reaches 6.71% on the same subset. The record is therefore not the strongest detector in this comparison. Its value is to retain inspectable component fields while producing one scalar score for retrospective diagnosis.

A critical component in the trustworthiness of LLMs is reliable uncertainty communication, yet LLMs often use assertive language when conveying false claims, leading to over-reliance and eroded trust. We present the first systematic study of faithful confidence calibration of LLMs, benchmarking models' ability to use linguistic expressions of uncertainty that faithfully reflect their intrinsic uncertainty, across a comprehensive array of models, datasets, and prompting strategies. Our results demonstrate that LLMs largely fail at this task, and that existing interventions are insufficient: standard prompt approaches provide only marginal gains, and existing, factuality-based calibration techniques can even harm faithful calibration. To address this critical gap, we introduce MetaFaith, a novel prompt-based calibration approach inspired by human metacognition. We show that MetaFaith robustly improves faithful calibration across diverse models and task domains, enabling up to 61% improvement in faithfulness and achieving an 83% win rate over original generations as judged by humans.

Training terminal agents requires executable and verifiable tasks that are not merely solvable, but appropriately challenging for learning. Executable validation establishes feasibility, yet does not reveal how a task behaves relative to a given solver setting. In this paper, we present CalibForge, an autonomous terminal-task synthesis system that uses verified solver behavior to revise candidate tasks through adversarial solver calibration. Multi-solver calibration targets disagreement within a heterogeneous solver pool, whereas contrastive solver calibration targets a designated strong-pass/weak-fail relation; both operationalize a solver-relative learnable zone anchored in demonstrated solvability. Using CalibForge, we construct 5,431 calibrated terminal tasks. Our ablations show that both strategies yield more effective supervision than authoring and validation alone or ordinary single-solver feedback. Models trained on the full collection achieve 32.58% and 47.57% on Terminal-Bench 2.0. The largest improvements over the corresponding base model reach 24.71 percentage points on Terminal-Bench 2.0, 27.68 points on SWE-bench Pro, and 30.04 points on Doc2Repo. Together, these results support solver-relative learnability as a practical target for constructing effective and transferable agent training data.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures scale model capacity through sparse expert activation, but their deployment remains memory-bound because all expert weights must reside in memory. Mixed-precision quantization can substantially reduce this footprint by assigning different bit-widths to different experts. Existing approaches, however, typically rely on calibration data to estimate expert importance and determine bit allocation. For frontier MoE LLMs, the original training data, and hence the true training distribution, is proprietary and inaccessible. As a result, calibration sets are inevitably imperfect surrogates, and this can misestimate expert utilization and lead to suboptimal bit allocation. Motivated by the substantial cross-expert quality variability observed in modern MoE models, and by the success of Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization (HT-SR) theory at predicting neural network model quality without access to training or testing data, we propose AlphaQ, a calibration-free bit-allocation method for MoE quantization. AlphaQ draws on HT-SR theory and follows a simple principle: experts with more heavy-tailed weight spectra are typically better trained and hence should receive higher bit-widths, while experts with weaker heavy-tailed structure can be quantized more aggressively. AlphaQ operationalizes this principle by measuring expert-wise spectral heavy-tailedness and solving a budget-constrained optimization problem that minimizes total quantization error under a global bit-budget constraint. Across several MoE models, AlphaQ consistently outperforms calibration-based baselines under matched bit budgets. Notably, on Qwen1.5-MoE, AlphaQ achieves near full-precision accuracy with an average expert precision of only 3.5 bits, while delivering more than 4times memory compression. Our code is available at https://github.com/Superone77/AlphaQ.

Service robots searching for household objects rely on spatial priors to reduce search cost, yet object locations can vary with resident traits. Collecting longitudinal, trait-specific in-home trajectories is invasive and hard to scale. We study when personalization helps and propose PerSim, a rigidity-gated hybrid policy that combines a trait-conditioned prior with a population-frequency baseline, personalizing only when placement behavior is variable. To scale resident-conditioned dynamics, we employ a human-calibrated simulation pipeline to generate and validate object-placement transitions in diverse home layouts, and train a predictor that injects continuous Big Five vectors to output room-level priors and within-room co-occurrence cues. In a unified human study (N=200), dual-layer validation shows that (i) synthetic transitions are judged behaviorally plausible (mean 3.85/5, p < 1e-6), and (ii) in a blinded A/B comparison, personalization is favored primarily for low-rigidity objects (p=0.005), while the population-frequency baseline remains strong for universally placed items, yielding a decision rule for when to personalize. In an offline objective test, we observe a small but significant improvement on unseen continuous trait vectors over nearest discrete configuration matching (p=0.035), supporting interpolation in five-dimensional trait space. Finally, in a home digital twin we show that PerSim reduces expected search cost by combining room visitation effort with within-room cue checking, demonstrating end-to-end gains beyond isolated prediction metrics.

The regression of 3D Human Pose and Shape (HPS) from an image is becoming increasingly accurate. This makes the results useful for downstream tasks like human action recognition or 3D graphics. Yet, no regressor is perfect, and accuracy can be affected by ambiguous image evidence or by poses and appearance that are unseen during training. Most current HPS regressors, however, do not report the confidence of their outputs, meaning that downstream tasks cannot differentiate accurate estimates from inaccurate ones. To address this, we develop POCO, a novel framework for training HPS regressors to estimate not only a 3D human body, but also their confidence, in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, POCO estimates both the 3D body pose and a per-sample variance. The key idea is to introduce a Dual Conditioning Strategy (DCS) for regressing uncertainty that is highly correlated to pose reconstruction quality. The POCO framework can be applied to any HPS regressor and here we evaluate it by modifying HMR, PARE, and CLIFF. In all cases, training the network to reason about uncertainty helps it learn to more accurately estimate 3D pose. While this was not our goal, the improvement is modest but consistent. Our main motivation is to provide uncertainty estimates for downstream tasks; we demonstrate this in two ways: (1) We use the confidence estimates to bootstrap HPS training. Given unlabelled image data, we take the confident estimates of a POCO-trained regressor as pseudo ground truth. Retraining with this automatically-curated data improves accuracy. (2) We exploit uncertainty in video pose estimation by automatically identifying uncertain frames (e.g. due to occlusion) and inpainting these from confident frames. Code and models will be available for research at https://poco.is.tue.mpg.de.

Existing 3D human pose estimation algorithms trained on distortion-free datasets suffer performance drop when applied to new scenarios with a specific camera distortion. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective model for 3D human pose estimation in video that can quickly adapt to any distortion environment by utilizing MAML, a representative optimization-based meta-learning algorithm. We consider a sequence of 2D keypoints in a particular distortion as a single task of MAML. However, due to the absence of a large-scale dataset in a distorted environment, we propose an efficient method to generate synthetic distorted data from undistorted 2D keypoints. For the evaluation, we assume two practical testing situations depending on whether a motion capture sensor is available or not. In particular, we propose Inference Stage Optimization using bone-length symmetry and consistency. Extensive evaluation shows that our proposed method successfully adapts to various degrees of distortion in the testing phase and outperforms the existing state-of-the-art approaches. The proposed method is useful in practice because it does not require camera calibration and additional computations in a testing set-up.

Unified large multimodal models (LMMs) have achieved remarkable progress in general-purpose multimodal understanding and generation. However, they still operate under a ``one-size-fits-all'' paradigm and struggle to model user-specific concepts (e.g., generate a photo of <maeve>) in a consistent and controllable manner. Existing personalization methods typically rely on external retrieval, which is inefficient and poorly integrated into unified multimodal pipelines. Recent personalized unified models introduce learnable soft prompts to encode concept information, yet they either couple understanding and generation or depend on complex multi-stage training, leading to cross-task interference and ultimately to fuzzy or misaligned personalized knowledge. We present OmniPersona, an end-to-end personalization framework for unified LMMs that, for the first time, integrates personalized understanding, generation, and image editing within a single architecture. OmniPersona introduces structurally decoupled concept tokens, allocating dedicated subspaces for different tasks to minimize interference, and incorporates an explicit knowledge replay mechanism that propagates personalized attribute knowledge across tasks, enabling consistent personalized behavior. To systematically evaluate unified personalization, we propose \texttt{OmniPBench}, extending the public UnifyBench concept set with personalized editing tasks and cross-task evaluation protocols integrating understanding, generation, and editing. Experimental results demonstrate that OmniPersona delivers competitive and robust performance across diverse personalization tasks. We hope OmniPersona will serve as a strong baseline and spur further research on controllable, unified personalization.

Graph-augmented retrieval combines dense similarity with graph-based relevance signals such as Personalized PageRank (PPR), but these scores have different distributions and are not directly comparable. We study this as a score calibration problem for heterogeneous retrieval fusion in multi-hop question answering. Our method, PhaseGraph, maps vector and graph scores to a common unit-free scale using percentile-rank normalization (PIT) before fusion, enabling stable combination without discarding magnitude information. Across MuSiQue and 2WikiMultiHopQA, calibrated fusion improves held-out last-hop retrieval on HippoRAG2-style benchmarks: LastHop@5 increases from 75.1% to 76.5% on MuSiQue (8W/1L, p=0.039) and from 51.7% to 53.6% on 2WikiMultiHopQA (11W/2L, p=0.023), both on independent held-out test splits. A theory-driven ablation shows that percentile-based calibration is directionally more robust than min-max normalization on both tune and test splits (1W/6L, p=0.125), while Boltzmann weighting performs comparably to linear fusion after calibration (0W/3L, p=0.25). These results suggest that score commensuration is a robust design choice, and the exact post-calibration operator appears to matter less on these benchmarks.

Quantization is an effective technique for reducing the storage footprint and computational costs of Large Language Models (LLMs), but it often results in performance degradation. Existing post-training quantization methods typically use small, English-only calibration sets; however, their impact on multilingual models remains underexplored. We systematically evaluate eight calibration settings (five single-language and three multilingual mixes) on two quantizers (GPTQ, AWQ) on data from 10 languages. Our findings reveal a consistent trend: non-English and multilingual calibration sets significantly improve perplexity compared to English-only baselines. Specifically, we observe notable average perplexity gains across both quantizers on Llama3.1 8B and Qwen2.5 7B, with multilingual mixes achieving the largest overall reductions of up to 3.52 points in perplexity. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that tailoring calibration sets to the evaluation language yields the largest improvements for individual languages, underscoring the importance of linguistic alignment. We also identify specific failure cases where certain language-quantizer combinations degrade performance, which we trace to differences in activation range distributions across languages. These results highlight that static one-size-fits-all calibration is suboptimal and that tailoring calibration data, both in language and diversity, plays a crucial role in robustly quantizing multilingual LLMs.

We address the problem of fitting a parametric human body model (SMPL) to point cloud data. Optimization-based methods require careful initialization and are prone to becoming trapped in local optima. Learning-based methods address this but do not generalize well when the input pose is far from those seen during training. For rigid point clouds, remarkable generalization has been achieved by leveraging SE(3)-equivariant networks, but these methods do not work on articulated objects. In this work we extend this idea to human bodies and propose ArtEq, a novel part-based SE(3)-equivariant neural architecture for SMPL model estimation from point clouds. Specifically, we learn a part detection network by leveraging local SO(3) invariance, and regress shape and pose using articulated SE(3) shape-invariant and pose-equivariant networks, all trained end-to-end. Our novel pose regression module leverages the permutation-equivariant property of self-attention layers to preserve rotational equivariance. Experimental results show that ArtEq generalizes to poses not seen during training, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by ~44% in terms of body reconstruction accuracy, without requiring an optimization refinement step. Furthermore, ArtEq is three orders of magnitude faster during inference than prior work and has 97.3% fewer parameters. The code and model are available for research purposes at https://arteq.is.tue.mpg.de.

This work targets at using a general deep learning framework to synthesize free-viewpoint images of arbitrary human performers, only requiring a sparse number of camera views as inputs and skirting per-case fine-tuning. The large variation of geometry and appearance, caused by articulated body poses, shapes and clothing types, are the key bottlenecks of this task. To overcome these challenges, we present a simple yet powerful framework, named Generalizable Neural Performer (GNR), that learns a generalizable and robust neural body representation over various geometry and appearance. Specifically, we compress the light fields for novel view human rendering as conditional implicit neural radiance fields from both geometry and appearance aspects. We first introduce an Implicit Geometric Body Embedding strategy to enhance the robustness based on both parametric 3D human body model and multi-view images hints. We further propose a Screen-Space Occlusion-Aware Appearance Blending technique to preserve the high-quality appearance, through interpolating source view appearance to the radiance fields with a relax but approximate geometric guidance. To evaluate our method, we present our ongoing effort of constructing a dataset with remarkable complexity and diversity. The dataset GeneBody-1.0, includes over 360M frames of 370 subjects under multi-view cameras capturing, performing a large variety of pose actions, along with diverse body shapes, clothing, accessories and hairdos. Experiments on GeneBody-1.0 and ZJU-Mocap show better robustness of our methods than recent state-of-the-art generalizable methods among all cross-dataset, unseen subjects and unseen poses settings. We also demonstrate the competitiveness of our model compared with cutting-edge case-specific ones. Dataset, code and model will be made publicly available.

The fusion of LiDARs and cameras has been increasingly adopted in autonomous driving for perception tasks. The performance of such fusion-based algorithms largely depends on the accuracy of sensor calibration, which is challenging due to the difficulty of identifying common features across different data modalities. Previously, many calibration methods involved specific targets and/or manual intervention, which has proven to be cumbersome and costly. Learning-based online calibration methods have been proposed, but their performance is barely satisfactory in most cases. These methods usually suffer from issues such as sparse feature maps, unreliable cross-modality association, inaccurate calibration parameter regression, etc. In this paper, to address these issues, we propose CalibFormer, an end-to-end network for automatic LiDAR-camera calibration. We aggregate multiple layers of camera and LiDAR image features to achieve high-resolution representations. A multi-head correlation module is utilized to identify correlations between features more accurately. Lastly, we employ transformer architectures to estimate accurate calibration parameters from the correlation information. Our method achieved a mean translation error of 0.8751 cm and a mean rotation error of 0.0562 ^{circ} on the KITTI dataset, surpassing existing state-of-the-art methods and demonstrating strong robustness, accuracy, and generalization capabilities.

We present Midicoth, a lossless compression system that introduces a micro-diffusion denoising layer for improving probability estimates produced by adaptive statistical models. In compressors such as Prediction by Partial Matching (PPM), probability estimates are smoothed by a prior to handle sparse observations. When contexts have been seen only a few times, this prior dominates the prediction and produces distributions that are significantly flatter than the true source distribution, leading to compression inefficiency. Midicoth addresses this limitation by treating prior smoothing as a shrinkage process and applying a reverse denoising step that corrects predicted probabilities using empirical calibration statistics. To make this correction data-efficient, the method decomposes each byte prediction into a hierarchy of binary decisions along a bitwise tree. This converts a single 256-way calibration problem into a sequence of binary calibration tasks, enabling reliable estimation of correction terms from relatively small numbers of observations. The denoising process is applied in multiple successive steps, allowing each stage to refine residual prediction errors left by the previous one. The micro-diffusion layer operates as a lightweight post-blend calibration stage applied after all model predictions have been combined, allowing it to correct systematic biases in the final probability distribution. Midicoth combines five fully online components: an adaptive PPM model, a long-range match model, a trie-based word model, a high-order context model, and the micro-diffusion denoiser applied as the final stage.

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration, that serves as a black-box deployment gate with exact, finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees. Self-consistency sampling reduces uncertainty exponentially; conformal calibration guarantees correctness within 1/(n+1) of the target level, regardless of the system's errors -- made transparently visible through larger answer sets for harder questions. Weaker models earn lower reliability levels (not accuracy -- see Definition 2.4): GPT-4.1 earns 94.6% on GSM8K and 96.8% on TruthfulQA, while GPT-4.1-nano earns 89.8% on GSM8K and 66.5% on MMLU. We validate across five benchmarks, five models from three families, and both synthetic and real data. Conditional coverage on solvable items exceeds 0.93 across all configurations; sequential stopping reduces API costs by around 50%.

Driving a high-quality and photorealistic full-body virtual human from a few RGB cameras is a challenging problem that has become increasingly relevant with emerging virtual reality technologies. A promising solution to democratize such technology would be a generalizable method that takes sparse multi-view images of any person and then generates photoreal free-view renderings of them. However, the state-of-the-art approaches are not scalable to very large datasets and, thus, lack diversity and photorealism. To address this problem, we propose GIGA, a novel, generalizable full-body model for rendering photoreal humans in free viewpoint, driven by a single-view or sparse multi-view video. Notably, GIGA can scale training to a few thousand subjects while maintaining high photorealism and synthesizing dynamic appearance. At the core, we introduce a MultiHeadUNet architecture, which takes an approximate RGB texture accumulated from a single or multiple sparse views and predicts 3D Gaussian primitives represented as 2D texels on top of a human body mesh. At test time, our method performs novel view synthesis of a virtual 3D Gaussian-based human from 1 to 4 input views and a tracked body template for unseen identities. Our method excels over prior works by a significant margin in terms of identity generalization capability and photorealism.

Existing calibration methods occasionally fail for large field-of-view cameras due to the non-linearity of the underlying problem and the lack of good initial values for all parameters of the used camera model. This might occur because a simpler projection model is assumed in an initial step, or a poor initial guess for the internal parameters is pre-defined. A lot of the difficulties of general camera calibration lie in the use of a forward projection model. We side-step these challenges by first proposing a solver to calibrate the parameters in terms of a back-projection model and then regress the parameters for a target forward model. These steps are incorporated in a robust estimation framework to cope with outlying detections. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach is very reliable and returns the most accurate calibration parameters as measured on the downstream task of absolute pose estimation on test sets. The code is released at https://github.com/ylochman/babelcalib.

Monocular 3D human pose estimation has made progress in recent years. Most of the methods focus on single persons, which estimate the poses in the person-centric coordinates, i.e., the coordinates based on the center of the target person. Hence, these methods are inapplicable for multi-person 3D pose estimation, where the absolute coordinates (e.g., the camera coordinates) are required. Moreover, multi-person pose estimation is more challenging than single pose estimation, due to inter-person occlusion and close human interactions. Existing top-down multi-person methods rely on human detection (i.e., top-down approach), and thus suffer from the detection errors and cannot produce reliable pose estimation in multi-person scenes. Meanwhile, existing bottom-up methods that do not use human detection are not affected by detection errors, but since they process all persons in a scene at once, they are prone to errors, particularly for persons in small scales. To address all these challenges, we propose the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches to exploit their strengths. Our top-down network estimates human joints from all persons instead of one in an image patch, making it robust to possible erroneous bounding boxes. Our bottom-up network incorporates human-detection based normalized heatmaps, allowing the network to be more robust in handling scale variations. Finally, the estimated 3D poses from the top-down and bottom-up networks are fed into our integration network for final 3D poses. To address the common gaps between training and testing data, we do optimization during the test time, by refining the estimated 3D human poses using high-order temporal constraint, re-projection loss, and bone length regularizations. Our evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Code and models are available: https://github.com/3dpose/3D-Multi-Person-Pose.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

In this paper, we introduce a method for reconstructing 3D humans from a single image using a biomechanically accurate skeleton model. To achieve this, we train a transformer that takes an image as input and estimates the parameters of the model. Due to the lack of training data for this task, we build a pipeline to produce pseudo ground truth model parameters for single images and implement a training procedure that iteratively refines these pseudo labels. Compared to state-of-the-art methods for 3D human mesh recovery, our model achieves competitive performance on standard benchmarks, while it significantly outperforms them in settings with extreme 3D poses and viewpoints. Additionally, we show that previous reconstruction methods frequently violate joint angle limits, leading to unnatural rotations. In contrast, our approach leverages the biomechanically plausible degrees of freedom making more realistic joint rotation estimates. We validate our approach across multiple human pose estimation benchmarks. We make the code, models and data available at: https://isshikihugh.github.io/HSMR/

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as evaluators in lieu of humans. While scalable, their judgments are noisy due to imperfect specificity and sensitivity of LLMs, leading to biased accuracy estimates. Although bias-correction methods exist, they are underutilized in LLM research and typically assume exact knowledge of the model's specificity and sensitivity. Furthermore, in general we only have estimates of these values and it is not well known how to properly construct confidence intervals using only estimates. This work presents a simple plug-in framework that corrects such bias and constructs confidence intervals reflecting uncertainty from both test and calibration dataset, enabling practical and statistically sound LLM-based evaluation. Additionally, to reduce uncertainty in the accuracy estimate, we introduce an adaptive algorithm that efficiently allocates calibration sample sizes.

Large language models (LLMs) offer powerful capabilities but incur substantial computational costs, driving the need for efficient compression techniques. This study evaluates the impact of popular compression methods - Magnitude Pruning, SparseGPT, and Wanda - on the LLaMA-2-7B model, focusing on the trade-offs between model size reduction, downstream task performance, and the role of calibration data. Our findings reveal that while SparseGPT and Wanda preserve perplexity even at 50% sparsity, they suffer significant degradation on downstream tasks, highlighting the inadequacy of perplexity as the sole evaluation metric. To address this, we introduce Jensen-Shannon (JS) Divergence as a more comprehensive metric that captures nuanced changes in model behavior post-compression. We further demonstrate that task-specific calibration data significantly enhances the downstream performance of compressed models compared to general calibration data. This research underscores the necessity for diverse evaluation metrics and careful calibration data selection to fully understand the complexities of LLM compression and its implications for practical applications.

Methods based on weight compensation, which iteratively apply quantization and weight compensation to minimize the output error, have recently demonstrated remarkable success in quantizing Large Language Models (LLMs). The representative work, GPTQ, introduces several key techniques that make such iterative methods practical for LLMs with billions of parameters. GPTAQ extends this approach by introducing an asymmetric calibration process that aligns the output of each quantized layer with its full-precision counterpart, incorporating a residual error into the weight compensation framework. In this work, we revisit the formulation of the residual error. We identify a sub-optimal calibration objective in existing methods: during the intra-layer calibration process, they align the quantized output with the output from compensated weights, rather than the true output from the original full-precision model. Therefore, we redefine the objective to precisely align the quantized model's output with the original output of the full-precision model at each step. We then reveal that the residual error originates not only from the output difference of the preceding layer but also from the discrepancy between the compensated and original weights within each layer, which we name the 'compensation-aware error'. By inheriting the neuron decomposition technique from GPTAQ, we can efficiently incorporate this compensation-aware error into the weight update process. Extensive experiments on various LLMs and quantization settings demonstrate that our proposed enhancements integrate seamlessly with both GPTQ and GPTAQ, significantly improving their quantization performance. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/list0830/ResComp.