Daily Papers

This paper aims to overcome the "lost-in-the-middle" challenge of large language models (LLMs). While recent advancements have successfully enabled LLMs to perform stable language modeling with up to 4 million tokens, the persistent difficulty faced by most LLMs in identifying relevant information situated in the middle of the context has not been adequately tackled. To address this problem, this paper introduces Multi-scale Positional Encoding (Ms-PoE) which is a simple yet effective plug-and-play approach to enhance the capacity of LLMs to handle the relevant information located in the middle of the context, without fine-tuning or introducing any additional overhead. Ms-PoE leverages the position indice rescaling to relieve the long-term decay effect introduced by RoPE, while meticulously assigning distinct scaling ratios to different attention heads to preserve essential knowledge learned during the pre-training step, forming a multi-scale context fusion from short to long distance. Extensive experiments with a wide range of LLMs demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. Notably, Ms-PoE achieves an average accuracy gain of up to 3.8 on the Zero-SCROLLS benchmark over the original LLMs. Code are available at https://github.com/VITA-Group/Ms-PoE.

Recent Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) present remarkable zero-shot conversational and reasoning capabilities given multimodal queries. Nevertheless, they suffer from object hallucination, a phenomenon where LVLMs are prone to generate textual responses not factually aligned with image inputs. Our pilot study reveals that object hallucination is closely tied with Rotary Position Encoding (RoPE), a widely adopted positional dependency modeling design in existing LVLMs. Due to the long-term decay in RoPE, LVLMs tend to hallucinate more when relevant visual cues are distant from instruction tokens in the multimodal input sequence. Additionally, we observe a similar effect when reversing the sequential order of visual tokens during multimodal alignment. Our tests indicate that long-term decay in RoPE poses challenges to LVLMs while capturing visual-instruction interactions across long distances. We propose Concentric Causal Attention (CCA), a simple yet effective positional alignment strategy that mitigates the impact of RoPE long-term decay in LVLMs by naturally reducing relative distance between visual and instruction tokens. With CCA, visual tokens can better interact with instruction tokens, thereby enhancing model's perception capability and alleviating object hallucination. Without bells and whistles, our positional alignment method surpasses existing hallucination mitigation strategies by large margins on multiple object hallucination benchmarks.

Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of position encoding in transformer architectures. By incorporating positional information, this approach provides essential guidance for modeling dependencies between elements across different sequence positions. We introduce CoPE (a lightweight Complex Positional Encoding), a novel architecture that leverages complex-valued encoding to encode both content and positional information. Our approach replaces traditional positional encodings with complex embeddings where the real part captures semantic content and the imaginary part encodes positional information. We introduce phase-aware attention in the first layer of the transformer model to capture position-dependent patterns, followed by standard attention layers for higher-levels. We show that CoPE doesn't exhibit long term decay and is compatible with linear attention. Experimental evaluation on the GLUE benchmark suggest that our approach achieves superior performance with less computational complexity, compared to RoPE, Sinusoidal and Learned positional encodings.

Position embedding is a core component of current Large Language Models (LLMs). Rotary position embedding (RoPE), a technique that encodes the position information with a rotation matrix, has been the de facto choice for position embedding in many LLMs, such as the Llama series. RoPE has been further utilized to extend long context capability, which is roughly based on adjusting the base parameter of RoPE to mitigate out-of-distribution (OOD) problems in position embedding. However, in this paper, we find that LLMs may obtain a superficial long-context ability based on the OOD theory. We revisit the role of RoPE in LLMs and propose a novel property of long-term decay, we derive that the base of RoPE bounds context length: there is an absolute lower bound for the base value to obtain certain context length capability. Our work reveals the relationship between context length and RoPE base both theoretically and empirically, which may shed light on future long context training.

Recent studies have revealed various manifestations of position bias in transformer architectures, from the "lost-in-the-middle" phenomenon to attention sinks, yet a comprehensive theoretical understanding of how attention masks and positional encodings shape these biases remains elusive. This paper presents a graph-theoretic framework for analyzing position bias in multi-layer attention. Modeling attention masks as directed graphs, we quantify how tokens interact with contextual information based on their sequential positions. We uncover two key insights: First, causal masking inherently biases attention toward earlier positions, as tokens in deeper layers attend to increasingly more contextualized representations of earlier tokens. Second, we characterize the competing effects of the causal mask and relative positional encodings, such as the decay mask and rotary positional encoding (RoPE): while both mechanisms introduce distance-based decay within individual attention maps, their aggregate effect across multiple attention layersx2013coupled with the causal maskx2013leads to a trade-off between the long-term decay effects and the cumulative importance of early sequence positions. Through controlled numerical experiments, we not only validate our theoretical findings but also reproduce position biases observed in real-world LLMs. Our framework offers a principled foundation for understanding positional biases in transformers, shedding light on the complex interplay of attention mechanism components and guiding more informed architectural design.

Vision-language Models (VLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in advancing general artificial intelligence, yet the irrational encoding of visual positions persists in inhibiting the models' comprehensive perception performance across different levels of granularity. In this work, we propose Pyramid-descent Visual Position Encoding (PyPE), a novel approach designed to enhance the perception of visual tokens within VLMs. By assigning visual position indexes from the periphery to the center and expanding the central receptive field incrementally, PyPE addresses the limitations of traditional raster-scan methods and mitigates the long-term decay effects induced by Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE). Our method reduces the relative distance between interrelated visual elements and instruction tokens, promoting a more rational allocation of attention weights and allowing for a multi-granularity perception of visual elements and countering the over-reliance on anchor tokens. Extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that PyPE consistently improves the general capabilities of VLMs across various sizes. Code is available at https://github.com/SakuraTroyChen/PyPE.

We present XMem, a video object segmentation architecture for long videos with unified feature memory stores inspired by the Atkinson-Shiffrin memory model. Prior work on video object segmentation typically only uses one type of feature memory. For videos longer than a minute, a single feature memory model tightly links memory consumption and accuracy. In contrast, following the Atkinson-Shiffrin model, we develop an architecture that incorporates multiple independent yet deeply-connected feature memory stores: a rapidly updated sensory memory, a high-resolution working memory, and a compact thus sustained long-term memory. Crucially, we develop a memory potentiation algorithm that routinely consolidates actively used working memory elements into the long-term memory, which avoids memory explosion and minimizes performance decay for long-term prediction. Combined with a new memory reading mechanism, XMem greatly exceeds state-of-the-art performance on long-video datasets while being on par with state-of-the-art methods (that do not work on long videos) on short-video datasets. Code is available at https://hkchengrex.github.io/XMem

Recent advances in learning rate (LR) scheduling have demonstrated the effectiveness of decay-free approaches that eliminate the traditional decay phase while maintaining competitive performance. Model merging techniques have emerged as particularly promising solutions in this domain. We present Warmup-Stable and Merge (WSM), a general framework that establishes a formal connection between learning rate decay and model merging. WSM provides a unified theoretical foundation for emulating various decay strategies-including cosine decay, linear decay and inverse square root decay-as principled model averaging schemes, while remaining fully compatible with diverse optimization methods. Through extensive experiments, we identify merge duration-the training window for checkpoint aggregation-as the most critical factor influencing model performance, surpassing the importance of both checkpoint interval and merge quantity. Our framework consistently outperforms the widely-adopted Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) approach across multiple benchmarks, achieving significant improvements of +3.5% on MATH, +2.9% on HumanEval, and +5.5% on MMLU-Pro. The performance advantages extend to supervised fine-tuning scenarios, highlighting WSM's potential for long-term model refinement.

Context. Recent developments in exoplanetary research highlight the importance of Love numbers in understanding their internal dynamics, formation, migration history and their potential habitability. Love numbers represent crucial parameters that gauge how exoplanets respond to external forces such as tidal interactions and rotational effects. By measuring these responses, we can gain insights into the internal structure, composition, and density distribution of exoplanets. The rate of apsidal precession of a planetary orbit is directly linked to the second-order fluid Love number, thus we can gain valuable insights into the mass distribution of the planet. Aims. In this context, we aim to re-determine the orbital parameters of WASP-43b-in particular, orbital period, eccentricity, and argument of the periastron-and its orbital evolution. We study the outcomes of the tidal interaction with the host star:whether tidal decay and periastron precession are occurring in the system. Method. We observed the system with HARPS, whose data we present for the first time, and we also analyse the newly acquired JWST full-phase light curve. We fit jointly archival and new radial velocity and transit and occultation mid-times, including tidal decay, periastron precession and long-term acceleration in the system. Results. We detected a tidal decay rate of \dotP_a=(-1.99pm0.50) and a periastron precession rate of \dotomega=(0.1851+0.0070-0.0077)=(0.1727+0.0083-0.0089)deg/d=(621.72+29.88-32.04)arcsec/d. This is the first time that both periastron precession and tidal decay are simultaneously detected in an exoplanetary system. The observed tidal interactions can neither be explained by the tidal contribution to apsidal motion of a non-aligned stellar or planetary rotation axis nor by assuming non-synchronous rotation for the planet, and a value for the planetary Love number cannot be derived. [...]

Autoregressive video diffusion models enable open-ended generation through local attention and KV caching. However, existing training-free long-video optimization methods mainly focus on stable extension under a single prompt, making them difficult to handle interactive scenarios involving prompt switching, old scene forgetting, and historical scene recall. We identify the core bottleneck as the functional entanglement of historical KV states: stable anchors and recent dynamics are handled by the same cache policy, leading to outdated background contamination, delayed response to new prompts, and loss of long-range memory. To address this issue, we propose Echo-Forcing, a training-free scene memory framework specifically designed for interactive long video generation with three core mechanisms: (1) Hierarchical Temporal Memory, which decouples stable anchors, compressed history, and recent windows under relative RoPE; (2) Scene Recall Frames, which compresses historical scenes into spatially structured KV representations to support long-term recall; and (3) Difference-aware Memory Decay, which adaptively forgets conflicting tokens according to the discrepancy between old and new scenes. Based on these designs, Echo-Forcing uniformly supports smooth transitions, hard cuts, and long-range scene recall under a bounded cache budget. Extensive evaluations on VBench-Long further demonstrate that Echo-Forcing achieves the best overall performance in both long-video generation and interactive video generation settings. Our code is released in https://github.com/mingqiangWu/Echo-Forcing

Large pre-trained models decay over long-term deployment as input distributions shift, user requirements change, or crucial knowledge gaps are discovered. Recently, model editors have been proposed to modify a model's behavior by adjusting its weights during deployment. However, when editing the same model multiple times, these approaches quickly decay a model's performance on upstream data and forget how to fix previous errors. We propose and study a novel Lifelong Model Editing setting, where streaming errors are identified for a deployed model and we update the model to correct its predictions without influencing unrelated inputs without access to training edits, exogenous datasets, or any upstream data for the edited model. To approach this problem, we introduce General Retrieval Adaptors for Continual Editing, or GRACE, which learns to cache a chosen layer's activations in an adaptive codebook as edits stream in, leaving original model weights frozen. GRACE can thus edit models thousands of times in a row using only streaming errors, without influencing unrelated inputs. Experimentally, we show that GRACE improves over recent alternatives and generalizes to unseen inputs. Our code is available at https://www.github.com/thartvigsen/grace.

Memory and computation remain core bottlenecks in long-horizon LLM inference due to the quadratic cost of self-attention and the ever-growing key-value (KV) cache. Existing strategies for memory-bounded inference, such as quantization, offloading, or heuristic KV eviction, either incur high orchestration costs or rely on unreliable attention-based proxies of importance. We propose TRIM-KV, a novel approach that learns each token's intrinsic importance at creation time via a lightweight retention gate. Each gate predicts a scalar retention score that decays over time, reflecting the long-term utility of the token for a specific layer and head. Tokens with low scores are evicted when the memory budget is exceeded, ensuring that the cache always contains the most critical tokens. TRIM-KV is trained efficiently through distillation from a frozen LLM combined with a capacity loss, requiring only gate fine-tuning and adding negligible inference overhead. Across mathematical reasoning (GSM8K, MATH-500, AIME24), procedural generation (LongProc), conversational long-memory benchmarks (LongMemEval), and long-context understanding (LongBench and SCBench), TRIM-KV consistently outperforms strong eviction and learnable retrieval baselines, especially in low-memory regimes. Remarkably, it even surpasses full-cache models in some settings, showing that selective retention can serve as a form of regularization, suppressing noise from uninformative tokens. Qualitative analyses further reveal that learned retention scores align with human intuition, naturally recovering heuristics such as sink tokens, sliding windows, and gist compression without explicit design. Beyond efficiency, retention scores provide insights into layer- and head-specific roles, suggesting a new path toward LLM interpretability.

Automating scientific discovery in complex, experiment-driven domains requires more than iterative mutation of programs; it demands structured hypothesis management, environment interaction, and principled reflection. We present OR-Agent, a configurable multi-agent research framework designed for automated exploration in rich experimental environments. OR-Agent organizes research as a structured tree-based workflow that explicitly models branching hypothesis generation and systematic backtracking, enabling controlled management of research trajectories beyond simple mutation-crossover loops. At its core, we introduce an evolutionary-systematic ideation mechanism that unifies evolutionary selection of research starting points, comprehensive research plan generation, and coordinated exploration within a research tree. We introduce a hierarchical optimization-inspired reflection system in which short-term reflections act as verbal gradients, long-term reflections as verbal momentum, and memory compression as semantic weight decay, collectively forming a principled mechanism for governing research dynamics. We conduct extensive experiments across classical combinatorial optimization benchmarks as well as simulation-based cooperative driving scenarios. Results demonstrate that OR-Agent outperforms strong evolutionary baselines while providing a general, extensible, and inspectable framework for AI-assisted scientific discovery. All code and experimental data are publicly available at https://github.com/qiliuchn/OR-Agent.

Recent advances in diffusion models have enabled high-quality video generation, but the additional temporal dimension significantly increases computational costs, making training and inference on long videos prohibitively expensive. In this paper, we identify a phenomenon we term Spatiotemporal Energy Decay in video diffusion models: post-softmax attention scores diminish as spatial and temporal distance between tokens increase, akin to the physical decay of signal or waves over space and time in nature. Motivated by this, we propose Radial Attention, a scalable sparse attention mechanism with O(n log n) complexity that translates energy decay into exponentially decaying compute density, which is significantly more efficient than standard O(n^2) dense attention and more expressive than linear attention. Specifically, Radial Attention employs a simple, static attention mask where each token attends to spatially nearby tokens, with the attention window size shrinking with temporal distance. Moreover, it allows pre-trained video diffusion models to extend their generation length with efficient LoRA-based fine-tuning. Extensive experiments show that Radial Attention maintains video quality across Wan2.1-14B, HunyuanVideo, and Mochi 1, achieving up to a 1.9times speedup over the original dense attention. With minimal tuning, it enables video generation up to 4times longer while reducing training costs by up to 4.4times compared to direct fine-tuning and accelerating inference by up to 3.7times compared to dense attention inference.

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems from short-term observations remains a fundamental and underexplored challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Existing approaches often rely on long-term training data or focus on short-term sequence correlations, struggling to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. We propose PhyxMamba, a novel framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to capture the underlying dynamics of chaotic systems. By reconstructing the attractor manifold from brief observations using time-delay embeddings, PhyxMamba extracts global dynamical features essential for accurate forecasting. Our generative training scheme enables Mamba to replicate the physical process, augmented by multi-token prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing prediction accuracy and preserving key statistical invariants. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior long-term forecasting and faithfully captures essential dynamical invariants from short-term data. This framework opens new avenues for reliably predicting chaotic systems under observation-scarce conditions, with broad implications across climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, and beyond. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PhyxMamba.

Deploying GRPO on Flow Matching models has proven effective for text-to-image generation. However, existing paradigms typically propagate an outcome-based reward to all preceding denoising steps without distinguishing the local effect of each step. Moreover, current group-wise ranking mainly compares trajectories at matched timesteps and ignores within-trajectory dependencies, where certain early denoising actions can affect later states via delayed, implicit interactions. We propose TurningPoint-GRPO (TP-GRPO), a GRPO framework that alleviates step-wise reward sparsity and explicitly models long-term effects within the denoising trajectory. TP-GRPO makes two key innovations: (i) it replaces outcome-based rewards with step-level incremental rewards, providing a dense, step-aware learning signal that better isolates each denoising action's "pure" effect, and (ii) it identifies turning points-steps that flip the local reward trend and make subsequent reward evolution consistent with the overall trajectory trend-and assigns these actions an aggregated long-term reward to capture their delayed impact. Turning points are detected solely via sign changes in incremental rewards, making TP-GRPO efficient and hyperparameter-free. Extensive experiments also demonstrate that TP-GRPO exploits reward signals more effectively and consistently improves generation. Demo code is available at https://github.com/YunzeTong/TurningPoint-GRPO.

As LLM agents tackle increasingly complex tasks, a critical question is whether they can maintain strategic coherence over long horizons: planning under uncertainty, learning from delayed feedback, and adapting when early mistakes compound. We introduce YC-Bench, a benchmark that evaluates these capabilities by tasking an agent with running a simulated startup over a one-year horizon spanning hundreds of turns. The agent must manage employees, select task contracts, and maintain profitability in a partially observable environment where adversarial clients and growing payroll create compounding consequences for poor decisions. We evaluate 12 models, both proprietary and open source, across 3 seeds each. Only three models consistently surpass the starting capital of \200K, with Claude Opus 4.6 achieving the highest average final funds at 1.27 M, followed by GLM-5 at \1.21 M at 11\times lower inference cost. Scratchpad usage, the sole mechanism for persisting information across context truncation, is the strongest predictor of success, and adversarial client detection is the primary failure mode, accounting for 47\% of bankruptcies. Our analysis reveals that frontier models still fail through distinct failure modes such as over-parallelization, demonstrating the capability gaps for long-horizon performance. YC-Bench$ is open-source, reproducible, and configurable.

Since the dawn of human civilization, trust has been the core challenge of social organization. Trust functions to reduce the effort spent in constantly monitoring others' actions in order to verify their assertions, thus facilitating cooperation by allowing groups to function with reduced complexity. To date, in modern societies, large scale trust is almost exclusively provided by large centralized institutions. Specifically in the case of the Internet, Big Tech companies maintain the largest Internet platforms where users can interact, transact and share information. Thus, they control who can interact and conduct transactions through their monopoly of online trust. However, as recent events have shown, allowing for-profit corporations to act as gatekeepers to the online world comes with a litany of problems. While so far ecosystems of trust on the Internet could only be feasibly created by large institutions, Web3 proponents have a vision of the Internet where trust is generated without centralised actors. They attempt to do so by creating an ecosystem of trust constructed using decentralised technology. This survey explores this elusive goal of Web3 to create a "Universal Trust Machine", which in a true decentralised paradigm would be owned by both nobody and everybody. In order to do so, we first motivate the decades-old problem of generating trust without an intermediary by discussing Robert Axelrod's research on the evolution of cooperation. Next, we present the challenges that would have to be overcome in order to enable long term cooperation. We proceed to present various reputation systems, all of which present promising techniques for encouraging trustworthy behaviour. Then, we discuss Distributed Ledger technologies whose secure transaction facilitating and privacy preserving techniques promise to be a good complement to the current limitations of vanilla reputation systems.

The advancement of artificial intelligence toward agentic science is currently bottlenecked by the challenge of ultra-long-horizon autonomy, the ability to sustain strategic coherence and iterative correction over experimental cycles spanning days or weeks. While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated prowess in short-horizon reasoning, they are easily overwhelmed by execution details in the high-dimensional, delayed-feedback environments of real-world research, failing to consolidate sparse feedback into coherent long-term guidance. Here, we present ML-Master 2.0, an autonomous agent that masters ultra-long-horizon machine learning engineering (MLE) which is a representative microcosm of scientific discovery. By reframing context management as a process of cognitive accumulation, our approach introduces Hierarchical Cognitive Caching (HCC), a multi-tiered architecture inspired by computer systems that enables the structural differentiation of experience over time. By dynamically distilling transient execution traces into stable knowledge and cross-task wisdom, HCC allows agents to decouple immediate execution from long-term experimental strategy, effectively overcoming the scaling limits of static context windows. In evaluations on OpenAI's MLE-Bench under 24-hour budgets, ML-Master 2.0 achieves a state-of-the-art medal rate of 56.44%. Our findings demonstrate that ultra-long-horizon autonomy provides a scalable blueprint for AI capable of autonomous exploration beyond human-precedent complexities.

Blazars, a class of active galactic nuclei (AGN) powered by supermassive black holes, are known for their remarkable variability across multiple timescales and wavelengths. With advancements in both ground- and space-based telescopes, our understanding of AGN central engines has significantly improved. However, the mechanisms driving this variability remain elusive, and continue to fascinate both theorists and observers alike. The primary objective of this study is to constrain the X-ray variability properties of the TeV blazar PKS 2155-304. We conduct a comprehensive X-ray spectral and timing analysis, focusing on both long-term and intra-day variability. This analysis uses data from 22 epochs of XMM-Newton EPIC-pn observations, collected over 15 years (2000-2014). To investigate the variability of the source, we applied both timing and spectral analyses. For the timing analysis, we estimated fractional variability, variability amplitude, minimum variability timescales, flux distribution, and power spectral density (PSD). In the spectral analysis, we fitted the X-ray spectra using power-law, log-parabola, and broken power-law (BPL) models to determine the best-fitting parameters. Additionally, we studied the hardness ratio (HR). We observed moderate intra-day variability in most of the light curves. Seven out of the twenty-two observations showed a clear bimodal flux distribution, indicating the presence of two distinct flux states. Our analysis revealed a variable power-law PSD slope. Most HR plots did not show significant variation with flux, except for one observation (OBSID 0124930501), where HR increased with flux (Count/s). The fitted X-ray spectra favored the BPL model for the majority of observations. The findings of this work shed light on the intraday variability of blazars, providing insights into the non-thermal jet processes that drive the observed flux variations.

LLM-based agents are increasingly deployed to handle streaming tasks, yet they often remain one-off problem solvers that fail to learn from past interactions. Reusable skills distilled from experience provide a natural substrate for self-evolution, where high-quality skill curation serves as the key bottleneck. Existing approaches either rely on manual skill curation, prescribe heuristic skill operations, or train for short-horizon skill operations. However, they still struggle to learn complex long-term curation policies from indirect and delayed feedback. To tackle this challenge, we propose SkillOS, an experience-driven RL training recipe for learning skill curation in self-evolving agents. SkillOS pairs a frozen agent executor that retrieves and applies skills with a trainable skill curator that updates an external SkillRepo from accumulated experience. To provide learning signals for curation, we design composite rewards and train on grouped task streams based on skill-relevant task dependencies, where earlier trajectories update the SkillRepo, and later related tasks evaluate these updates. Across multi-turn agentic tasks and single-turn reasoning tasks, SkillOS consistently outperforms memory-free and strong memory-based baselines in both effectiveness and efficiency, with the learned skill curator generalizing across different executor backbones and task domains. Further analyses show that the learned curator produces more targeted skill use, while the skills in SkillRepo evolve into more richly structured Markdown files that encode higher-level meta-skills over time.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are rare but destructive hazards in high mountain regions, yet predictive research is hindered by fragmented and unimodal data. Most prior efforts emphasize post-event mapping, whereas forecasting requires harmonized datasets that combine visual indicators with physical precursors. We present GLOFNet, a multimodal dataset for GLOF monitoring and prediction, focused on the Shisper Glacier in the Karakoram. It integrates three complementary sources: Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery for spatial monitoring, NASA ITS_LIVE velocity products for glacier kinematics, and MODIS Land Surface Temperature records spanning over two decades. Preprocessing included cloud masking, quality filtering, normalization, temporal interpolation, augmentation, and cyclical encoding, followed by harmonization across modalities. Exploratory analysis reveals seasonal glacier velocity cycles, long-term warming of ~0.8 K per decade, and spatial heterogeneity in cryospheric conditions. The resulting dataset, GLOFNet, is publicly available to support future research in glacial hazard prediction. By addressing challenges such as class imbalance, cloud contamination, and coarse resolution, GLOFNet provides a structured foundation for benchmarking multimodal deep learning approaches to rare hazard prediction.

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as a replacement of the primary outcome i.e., in using the surrogate outcome, which can potentially be observed sooner, to make inference about the treatment effect on the long-term primary outcome. Very few of the available statistical methods to evaluate a surrogate are applicable to settings where both the surrogate and the primary outcome are time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. Methods that can handle this setting tend to require parametric assumptions or be limited to assessing only the restricted mean survival time. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approach to evaluate a censored surrogate outcome, such as time to progression, when the primary outcome is also a censored time-to-event outcome, such as time to death, and the treatment effect of interest is the difference in overall survival. Specifically, we define the proportion of the treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained (PTE) by the censored surrogate outcome in this context, and estimate this proportion by defining and deriving an optimal transformation of the surrogate information. Our approach provides the added advantage of relaxed assumptions to guarantee that the true PTE is within (0,1), along with being model-free. Finite sample performance of our estimators are illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a real data application examining progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

With the widespread deployment of Computer-using Agents (CUAs) in complex real-world environments, prevalent long-term risks often lead to severe and irreversible consequences. Most existing guardrails for CUAs adopt a reactive approach, constraining agent behavior only within the current observation space. While these guardrails can prevent immediate short-term risks (e.g., clicking on a phishing link), they cannot proactively avoid long-term risks: seemingly reasonable actions can lead to high-risk consequences that emerge with a delay (e.g., cleaning logs leads to future audits being untraceable), which reactive guardrails cannot identify within the current observation space. To address these limitations, we propose a predictive guardrail approach, with the core idea of aligning predicted future risks with current decisions. Based on this approach, we present SafePred, a predictive guardrail framework for CUAs that establishes a risk-to-decision loop to ensure safe agent behavior. SafePred supports two key abilities: (1) Short- and long-term risk prediction: by using safety policies as the basis for risk prediction, SafePred leverages the prediction capability of the world model to generate semantic representations of both short-term and long-term risks, thereby identifying and pruning actions that lead to high-risk states; (2) Decision optimization: translating predicted risks into actionable safe decision guidances through step-level interventions and task-level re-planning. Extensive experiments show that SafePred significantly reduces high-risk behaviors, achieving over 97.6% safety performance and improving task utility by up to 21.4% compared with reactive baselines.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a cornerstone of sequence modeling across various scientific and industrial applications. Owing to their versatility, numerous RNN variants have been proposed over the past decade, aiming to improve the modeling of long-term dependencies and to address challenges such as vanishing and exploding gradients. However, no central library is available to test these variations, and reimplementing diverse architectures can be time-consuming and error-prone, limiting reproducibility and exploration. Here, we introduce three open-source libraries in Julia and Python that centralize numerous recurrent cell implementations and higher-level recurrent architectures. torchrecurrent, RecurrentLayers.jl, and LuxRecurrentLayers.jl offer a consistent framework for constructing and extending RNN models, providing built-in mechanisms for customization and experimentation. All packages are available under the MIT license and actively maintained on GitHub.

Mobile edge computing (MEC) is essential for next-generation mobile network applications that prioritize various performance metrics, including delays and energy efficiency. However, conventional single-objective scheduling solutions cannot be directly applied to practical systems in which the preferences (i.e., the weights of different objectives) are often unknown or challenging to specify in advance. In this study, we formulate a multi-objective offloading problem for MEC with multiple edges to minimize the sum of expected long-term energy consumption and delay while considering unknown preferences. To address the challenge of unknown preferences and the potentially diverse MEC systems, we propose a generalizable multi-objective (deep) reinforcement learning (GMORL)-based tasks offloading framework, which employs the Discrete Soft Actor-Critic (Discrete-SAC) method. Our method uses a single policy model to efficiently schedule tasks based on varying preferences and adapt to heterogeneous MEC systems with different CPU frequencies and server quantities. Under the proposed framework, we introduce a histogram-based state encoding method for constructing features for multiple edges in MEC systems, a sophisticated reward function for accurately computing the utilities of delay and energy consumption, and a novel neural network architecture for improving generalization. Simulation results demonstrate that our proposed GMORL scheme enhances the hypervolume of the Pareto front by up to 121.0% compared to benchmarks. Our code are avavilable at https://github.com/gracefulning/Generalizable-Pareto-Optimal-Offloading-with-Reinforcement-Learning-in-Mobile-Edge-Computing

This paper introduces SC2LE (StarCraft II Learning Environment), a reinforcement learning environment based on the StarCraft II game. This domain poses a new grand challenge for reinforcement learning, representing a more difficult class of problems than considered in most prior work. It is a multi-agent problem with multiple players interacting; there is imperfect information due to a partially observed map; it has a large action space involving the selection and control of hundreds of units; it has a large state space that must be observed solely from raw input feature planes; and it has delayed credit assignment requiring long-term strategies over thousands of steps. We describe the observation, action, and reward specification for the StarCraft II domain and provide an open source Python-based interface for communicating with the game engine. In addition to the main game maps, we provide a suite of mini-games focusing on different elements of StarCraft II gameplay. For the main game maps, we also provide an accompanying dataset of game replay data from human expert players. We give initial baseline results for neural networks trained from this data to predict game outcomes and player actions. Finally, we present initial baseline results for canonical deep reinforcement learning agents applied to the StarCraft II domain. On the mini-games, these agents learn to achieve a level of play that is comparable to a novice player. However, when trained on the main game, these agents are unable to make significant progress. Thus, SC2LE offers a new and challenging environment for exploring deep reinforcement learning algorithms and architectures.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been leveraged for asset pricing tasks and stock trading applications, enabling AI agents to generate investment decisions from unstructured financial data. However, most evaluations of LLM timing-based investing strategies are conducted on narrow timeframes and limited stock universes, overstating effectiveness due to survivorship and data-snooping biases. We critically assess their generalizability and robustness by proposing FINSABER, a backtesting framework evaluating timing-based strategies across longer periods and a larger universe of symbols. Systematic backtests over two decades and 100+ symbols reveal that previously reported LLM advantages deteriorate significantly under broader cross-section and over a longer-term evaluation. Our market regime analysis further demonstrates that LLM strategies are overly conservative in bull markets, underperforming passive benchmarks, and overly aggressive in bear markets, incurring heavy losses. These findings highlight the need to develop LLM strategies that are able to prioritise trend detection and regime-aware risk controls over mere scaling of framework complexity.

Multi-stage ranking pipelines have been a practical solution in modern search systems, where the first-stage retrieval is to return a subset of candidate documents, and latter stages attempt to re-rank those candidates. Unlike re-ranking stages going through quick technique shifts during past decades, the first-stage retrieval has long been dominated by classical term-based models. Unfortunately, these models suffer from the vocabulary mismatch problem, which may block re-ranking stages from relevant documents at the very beginning. Therefore, it has been a long-term desire to build semantic models for the first-stage retrieval that can achieve high recall efficiently. Recently, we have witnessed an explosive growth of research interests on the first-stage semantic retrieval models. We believe it is the right time to survey current status, learn from existing methods, and gain some insights for future development. In this paper, we describe the current landscape of the first-stage retrieval models under a unified framework to clarify the connection between classical term-based retrieval methods, early semantic retrieval methods and neural semantic retrieval methods. Moreover, we identify some open challenges and envision some future directions, with the hope of inspiring more researches on these important yet less investigated topics.

Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers, {n^{-frac1p}}sum_{k=1}^{n} (d_{k}- d)rightarrow 0 almost surely with pin(1,2), are developed for products d_k=prod_{r=1}^s x_k^{(r)}, where the x_k^{(r)} = sum_{l=-infty}^{infty}c_{k-l}^{(r)}xi_l^{(r)} are two-sided linear processes with coefficients {c_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z} and i.i.d. zero-mean innovations {xi_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z}. The decay of the coefficients c_l^{(r)} as |l|toinfty, can be slow enough for {x_k^{(r)}} to have long memory while {d_k} can have heavy tails. The long-range dependence and heavy tails for {d_k} are handled simultaneously and a decoupling property shows the convergence rate is dictated by the worst of long-range dependence and heavy tails, but not their combination. The Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers is also extended to the multivariate linear process case.

Real-world data analysis is inherently iterative, yet existing benchmarks mostly evaluate isolated or short interactive tasks, leaving agents' ability to track evolving analytical context over long horizons untested. We introduce LongDS, a benchmark for long-horizon, multi-turn data analysis where agents must maintain, update, restore, and compose evolving analytical states. LongDS comprises 68 tasks constructed from real-world Kaggle notebooks, spanning 2,225 turns across six domains including Geoscience, Business, and Education. Tasks are designed around state-evolution patterns (e.g., counterfactual perturbation, rollback, multi-state composition), with an average dependency span of 11.3 turns. Evaluating five state-of-the-art models, we find that the best model reaches only 48.45% average accuracy, performance drops nearly 47 points from early to late turns, and long-horizon errors account for 52%--69% of failures. Further analysis shows that additional agent steps do not necessarily improve performance, suggesting that the key bottleneck is maintaining a correct analytical state rather than increasing interaction budget. We release LongDS to support research on reliable long-horizon agentic data analysis. Code and data will be released at https://github.com/zjunlp/DataMind.

Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion enables variable-length synthesis, but long-horizon generation often suffers from accumulated errors and identity drift. For efficiency, existing methods commonly adopt sliding-window attention during generation. This creates an irreversible generation trajectory: once the active window accumulates appearance errors, subsequent generations can only condition on this degraded trajectory and drift further away. We address this limitation by formulating long video generation as a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) problem. Rather than relying solely on the recent window, we treat previously generated latents as a dynamic, searchable history. We propose LongLive-RAG, a general retrieval framework for AR video generation. At each new block, LongLive-RAG uses a query embedding to retrieve relevant historical latents. This lightweight retrieval step adds only a small overhead relative to generation and lets the generator condition on non-local context instead of only the recent window. To make retrieval more discriminative, we introduce the Window Temporal Delta Loss that suppresses redundant local similarity and encourages embeddings to capture meaningful temporal changes. Together, these components help reduce error accumulation caused by sliding-window attention. Experiments across multiple AR backbones and generation lengths show improved long-video quality and the best average VBench-Long rank. To our knowledge, among open-ended AR long video generation methods, LongLive-RAG is the first to formulate self-generated latent history as content-addressable retrieval memory. Code is available at https://github.com/qixinhu11/LongLive-RAG.

Long-term forecasting presents unique challenges due to the time and memory complexity of handling long sequences. Existing methods, which rely on sliding windows to process long sequences, struggle to effectively capture long-term variations that are partially caught within the short window (i.e., outer-window variations). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that overcomes this limitation by employing contrastive learning and enhanced decomposition architecture, specifically designed to focus on long-term variations. To this end, our contrastive loss incorporates global autocorrelation held in the whole time series, which facilitates the construction of positive and negative pairs in a self-supervised manner. When combined with our decomposition networks, our contrastive learning significantly improves long-term forecasting performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms 14 baseline models in multiple experiments over nine long-term benchmarks, especially in challenging scenarios that require a significantly long output for forecasting. Source code is available at https://github.com/junwoopark92/Self-Supervised-Contrastive-Forecsating.

With the explosive growth of data, long-sequence modeling has become increasingly important in tasks such as natural language processing and bioinformatics. However, existing methods face inherent trade-offs between efficiency and memory. Recurrent neural networks suffer from gradient vanishing and explosion, making them hard to scale. Transformers can model global dependencies but are constrained by quadratic complexity. Recently, selective state-space models such as Mamba have demonstrated high efficiency with O(n) time and O(1) recurrent inference, yet their long-range memory decays exponentially. In this work, we conduct mathematical derivations and information-theoretic analysis to systematically uncover the memory decay mechanism of Mamba, answering a fundamental question: what is the nature of Mamba's long-range memory and how does it retain information? To quantify key information loss, we further introduce horizontal-vertical memory fidelity metrics that capture degradation both within and across layers. Inspired by how humans distill and retain salient information when reading long documents, we propose MemMamba, a novel architectural framework that integrates state summarization mechanism together with cross-layer and cross-token attention, which alleviates long-range forgetting while preserving linear complexity. MemMamba achieves significant improvements over existing Mamba variants and Transformers on long-sequence benchmarks such as PG19 and Passkey Retrieval, while delivering a 48% speedup in inference efficiency. Both theoretical analysis and empirical results demonstrate that MemMamba achieves a breakthrough in the complexity-memory trade-off, offering a new paradigm for ultra-long sequence modeling.

We propose and test the LLM Brain Rot Hypothesis: continual exposure to junk web text induces lasting cognitive decline in large language models (LLMs). To causally isolate data quality, we run controlled experiments on real Twitter/X corpora, constructing junk and reversely controlled datasets via two orthogonal operationalizations: M1 (engagement degree) and M2 (semantic quality), with matched token scale and training operations across conditions. Contrary to the control group, continual pre-training of 4 LLMs on the junk dataset causes non-trivial declines (Hedges' g>0.3) on reasoning, long-context understanding, safety, and inflating "dark traits" (e.g., psychopathy, narcissism). The gradual mixtures of junk and control datasets also yield dose-response cognition decay: for example, under M1, ARC-Challenge with Chain Of Thoughts drops 74.9 rightarrow 57.2 and RULER-CWE 84.4 rightarrow 52.3 as junk ratio rises from 0% to 100%. Error forensics reveal several key insights. First, we identify thought-skipping as the primary lesion: models increasingly truncate or skip reasoning chains, explaining most of the error growth. Second, partial but incomplete healing is observed: scaling instruction tuning and clean data pre-training improve the declined cognition yet cannot restore baseline capability, suggesting persistent representational drift rather than format mismatch. Finally, we discover that the popularity, a non-semantic metric, of a tweet is a better indicator of the Brain Rot effect than the length in M1. Together, the results provide significant, multi-perspective evidence that data quality is a causal driver of LLM capability decay, reframing curation for continual pretraining as a training-time safety problem and motivating routine "cognitive health checks" for deployed LLMs.

Analyzing outcomes in long-term cancer survivor studies can be complex. The effects of predictors on the failure process may be difficult to assess over longer periods of time, as the commonly used assumption of proportionality of hazards holding over an extended period is often questionable. In this manuscript, we compare seven different survival models that estimate the hazard rate and the effects of proportional and non-proportional covariates. In particular, we focus on an extension of the the multi-resolution hazard (MRH) estimator, combining a non-proportional hierarchical MRH approach with a data-driven pruning algorithm that allows for computational efficiency and produces robust estimates even in times of few observed failures. Using data from a large-scale randomized prostate cancer clinical trial, we examine patterns of biochemical failure and estimate the time-varying effects of androgen deprivation therapy treatment and other covariates. We compare the impact of different modeling strategies and smoothness assumptions on the estimated treatment effect. Our results show that the benefits of treatment diminish over time, possibly with implications for future treatment protocols.

Weight decay is a broadly used technique for training state-of-the-art deep networks from image classification to large language models. Despite its widespread usage and being extensively studied in the classical literature, its role remains poorly understood for deep learning. In this work, we highlight that the role of weight decay in modern deep learning is different from its regularization effect studied in classical learning theory. For deep networks on vision tasks trained with multipass SGD, we show how weight decay modifies the optimization dynamics enhancing the ever-present implicit regularization of SGD via the loss stabilization mechanism. In contrast, for large language models trained with nearly one-epoch training, we describe how weight decay balances the bias-variance tradeoff in stochastic optimization leading to lower training loss and improved training stability. Overall, we present a unifying perspective from ResNets on vision tasks to LLMs: weight decay is never useful as an explicit regularizer but instead changes the training dynamics in a desirable way. The code is available at https://github.com/tml-epfl/why-weight-decay

Long-horizon conversational agents require persistent memory for coherent reasoning, yet uncontrolled accumulation causes temporal decay and false memory propagation. Benchmarks such as LOCOMO and LOCCO report performance degradation from 0.455 to 0.05 across stages, while MultiWOZ shows 78.2% accuracy with 6.8% false memory rate under persistent retention. This work introduces an adaptive budgeted forgetting framework that regulates memory through relevanceguided scoring and bounded optimization. The approach integrates recency, frequency, and semantic alignment to maintain stability under constrained context. Comparative analysis demonstrates improved long-horizon F1 beyond 0.583 baseline levels, higher retention consistency, and reduced false memory behavior without increasing context usage. These findings confirm that structured forgetting preserves reasoning performance while preventing unbounded memory growth in extended conversational settings.

In many application domains (e.g., recommender systems, intelligent tutoring systems), the rewards associated to the actions tend to decrease over time. This decay is either caused by the actions executed in the past (e.g., a user may get bored when songs of the same genre are recommended over and over) or by an external factor (e.g., content becomes outdated). These two situations can be modeled as specific instances of the rested and restless bandit settings, where arms are rotting (i.e., their value decrease over time). These problems were thought to be significantly different, since Levine et al. (2017) showed that state-of-the-art algorithms for restless bandit perform poorly in the rested rotting setting. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm, Rotting Adaptive Window UCB (RAW-UCB), that achieves near-optimal regret in both rotting rested and restless bandit, without any prior knowledge of the setting (rested or restless) and the type of non-stationarity (e.g., piece-wise constant, bounded variation). This is in striking contrast with previous negative results showing that no algorithm can achieve similar results as soon as rewards are allowed to increase. We confirm our theoretical findings on a number of synthetic and dataset-based experiments.

Breakthroughs in deep learning and memory networks have made major advances in natural language understanding. Language is sequential and information carried through the sequence can be captured through memory networks. Learning the sequence is one of the key aspects in learning the language. However, memory networks are not capable of holding infinitely long sequences in their memories and are limited by various constraints such as the vanishing or exploding gradient problem. Therefore, natural language understanding models are affected when presented with long sequential text. We introduce Long Term Memory network (LTM) to learn from infinitely long sequences. LTM gives priority to the current inputs to allow it to have a high impact. Language modeling is an important factor in natural language understanding. LTM was tested in language modeling, which requires long term memory. LTM is tested on Penn Tree bank dataset, Google Billion Word dataset and WikiText-2 dataset. We compare LTM with other language models which require long term memory.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Long-term point tracking is essential to understand non-rigid motion in the physical world better. Deep learning approaches have recently been incorporated into long-term point tracking, but most prior work predominantly functions in 2D. Although these methods benefit from the well-established backbones and matching frameworks, the motions they produce do not always make sense in the 3D physical world. In this paper, we propose the first deep learning framework for long-term point tracking in 3D that generalizes to new points and videos without requiring test-time fine-tuning. Our model contains a cost volume fusion module that effectively integrates multiple past appearances and motion information via a transformer architecture, significantly enhancing overall tracking performance. In terms of 3D tracking performance, our model significantly outperforms simple scene flow chaining and previous 2D point tracking methods, even if one uses ground truth depth and camera pose to backproject 2D point tracks in a synthetic scenario.

Conversational assistants are increasingly integrating long-term memory with large language models (LLMs). This persistence of memories, e.g., the user is vegetarian, can enhance personalization in future conversations. However, the same persistence can also introduce safety risks that have been largely overlooked. Hence, we introduce PersistBench to measure the extent of these safety risks. We identify two long-term memory-specific risks: cross-domain leakage, where LLMs inappropriately inject context from the long-term memories; and memory-induced sycophancy, where stored long-term memories insidiously reinforce user biases. We evaluate 18 frontier and open-source LLMs on our benchmark. Our results reveal a surprisingly high failure rate across these LLMs - a median failure rate of 53% on cross-domain samples and 97% on sycophancy samples. To address this, our benchmark encourages the development of more robust and safer long-term memory usage in frontier conversational systems.

We present LongLive, a frame-level autoregressive (AR) framework for real-time and interactive long video generation. Long video generation presents challenges in both efficiency and quality. Diffusion and Diffusion-Forcing models can produce high-quality videos but suffer from low efficiency due to bidirectional attention. Causal attention AR models support KV caching for faster inference, but often degrade in quality on long videos due to memory challenges during long-video training. In addition, beyond static prompt-based generation, interactive capabilities, such as streaming prompt inputs, are critical for dynamic content creation, enabling users to guide narratives in real time. This interactive requirement significantly increases complexity, especially in ensuring visual consistency and semantic coherence during prompt transitions. To address these challenges, LongLive adopts a causal, frame-level AR design that integrates a KV-recache mechanism that refreshes cached states with new prompts for smooth, adherent switches; streaming long tuning to enable long video training and to align training and inference (train-long-test-long); and short window attention paired with a frame-level attention sink, shorten as frame sink, preserving long-range consistency while enabling faster generation. With these key designs, LongLive fine-tunes a 1.3B-parameter short-clip model to minute-long generation in just 32 GPU-days. At inference, LongLive sustains 20.7 FPS on a single NVIDIA H100, achieves strong performance on VBench in both short and long videos. LongLive supports up to 240-second videos on a single H100 GPU. LongLive further supports INT8-quantized inference with only marginal quality loss.

In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity data (e.g. minutes, seconds, milliseconds), prevalent in operational use-cases. Traditional models, such as auto-regression fitted with least squares (Classic-AR) can model time-series with a concise and interpretable model. When dealing with long-range dependencies, Classic-AR models can become intractably slow to fit for large data. Recently, sequence-to-sequence models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks, which were originally intended for natural language processing, have become popular for time-series. However, they can be overly complex for typical time-series data and lack interpretability. A scalable and interpretable model is needed to bridge the statistical and deep learning-based approaches. As a first step towards this goal, we propose modelling AR-process dynamics using a feed-forward neural network approach, termed AR-Net. We show that AR-Net is as interpretable as Classic-AR but also scales to long-range dependencies. Our results lead to three major conclusions: First, AR-Net learns identical AR-coefficients as Classic-AR, thus being equally interpretable. Second, the computational complexity with respect to the order of the AR process, is linear for AR-Net as compared to a quadratic for Classic-AR. This makes it possible to model long-range dependencies within fine granularity data. Third, by introducing regularization, AR-Net automatically selects and learns sparse AR-coefficients. This eliminates the need to know the exact order of the AR-process and allows to learn sparse weights for a model with long-range dependencies.

Long-term memory is fundamental for personalized agents capable of accumulating knowledge, reasoning over user experiences, and adapting across time. However, existing memory benchmarks primarily target declarative memory, specifically semantic and episodic types, where all information is explicitly presented in dialogues. In contrast, real-world actions are also governed by non-declarative memory, including habitual and procedural types, and need to be inferred from diverse digital traces. To bridge this gap, we introduce Lifebench, which features densely connected, long-horizon event simulation. It pushes AI agents beyond simple recall, requiring the integration of declarative and non-declarative memory reasoning across diverse and temporally extended contexts. Building such a benchmark presents two key challenges: ensuring data quality and scalability. We maintain data quality by employing real-world priors, including anonymized social surveys, map APIs, and holiday-integrated calendars, thus enforcing fidelity, diversity and behavioral rationality within the dataset. Towards scalability, we draw inspiration from cognitive science and structure events according to their partonomic hierarchy; enabling efficient parallel generation while maintaining global coherence. Performance results show that top-tier, state-of-the-art memory systems reach just 55.2\% accuracy, highlighting the inherent difficulty of long-horizon retrieval and multi-source integration within our proposed benchmark. The dataset and data synthesis code are available at https://github.com/1754955896/LifeBench.

Tuning-free long video diffusion has been proposed to generate extended-duration videos with enriched content by reusing the knowledge from pre-trained short video diffusion model without retraining. However, most works overlook the fine-grained long-term video consistency modeling, resulting in limited scene consistency (i.e., unreasonable object or background transitions), especially with multiple text inputs. To mitigate this, we propose the Consistency Noise Injection, dubbed CoNo, which introduces the "look-back" mechanism to enhance the fine-grained scene transition between different video clips, and designs the long-term consistency regularization to eliminate the content shifts when extending video contents through noise prediction. In particular, the "look-back" mechanism breaks the noise scheduling process into three essential parts, where one internal noise prediction part is injected into two video-extending parts, intending to achieve a fine-grained transition between two video clips. The long-term consistency regularization focuses on explicitly minimizing the pixel-wise distance between the predicted noises of the extended video clip and the original one, thereby preventing abrupt scene transitions. Extensive experiments have shown the effectiveness of the above strategies by performing long-video generation under both single- and multi-text prompt conditions. The project has been available in https://wxrui182.github.io/CoNo.github.io/.

Long-context autoregressive modeling has significantly advanced language generation, but video generation still struggles to fully utilize extended temporal contexts. To investigate long-context video modeling, we introduce Frame AutoRegressive (FAR), a strong baseline for video autoregressive modeling. Just as language models learn causal dependencies between tokens (i.e., Token AR), FAR models temporal causal dependencies between continuous frames, achieving better convergence than Token AR and video diffusion transformers. Building on FAR, we observe that long-context vision modeling faces challenges due to visual redundancy. Existing RoPE lacks effective temporal decay for remote context and fails to extrapolate well to long video sequences. Additionally, training on long videos is computationally expensive, as vision tokens grow much faster than language tokens. To tackle these issues, we propose balancing locality and long-range dependency. We introduce FlexRoPE, an test-time technique that adds flexible temporal decay to RoPE, enabling extrapolation to 16x longer vision contexts. Furthermore, we propose long short-term context modeling, where a high-resolution short-term context window ensures fine-grained temporal consistency, while an unlimited long-term context window encodes long-range information using fewer tokens. With this approach, we can train on long video sequences with a manageable token context length. We demonstrate that FAR achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-video generation, providing a simple yet effective baseline for video autoregressive modeling.

Long-term memory is a critical capability for multimodal large language model (MLLM) agents, particularly in conversational settings where information accumulates and evolves over time. However, existing benchmarks either evaluate multi-session memory in text-only conversations or assess multimodal understanding within localized contexts, failing to evaluate how multimodal memory is preserved, organized, and evolved across long-term conversational trajectories. Thus, we introduce Mem-Gallery, a new benchmark for evaluating multimodal long-term conversational memory in MLLM agents. Mem-Gallery features high-quality multi-session conversations grounded in both visual and textual information, with long interaction horizons and rich multimodal dependencies. Building on this dataset, we propose a systematic evaluation framework that assesses key memory capabilities along three functional dimensions: memory extraction and test-time adaptation, memory reasoning, and memory knowledge management. Extensive benchmarking across thirteen memory systems reveals several key findings, highlighting the necessity of explicit multimodal information retention and memory organization, the persistent limitations in memory reasoning and knowledge management, as well as the efficiency bottleneck of current models.

Long-context large language models (LC LLMs) promise to increase reliability of LLMs in real-world tasks requiring processing and understanding of long input documents. However, this ability of LC LLMs to reliably utilize their growing context windows remains under investigation. In this work, we evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art GPT-4 suite of LC LLMs in solving a series of progressively challenging tasks, as a function of factors such as context length, task difficulty, and position of key information by creating a real world financial news dataset. Our findings indicate that LC LLMs exhibit brittleness at longer context lengths even for simple tasks, with performance deteriorating sharply as task complexity increases. At longer context lengths, these state-of-the-art models experience catastrophic failures in instruction following resulting in degenerate outputs. Our prompt ablations also reveal unfortunate continued sensitivity to both the placement of the task instruction in the context window as well as minor markdown formatting. Finally, we advocate for more rigorous evaluation of LC LLMs by employing holistic metrics such as F1 (rather than recall) and reporting confidence intervals, thereby ensuring robust and conclusive findings.

With the development of large language models (LLMs), there has been an increasing need for significant advancements in handling long contexts. To enhance long-context capabilities, constructing high-quality training data with long-range dependencies is crucial. Existing methods to select long-context data often rely on sentence-level analysis, which can be greatly optimized in both performance and efficiency. In this paper, we propose a novel token-level framework, LongAttn, which leverages the self-attention mechanism of LLMs to measure the long-range dependencies for the data. By calculating token-level dependency strength and distribution uniformity of token scores, LongAttn effectively quantifies long-range dependencies, enabling more accurate and efficient data selection. We filter LongABC-32K from open-source long-context datasets (ArXiv, Book, and Code). Through our comprehensive experiments, LongAttn has demonstrated its excellent effectiveness, scalability, and efficiency. To facilitate future research in long-context data, we released our code and the high-quality long-context training data LongABC-32K.

Models based on deep convolutional networks have dominated recent image interpretation tasks; we investigate whether models which are also recurrent, or "temporally deep", are effective for tasks involving sequences, visual and otherwise. We develop a novel recurrent convolutional architecture suitable for large-scale visual learning which is end-to-end trainable, and demonstrate the value of these models on benchmark video recognition tasks, image description and retrieval problems, and video narration challenges. In contrast to current models which assume a fixed spatio-temporal receptive field or simple temporal averaging for sequential processing, recurrent convolutional models are "doubly deep"' in that they can be compositional in spatial and temporal "layers". Such models may have advantages when target concepts are complex and/or training data are limited. Learning long-term dependencies is possible when nonlinearities are incorporated into the network state updates. Long-term RNN models are appealing in that they directly can map variable-length inputs (e.g., video frames) to variable length outputs (e.g., natural language text) and can model complex temporal dynamics; yet they can be optimized with backpropagation. Our recurrent long-term models are directly connected to modern visual convnet models and can be jointly trained to simultaneously learn temporal dynamics and convolutional perceptual representations. Our results show such models have distinct advantages over state-of-the-art models for recognition or generation which are separately defined and/or optimized.

Long chain-of-thought (CoT) supervision has become a common strategy to enhance reasoning in language models. While effective for large models, we identify a phenomenon we call Long CoT Degradation, in which small language models (SLMs; <=3B parameters) trained on limited long CoT data experience significant performance deterioration. Through extensive experiments on the Qwen2.5, LLaMA3 and Gemma3 families, we demonstrate that this degradation is widespread across SLMs. In some settings, models trained on only 8k long CoT examples lose up to 75% of their original performance before fine-tuning. Strikingly, we further observe that for some particularly small models, even training on 220k long CoT examples fails to recover or surpass their original performance prior to fine-tuning. Our analysis attributes this effect to error accumulation: while longer responses increase the capacity for multi-step reasoning, they also amplify the risk of compounding mistakes. Furthermore, we find that Long CoT Degradation may negatively impacts downstream reinforcement learning (RL), although this can be alleviated by sufficiently scaled supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Our findings challenge common assumptions about the benefits of long CoT training for SLMs and offer practical guidance for building more effective small-scale reasoning models.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

Long-lived AI agents are increasingly deployed as persistent operational systems, yet they are still evaluated like freshly initialized models. Day-one benchmarks miss a basic systems question: how long does an agent remain reliable after deployment? Even when model weights are frozen, an agent's effective state keeps changing as it compresses interaction history, retrieves from a growing memory store, revises facts after updates, and undergoes routine maintenance. Reliability therefore becomes a lifespan property of the full agent harness, not only a snapshot property of the base model. We introduce AgingBench, a longitudinal reliability benchmark for agent lifespan engineering: measuring not only whether deployed agents degrade, but what form the degradation takes and where repair should target. AgingBench organizes agent aging into four mechanisms: compression aging, interference aging, revision aging, and maintenance aging. To diagnose these failures, AgingBench uses temporal dependency graphs and paired counterfactual probes that produce diagnostic profiles for the write, retrieval, and utilization stages of the memory pipeline. Across 7 scenarios, 14 models, multiple memory policies, and both runner-controlled and autonomous agents, over ~400 runs spanning 8 - 200 sessions show that agent aging is not one-dimensional: behavioral tests can remain clean while factual precision decays; derived-state tracking can collapse sharply within a single model; and the same wrong answer can require different repairs depending on what the diagnostic profile points to. These results suggest that reliable agent deployment requires lifespan evaluation, mechanism-level diagnosis, and stage-targeted repair, not only stronger day-one models.

Long-context modeling capabilities are important for large language models (LLMs) in various applications. However, directly training LLMs with long context windows is insufficient to enhance this capability since some training samples do not exhibit strong semantic dependencies across long contexts. In this study, we propose a data mining framework ProLong that can assign each training sample with a long dependency score, which can be used to rank and filter samples that are more advantageous for enhancing long-context modeling abilities in LLM training. Specifically, we first use delta perplexity scores to measure the Dependency Strength between text segments in a given document. Then we refine this metric based on the Dependency Distance of these segments to incorporate spatial relationships across long-contexts. Final results are calibrated with a Dependency Specificity metric to prevent trivial dependencies introduced by repetitive patterns. Moreover, a random sampling approach is proposed to optimize the computational efficiency of ProLong. Comprehensive experiments on multiple benchmarks indicate that ProLong effectively identifies documents that carry long dependencies and LLMs trained on these documents exhibit significantly enhanced long-context modeling capabilities.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) generate text through iterative denoising, yet current decoding strategies discard rich intermediate predictions in favor of the final output. Our work here reveals a critical phenomenon, temporal oscillation, where correct answers often emerge in the middle process, but are overwritten in later denoising steps. To address this issue, we introduce two complementary methods that exploit temporal consistency: 1) Temporal Self-Consistency Voting, a training-free, test-time decoding strategy that aggregates predictions across denoising steps to select the most consistent output; and 2) a post-training method termed Temporal Consistency Reinforcement, which uses Temporal Semantic Entropy (TSE), a measure of semantic stability across intermediate predictions, as a reward signal to encourage stable generations. Empirical results across multiple benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Using the negative TSE reward alone, we observe a remarkable average improvement of 24.7% on the Countdown dataset over an existing dLLM. Combined with the accuracy reward, we achieve absolute gains of 2.0% on GSM8K, 4.3% on MATH500, 6.6% on SVAMP, and 25.3% on Countdown, respectively. Our findings underscore the untapped potential of temporal dynamics in dLLMs and offer two simple yet effective tools to harness them.

Signal decay and regime shifts pose recurring challenges for data-driven investment strategies in non-stationary markets. Conventional time-series and machine learning approaches, which rely primarily on historical correlations, often struggle to generalize when the economic environment changes. While large language models (LLMs) offer strong capabilities for processing unstructured information, their potential to support quantitative factor screening through explicit economic reasoning remains underexplored. Existing factor-based methods typically reduce alphas to numerical time series, overlooking the semantic rationale that determines when a factor is economically relevant. We propose Alpha-R1, an 8B-parameter reasoning model trained via reinforcement learning for context-aware alpha screening. Alpha-R1 reasons over factor logic and real-time news to evaluate alpha relevance under changing market conditions, selectively activating or deactivating factors based on contextual consistency. Empirical results across multiple asset pools show that Alpha-R1 consistently outperforms benchmark strategies and exhibits improved robustness to alpha decay. The full implementation and resources are available at https://github.com/FinStep-AI/Alpha-R1.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of carrying out long-running, real-world tasks. However, as the amount of context grows, their reliability often deteriorates, a phenomenon known as "context rot". Existing long-context benchmarks primarily focus on single-step settings that evaluate a model's ability to retrieve information from a long snippet. In realistic scenarios, however, LLMs often need to act as agents that explore environments, follow instructions and plans, extract useful information, and predict correct actions under a dynamically growing context. To assess language agents in such settings, we introduce LOCA-bench (a benchmark for LOng-Context Agents). Given a task prompt, LOCA-bench leverages automated and scalable control of environment states to regulate the agent's context length. This design enables LOCA-bench to extend the context length potentially to infinity in a controlled way while keeping the underlying task semantics fixed. LOCA-bench evaluates language agents as a combination of models and scaffolds, including various context management strategies. While agent performance generally degrades as the environment states grow more complex, advanced context management techniques can substantially improve the overall success rate. We open-source LOCA-bench to provide a platform for evaluating models and scaffolds in long-context, agentic scenarios: https://github.com/hkust-nlp/LOCA-bench

In this paper, we propose a method to partially mimic natural intelligence for the problem of lifelong learning representations that are compatible. We take the perspective of a learning agent that is interested in recognizing object instances in an open dynamic universe in a way in which any update to its internal feature representation does not render the features in the gallery unusable for visual search. We refer to this learning problem as Compatible Lifelong Learning Representations (CL2R) as it considers compatible representation learning within the lifelong learning paradigm. We identify stationarity as the property that the feature representation is required to hold to achieve compatibility and propose a novel training procedure that encourages local and global stationarity on the learned representation. Due to stationarity, the statistical properties of the learned features do not change over time, making them interoperable with previously learned features. Extensive experiments on standard benchmark datasets show that our CL2R training procedure outperforms alternative baselines and state-of-the-art methods. We also provide novel metrics to specifically evaluate compatible representation learning under catastrophic forgetting in various sequential learning tasks. Code at https://github.com/NiccoBiondi/CompatibleLifelongRepresentation.

Clinical case reports encode temporal patient trajectories that are often underexploited by traditional machine learning methods relying on structured data. In this work, we introduce the forecasting problem from textual time series, where timestamped clinical findings -- extracted via an LLM-assisted annotation pipeline -- serve as the primary input for prediction. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of models, including fine-tuned decoder-based large language models and encoder-based transformers, on tasks of event occurrence prediction, temporal ordering, and survival analysis. Our experiments reveal that encoder-based models consistently achieve higher F1 scores and superior temporal concordance for short- and long-horizon event forecasting, while fine-tuned masking approaches enhance ranking performance. In contrast, instruction-tuned decoder models demonstrate a relative advantage in survival analysis, especially in early prognosis settings. Our sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the importance of time ordering, which requires clinical time series construction, as compared to text ordering, the format of the text inputs that LLMs are classically trained on. This highlights the additional benefit that can be ascertained from time-ordered corpora, with implications for temporal tasks in the era of widespread LLM use.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Long-term memory is crucial for agents in specialized web environments, where success depends on recalling interface affordances, state dynamics, workflows, and recurring failure modes. However, existing memory benchmarks for agents mostly focus on user histories, short traces, or downstream task success, leaving open how to directly evaluate whether memory systems effectively internalize environment-specific experience. To address this gap, we introduce LongMemEval-V2 (LME-V2), a benchmark for evaluating whether memory systems can help agents acquire the experience needed to become knowledgeable colleagues in customized environments. LME-V2 contains 451 manually curated questions covering five core memory abilities for web agents: static state recall, dynamic state tracking, workflow knowledge, environment gotchas, and premise awareness. Questions are paired with history trajectories containing up to 500 trajectories and 115M tokens. We use a context gathering formulation: memory systems consume history trajectories and return compact evidence for downstream question answering. We propose a suite of two memory methods: AgentRunbook-R, an efficient RAG-based memory with knowledge pools for raw state observations, events, and strategy notes, and AgentRunbook-C, which stores trajectories as files and invokes a coding agent to gather evidence in an augmented sandbox. Experiments show that AgentRunbook-C achieves the best performance with 72.5% average accuracy, outperforming the strongest RAG baseline (48.5%) and the off-the-shelf coding agent baseline (69.3%). Despite the strong performance gains, coding agent based methods have high latency costs. While AgentRunbook-C advances the accuracy-latency Pareto frontier, substantial room for improvement remains. Together, these results establish LME-V2 as a challenging testbed for developing long-term memory systems for environment experience.

The stability of recursively trained large language models (LLMs) is a foundational problem for AI safety. Prevailing theory predicts model collapse, a progressive degradation when models are trained on their own output. We challenge this narrative by introducing a selective feedback mechanism. Contrary to expectation, instead of merely slowing decay, our experiments provide strong evidence that this pressure reverses it, inducing a statistically significant performance improvement in a Gemma 2B model on a complex summarization task. We name this phenomenon the Anti-Ouroboros Effect. We contrast this with a foundational experiment using a simple classifier, where the theoretical degenerative loop was validated, highlighting the unique dynamics of high-dimensional models. Our findings establish that systemic resilience can be an emergent property of LLMs under simple selection pressure, suggesting a powerful and scalable principle for developing safer and more robust AI systems. Across five generations, a quality-filtered condition improved by 6.6% in ROUGE-L F1 score, whereas an unfiltered control degraded by 3.5% and a random-filter control degraded by 4.2%

Current long-context benchmarks primarily focus on retrieval-based tests, requiring Large Language Models (LLMs) to locate specific information within extensive input contexts, such as the needle-in-a-haystack (NIAH) benchmark. Long-context generation refers to the ability of a language model to generate coherent and contextually accurate text that spans across lengthy passages or documents. While recent studies show strong performance on NIAH and other retrieval-based long-context benchmarks, there is a significant lack of benchmarks for evaluating long-context generation capabilities. To bridge this gap and offer a comprehensive assessment, we introduce a synthetic benchmark, LongGenBench, which allows for flexible configurations of customized generation context lengths. LongGenBench advances beyond traditional benchmarks by redesigning the format of questions and necessitating that LLMs respond with a single, cohesive long-context answer. Upon extensive evaluation using LongGenBench, we observe that: (1) both API accessed and open source models exhibit performance degradation in long-context generation scenarios, ranging from 1.2% to 47.1%; (2) different series of LLMs exhibit varying trends of performance degradation, with the Gemini-1.5-Flash model showing the least degradation among API accessed models, and the Qwen2 series exhibiting the least degradation in LongGenBench among open source models.

People often optimize for long-term goals in collaboration: A mentor or companion doesn't just answer questions, but also scaffolds learning, tracks progress, and prioritizes the other person's growth over immediate results. In contrast, current AI systems are fundamentally short-sighted collaborators - optimized for providing instant and complete responses, without ever saying no (unless for safety reasons). What are the consequences of this dynamic? Here, through a series of randomized controlled trials on human-AI interactions (N = 1,222), we provide causal evidence for two key consequences of AI assistance: reduced persistence and impairment of unassisted performance. Across a variety of tasks, including mathematical reasoning and reading comprehension, we find that although AI assistance improves performance in the short-term, people perform significantly worse without AI and are more likely to give up. Notably, these effects emerge after only brief interactions with AI (approximately 10 minutes). These findings are particularly concerning because persistence is foundational to skill acquisition and is one of the strongest predictors of long-term learning. We posit that persistence is reduced because AI conditions people to expect immediate answers, thereby denying them the experience of working through challenges on their own. These results suggest the need for AI model development to prioritize scaffolding long-term competence alongside immediate task completion.

Autoregressive video world models predict future visual observations conditioned on actions. While effective over short horizons, these models often struggle with long-horizon generation, as small prediction errors accumulate over time. Prior methods alleviate this by introducing pre-trained teacher models and sequence-level distribution matching, which incur additional computational cost and fail to prevent error propagation beyond the training horizon. In this work, we propose LIVE, a Long-horizon Interactive Video world modEl that enforces bounded error accumulation via a novel cycle-consistency objective, thereby eliminating the need for teacher-based distillation. Specifically, LIVE first performs a forward rollout from ground-truth frames and then applies a reverse generation process to reconstruct the initial state. The diffusion loss is subsequently computed on the reconstructed terminal state, providing an explicit constraint on long-horizon error propagation. Moreover, we provide an unified view that encompasses different approaches and introduce progressive training curriculum to stabilize training. Experiments demonstrate that LIVE achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon benchmarks, generating stable, high-quality videos far beyond training rollout lengths.

Controllable ultra-long video generation is a fundamental yet challenging task. Although existing methods are effective for short clips, they struggle to scale due to issues such as temporal inconsistency and visual degradation. In this paper, we initially investigate and identify three key factors: separate noise initialization, independent control signal normalization, and the limitations of single-modality guidance. To address these issues, we propose LongVie, an end-to-end autoregressive framework for controllable long video generation. LongVie introduces two core designs to ensure temporal consistency: 1) a unified noise initialization strategy that maintains consistent generation across clips, and 2) global control signal normalization that enforces alignment in the control space throughout the entire video. To mitigate visual degradation, LongVie employs 3) a multi-modal control framework that integrates both dense (e.g., depth maps) and sparse (e.g., keypoints) control signals, complemented by 4) a degradation-aware training strategy that adaptively balances modality contributions over time to preserve visual quality. We also introduce LongVGenBench, a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 100 high-resolution videos spanning diverse real-world and synthetic environments, each lasting over one minute. Extensive experiments show that LongVie achieves state-of-the-art performance in long-range controllability, consistency, and quality.

Concepts involved in long-form videos such as people, objects, and their interactions, can be viewed as following an implicit prior. They are notably complex and continue to pose challenges to be comprehensively learned. In recent years, generative pre-training (GPT) has exhibited versatile capacities in modeling any kind of text content even visual locations. Can this manner work for learning long-form video prior? Instead of operating on pixel space, it is efficient to employ visual locations like bounding boxes and keypoints to represent key information in videos, which can be simply discretized and then tokenized for consumption by GPT. Due to the scarcity of suitable data, we create a new dataset called Storyboard20K from movies to serve as a representative. It includes synopses, shot-by-shot keyframes, and fine-grained annotations of film sets and characters with consistent IDs, bounding boxes, and whole body keypoints. In this way, long-form videos can be represented by a set of tokens and be learned via generative pre-training. Experimental results validate that our approach has great potential for learning long-form video prior. Code and data will be released at https://github.com/showlab/Long-form-Video-Prior.

Diffusion models have revolutionized image and video generation, achieving unprecedented visual quality. However, their reliance on transformer architectures incurs prohibitively high computational costs, particularly when extending generation to long videos. Recent work has explored autoregressive formulations for long video generation, typically by distilling from short-horizon bidirectional teachers. Nevertheless, given that teacher models cannot synthesize long videos, the extrapolation of student models beyond their training horizon often leads to pronounced quality degradation, arising from the compounding of errors within the continuous latent space. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach to mitigate quality degradation in long-horizon video generation without requiring supervision from long-video teachers or retraining on long video datasets. Our approach centers on exploiting the rich knowledge of teacher models to provide guidance for the student model through sampled segments drawn from self-generated long videos. Our method maintains temporal consistency while scaling video length by up to 20x beyond teacher's capability, avoiding common issues such as over-exposure and error-accumulation without recomputing overlapping frames like previous methods. When scaling up the computation, our method shows the capability of generating videos up to 4 minutes and 15 seconds, equivalent to 99.9% of the maximum span supported by our base model's position embedding and more than 50x longer than that of our baseline model. Experiments on standard benchmarks and our proposed improved benchmark demonstrate that our approach substantially outperforms baseline methods in both fidelity and consistency. Our long-horizon videos demo can be found at https://self-forcing-plus-plus.github.io/

Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) is critical for numerous real-world applications, such as electricity consumption planning, financial forecasting, and disease propagation analysis. LTSF requires capturing long-range dependencies between inputs and outputs, which poses significant challenges due to complex temporal dynamics and high computational demands. While linear models reduce model complexity by employing frequency domain decomposition, current approaches often assume stationarity and filter out high-frequency components that may contain crucial short-term fluctuations. In this paper, we introduce MMFNet, a novel model designed to enhance long-term multivariate forecasting by leveraging a multi-scale masked frequency decomposition approach. MMFNet captures fine, intermediate, and coarse-grained temporal patterns by converting time series into frequency segments at varying scales while employing a learnable mask to filter out irrelevant components adaptively. Extensive experimentation with benchmark datasets shows that MMFNet not only addresses the limitations of the existing methods but also consistently achieves good performance. Specifically, MMFNet achieves up to 6.0% reductions in the Mean Squared Error (MSE) compared to state-of-the-art models designed for multivariate forecasting tasks.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

We introduce a novel deep learning framework based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to predict galactic cosmic-ray spectra on a one-day-ahead basis by leveraging historical solar activity data, overcoming limitations inherent in traditional transport models. By flexibly incorporating multiple solar parameters, such as the heliospheric magnetic field, solar wind speed, and sunspot numbers, our model achieves accurate short-term and long-term predictions of cosmic-ray flux. The addition of historical cosmic-ray flux data significantly enhances prediction accuracy, allowing the model to capture complex dependencies between past and future flux variations. Additionally, the model reliably predicts full cosmic-ray spectra for different particle species, enhancing its utility for comprehensive space weather forecasting. Our approach offers a scalable, data-driven alternative to traditional physics-based methods, ensuring robust daily and long-term forecasts. This work opens avenues for advanced models that can integrate broader observational data, with significant implications for space weather monitoring and mission planning.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have advanced image and video understanding and can increasingly handle longer visual inputs. Long-horizon tasks such as autonomous driving and robotic navigation require more than recognizing the current view, as models must remember and retrieve previously observed spatial layouts, routes, viewpoint changes, and object states. To evaluate this capability, we introduce LongSpace-Bench, a room-tour video benchmark for long-horizon spatial memory, covering scene perception, spatial relations, and spatial memory. In this work, we further propose LongSpace, a memory framework for long-video spatial reasoning. LongSpace models long videos as sequential chunks, incorporates 3D structural cues into early decoder layers, and constructs layer-aware memory for question-guided retrieval. Experiments on multiple spatial reasoning benchmarks show that LongSpace improves long-video spatial understanding, further demonstrating explicit spatial memory as a key capability for long-horizon video MLLMs.

The study of the long-time dynamics of quantum systems can be a real challenge, especially in systems like ultracold gases, where the required timescales may be longer than the lifetime of the system itself. In this work, we show that it is possible to access the long-time dynamics of a strongly repulsive atomic gas mixture in shorter times. The shortcut-to-dynamics protocol that we propose does not modify the fate of the observables, but effectively jumps ahead in time without changing the system's inherent evolution. Just like the next-chapter button in a movie player that allows to quickly reach the part of the movie one wants to watch, it is a leap into the future.

Long-form generation is crucial for a wide range of practical applications, typically categorized into short-to-long and long-to-long generation. While short-to-long generations have received considerable attention, generating long texts from extremely long resources remains relatively underexplored. The primary challenge in long-to-long generation lies in effectively integrating and analyzing relevant information from extensive inputs, which remains difficult for current large language models (LLMs). In this paper, we propose LLMtimesMapReduce-V2, a novel test-time scaling strategy designed to enhance the ability of LLMs to process extremely long inputs. Drawing inspiration from convolutional neural networks, which iteratively integrate local features into higher-level global representations, LLMtimesMapReduce-V2 utilizes stacked convolutional scaling layers to progressively expand the understanding of input materials. Both quantitative and qualitative experimental results demonstrate that our approach substantially enhances the ability of LLMs to process long inputs and generate coherent, informative long-form articles, outperforming several representative baselines.

We present LongLive-2.0, an NVFP4-based parallel infrastructure throughout the full training and inference workflow of long video generation, addressing speed and memory bottlenecks. For training, we introduce sequence-parallel autoregressive (AR) training, instantiated as Balanced SP, which co-designs the efficient teacher-forcing layout with SP execution by pairing clean-history and noisy-target temporal chunks on each rank, enabling a natural teacher-forcing mask with SP-aware chunked VAE encoding. Combined with NVFP4 precision, it reduces GPU memory cost and accelerates GEMM computation during training, the proportion of which increases as video length grows. Moreover, we show that a high-quality infrastructure and dataset enable a remarkably clean training pipeline. Unlike existing Self-Forcing series methods that rely on ODE initialization and subsequent distribution matching distillation (DMD), LongLive-2.0 directly tunes a diffusion model into a long, multi-shot, interactive auto-regressive (AR) diffusion model. It can be further converted to real-time generation (4 to 2 denoising steps) with standalone LoRA weights. For inference on Blackwell GPUs, we enable W4A4 NVFP4 inference, quantize KV cache into NVFP4 for memory savings, and boost end-to-end throughput with asynchronous streaming VAE decoding. On non-Blackwell GPU architectures, we deploy SP inference to match the speed on Blackwell GPUs, while the quantized KV cache can lower inter-GPU communication of SP. Experiments show up to 2.15x speedup in training, and 1.84x in inference. LongLive-2.0-5B achieves 45.7 FPS inference while attaining strong performance on benchmarks. To our knowledge, LongLive-2.0 is the first NVFP4 training and inference system for long video generation.

The performance of speaker verification systems is adversely affected by speaker aging. However, due to challenges in data collection, particularly the lack of sustained and large-scale longitudinal data for individuals, research on speaker aging remains difficult. In this paper, we present VoxAging, a large-scale longitudinal dataset collected from 293 speakers (226 English speakers and 67 Mandarin speakers) over several years, with the longest time span reaching 17 years (approximately 900 weeks). For each speaker, the data were recorded at weekly intervals. We studied the phenomenon of speaker aging and its effects on advanced speaker verification systems, analyzed individual speaker aging processes, and explored the impact of factors such as age group and gender on speaker aging research.

Forecasting time series data is a critical area of research with applications spanning from stock prices to early epidemic prediction. While numerous statistical and machine learning methods have been proposed, real-life prediction problems often require hybrid solutions that bridge classical forecasting approaches and modern neural network models. In this study, we introduce the Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks (PARNN), capable of handling complex time series data exhibiting non-stationarity, nonlinearity, non-seasonality, long-range dependence, and chaotic patterns. PARNN is constructed by improving autoregressive neural networks (ARNN) using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) feedback error, combining the explainability, scalability, and "white-box-like" prediction behavior of both models. Notably, the PARNN model provides uncertainty quantification through prediction intervals, setting it apart from advanced deep learning tools. Through comprehensive computational experiments, we evaluate the performance of PARNN against standard statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, including Transformers, NBeats, and DeepAR. Diverse real-world datasets from macroeconomics, tourism, epidemiology, and other domains are employed for short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting evaluations. Our results demonstrate the superiority of PARNN across various forecast horizons, surpassing the state-of-the-art forecasters. The proposed PARNN model offers a valuable hybrid solution for accurate long-range forecasting. By effectively capturing the complexities present in time series data, it outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy and reliability. The ability to quantify uncertainty through prediction intervals further enhances the model's usefulness in decision-making processes.

Co-citation structure is widely assumed to provide stable retrieval signal in legal information systems. We test this assumption longitudinally by constructing UA-StatuteRetrieval, a benchmark that measures co-citation predictability across 20 annual snapshots (2007-2026) of 396 million codex citations from 101 million Ukrainian court decisions. Using a leave-one-out protocol over the full bipartite citation graph, we find that Adamic-Adar MRR declines 33% on a fixed set of articles (from 0.43 to 0.29) and 47% under a train/test temporal split (from 0.51 to 0.27) confirming genuine temporal decay rather than compositional shift or evaluation artifact. The decay is non-uniform: criminal procedure maintains stable co-citation patterns (MRR ~0.40), while civil law degrades from 0.35 to 0.15, coinciding with the 2017 judicial reform. Hub articles (>100K citations) resist decay, but mid-frequency articles (1K-10K) -- the practical retrieval frontier lose half their predictability. A BM25 text baseline decays even faster (31%), and embedding drift analysis with E5-large reveals a 4.3% semantic shift in how articles are cited, providing a mechanistic explanation for the observed decay. The benchmark is released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/overthelex/ua-statute-retrieval.

Large language models (LLMs) often fail to learn effective long chain-of-thought (Long CoT) reasoning from human or non-Long-CoT LLMs imitation. To understand this, we propose that effective and learnable Long CoT trajectories feature stable molecular-like structures in unified view, which are formed by three interaction types: Deep-Reasoning (covalent-like), Self-Reflection (hydrogen-bond-like), and Self-Exploration (van der Waals-like). Analysis of distilled trajectories reveals these structures emerge from Long CoT fine-tuning, not keyword imitation. We introduce Effective Semantic Isomers and show that only bonds promoting fast entropy convergence support stable Long CoT learning, while structural competition impairs training. Drawing on these findings, we present Mole-Syn, a distribution-transfer-graph method that guides synthesis of effective Long CoT structures, boosting performance and RL stability across benchmarks.

Long-context language models unlock advanced capabilities in reasoning, code generation, and document summarization by leveraging dependencies across extended spans of text. However, a significant portion of readily available long-text data lacks meaningful long-distance dependencies; most spans can be predicted using only local context. Training on such data is inefficient, making careful data selection crucial. Therefore, we introduce LongFilter, a framework for curating training data tailored to long-context pretraining. LongFilter measures the information gain provided by extended context by contrasting model predictions under long-context versus short-context settings, thereby identifying samples where long-range dependencies are essential. Experiments with LLaMA-3-8B, extending its context length from 8K to 64K, show that LongFilter efficiently selects high-quality data and yields substantial improvements on benchmarks such as HELMET, LongBench, and RULER.

We present LingBot-World, an open-sourced world simulator stemming from video generation. Positioned as a top-tier world model, LingBot-World offers the following features. (1) It maintains high fidelity and robust dynamics in a broad spectrum of environments, including realism, scientific contexts, cartoon styles, and beyond. (2) It enables a minute-level horizon while preserving contextual consistency over time, which is also known as "long-term memory". (3) It supports real-time interactivity, achieving a latency of under 1 second when producing 16 frames per second. We provide public access to the code and model in an effort to narrow the divide between open-source and closed-source technologies. We believe our release will empower the community with practical applications across areas like content creation, gaming, and robot learning.

Existing large language models (LLMs) can only afford fix-sized inputs due to the input length limit, preventing them from utilizing rich long-context information from past inputs. To address this, we propose a framework, Language Models Augmented with Long-Term Memory (LongMem), which enables LLMs to memorize long history. We design a novel decoupled network architecture with the original backbone LLM frozen as a memory encoder and an adaptive residual side-network as a memory retriever and reader. Such a decoupled memory design can easily cache and update long-term past contexts for memory retrieval without suffering from memory staleness. Enhanced with memory-augmented adaptation training, LongMem can thus memorize long past context and use long-term memory for language modeling. The proposed memory retrieval module can handle unlimited-length context in its memory bank to benefit various downstream tasks. Typically, LongMem can enlarge the long-form memory to 65k tokens and thus cache many-shot extra demonstration examples as long-form memory for in-context learning. Experiments show that our method outperforms strong long-context models on ChapterBreak, a challenging long-context modeling benchmark, and achieves remarkable improvements on memory-augmented in-context learning over LLMs. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is effective in helping language models to memorize and utilize long-form contents. Our code is open-sourced at https://aka.ms/LongMem.

Large language models (LLMs) often generate content that contains factual errors when responding to fact-seeking prompts on open-ended topics. To benchmark a model's long-form factuality in open domains, we first use GPT-4 to generate LongFact, a prompt set comprising thousands of questions spanning 38 topics. We then propose that LLM agents can be used as automated evaluators for long-form factuality through a method which we call Search-Augmented Factuality Evaluator (SAFE). SAFE utilizes an LLM to break down a long-form response into a set of individual facts and to evaluate the accuracy of each fact using a multi-step reasoning process comprising sending search queries to Google Search and determining whether a fact is supported by the search results. Furthermore, we propose extending F1 score as an aggregated metric for long-form factuality. To do so, we balance the percentage of supported facts in a response (precision) with the percentage of provided facts relative to a hyperparameter representing a user's preferred response length (recall). Empirically, we demonstrate that LLM agents can achieve superhuman rating performance - on a set of ~16k individual facts, SAFE agrees with crowdsourced human annotators 72% of the time, and on a random subset of 100 disagreement cases, SAFE wins 76% of the time. At the same time, SAFE is more than 20 times cheaper than human annotators. We also benchmark thirteen language models on LongFact across four model families (Gemini, GPT, Claude, and PaLM-2), finding that larger language models generally achieve better long-form factuality. LongFact, SAFE, and all experimental code are available at https://github.com/google-deepmind/long-form-factuality.

Alpha mining, a critical component in quantitative investment, focuses on discovering predictive signals for future asset returns in increasingly complex financial markets. However, the pervasive issue of alpha decay, where factors lose their predictive power over time, poses a significant challenge for alpha mining. Traditional methods like genetic programming face rapid alpha decay from overfitting and complexity, while approaches driven by Large Language Models (LLMs), despite their promise, often rely too heavily on existing knowledge, creating homogeneous factors that worsen crowding and accelerate decay. To address this challenge, we propose AlphaAgent, an autonomous framework that effectively integrates LLM agents with ad hoc regularizations for mining decay-resistant alpha factors. AlphaAgent employs three key mechanisms: (i) originality enforcement through a similarity measure based on abstract syntax trees (ASTs) against existing alphas, (ii) hypothesis-factor alignment via LLM-evaluated semantic consistency between market hypotheses and generated factors, and (iii) complexity control via AST-based structural constraints, preventing over-engineered constructions that are prone to overfitting. These mechanisms collectively guide the alpha generation process to balance originality, financial rationale, and adaptability to evolving market conditions, mitigating the risk of alpha decay. Extensive evaluations show that AlphaAgent outperforms traditional and LLM-based methods in mitigating alpha decay across bull and bear markets, consistently delivering significant alpha in Chinese CSI 500 and US S&P 500 markets over the past four years. Notably, AlphaAgent showcases remarkable resistance to alpha decay, elevating the potential for yielding powerful factors.

Recent large language model (LLM)-driven chat assistant systems have integrated memory components to track user-assistant chat histories, enabling more accurate and personalized responses. However, their long-term memory capabilities in sustained interactions remain underexplored. This paper introduces LongMemEval, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate five core long-term memory abilities of chat assistants: information extraction, multi-session reasoning, temporal reasoning, knowledge updates, and abstention. With 500 meticulously curated questions embedded within freely scalable user-assistant chat histories, LongMemEval presents a significant challenge to existing long-term memory systems, with commercial chat assistants and long-context LLMs showing 30% accuracy drop on memorizing information across sustained interactions. We then present a unified framework that breaks down the long-term memory design into four design choices across the indexing, retrieval, and reading stages. Built upon key experimental insights, we propose several memory designs including session decomposition for optimizing value granularity, fact-augmented key expansion for enhancing the index structure, and time-aware query expansion for refining the search scope. Experiment results show that these optimizations greatly improve both memory recall and downstream question answering on LongMemEval. Overall, our study provides valuable resources and guidance for advancing the long-term memory capabilities of LLM-based chat assistants, paving the way toward more personalized and reliable conversational AI.

Extending the generation horizon of video diffusion models to long sequences remains a long-standing and important challenge. Existing training-free approaches fall into two categories: extensions of bidirectional models, which are tightly coupled to specific architectures and suffer from quality degradation over long horizons, and autoregressive models, which accumulate drift errors due to exposure bias and tend to produce repetitive motion patterns. To address these issues, we propose a novel but simple inference-time approach for long video generation that is architecture-agnostic and requires no additional training. Our method generates long videos via overlapping sliding windows, where predicted clean samples from adjacent windows are blended via Tweedie matching to enforce both manifold constraint and temporal consistency across overlap regions. Stochastic early-phase sampling then synchronizes per-window trajectories by injecting fresh noise after each Tweedie matching correction in the high-noise phase, before transitioning to deterministic ODE sampling to preserve fine-grained visual fidelity. Applied to various video generation models, our method generates videos several times longer than the native window length while outperforming both training-free and autoregressive baselines in temporal consistency and visual quality, and further extends to audio-video joint generation and text-to-3DGS without any fine-tuning.

Most of the open-domain dialogue models tend to perform poorly in the setting of long-term human-bot conversations. The possible reason is that they lack the capability of understanding and memorizing long-term dialogue history information. To address this issue, we present a novel task of Long-term Memory Conversation (LeMon) and then build a new dialogue dataset DuLeMon and a dialogue generation framework with Long-Term Memory (LTM) mechanism (called PLATO-LTM). This LTM mechanism enables our system to accurately extract and continuously update long-term persona memory without requiring multiple-session dialogue datasets for model training. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to conduct real-time dynamic management of persona information of both parties, including the user and the bot. Results on DuLeMon indicate that PLATO-LTM can significantly outperform baselines in terms of long-term dialogue consistency, leading to better dialogue engagingness.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance on single-turn tasks, yet their effectiveness deteriorates in multi-turn conversations. We define this phenomenon as cumulative contextual decay - a progressive degradation of contextual integrity caused by attention pollution, dilution, and drift. To address this challenge, we propose Rhea (Role-aware Heuristic Episodic Attention), a novel framework that decouples conversation history into two functionally independent memory modules: (1) an Instructional Memory (IM) that persistently stores high-fidelity global constraints via a structural priority mechanism, and (2) an Episodic Memory (EM) that dynamically manages user-model interactions via asymmetric noise control and heuristic context retrieval. During inference, Rhea constructs a high signal-to-noise context by applying its priority attention: selectively integrating relevant episodic information while always prioritizing global instructions. To validate this approach, experiments on multiple multi-turn conversation benchmarks - including MT-Eval and Long-MT-Bench+ - show that Rhea mitigates performance decay and improves overall accuracy by 1.04 points on a 10-point scale (a 16% relative gain over strong baselines). Moreover, Rhea maintains near-perfect instruction fidelity (IAR > 8.1) across long-horizon interactions. These results demonstrate that Rhea provides a principled and effective framework for building more precise, instruction-consistent conversational LLMs.

With the advancement of interactive video generation, diffusion models have increasingly demonstrated their potential as world models. However, existing approaches still struggle to simultaneously achieve memory-enabled long-term temporal consistency and high-resolution real-time generation, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios. To address this, we present Matrix-Game 3.0, a memory-augmented interactive world model designed for 720p real-time longform video generation. Building upon Matrix-Game 2.0, we introduce systematic improvements across data, model, and inference. First, we develop an upgraded industrial-scale infinite data engine that integrates Unreal Engine-based synthetic data, large-scale automated collection from AAA games, and real-world video augmentation to produce high-quality Video-Pose-Action-Prompt quadruplet data at scale. Second, we propose a training framework for long-horizon consistency: by modeling prediction residuals and re-injecting imperfect generated frames during training, the base model learns self-correction; meanwhile, camera-aware memory retrieval and injection enable the base model to achieve long horizon spatiotemporal consistency. Third, we design a multi-segment autoregressive distillation strategy based on Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD), combined with model quantization and VAE decoder pruning, to achieve efficient real-time inference. Experimental results show that Matrix-Game 3.0 achieves up to 40 FPS real-time generation at 720p resolution with a 5B model, while maintaining stable memory consistency over minute-long sequences. Scaling up to a 2x14B model further improves generation quality, dynamics, and generalization. Our approach provides a practical pathway toward industrial-scale deployable world models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in various natural language processing tasks, yet their ability to generate long-form content remains poorly understood and evaluated. Our analysis reveals that current LLMs struggle with length requirements and information density in long-text generation, with performance deteriorating as text length increases. To quantitively locate such a performance degradation and provide further insights on model development, we present LongEval, a benchmark that evaluates long-text generation through both direct and plan-based generation paradigms, inspired by cognitive and linguistic writing models. The comprehensive experiments in this work reveal interesting findings such as that while model size correlates with generation ability, the small-scale model (e.g., LongWriter), well-trained on long texts, has comparable performance. All code and datasets are released in https://github.com/Wusiwei0410/LongEval.

Video diffusion models have made substantial progress in various video generation applications. However, training models for long video generation tasks require significant computational and data resources, posing a challenge to developing long video diffusion models. This paper investigates a straightforward and training-free approach to extend an existing short video diffusion model (e.g. pre-trained on 16-frame videos) for consistent long video generation (e.g. 128 frames). Our preliminary observation has found that directly applying the short video diffusion model to generate long videos can lead to severe video quality degradation. Further investigation reveals that this degradation is primarily due to the distortion of high-frequency components in long videos, characterized by a decrease in spatial high-frequency components and an increase in temporal high-frequency components. Motivated by this, we propose a novel solution named FreeLong to balance the frequency distribution of long video features during the denoising process. FreeLong blends the low-frequency components of global video features, which encapsulate the entire video sequence, with the high-frequency components of local video features that focus on shorter subsequences of frames. This approach maintains global consistency while incorporating diverse and high-quality spatiotemporal details from local videos, enhancing both the consistency and fidelity of long video generation. We evaluated FreeLong on multiple base video diffusion models and observed significant improvements. Additionally, our method supports coherent multi-prompt generation, ensuring both visual coherence and seamless transitions between scenes.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

Long-term memory is one of the key factors influencing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Model Agents (LLM Agents). Incorporating a memory mechanism that effectively integrates past interactions can significantly enhance decision-making and contextual coherence of LLM Agents. While recent works have made progress in memory storage and retrieval, such as encoding memory into dense vectors for similarity-based search or organizing knowledge in the form of graph, these approaches often fall short in structured memory organization and efficient retrieval. To address these limitations, we propose a Hierarchical Memory (H-MEM) architecture for LLM Agents that organizes and updates memory in a multi-level fashion based on the degree of semantic abstraction. Each memory vector is embedded with a positional index encoding pointing to its semantically related sub-memories in the next layer. During the reasoning phase, an index-based routing mechanism enables efficient, layer-by-layer retrieval without performing exhaustive similarity computations. We evaluate our method on five task settings from the LoCoMo dataset. Experimental results show that our approach consistently outperforms five baseline methods, demonstrating its effectiveness in long-term dialogue scenarios.

Equipping large language models (LLMs) with latent-space memory has attracted increasing attention as they can extend the context window of existing language models. However, retaining information from the distant past remains a challenge. For example, MemoryLLM (Wang et al., 2024a), as a representative work with latent-space memory, compresses past information into hidden states across all layers, forming a memory pool of 1B parameters. While effective for sequence lengths up to 16k tokens, it struggles to retain knowledge beyond 20k tokens. In this work, we address this limitation by introducing M+, a memory-augmented model based on MemoryLLM that significantly enhances long-term information retention. M+ integrates a long-term memory mechanism with a co-trained retriever, dynamically retrieving relevant information during text generation. We evaluate M+ on diverse benchmarks, including long-context understanding and knowledge retention tasks. Experimental results show that M+ significantly outperforms MemoryLLM and recent strong baselines, extending knowledge retention from under 20k to over 160k tokens with similar GPU memory overhead.

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge this gap, we present Latent Laplace Diffusion (LLapDiff), a generative framework that models the target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, enabling horizon-wide generation without step-by-step integration over physical time. We guide the reverse process utilizing a stable modal parameterization motivated by stochastic port-Hamiltonian dynamics, and parameterize its mean evolution in the Laplace domain via learnable complex-conjugate poles, enabling direct evaluation over irregular timestamps. We also link continuous dynamics to irregular observations through renewal-averaging analysis, which maps sampling gaps to effective event-domain poles and motivates a gap-aware history summarizer. Extensive experiments show that LLapDiff improves over baselines in long-horizon forecasting, and its continuous-time generative nature supports missing-value imputation by querying the same model at historical timestamps. Code is available at https://github.com/pixelhero98/LLapDiffusion.

I investigate a stronger form of regularization by deactivating neurons for extended periods, a departure from the temporary changes of methods like Dropout. However, this long-term dynamism introduces a critical challenge: severe training instability when neurons are revived with random weights. To solve this, I propose the Lifecycle (LC) principle, a regularization mechanism centered on a key innovation: state memory. Instead of re-initializing a revived neuron, my method restores its parameters to their last known effective state. This process preserves learned knowledge and avoids destructive optimization shocks. My theoretical analysis reveals that the LC principle smooths the loss landscape, guiding optimization towards flatter minima associated with better generalization. Experiments on image classification benchmarks demonstrate that my method improves generalization and robustness. Crucially, ablation studies confirm that state memory is essential for achieving these gains.

In this work, we leverage pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance time-series forecasting. Mirroring the growing interest in unifying models for Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision, we envision creating an analogous model for long-term time-series forecasting. Due to limited large-scale time-series data for building robust foundation models, our approach LLM4TS focuses on leveraging the strengths of pre-trained LLMs. By combining time-series patching with temporal encoding, we have enhanced the capability of LLMs to handle time-series data effectively. Inspired by the supervised fine-tuning in chatbot domains, we prioritize a two-stage fine-tuning process: first conducting supervised fine-tuning to orient the LLM towards time-series data, followed by task-specific downstream fine-tuning. Furthermore, to unlock the flexibility of pre-trained LLMs without extensive parameter adjustments, we adopt several Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques. Drawing on these innovations, LLM4TS has yielded state-of-the-art results in long-term forecasting. Our model has also shown exceptional capabilities as both a robust representation learner and an effective few-shot learner, thanks to the knowledge transferred from the pre-trained LLM.

A Mamba state-space model trained only for next-step prediction appears to recover Granger-causal structure through a simple readout S = |W_{out} W_{in}|, with early experiments suggesting the phenomenon generalized across architectures and benefited from interventional data at p < 10^{-5}. We package the protocol used to test that claim -- standardized synthetic generators (VAR/Lorenz/CauseMe-style), three intervention semantics (do(X=c), soft-noise, random-forcing), edge-provenance cards on three real datasets, and size-matched control arms -- as a reusable falsification benchmark, and walk the claim through it in five stages. The method-level claim does not survive: (i) a plain linear bottleneck does as well or better; (ii) tuned Lasso beats the bottleneck on synthetic CauseMe-style benchmarks, and on Lorenz-96 (the only real benchmark with unambiguous ground truth) classical PCMCI and Granger lead a tight cluster in which the bottleneck trails; (iii) the headline intervention advantage is roughly 60% a sample-size confound, and the residual disappears under standard do(X=c) interventions, surviving only under a non-standard random-forcing scheme; (iv) even that residual reproduces, with a larger effect, in classical bivariate Granger -- the effect is method-agnostic. What survives is a narrow characterization result; the benchmark is the lasting artifact, and each stage above is one of its control arms.

Recent advances in video generation enable a new paradigm for 3D scene creation: generating camera-controlled videos that simulate scene walkthroughs, then lifting them to 3D via feed-forward reconstruction techniques. This generative reconstruction approach combines the visual fidelity and creative capacity of video models with 3D outputs ready for real-time rendering and simulation. Scaling to large, complex environments requires 3D-consistent video generation over long camera trajectories with large viewpoint changes and location revisits, a setting where current video models degrade quickly. Existing methods for long-horizon generation are fundamentally limited by two forms of degradation: spatial forgetting and temporal drifting. As exploration proceeds, previously observed regions fall outside the model's temporal context, forcing the model to hallucinate structures when revisited. Meanwhile, autoregressive generation accumulates small synthesis errors over time, gradually distorting scene appearance and geometry. We present Lyra 2.0, a framework for generating persistent, explorable 3D worlds at scale. To address spatial forgetting, we maintain per-frame 3D geometry and use it solely for information routing -- retrieving relevant past frames and establishing dense correspondences with the target viewpoints -- while relying on the generative prior for appearance synthesis. To address temporal drifting, we train with self-augmented histories that expose the model to its own degraded outputs, teaching it to correct drift rather than propagate it. Together, these enable substantially longer and 3D-consistent video trajectories, which we leverage to fine-tune feed-forward reconstruction models that reliably recover high-quality 3D scenes.

Though current long-context large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capacities in answering user questions based on extensive text, the lack of citations in their responses makes user verification difficult, leading to concerns about their trustworthiness due to their potential hallucinations. In this work, we aim to enable long-context LLMs to generate responses with fine-grained sentence-level citations, improving their faithfulness and verifiability. We first introduce LongBench-Cite, an automated benchmark for assessing current LLMs' performance in Long-Context Question Answering with Citations (LQAC), revealing considerable room for improvement. To this end, we propose CoF (Coarse to Fine), a novel pipeline that utilizes off-the-shelf LLMs to automatically generate long-context QA instances with precise sentence-level citations, and leverage this pipeline to construct LongCite-45k, a large-scale SFT dataset for LQAC. Finally, we train LongCite-8B and LongCite-9B using the LongCite-45k dataset, successfully enabling their generation of accurate responses and fine-grained sentence-level citations in a single output. The evaluation results on LongBench-Cite show that our trained models achieve state-of-the-art citation quality, surpassing advanced proprietary models including GPT-4o.

Modeling the time-dependent evolution of electron density is essential for understanding quantum mechanical behaviors of condensed matter and enabling predictive simulations in spectroscopy, photochemistry, and ultrafast science. Yet, while machine learning methods have advanced static density prediction, modeling its spatiotemporal dynamics remains largely unexplored. In this work, we introduce a generative framework that combines a 3D convolutional autoencoder with a latent diffusion model (LDM) to learn electron density trajectories from ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations. Our method encodes electron densities into a compact latent space and predicts their future states by sampling from the learned conditional distribution, enabling stable long-horizon rollouts without drift or collapse. To preserve statistical fidelity, we incorporate a scaled Jensen-Shannon divergence regularization that aligns generated and reference density distributions. On AIMD trajectories of liquid lithium at 800 K, our model accurately captures both the spatial correlations and the log-normal-like statistical structure of the density. The proposed framework has the potential to accelerate the simulation of quantum dynamics and overcome key challenges faced by current spatiotemporal machine learning methods as surrogates of quantum mechanical simulators.

With the rapid advancement of AI systems, their abilities to store, retrieve, and utilize information over the long term - referred to as long-term memory - have become increasingly significant. These capabilities are crucial for enhancing the performance of AI systems across a wide range of tasks. However, there is currently no comprehensive survey that systematically investigates AI's long-term memory capabilities, formulates a theoretical framework, and inspires the development of next-generation AI long-term memory systems. This paper begins by systematically introducing the mechanisms of human long-term memory, then explores AI long-term memory mechanisms, establishing a mapping between the two. Based on the mapping relationships identified, we extend the current cognitive architectures and propose the Cognitive Architecture of Self-Adaptive Long-term Memory (SALM). SALM provides a theoretical framework for the practice of AI long-term memory and holds potential for guiding the creation of next-generation long-term memory driven AI systems. Finally, we delve into the future directions and application prospects of AI long-term memory.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

Recent advancements in long-context Large Language Models (LLMs) have primarily concentrated on processing extended input contexts, resulting in significant strides in long-context comprehension. However, the equally critical aspect of generating long-form outputs has received comparatively less attention. This paper advocates for a paradigm shift in NLP research toward addressing the challenges of long-output generation. Tasks such as novel writing, long-term planning, and complex reasoning require models to understand extensive contexts and produce coherent, contextually rich, and logically consistent extended text. These demands highlight a critical gap in current LLM capabilities. We underscore the importance of this under-explored domain and call for focused efforts to develop foundational LLMs tailored for generating high-quality, long-form outputs, which hold immense potential for real-world applications.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), which involves predicting long-term future values by analyzing a large amount of historical time-series data to identify patterns and trends. There exist significant challenges in LTSF due to its complex temporal dependencies and high computational demands. Although Transformer-based models offer high forecasting accuracy, they are often too compute-intensive to be deployed on devices with hardware constraints. On the other hand, the linear models aim to reduce the computational overhead by employing either decomposition methods in the time domain or compact representations in the frequency domain. In this paper, we propose MixLinear, an ultra-lightweight multivariate time series forecasting model specifically designed for resource-constrained devices. MixLinear effectively captures both temporal and frequency domain features by modeling intra-segment and inter-segment variations in the time domain and extracting frequency variations from a low-dimensional latent space in the frequency domain. By reducing the parameter scale of a downsampled n-length input/output one-layer linear model from O(n^2) to O(n), MixLinear achieves efficient computation without sacrificing accuracy. Extensive evaluations with four benchmark datasets show that MixLinear attains forecasting performance comparable to, or surpassing, state-of-the-art models with significantly fewer parameters (0.1K), which makes it well-suited for deployment on devices with limited computational capacity.

Long-sequence streaming 3D reconstruction remains a significant open challenge. Existing autoregressive models often fail when processing long sequences. They typically anchor poses to the first frame, which leads to attention decay, scale drift, and extrapolation errors. We introduce LongStream, a novel gauge-decoupled streaming visual geometry model for metric-scale scene reconstruction across thousands of frames. Our approach is threefold. First, we discard the first-frame anchor and predict keyframe-relative poses. This reformulates long-range extrapolation into a constant-difficulty local task. Second, we introduce orthogonal scale learning. This method fully disentangles geometry from scale estimation to suppress drift. Finally, we solve Transformer cache issues such as attention-sink reliance and long-term KV-cache contamination. We propose cache-consistent training combined with periodic cache refresh. This approach suppresses attention degradation over ultra-long sequences and reduces the gap between training and inference. Experiments show LongStream achieves state-of-the-art performance. It delivers stable, metric-scale reconstruction over kilometer-scale sequences at 18 FPS. Project Page: https://3dagentworld.github.io/longstream/

This paper explores the impact of extending input lengths on the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite LLMs advancements in recent times, their performance consistency across different input lengths is not well understood. We investigate this aspect by introducing a novel QA reasoning framework, specifically designed to assess the impact of input length. We isolate the effect of input length using multiple versions of the same sample, each being extended with padding of different lengths, types and locations. Our findings show a notable degradation in LLMs' reasoning performance at much shorter input lengths than their technical maximum. We show that the degradation trend appears in every version of our dataset, although at different intensities. Additionally, our study reveals that traditional perplexity metrics do not correlate with performance of LLMs' in long input reasoning tasks. We analyse our results and identify failure modes that can serve as useful guides for future research, potentially informing strategies to address the limitations observed in LLMs.

Applying weight decay (WD) to matrix layers is standard practice in large-language-model pretraining. Prior work suggests that stochastic gradient noise induces a Brownian-like expansion of the weight matrices W, whose growth is counteracted by WD, leading to a WD-noise equilibrium with a certain weight norm ||W||. In this work, we view the equilibrium norm as a harmful artifact of the training procedure, and address it by introducing learnable multipliers to learn the optimal scale. First, we attach a learnable scalar multiplier to W and confirm that the WD-noise equilibrium norm is suboptimal: the learned scale adapts to data and improves performance. We then argue that individual row and column norms are similarly constrained, and free their scale by introducing learnable per-row and per-column multipliers. Our method can be viewed as a learnable, more expressive generalization of muP multipliers. It outperforms a well-tuned muP baseline, reduces the computational overhead of multiplier tuning, and surfaces practical questions such as forward-pass symmetries and the width-scaling of the learned multipliers. Finally, we validate learnable multipliers with both Adam and Muon optimizers, where it shows improvement in downstream evaluations matching the improvement of the switching from Adam to Muon.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and specifically a variant with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are enjoying renewed interest as a result of successful applications in a wide range of machine learning problems that involve sequential data. However, while LSTMs provide exceptional results in practice, the source of their performance and their limitations remain rather poorly understood. Using character-level language models as an interpretable testbed, we aim to bridge this gap by providing an analysis of their representations, predictions and error types. In particular, our experiments reveal the existence of interpretable cells that keep track of long-range dependencies such as line lengths, quotes and brackets. Moreover, our comparative analysis with finite horizon n-gram models traces the source of the LSTM improvements to long-range structural dependencies. Finally, we provide analysis of the remaining errors and suggests areas for further study.

Many large language models (LLMs) for medicine have largely been evaluated on short texts, and their ability to handle longer sequences such as a complete electronic health record (EHR) has not been systematically explored. Assessing these models on long sequences is crucial since prior work in the general domain has demonstrated performance degradation of LLMs on longer texts. Motivated by this, we introduce LongBoX, a collection of seven medical datasets in text-to-text format, designed to investigate model performance on long sequences. Preliminary experiments reveal that both medical LLMs (e.g., BioGPT) and strong general domain LLMs (e.g., FLAN-T5) struggle on this benchmark. We further evaluate two techniques designed for long-sequence handling: (i) local-global attention, and (ii) Fusion-in-Decoder (FiD). Our results demonstrate mixed results with long-sequence handling - while scores on some datasets increase, there is substantial room for improvement. We hope that LongBoX facilitates the development of more effective long-sequence techniques for the medical domain. Data and source code are available at https://github.com/Mihir3009/LongBoX.

Long-context modeling has drawn more and more attention in the area of Large Language Models (LLMs). Continual training with long-context data becomes the de-facto method to equip LLMs with the ability to process long inputs. However, it still remains an open challenge to measure the quality of long-context training data. To address this issue, we propose a Long-context data selection framework with Attention-based Dependency Measurement (LADM), which can efficiently identify high-quality long-context data from a large-scale, multi-domain pre-training corpus. LADM leverages the retrieval capabilities of the attention mechanism to capture contextual dependencies, ensuring a comprehensive quality measurement of long-context data. Experimental results show that our LADM framework significantly boosts the performance of LLMs on multiple long-context tasks with only 1B tokens for continual training.

This paper introduce LongViTU, a large-scale (~121k QA pairs, ~900h videos), automatically generated dataset for long-form video understanding. We developed a systematic approach that organizes videos into a hierarchical tree structure and incorporates self-revision mechanisms to ensure high-quality QA pairs. Each QA pair in LongViTU features: 1) long-term context (average certificate length of 4.6 minutes); 2) rich knowledge and condensed reasoning (commonsense, causality, planning, etc.); and 3) explicit timestamp labels for relevant events. LongViTU also serves as a benchmark for instruction following in long-form and streaming video understanding. We evaluate the open-source state-of-the-art long video understanding model, LongVU, and the commercial model, Gemini-1.5-Pro, on our benchmark. They achieve GPT-4 scores of 49.9 and 52.3, respectively, underscoring the substantial challenge posed by our benchmark. Further supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on LongVU led to performance improvements of 12.0% on our benchmark, 2.2% on the in-distribution (ID) benchmark EgoSchema, 1.0%, 2.2% and 1.2% on the out-of-distribution (OOD) benchmarks VideoMME (Long), WorldQA and OpenEQA, respectively. These outcomes demonstrate LongViTU's high data quality and robust OOD generalizability.

Many existing evaluation benchmarks for Large Language Models (LLMs) quickly become outdated due to the emergence of new models and training data. These benchmarks also fall short in assessing how LLM performance changes over time, as they consist of static questions without a temporal dimension. To address these limitations, we propose using future event prediction as a continuous evaluation method to assess LLMs' temporal generalization and forecasting abilities. Our benchmark, Daily Oracle, automatically generates question-answer (QA) pairs from daily news, challenging LLMs to predict "future" event outcomes. Our findings reveal that as pre-training data becomes outdated, LLM performance degrades over time. While Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has the potential to enhance prediction accuracy, the performance degradation pattern persists, highlighting the need for continuous model updates.

Long-horizon agentic reasoning requires large language models to act over long interaction histories containing thoughts, tool calls, observations, and partial conclusions. The challenge is not merely that these histories grow long, but that information needed for the current decision may be scattered across distant steps and only become relevant later. Existing approaches address this difficulty by truncating the interaction history, compressing it into shorter surrogates, or retrieving selected parts of it for reuse, but they do not explicitly model how access to past interaction should adapt to the agent's evolving state. We instead cast long-horizon reasoning as a problem of state-adaptive memory. To this end, we propose State-Adaptive Memory~(SAM), a standalone framework that consolidates ongoing interaction into compact memory cues while preserving raw trajectory pages for intent-driven recall. These cues are not treated as replacements for history; rather, they serve as lightweight handles that allow the agent to reconstruct temporally distant information according to its current needs, without retraining the underlying backbone. We further optimize the memory module through expert-guided supervision and reinforcement learning, aligning it with trajectory-level utility. Across BrowseComp, BrowseComp-ZH, WideSearch, and HLE, SAM consistently outperforms strong baselines over diverse agent backbones. Our results suggest that explicit memory modeling provides a simple and effective foundation for long-horizon agentic reasoning.

The quality of training data are crucial for enhancing the long-text capabilities of foundation models. Despite existing efforts to refine data quality through heuristic rules and evaluations based on data diversity and difficulty, there's a lack of systematic approaches specifically tailored for assessing long texts. Addressing this gap, our work systematically measures the quality of long texts by evaluating three fundamental linguistic dimensions: coherence, cohesion, and complexity. Drawing inspiration from the aforementioned three dimensions, we introduce a suite of metrics designed to evaluate the quality of long texts, encompassing both statistical and pre-trained language model-based ones. Leveraging these metrics, we present LongWanjuan, a bilingual dataset specifically tailored to enhance the training of language models for long-text tasks with over 160B tokens. In LongWanjuan, we categorize long texts into holistic, aggregated, and chaotic types, enabling a detailed analysis of long-text quality. Furthermore, we devise a data mixture recipe that strategically balances different types of long texts within LongWanjuan, leading to significant improvements in model performance on long-text tasks. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/OpenLMLab/LongWanjuan.

Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data. Existing longitudinal causal estimators typically train a new model for each cohort or simulator. We introduce Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks (CausalLongPFN), a prior-fitted in-context predictor for longitudinal causal prediction. The model is pretrained entirely on synthetic episodes sampled from a broad prior over temporal structural causal models, exposing it to treatment-confounder feedback, latent heterogeneity, nonlinear state evolution, delayed effects, and cumulative treatment responses. At test time, CausalLongPFN is frozen: it conditions on support trajectories, a query history, and a proposed future treatment sequence, and returns a predictive distribution over future outcomes without gradient updates or propensity-model fitting. Multi-step predictions are obtained by recursively applying the one-step predictor under the specified treatment sequence. We evaluate on branchable cancer, HIV, and warfarin benchmarks with ground-truth counterfactual labels, and on factual-only rolling-origin prediction in MIMIC-III ICU trajectories. CausalLongPFN is competitive with domain-trained longitudinal baselines on counterfactual benchmarks and performs strongly on factual MIMIC-III prediction, suggesting that broad synthetic causal pretraining can provide a useful frozen alternative when repeated domain-specific training is costly or impractical.

Video diffusion models have recently shown promise for world modeling through autoregressive frame prediction conditioned on actions. However, they struggle to maintain long-term memory due to the high computational cost associated with processing extended sequences in attention layers. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel architecture leveraging state-space models (SSMs) to extend temporal memory without compromising computational efficiency. Unlike previous approaches that retrofit SSMs for non-causal vision tasks, our method fully exploits the inherent advantages of SSMs in causal sequence modeling. Central to our design is a block-wise SSM scanning scheme, which strategically trades off spatial consistency for extended temporal memory, combined with dense local attention to ensure coherence between consecutive frames. We evaluate the long-term memory capabilities of our model through spatial retrieval and reasoning tasks over extended horizons. Experiments on Memory Maze and Minecraft datasets demonstrate that our approach surpasses baselines in preserving long-range memory, while maintaining practical inference speeds suitable for interactive applications.

Although long-term memory systems have made substantial progress in recent years, they still exhibit clear limitations in adaptability, scalability, and self-evolution under continuous interaction settings. Inspired by cognitive theories, we propose HiMem, a hierarchical long-term memory framework for long-horizon dialogues, designed to support memory construction, retrieval, and dynamic updating during sustained interactions. HiMem constructs cognitively consistent Episode Memory via a Topic-Aware Event--Surprise Dual-Channel Segmentation strategy, and builds Note Memory that captures stable knowledge through a multi-stage information extraction pipeline. These two memory types are semantically linked to form a hierarchical structure that bridges concrete interaction events and abstract knowledge, enabling efficient retrieval without sacrificing information fidelity. HiMem supports both hybrid and best-effort retrieval strategies to balance accuracy and efficiency, and incorporates conflict-aware Memory Reconsolidation to revise and supplement stored knowledge based on retrieval feedback. This design enables continual memory self-evolution over long-term use. Experimental results on long-horizon dialogue benchmarks demonstrate that HiMem consistently outperforms representative baselines in accuracy, consistency, and long-term reasoning, while maintaining favorable efficiency. Overall, HiMem provides a principled and scalable design paradigm for building adaptive and self-evolving LLM-based conversational agents. The code is available at https://github.com/jojopdq/HiMem.