Daily Papers

Critical events in multivariate time series, from turbine failures to cardiac arrhythmias, demand accurate prediction, yet labeled data is scarce because such events are rare and costly to annotate. We introduce HEPA (Horizon-conditioned Event Predictive Architecture), built on two key principles. First, a causal Transformer encoder is pretrained via a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA): a horizon-conditioned predictor learns to forecast future representations rather than future values, forcing the encoder to capture predictable temporal dynamics from unlabeled data alone. Second, we freeze the encoder and finetune only the predictor toward the target event, producing a monotonic survival cumulative distribution function (CDF) over horizons. With fixed architecture and optimiser hyperparameters across all benchmarks, HEPA handles water contamination, cyberattack detection, volatility regimes, and eight further event types across 11 domains, exceeding leading time-series architectures including PatchTST, iTransformer, MAE, and Chronos-2 on at least 10 of 14 benchmarks, with an order of magnitude fewer tuned parameters and, on lifecycle datasets, an order of magnitude less labeled data.

Event sequences are chains of random events, each described by heterogeneous (numerical and categorical) features. The problem of event sequence forecasting occurs in finance, healthcare, business process intelligence, and other fields. In this work, we study multi-horizon forecasting of event sequences as a conditional generative modeling problem. We evaluate forecasts not only for prediction accuracy, but also for distributional realism. To this end, we present a benchmark comprising metrics for both quality aspects, strong statistical baselines, recent models adapted from adjacent fields, and curated real-world datasets. Careful evaluation reveals that no method excels at both accuracy and realism, highlighting a fundamental trade-off between the two. Finally, we introduce Wasserstein BaryBooster, an algorithm that aggregates samples from a realism-strong diffusion model into a state-of-the-art predictor, demonstrating that distributional realism can be converted into prediction accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/xaosina/event-sequence-forecasting.

While model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) improves sample efficiency by learning world models from raw observations, existing methods struggle to generalize across structurally similar scenes and remain vulnerable to spurious variations such as textures or color shifts. From a cognitive science perspective, humans segment continuous sensory streams into discrete events and rely on these key events for decision-making. Motivated by this principle, we propose the Event-Aware World Model (EAWM), a general framework that learns event-aware representations to streamline policy learning without requiring handcrafted labels. EAWM employs an automated event generator to derive events from raw observations and introduces a Generic Event Segmentor (GES) to identify event boundaries, which mark the start and end time of event segments. Through event prediction, the representation space is shaped to capture meaningful spatio-temporal transitions. Beyond this, we present a unified formulation of seemingly distinct world model architectures and show the broad applicability of our methods. Experiments on Atari 100K, Craftax 1M, and DeepMind Control 500K, DMC-GB2 500K demonstrate that EAWM consistently boosts the performance of strong MBRL baselines by 10%-45%, setting new state-of-the-art results across benchmarks. Our code is released at https://github.com/MarquisDarwin/EAWM.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Real-world time series are frequently driven by exogenous events and structural shifts, rendering conventional forecasting based solely on historical numerical observations insufficient. While language models can retrieve external news, standard retrieval-augmented approaches struggle with high noise, missing signals, and an inability to reason causally about event impacts. We propose SEER (Self-Evolving Event Reasoning and Retrieval), a closed-loop framework that dynamically optimizes event conditioning for time series forecasting. SEER translates prediction errors into two decoupled feedback mechanisms: (i) a reflective retrieval memory that refines subsequent search queries and filters spurious noise, and (ii) a persistent causal knowledge base that distills transferable domain dynamics. SEER enforces strict chronological boundaries across both event retrieval and reflection, preventing look-ahead bias and data leakage. Across six volatile time-series benchmarks, SEER consistently outperforms state-of-the-art time series foundation models and language model baselines.

Long-term memory is fundamental for personalized agents capable of accumulating knowledge, reasoning over user experiences, and adapting across time. However, existing memory benchmarks primarily target declarative memory, specifically semantic and episodic types, where all information is explicitly presented in dialogues. In contrast, real-world actions are also governed by non-declarative memory, including habitual and procedural types, and need to be inferred from diverse digital traces. To bridge this gap, we introduce Lifebench, which features densely connected, long-horizon event simulation. It pushes AI agents beyond simple recall, requiring the integration of declarative and non-declarative memory reasoning across diverse and temporally extended contexts. Building such a benchmark presents two key challenges: ensuring data quality and scalability. We maintain data quality by employing real-world priors, including anonymized social surveys, map APIs, and holiday-integrated calendars, thus enforcing fidelity, diversity and behavioral rationality within the dataset. Towards scalability, we draw inspiration from cognitive science and structure events according to their partonomic hierarchy; enabling efficient parallel generation while maintaining global coherence. Performance results show that top-tier, state-of-the-art memory systems reach just 55.2\% accuracy, highlighting the inherent difficulty of long-horizon retrieval and multi-source integration within our proposed benchmark. The dataset and data synthesis code are available at https://github.com/1754955896/LifeBench.

Latent world models have emerged as a powerful planning paradigm by learning action-conditioned predictive dynamics and using them as internal simulators to imagine and evaluate candidate action sequences. However, as the planning horizon grows, performance becomes increasingly constrained by proposal quality: a fixed candidate budget must search an exponentially larger action space, making it difficult to expose the world model to high-quality candidate futures for evaluation. In this paper, we introduce a prior-conditioned planner that replaces random proposal initialization with structured guidance. At each planning stage, a goal-conditioned generator predicts the next reachable latent subgoal for a specified duration, which is then used to condition the generation of candidate action sequences. To capture semantic information across temporal scales, we use subgoals of varying durations as priors, balancing fine-grained local control with higher-level long-horizon progress. Then the frozen world model evaluates and refines these subgoal-conditioned proposals before execution. Experiments on PushT and OGBench Cube show that coupling latent subgoal decomposition with prior-conditioned action generation substantially improves long-horizon planning while preserving strong short-horizon performance. To be specific, when the target offset is 150, it raises PushT success from 12.7% to 64.7% and OGBench Cube success from 26.7% to 67.3%.

Event logs are ubiquitous across real-world domains, including business processes, manufacturing workflows, healthcare, and many other operational systems. Yet event logs can differ substantially in their event semantics, label spaces, interaction patterns, and temporal scales, making it difficult to build a single foundation model that generalizes directly to previously unseen systems. We address this challenge with the Foundation Event Predictor (FEP), a simple and scalable in-context architecture that performs next-event prediction through learned, event-level nonparametric inference. Causal self-attention encodes context and target histories into key and query representations, respectively, while the observed next context events are encoded as values. Cross-attention then performs learned, relevance-weighted aggregation of next-event outcomes over all context transitions, allowing the entire nonparametric prediction procedure to be expressed as standard attention operations and efficiently parallelized with modern kernels such as FlashAttention. To promote cross-system generalization, we introduce permutation-robust embedding learning and random fixed embeddings to decouple event IDs from persistent semantics, together with empirical quantile transforms and robust normalization to handle diverse temporal scales. We pretrain FEP on 696 real-world event datasets spanning heterogeneous event systems and evaluate it on 50 held-out datasets unseen during pretraining. Across these datasets, FEP generalizes effectively to new event systems without parameter adaptation, frequently approaching the performance of strong models trained separately on each target dataset while substantially outperforming existing foundation-model baselines, particularly on challenging prediction tasks.

We introduce Adaptive LeWorldModel (ALeWM), a world model based on a joint-embedding predictive architecture (JEPA) that learns to concentrate predictive information in compact prefixes of a wide latent representation. To encourage this ordering, ALeWM learns a sequence-conditioned distribution over prefix lengths and trains the predictor to estimate the full next embedding from a sampled input prefix. As standard anti-collapse objectives encourage variation across latent coordinates and do not organize them by predictive importance, we also introduce MixSIGReg. MixSIGReg regularizes the masked embeddings against a prior-weighted mixture with Gaussian active prefixes and zeros in the remaining coordinates. As a result, the ALeWM objective encourages early coordinates to retain information useful for prediction and recursive planning. Our analysis shows that the mixture distribution used by MixSIGReg assigns higher variance to earlier coordinate blocks and lower variance to later ones. In addition, we show that, under specified assumptions, prediction error is minimized by placing the information most useful for prediction in earlier blocks. Empirically, we study the behavior of ALeWM in a controlled dynamical system with known state variables and in goal-conditioned visual control. We show that ALeWM consistently achieves higher mean success rates than tuned fixed-width LeWM, with lower planning capacity on average.

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) serve as the standard mathematical framework for modeling asynchronous event sequences in continuous time. However, classical TPP models are often constrained by strong assumptions, limiting their ability to capture complex real-world event dynamics. To overcome this limitation, researchers have proposed Neural TPPs, which leverage neural network parametrizations to offer more flexible and efficient modeling. While recent studies demonstrate the effectiveness of Neural TPPs, they often lack a unified setup, relying on different baselines, datasets, and experimental configurations. This makes it challenging to identify the key factors driving improvements in predictive accuracy, hindering research progress. To bridge this gap, we present a comprehensive large-scale experimental study that systematically evaluates the predictive accuracy of state-of-the-art neural TPP models. Our study encompasses multiple real-world and synthetic event sequence datasets, following a carefully designed unified setup. We thoroughly investigate the influence of major architectural components such as event encoding, history encoder, and decoder parametrization on both time and mark prediction tasks. Additionally, we delve into the less explored area of probabilistic calibration for neural TPP models. By analyzing our results, we draw insightful conclusions regarding the significance of history size and the impact of architectural components on predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we shed light on the miscalibration of mark distributions in neural TPP models. Our study aims to provide valuable insights into the performance and characteristics of neural TPP models, contributing to a better understanding of their strengths and limitations.

Building accurate decision-support tools for next-generation air traffic control requires robust trajectory prediction models. We present a flow-matching architecture trained exclusively on historical aircraft trajectories, with no route labels or chart supervision. Trained on 1.15 million Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast trajectory windows collected over the San Francisco Bay Area, the model generates aircraft trajectory distributions that closely match historical traffic, reproducing known airspace structure around San Francisco Airport such as the shape of SFO's published NIITE FOUR departure procedure. Our model is trained directly on the native, irregular ADS-B sampling interval. Trajectory prediction is cast as sequence inpainting using a block-causal Transformer that denoises future state tokens conditioned on the observed history using Conditional Flow Matching or Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models. We compare our architecture against constant-velocity, deterministic-Long Short Term Memory, and Conditional Variational Autoencoders baselines. At matched parameter count, CFM outperforms DDPM by 11-26% in minADE@20, and both generative objectives surpass the CVAE baseline by 31-41%. We further show that the error degrades gracefully with prediction horizon, and the architecture remains effective when retrained on temporally decimated feeds. Lastly, we sample K independent completions, yielding spatial probabilistic occupancy estimates that can serve as input to downstream conflict-risk estimation.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Anticipating how scenes evolve under ego actions is fundamental to safe autonomous driving, yet the full potential of world models for decision-making remains unrealized. The critical challenge lies in ensuring that future modeling is not merely predictive, but decision-informative: the predicted future must directly shape which trajectory is selected. Existing approaches decouple future representation learning from planning optimization, or share predicted states across trajectory candidates, thereby diluting the action-specific consequences that ought to guide selection. To bridge this gap, we propose DA-WAM, a framework that unifies predictive representation learning, action-conditioned future modeling, and trajectory scoring under a single decision-making objective. DA-WAM maintains predictive supervision throughout planner optimization via an online encoder and a stable momentum target, allowing future representations to co-evolve with the driving task. An action-conditioned predictor generates a distinct future latent state per trajectory candidate, which is then evaluated by a future-latent-conditioned factorized scorer. For the expert-matched trajectory, the predicted future latent is supervised by the observed future representation, while safety-critical hard negatives provide additional supervision near planning boundaries. Extensive experiments on NAVSIM-v1 and NAVSIM-v2 demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, while ablations and diagnostic analyses validate the key components.

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in the sequence updates a deductive database of facts (via domain-specific pattern-matching rules); future events are then conditioned on the database contents. They show how to convert such a symbolic system into a neuro-symbolic continuous-time generative model, in which each database fact and the possible event has a time-varying embedding that is derived from its symbolic provenance. In this paper, we modify both models, replacing their recurrent LSTM-based architectures with flatter attention-based architectures (Vaswani et al., 2017), which are simpler and more parallelizable. This does not appear to hurt our accuracy, which is comparable to or better than that of the original models as well as (where applicable) previous attention-based methods (Zuo et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020a).

Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) have shown promising world modeling capabilities, enabling planning in latent space by optimizing action trajectories using methods like the Cross-Entropy Method (CEM). These methods are, however, too computationally expensive and ineffective for long-horizon planning. Furthermore, these methods typically require an explicit image of the goal state, which is not always possible in real-world tasks. In this work, we tackle these limitations by proposing Forward-Forward-JEPA (FF-JEPA), a hierarchical approach leveraging two forward dynamics models. Alongside a standard action-conditioned forward model, we introduce an action-free latent planner that predicts the next subgoal given the current state. This approach removes the need for goal images and enables long-horizon planning by decomposing complex trajectories into a sequence of tractable, short-term optimization problems. Preliminary results on PushT demonstrate that FF-JEPA successfully overcomes flat world models' long-horizon collapse, highlighting this approach as a promising direction for goal-free planning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities but lack robust temporal intelligence, struggling to integrate reasoning about the past with predictions and plausible generations of the future. Meanwhile, existing methods typically target isolated temporal skills, such as question answering about past events or basic forecasting, and exhibit poor generalization, particularly when dealing with events beyond their knowledge cutoff or requiring creative foresight. To address these limitations, we introduce Time-R1, the first framework to endow a moderate-sized (3B-parameter) LLM with comprehensive temporal abilities: understanding, prediction, and creative generation. Our approach features a novel three-stage development path; the first two constitute a reinforcement learning (RL) curriculum driven by a meticulously designed dynamic rule-based reward system. This framework progressively builds (1) foundational temporal understanding and logical event-time mappings from historical data, (2) future event prediction skills for events beyond its knowledge cutoff, and finally (3) enables remarkable generalization to creative future scenario generation without any fine-tuning. Strikingly, experiments demonstrate that Time-R1 outperforms models over 200 times larger, including the state-of-the-art 671B DeepSeek-R1, on highly challenging future event prediction and creative scenario generation benchmarks. This work provides strong evidence that thoughtfully engineered, progressive RL fine-tuning allows smaller, efficient models to achieve superior temporal performance, offering a practical and scalable path towards truly time-aware AI. To foster further research, we also release Time-Bench, a large-scale multi-task temporal reasoning dataset derived from 10 years of news data, and our series of Time-R1 checkpoints.

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

Recent advancements in generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality content from context information, but a key question remains: how to teach models to know when to generate content? To answer this question, this study proposes a novel event generative model that draws its statistical intuition from marked temporal point processes, and offers a clean, flexible, and computationally efficient solution for a wide range of applications involving multi-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of the point process without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples, as well as considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.

Joint embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) predict future latent representations without reconstructing observations, enabling world models to focus on high-level semantic dynamics. However, a JEPA can preserve high dimensional visual information while discarding information about the physical consequences of actions. We call this failure mode causal dynamics information collapse and propose action-grounded vision-invariance latent (AVL) to prevent this collapse. We first use the executed action as an auxiliary dynamics anchor that encourages the model to preserve dynamics information, and then use a vision-invariance pathway which aligns perturbed and clean latent predictions without discarding dynamics information, forcing the model to fully understand and utilize causal dynamics information. We validate AVL on four robotic control tasks (TwoRoom, PushT, OGBench Cube, and Reacher), showing that it substantially improves success rates under visual perturbations while preserving clean-environment performance. We further evaluate physical consequence alignment, clean-noisy dynamics consistency, and the causal effect of targeted transition subspace erasure. Collectively, these results indicate that dynamic information causally relevant to planning is preserved from collapse under AVL.

Despite advances in the application of MLLMs for various video tasks, video event prediction (VEP) remains relatively underexplored. VEP requires the model to perform fine-grained temporal modeling of videos and establish logical relationships between videos and future events, which current MLLMs still struggle with. In this work, we first present a comprehensive evaluation of current leading MLLMs on the VEP task, revealing the reasons behind their inaccurate predictions, including lack of logical reasoning ability for future events prediction and insufficient utilization of visual information. To address these challenges, we propose Chain of Events (CoE) paradigm, which constructs temporal event chains to implicitly enforce MLLM focusing on the visual content and the logical connections between videos and future events, incentivizing model's reasoning capability with multiple training protocols. Experimental results on public benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms both leading open-source and commercial MLLMs, establishing a new state-of-the-art on the VEP task. Codes and models will be released soon.

World models construct latent states that support prediction, planning, and reasoning about an underlying system. Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) offer a direct way to learn such states by predicting targets in representation space instead of reconstructing every detail of the observation. Standard JEPAs, however, organize all predictable content through one target embedding and one prediction pathway. In complex systems, this monolithic state can allocate redundant capacity to dominant signals while providing weak or conflicting gradients to less dominant predictive structure. We introduce \method, a latent world-modeling framework based on orthogonal predictive factorization. Learned basis matrices analyze each target state into multiple components, and a dedicated prediction branch estimates each component from a shared context representation. Predictive regression preserves the factor magnitudes required for state synthesis, an orthogonality objective discourages repeated directions, factor-activity regularization maintains variation in projected targets, and online variance regularization discourages coordinate-wise encoder collapse. Predicted components are synthesized into a complete latent state that can be used by a readout, decoder, planner, or autoregressive rollout. The same predictive-state mechanism applies when the target is temporally future, spatially hidden, or another partial observation of the same system. Experiments on controlled vision, single-cell transcriptomics, longitudinal health records, continuous control, and molecular dynamics evaluate representation quality, forecasting, planning, and long-horizon stability.

Long-horizon behavior prediction aims to infer a user's next action based on a lengthy historical sequence, playing a crucial role in artificial intelligence field. The rise of large language models (LLMs) offers a promising direction for sequential behavior prediction, yet LLMs struggle with latent behavioral pattern induction and model-intrinsic cognitive biases when tackling long-horizon behavior prediction. Prior memory management methods follow a context-compression paradigm that attempts to address this task by alleviating the historical sequence burden, yet fail to resolve the core challenges. In this paper, we advocate a paradigm shift that reframes the lengthy historical sequence from a burden into a valuable resource to be exploited, and accordingly propose PraMem, which conducts beforehand practice over the lengthy historical sequence to build an experiential memory, thereby serving as the assisted input for accurate long-horizon behavior prediction. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks demonstrate that PraMem achieves superior performance than prior methods, and more in-depth analyses provide valuable insights into the mechanism and evolution of the experiential memory. Code: https://github.com/icip-cas/PraMem.

Event cameras sense the world through asynchronous brightness changes with microsecond latency and high dynamic range, offering motion fidelity far beyond frame-based sensors and capturing temporal structure that conventional exposures often miss. These properties make events a powerful complement to RGB in autonomous driving, especially under blur, glare, and rapid motion, where frame-based perception can become unreliable. However, existing event-aware vision-language models remain limited to generic perception and do not reveal how event sensing contributes to reasoning and decision-making across the full driving loop. We present EventDrive, a large-scale benchmark and model suite that unifies event streams, RGB frames, and language supervision across four core dimensions: Perception, Understanding, Prediction, and Planning, covering captions, structured QA, grounding, motion-state recognition, trajectory forecasting, and planning tasks. Building on this foundation, EventDrive-VLM introduces a multi-horizon event pyramid and a temporal-horizon mixture-of-experts module to adaptively encode and fuse asynchronous and frame-based information for downstream reasoning. Comprehensive evaluation across diverse tasks shows that event streams provide substantial gains in temporal precision, motion awareness, and robustness, bringing event sensing into the center of driving intelligence.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

We present EB-JEPA, an open-source library for learning representations and world models using Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs). JEPAs learn to predict in representation space rather than pixel space, avoiding the pitfalls of generative modeling while capturing semantically meaningful features suitable for downstream tasks. Our library provides modular, self-contained implementations that illustrate how representation learning techniques developed for image-level self-supervised learning can transfer to video, where temporal dynamics add complexity, and ultimately to action-conditioned world models, where the model must additionally learn to predict the effects of control inputs. Each example is designed for single-GPU training within a few hours, making energy-based self-supervised learning accessible for research and education. We provide ablations of JEA components on CIFAR-10. Probing these representations yields 91% accuracy, indicating that the model learns useful features. Extending to video, we include a multi-step prediction example on Moving MNIST that demonstrates how the same principles scale to temporal modeling. Finally, we show how these representations can drive action-conditioned world models, achieving a 97% planning success rate on the Two Rooms navigation task. Comprehensive ablations reveal the critical importance of each regularization component for preventing representation collapse. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/eb_jepa.

World models enable agents to plan by predicting future states of the environment, but their predictions can become unreliable when test-time dynamics differ from those seen during training. We present JEPA-TTT, which adapts the latent dynamics predictor of a pretrained action-conditioned Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture world model throughout test time. Self-supervised updates accumulate across episodes, while the visual encoder and reward head remain fixed, preserving the pretrained representation and task objective. Planning requires neither a goal image nor online environment reward. JEPA-TTT uses dense replay, which forms prediction windows at every temporal offset, retains them in a growing buffer, and samples minibatches from that buffer for predictor updates. Across eight dynamics shifts in four continuous-control environments, JEPA-TTT improves planning on every shift. After 500 test-time episodes, it reduces autoregressive latent prediction error by 83% on average and improves planning performance by 153% over the frozen JEPA world model. These results show that persistent self-supervised test-time training can adapt a pretrained latent world model under changed dynamics.

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

In this paper, we propose a framework centering around a novel architecture called the Event Decomposition Recomposition Network (EDRNet) to tackle the Audio-Visual Event (AVE) localization problem in the supervised and weakly supervised settings. AVEs in the real world exhibit common unravelling patterns (termed as Event Progress Checkpoints (EPC)), which humans can perceive through the cooperation of their auditory and visual senses. Unlike earlier methods which attempt to recognize entire event sequences, the EDRNet models EPCs and inter-EPC relationships using stacked temporal convolutions. Based on the postulation that EPC representations are theoretically consistent for an event category, we introduce the State Machine Based Video Fusion, a novel augmentation technique that blends source videos using different EPC template sequences. Additionally, we design a new loss function called the Land-Shore-Sea loss to compactify continuous foreground and background representations. Lastly, to alleviate the issue of confusing events during weak supervision, we propose a prediction stabilization method called Bag to Instance Label Correction. Experiments on the AVE dataset show that our collective framework outperforms the state-of-the-art by a sizable margin.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in video understanding, yet their reliance on retrospective summarization and text-centric priors often limits their ability to bridge unobserved causal transitions when applied to Video Event Prediction (VEP). To address this, we propose VepAgent, an agentic framework that integrates causal-transition reasoning with tool-augmented reinforcement learning (RL) for robust VEP. Unlike prior methods that passively project future trajectories from historical dependencies, our approach explicitly models the logical progression from terminal observed states to future events. Specifically, we first construct futurebench-4K, a high-quality chain-of-thought dataset for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) that effectively bridges the causal-logic gap by structuring the deduction of unobserved intermediate states. Subsequently, we develop a diagnostic tool library integrating state tracking, frame retrieval, and region magnification, enabling the agent to dynamically augment reasoning with external tools to recover missing spatio-temporal evidence and resolve visual ambiguities during inference. Moreover, we propose a composite reward mechanism that jointly optimizes prediction accuracy, causal coherence, and reliable prior, compelling the agent to rely on genuine visual grounding rather than superficial textual similarities. Extensive evaluations on FutureBench and NEPBench datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming larger MLLMs and validating the empirical effectiveness of our agentic, future-oriented reasoning paradigm.

Most existing forecasting systems are memory-based methods, which attempt to mimic human forecasting ability by employing various memory mechanisms and have progressed in temporal modeling for memory dependency. Nevertheless, an obvious weakness of this paradigm is that it can only model limited historical dependence and can not transcend the past. In this paper, we rethink the temporal dependence of event evolution and propose a novel memory-anticipation-based paradigm to model an entire temporal structure, including the past, present, and future. Based on this idea, we present Memory-and-Anticipation Transformer (MAT), a memory-anticipation-based approach, to address the online action detection and anticipation tasks. In addition, owing to the inherent superiority of MAT, it can process online action detection and anticipation tasks in a unified manner. The proposed MAT model is tested on four challenging benchmarks TVSeries, THUMOS'14, HDD, and EPIC-Kitchens-100, for online action detection and anticipation tasks, and it significantly outperforms all existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Echo0125/Memory-and-Anticipation-Transformer.

Cross-platform adaptation in event-based dense perception is crucial for deploying event cameras across diverse settings, such as vehicles, drones, and quadrupeds, each with unique motion dynamics, viewpoints, and class distributions. In this work, we introduce EventFly, a framework for robust cross-platform adaptation in event camera perception. Our approach comprises three key components: i) Event Activation Prior (EAP), which identifies high-activation regions in the target domain to minimize prediction entropy, fostering confident, domain-adaptive predictions; ii) EventBlend, a data-mixing strategy that integrates source and target event voxel grids based on EAP-driven similarity and density maps, enhancing feature alignment; and iii) EventMatch, a dual-discriminator technique that aligns features from source, target, and blended domains for better domain-invariant learning. To holistically assess cross-platform adaptation abilities, we introduce EXPo, a large-scale benchmark with diverse samples across vehicle, drone, and quadruped platforms. Extensive experiments validate our effectiveness, demonstrating substantial gains over popular adaptation methods. We hope this work can pave the way for more adaptive, high-performing event perception across diverse and complex environments.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise as interactive agents that solve tasks through extended sequences of environment interactions. While prior work has primarily focused on system-level optimizations or algorithmic improvements, the role of task horizon length in shaping training dynamics remains poorly understood. In this work, we present a systematic empirical study that examines horizon length through controlled task constructions. Specifically, we construct controlled tasks in which agents face identical decision rules and reasoning structures, but differ only in the length of action sequences required for successful completion. Our results reveal that increasing horizon length alone constitutes a training bottleneck, inducing severe training instability driven by exploration difficulties and credit assignment challenges. We demonstrate that horizon reduction is a key principle to address this limitation, stabilizing training and achieving better performance in long-horizon tasks. Moreover, we find that horizon reduction is related to stronger generalization across horizon lengths: models trained under reduced horizons generalize more effectively to longer-horizon variants at inference time, a phenomenon we refer to as horizon generalization.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is typically concerned with estimating stationary policies or single-step models, leveraging the Markov property to factorize problems in time. However, we can also view RL as a generic sequence modeling problem, with the goal being to produce a sequence of actions that leads to a sequence of high rewards. Viewed in this way, it is tempting to consider whether high-capacity sequence prediction models that work well in other domains, such as natural-language processing, can also provide effective solutions to the RL problem. To this end, we explore how RL can be tackled with the tools of sequence modeling, using a Transformer architecture to model distributions over trajectories and repurposing beam search as a planning algorithm. Framing RL as sequence modeling problem simplifies a range of design decisions, allowing us to dispense with many of the components common in offline RL algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach across long-horizon dynamics prediction, imitation learning, goal-conditioned RL, and offline RL. Further, we show that this approach can be combined with existing model-free algorithms to yield a state-of-the-art planner in sparse-reward, long-horizon tasks.

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture (MMLA) separates slow base parameters theta, a bounded numerical policy carrier Phi, and a bounded authoritative memory M. Predictive Dual-State Adaptation (PDSA) lets feedback update Phi while one problem remains active and lets a trusted lifecycle atomically commit one typed row or exact NULL. Later reasoning may read both states, but their writers, resets, rollback domains, and ledgers remain distinct. Realized futures supervise values only during training; deployment is causal and future-blind. We give conditional theory and falsifiable contracts for reasoning-time updates, completed-segment consolidation, predictive admission, authoritative memory, and dual-state attribution. Assumptions, counterexamples, capacity and cost ledgers, recovery duties, and identifying experiments are explicit; these are not implementation guarantees. Controlled studies show exact lifecycle execution on 300/300 held-out records for each of three seeds, calibrated retrieval gains over frozen-hidden dense and BM25 baselines, and exact typed anchor-filler transport on 240/240 held-out records per seed. These validate restricted components, not natural-language memory management or complete PDSA. Post-training studies retain positive and negative evidence. Later protocols obtain restricted readout progress, but a nine-trajectory comparison finds that matched latent readout, a full-width bridge, and bridge plus frozen text-teacher alignment all fail continuous-event qualification across both task families. A separately adapted text reference and restoration checks pass. At the September 13, 2026 evidence cutoff, no strict policy-only reasoning-time-training effect, predictive-admission oracle margin, learned future-blind admission policy, or policy-by-memory factorial advantage is established.

Many real-world systems exhibit temporal, dynamic behaviors, which are captured as time series of complex agent interactions. To perform temporal reasoning, current methods primarily encode temporal dynamics through simple sequence-based models. However, in general these models fail to efficiently capture the full spectrum of rich dynamics in the input, since the dynamics is not uniformly distributed. In particular, relevant information might be harder to extract and computing power is wasted for processing all individual timesteps, even if they contain no significant changes or no new information. Here we propose TimeGraphs, a novel approach that characterizes dynamic interactions as a hierarchical temporal graph, diverging from traditional sequential representations. Our approach models the interactions using a compact graph-based representation, enabling adaptive reasoning across diverse time scales. Adopting a self-supervised method, TimeGraphs constructs a multi-level event hierarchy from a temporal input, which is then used to efficiently reason about the unevenly distributed dynamics. This construction process is scalable and incremental to accommodate streaming data. We evaluate TimeGraphs on multiple datasets with complex, dynamic agent interactions, including a football simulator, the Resistance game, and the MOMA human activity dataset. The results demonstrate both robustness and efficiency of TimeGraphs on a range of temporal reasoning tasks. Our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance and leads to a performance increase of up to 12.2% on event prediction and recognition tasks over current approaches. Our experiments further demonstrate a wide array of capabilities including zero-shot generalization, robustness in case of data sparsity, and adaptability to streaming data flow.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims at determining whether there is a causal relation between two event mentions. Conventional prompt learning designs a prompt template to first predict an answer word and then maps it to the final decision. Unlike conventional prompts, we argue that predicting an answer word may not be a necessary prerequisite for the ECI task. Instead, we can first make a deterministic assumption on the existence of causal relation between two events and then evaluate its rationality to either accept or reject the assumption. The design motivation is to try the most utilization of the encyclopedia-like knowledge embedded in a pre-trained language model. In light of such considerations, we propose a deterministic assumption prompt learning model, called DAPrompt, for the ECI task. In particular, we design a simple deterministic assumption template concatenating with the input event pair, which includes two masks as predicted events' tokens. We use the probabilities of predicted events to evaluate the assumption rationality for the final event causality decision. Experiments on the EventStoryLine corpus and Causal-TimeBank corpus validate our design objective in terms of significant performance improvements over the state-of-the-art algorithms.

We argue that progress in true multimodal intelligence calls for a shift from reactive, task-driven systems and brute-force long context towards a broader paradigm of supersensing. We frame spatial supersensing as four stages beyond linguistic-only understanding: semantic perception (naming what is seen), streaming event cognition (maintaining memory across continuous experiences), implicit 3D spatial cognition (inferring the world behind pixels), and predictive world modeling (creating internal models that filter and organize information). Current benchmarks largely test only the early stages, offering narrow coverage of spatial cognition and rarely challenging models in ways that require true world modeling. To drive progress in spatial supersensing, we present VSI-SUPER, a two-part benchmark: VSR (long-horizon visual spatial recall) and VSC (continual visual spatial counting). These tasks require arbitrarily long video inputs yet are resistant to brute-force context expansion. We then test data scaling limits by curating VSI-590K and training Cambrian-S, achieving +30% absolute improvement on VSI-Bench without sacrificing general capabilities. Yet performance on VSI-SUPER remains limited, indicating that scale alone is insufficient for spatial supersensing. We propose predictive sensing as a path forward, presenting a proof-of-concept in which a self-supervised next-latent-frame predictor leverages surprise (prediction error) to drive memory and event segmentation. On VSI-SUPER, this approach substantially outperforms leading proprietary baselines, showing that spatial supersensing requires models that not only see but also anticipate, select, and organize experience.

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing the intensity function usually incurs several trade-offs. We show how to overcome the limitations of intensity-based approaches by directly modeling the conditional distribution of inter-event times. We draw on the literature on normalizing flows to design models that are flexible and efficient. We additionally propose a simple mixture model that matches the flexibility of flow-based models, but also permits sampling and computing moments in closed form. The proposed models achieve state-of-the-art performance in standard prediction tasks and are suitable for novel applications, such as learning sequence embeddings and imputing missing data.

A learned world model provides a powerful physical intuition for evaluating future states. But its effectiveness in continuous control also depends critically on how candidate actions are generated for model-based planning. Rather than solely asking how accurately a model can simulate the future, we ask: which candidate actions are worth evaluating in the first place? Existing planners typically search arbitrarily or use expert demonstrations only to initialize a sampling mean, discarding the expert's state-conditioned confidence. Properly guiding this search requires a robust action prior, yet current approaches often rely on independent visual encoders or large-scale VLMs to obtain one. We argue that this architectural bloat is unnecessary: the exact same data - and the learned representations of the world model itself - inherently encode the agent's action intuition. We introduce PRISM, a task-agnostic framework that extracts both from a single dataset while maintaining strict architectural simplicity. Building on a standard JEPA-style latent world model, PRISM attaches a lightweight MLP directly to its frozen encoder to predict a state-conditioned Gaussian prior. At plan time, PRISM fuses this prior into the planner's sampling distribution via a precision-weighted Product-of-Gaussians update. This parameter-free, closed-form integration steers the sampling process, making the prior confident where it is and ceding control where it is not. PRISM improves success rates by 35 percentage points over vanilla world-model-based MPC on Cube and 32 percentage points on PushT, without introducing significant inference overhead.

Event logs arise in a wide range of real-world processes, capturing not only event activities and timestamps but also multi-modal contextual information. Existing event-sequence models, including many temporal point process approaches, primarily model event activities and timestamps while overlooking heterogeneous context, such as numerical measurements, categorical attributes, textual descriptions, and metadata associated with individual events and entire traces. In this paper, we propose Universal Multi-Modal Traceformer (UMT), a unified framework for incorporating heterogeneous process context into next-event prediction. Built on a Transformer backbone, UMT introduces a universal feature encoder that maps diverse feature types into a shared representation space and handles contextual information at both the event and trace levels. UMT further develops a per-event Perceiver module that dynamically weights contextual features and adaptively integrates them into event-token representations. To accommodate the heavy-tailed and potentially multi-modal distribution of inter-arrival times, UMT represents each interval at multiple temporal scales and jointly predicts the corresponding scale-specific quantities. Experiments on 13 real-world event logs show that UMT improves both next-event activity and time prediction over existing approaches.

Long-horizon action-conditioned video generation aims to synthesize temporally coherent videos that follow complex action instructions over extended horizons, requiring procedural ordering, persistent action execution, and scene consistency beyond conventional TI2V's short-term fidelity. Existing single-shot video generation models typically operate in an open-loop manner, leading to incomplete action execution, hallucinated motions, and temporal drift. To address this, we propose SPIRAL, a closed-loop framework that performs sequential planning and iterative reflection for action-conditioned long-horizon video generation. Specifically, SPIRAL instantiates a think-act-reflect process: a PlanAgent decomposes high-level goals into sub-actions, which condition a VideoGenerator to synthesize each segment alongside a memory context, while a CriticAgent evaluates intermediate video segments to provide corrective feedback for iterative refinement. This closed-loop design further supports self-evolution by utilizing PlanAgent-proposed actions and CriticAgent-derived rewards for GRPO-based post-training to enhance the video generator's long-horizon consistency. Moreover, we introduce ActVideoGen-Dataset for task-specific training, and establish ActVideoGen-Bench as a dedicated evaluation suite for measuring action quality and temporal coherence. Experiments across multiple TI2V backbones alongside the self-evolving strategy show consistent gains on ActVideoGen-Bench and VBench, demonstrating the effectiveness of SPIRAL.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real-world applications, event data is typically received in a streaming manner, where the distribution of patterns may shift over time. Additionally, privacy and memory constraints are commonly observed in practical scenarios, further compounding the challenges. Therefore, the continuous monitoring of a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-explored problem. Our work paper addresses this challenge by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which makes the model capable of continuously learning a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting under realistic constraints. Correspondingly, we propose a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPPOur code is available at {\small \url{ https://github.com/yanyanSann/PromptTPP}}, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. The prompts, small learnable parameters, are stored in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP, ensuring that the model learns event streams sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We present a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across three real user behavior datasets.

User preferences evolve across months of interaction, and tracking them requires inferring when a stated preference has been changed by a subsequent life event. We define this problem as long-horizon personalization and observe that progress on it is limited by data availability and measurement, with no existing resource providing both naturalistic long-horizon interactions and the ground-truth provenance needed to diagnose why models fail. We introduce a data generator that produces conversations from a structured mental state graph, yielding ground-truth provenance for every preference change across 6-month timelines, and from it construct HorizonBench, a benchmark of 4,245 items from 360 simulated users with 6-month conversation histories averaging ~4,300 turns and ~163K tokens. HorizonBench provides a testbed for long-context modeling, memory-augmented architectures, theory-of-mind reasoning, and user modeling. Across 25 frontier models, the best model reaches 52.8% and most score at or below the 20% chance baseline. When these models err on evolved preferences, over a third of the time they select the user's originally stated value without tracking the updated user state. This belief-update failure persists across context lengths and expression explicitness levels, identifying state-tracking capability as the primary bottleneck for long-horizon personalization.

Real-time robot control demands enough visual history to infer motion and task progress, but processing that history can delay action. We present Long-WAM, a model-system framework for scaling the context of causal world-action models under real-time control constraints. Our central finding is that access to history is not the same as using it: longer histories pay off far more when the video foundation is pretrained autoregressively (AR). We first learn causal prediction from robot and egocentric videos without action labels, then preserve this history-to-future structure during world-action adaptation. On RoboCasa GR-1, increasing context from 0.0 to 19.2 seconds raises success from 63.3% to 78.7%, whereas a bidirectionally pretrained initialization shows no net gain; robot-domain AR pretraining further raises peak success on GR-1 and LIBERO-Long. Long-WAM also achieves the best results among compared methods on LIBERO-Long, RoboTwin 2.0, and DOMINO. Streaming observation encoding, asynchronous execution, and hardware-specific acceleration enable deployment on RTX 5090, DGX Spark, and Jetson AGX Thor without dropping future prediction; on RTX 5090, each action chunk, including future-video latent prediction, takes 107.4 ms. Real-time deployment on Unitree G1 and YAM supports dynamic and long-horizon manipulation, including 95% success on dynamic cup stacking, where Pi0.5 and Fast-WAM succeed in none of 20 trials. As a memory-informed executor, Long-WAM also complements higher-level planning in composite tasks.

World-Action Models (WAMs) utilize future visual prediction as an intermediate reasoning process to guide action generation. However, existing WAMs typically structure visual imagination according to predefined temporal intervals, without explicitly accounting for the different roles of task-critical interactions and connecting transitions. We argue that effective visual foresight should align directly with task-relevant interactions and their corresponding reasoning demands. To this end, we introduce an event-aligned visual action reasoning framework that organizes visual-action prediction around interaction events. Through event-aligned visual-action supervision, WAM learns to generate event-aligned visual context in each imagined rollout, placing greater emphasis on critical state changes that inform action generation. This shapes the visual reasoning granularity according to the underlying interaction dynamics, with detailed reasoning around task-critical events and coarser progression through connecting transitions. Furthermore, we introduce an execution validity head that identifies the valid portion of each predicted action sequence, avoiding redundant actions during chunked inference. Experiments demonstrate a 10.26 percentage point improvement in DOMINO success rate over baseline and competitive performance on RoboTwin 2.0. It also transfers from DOMINO Level 1 to Levels 2 and 3 without target-level adaptation.

Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) learn latent dynamics for planning and avoid representation collapse by matching features to maximum-entropy distributions such as isotropic Gaussians, yielding dense representations. However, it is unclear whether dense representations are the most favorable geometry for modeling dynamics. In this work, we ask whether a different geometry, sparse representations, can make action-conditioned latent dynamics easier to model, and what dynamical structure emerges from such representations. We first show that nonlinear Lipschitz dynamics can be approximated arbitrarily well by action-conditioned linear dynamics in a sufficiently high-dimensional one-hot latent space, with rollout error vanishing as the dimension grows. This motivates distributed sparse representations as a practical relaxation of one-hot sparsity. We introduce LpWorldModel (LpWM), a JEPA model regularized with Rectified Distribution Matching Regularization (RDMReg) to match encoder features to a Rectified Generalized Gaussian distribution, yielding non-negative sparse codes. Empirically, sparsity lowers the predictor complexity required for successful planning: on PushT, sparse LpWM outperforms dense LeWM by up to 57% in planning success at intermediate predictor capacities. This advantage also extends beyond Gaussian distribution matching, with LpWM outperforming dense VICReg representations across multiple predictor families. We further find that the learned sparse representations are mode-factored, with support encoding discrete dynamical regimes and feature magnitudes capturing continuous within-regime state. Together, these results suggest that sparse representations can reduce the predictor complexity required for control while revealing interpretable structure.

World models must predict how an environment evolves under sequences of actions, enabling agents to compare possible futures and reason about counterfactual actions before acting. Long-horizon prediction is commonly obtained by recursively applying a one-step transition model, but intermediate errors can compound over time. Multi-step dynamics models instead condition on a sequence of future actions and predict their consequences directly, but become harder to learn as horizon grows: the model must track interacting state changes across the trajectory, endpoint supervision provides weak credit assignment, and intermediate predictions can remain plausible while losing information needed for later states. We show that these challenges can be addressed by casting the internal evolution of a multi-step transition as structured reasoning over textual world states: reasoning over sparse state changes reduces the burden of state tracking, a predictive-gain objective rewards the learned state for improving over a matched predictor that conditions on raw history instead, and intermediate predictive rewards supervise each state along the trajectory. Because these intermediate states are explicit textual representations of the world, they provide semantically meaningful targets that can be inspected, scored, and corrected during training. Across ScienceWorld, Jericho, and CEO-Bench, our approach achieves the strongest average long-horizon performance against recursive and non-recursive baselines that condition directly on raw history, with gains increasing at longer horizons. In a controlled counterfactual study, our model is also the only one with statistically significant sensitivity to future actions.

Cross-machine deployment of industrial world models requires transfer across changes in dynamics, sensing interfaces, sampling regimes, and control units. We study a schema-adaptive action-conditioned Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (SAAC-JEPA) for CNC dynamics, where the source machine has 17 canonical sensor channels and the target shares only 10. Evaluation uses group-disjoint source splits, source-only normalization, held-out self-supervised validation, unit audits, and a sealed target test after model locking. Across five seeds, JEPA pretraining gives no clean-source forecasting gain: scratch and pretrained-body models obtain \(RMSE=0.811\pm0.022\) and \(0.813\pm0.022\). A source-only search over 20 candidates selects a schema-consistent action-conditioned JEPA after seven-seed stability checks. On the confirmatory target pass, the locked model reaches zero-shot \(RMSE=0.546\), \(R^2=0.012\), and \(NLL=0.52\), outperforming persistence but not RevIN-equipped PatchTST and iTransformer baselines (\(0.503\) and \(0.498\)). A pre-declared paired ablation shows that RevIN in the same architecture improves RMSE to \(0.495\pm0.004\) over three seeds, but degrades target calibration (\(NLL=20.6\)) on stationary context windows. A pre-lock adaptation sweep further reduces RMSE to \(0.520\) with limited target support. These results show that source-domain forecasting accuracy alone is insufficient to assess industrial predictive representations, and that cross-machine adaptation under partial sensor overlap is a distinct evaluation axis.

Event cameras capture dynamic scenes with exceptional temporal fidelity by representing them as a continuous stream of microsecond resolution events. Each individual event, however, only carries minimal semantic value, merely signaling a localized brightness change. To derive meaningful signals, downstream algorithms need to quickly integrate cues from a potentially massive torrent of low-information events. Current architectures, however, are easily overwhelmed, struggling to balance capturing fine-grained temporal dynamics and maintaining a manageable data throughput. This paper proposes a framework to re-tokenize event streams into a small set of highly informative neural events, each representing a local spatio-temporal context window with a discrete learnable code. Every time this code flips, a neural event is triggered, yielding a highly compressed data stream. We demonstrate that, across object detection and classification, networks trained on neural events are on par or surpass the performance of state-of-the-art approaches while reducing the event rate by a factor of 2.0.

A world model enables an intelligent agent to imagine, predict, and reason about how the world evolves in response to its actions, and accordingly to plan and strategize. While recent video generation models produce realistic visual sequences, they typically operate in the prompt-to-full-video manner without causal control, interactivity, or long-horizon consistency required for purposeful reasoning. Existing world modeling efforts, on the other hand, often focus on restricted domains (e.g., physical, game, or 3D-scene dynamics) with limited depth and controllability, and struggle to generalize across diverse environments and interaction formats. In this work, we introduce PAN, a general, interactable, and long-horizon world model that predicts future world states through high-quality video simulation conditioned on history and natural language actions. PAN employs the Generative Latent Prediction (GLP) architecture that combines an autoregressive latent dynamics backbone based on a large language model (LLM), which grounds simulation in extensive text-based knowledge and enables conditioning on language-specified actions, with a video diffusion decoder that reconstructs perceptually detailed and temporally coherent visual observations, to achieve a unification between latent space reasoning (imagination) and realizable world dynamics (reality). Trained on large-scale video-action pairs spanning diverse domains, PAN supports open-domain, action-conditioned simulation with coherent, long-term dynamics. Extensive experiments show that PAN achieves strong performance in action-conditioned world simulation, long-horizon forecasting, and simulative reasoning compared to other video generators and world models, taking a step towards general world models that enable predictive simulation of future world states for reasoning and acting.

World models - learned internal simulators of environment dynamics - are rapidly becoming foundational to autonomous decision-making in robotics, autonomous vehicles, and agentic AI. By predicting future states in compressed latent spaces, they enable sample-efficient planning and long-horizon imagination without direct environment interaction. Yet this predictive power introduces a distinctive set of safety, security, and cognitive risks. Adversaries can corrupt training data, poison latent representations, and exploit compounding rollout errors to cause significant degradation in safety-critical deployments. At the alignment layer, world model-equipped agents are more capable of goal misgeneralisation, deceptive alignment, and reward hacking. At the human layer, authoritative world model predictions foster automation bias, miscalibrated trust, and planning hallucination. This paper surveys the world model landscape; introduces formal definitions of trajectory persistence and representational risk; presents a five-profile attacker taxonomy; and develops a unified threat model drawing on MITRE ATLAS and the OWASP LLM Top 10. We provide an empirical proof-of-concept demonstrating trajectory-persistent adversarial attacks on a GRU-based RSSM (A_1 = 2.26times amplification, -59.5% reward reduction under adversarial fine-tuning), validate architecture-dependence via a stochastic RSSM proxy (A_1 = 0.65times), and probe a real DreamerV3 checkpoint (non-zero action drift confirmed). We propose interdisciplinary mitigations spanning adversarial hardening, alignment engineering, NIST AI RMF and EU AI Act governance, and human-factors design, arguing that world models require the same rigour as flight-control software or medical devices.

In joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPA), an encoder and a predictor are trained together to produce a representation that minimizes the error in predicting the representation of the next observation. Because the representations of both the current and the next observation are learned, it is unclear which features they will include. Earlier characterizations describe the features JEPA selects in terms of their individual predictability, raising the concern that unpredictable features, like a traffic light, will not be encoded into the representation. However, the prediction error is also affected by the relationships between features, e.g., the light's color helps predict whether the traffic will stop. We propose the predictive closure characterization, which accounts for these relationships. Based on a reformulation of the JEPA training objective, we show that selection depends on properties of feature sets. This view agrees with earlier works when features evolve independently, but makes new predictions when they do not, for instance that a feature like the traffic light can still be retained. We test this characterization in controlled experiments, which show that unpredictable features can become better represented when they help predict other features, and that changing one feature's predictive relationships can affect how well others are represented. We also demonstrate implications for steering feature selection: targeting one feature with an auxiliary objective, or supplying it to the predictor as side information, can strengthen the representation of another feature whose future values it helps predict, so steering can be indirect.

Interactive traffic simulation is a vital world model for autonomous driving. A central challenge in long-horizon simulation is modeling sustained multi-agent interactions, which is further exacerbated by dynamic token cardinality as agents continuously enter and exit the scene. In this work, we propose that the solution lies in the synergy between the architectural inductive biases and statistical priors of large-scale sequence models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs). Our probing experiments reveal that the transferability of attention mechanisms and the distributional consistency between motion tokens and natural language enable small-scale, heavily frozen LLMs to rapidly adapt to traffic modeling. Building on this insight, we introduce RosettaSim, a unified framework that projects scene topology, agent states, and spawning intents into a structured autoregressive stream with variable length, achieving both strong short-term accuracy and stable long-horizon simulation fidelity. Furthermore, evaluating extended rollouts presents yet another hurdle, as one-to-one agent correspondence inevitably fades over time. To address this, we introduce Retrieval-based Traffic Evaluation (RTE), which retrieves semantically similar real-world scenarios as context-aware reference anchors. Experiments on the Waymo Open Sim Agent Challenge (WOSAC) demonstrate that RosettaSim achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-term simulation. Furthermore, RTE exhibits a stronger correlation with standard metrics (r=0.83) than existing approaches (r=0.74), indicating improved alignment with long-horizon simulation fidelity.

Long-horizon tasks are common in real-world robotic deployments, yet failure detection for such tasks remains underexplored. Detecting failures in long-horizon robotic tasks is particularly challenging because failure onset is often ambiguous and dense temporal annotations are typically unavailable. We present Foresight, a failure detection framework that monitors manipulation trajectories using latent representations from an action-conditioned world model. Foresight is trained using only final task-level success or failure labels. By leveraging predictive world-model embeddings, our method provides a unified framework for failure detection across different policies. We further use functional conformal prediction (FCP) to calibrate detection thresholds adaptively. We evaluate Foresight with state-of-the-art vision-language-action policies in simulation on LIBERO-Long, ManiSkill-Long, and BEHAVIOR-1K, compare it against state-of-the-artfailure detection methods, and validate it on real robots with three long-horizon tasks on a ReactorX-200 arm and one task on a Franka arm. Our results suggest that action-conditioned world-model embeddings provide a scalable representation for reliable failure monitoring in long-horizon manipulation.

Accurate dynamics models are critical for informed decision-making in robotic systems, particularly for agile aerial vehicles operating under uncertainty. Neural network dynamics models are attractive for capturing complex nonlinear effects, but existing predictive approaches struggle with long-horizon forecasting because their autoregressive rollout mechanism amplifies errors over time. Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) offer a compelling alternative by modeling dynamics in latent space, yet prior JEPA-style methods for robot navigation have been studied primarily for kinematic-level planning, with limited investigation in high-frequency control. In this work, we introduce the JEPA-style model for real-time quadrotor control. The proposed approach combines a latent dynamics model with a novel physics-inspired prober that maps frozen latents to interpretable state, enabling physically grounded long-horizon prediction. Additionally, we combine the learned model with a sampling-based optimal control solution to take advantage of its predictive capabilities for real-time control on embedded hardware. Finally, to reduce the dependence on expensive and unsafe real-world data collection, we develop a structured pipeline for automated dataset generation. Extensive open-loop and outdoor closed-loop experiments demonstrate accurate prediction, robust zero-shot sim-to-real transfer, and strong generalization across diverse operating conditions.

Lifelong physical agents must reason over extended interactions where past events continue to shape the world long after they disappear from view. Beyond recalling what happened, agents must infer how history changes the current state and constrains future actions. Yet existing embodied and video-memory benchmarks largely focus on historical retrieval and summary, leaving such history-dependent causal reasoning underexplored. We introduce EMBER-Bench, an egocentric benchmark for cross-event causal reasoning in long-horizon embodied tasks, for which we newly created the task design, video recording, and data annotation. It contains 189 household tasks and 699 QA pairs, spanning task progress, failure recovery, external interventions, and compound long-horizon tasks with distant dependencies and prerequisites, with fine-grained event and causal-chain annotations. EMBER-Bench evaluates reasoning in both directions: next-action prediction selects the next action from history, and causal traceback, given that action, identifies the historical event that makes it necessary. Input ablations that add action logs or privileged cause-and-consequence annotations to the video indicate which kind of historical information models fail to use. Among the 16 evaluated models, the highest overall accuracy is 61.2%, compared with a mean of 98.3% across two human evaluators. At paired decision points, correct traceback is not associated with correct next-action prediction. Adding action logs yields a gain of 1.6 points, whereas cause-and-consequence annotations yield an additional gain of 13.0 points on top of that. These results suggest that extracting causal information from past events and converting it into constraints on current actions remains a key difficulty for long-horizon embodied agents. Project Page: https://zhaoalexgoat.github.io/EMBER-Bench/

A latent world model may achieve accurate short-horizon prediction while still inducing a latent space that is poorly aligned with planning. A key issue is spatiotemporal mismatch: these models are often trained with local predictive supervision, but deployed for long-horizon goal-directed search in latent spaces where Euclidean distance may not reflect what is reachable within a finite action budget. We present the Reachability-Correction auxiliary objective (RC-aux), a lightweight correction for this mismatch in reconstruction-free latent world models. RC-aux keeps the world-model backbone unchanged and adds planning-aligned supervision along two axes. Along the time axis, multi-horizon open-loop prediction trains the model beyond one-step consistency. Along the space axis, budget-conditioned reachability supervision, together with temporal hard negatives, encourages the latent space to distinguish states that are eventually reachable from those reachable within the current planning horizon. At test time, the learned reachability signal can also be used by a reachability-aware planner to favor trajectories that are both goal-directed and attainable under the available budget. We instantiate RC-aux on LeWorldModel and evaluate it under both continuation-training and matched-from-scratch settings. Across goal-conditioned pixel-control tasks and a LIBERO-Goal extension, RC-aux improves LeWM-style planning with modest additional cost. These results suggest that planning with latent world models depends not only on predictive accuracy, but also on whether the learned representation encodes the temporal and geometric structure required by downstream search. The code is available at https://github.com/Guang000/RC-aux.

Advances in generative models have improved video fidelity, enabling long-horizon generation, interactive world modeling, and evolving visual environments. Autoregressive (AR) video generation extends visual sequences through causal rollouts. However, a fundamental bottleneck emerges: as the generated sequence expands, practical models must operate under strictly bounded context windows, storage, and computational limits. Consequently, critical historical information, e.g., entity identities, dynamic states, and intervention-induced causal changes, often leaves the active context long before its relevance diminishes. Overcoming this limitation and maintaining temporal persistence constitutes a fundamental memory problem. We present a systematic and comprehensive review of memory mechanisms in AR video generation. We formulate memory operationally as persistent historical information maintained across outer AR steps, capable of influencing future generation even after the originating evidence is no longer locally accessible. Building upon this unified framework, we organize the literature through five complementary perspectives: (I) Forms, the representational carriers of history; (II) Functions, the specific semantic and physical information requiring preservation; (III) Operations, the lifecycle of writing, reading, updating, managing, and integrating memory; (IV) Learning, the optimization of memory behaviors under closed-loop rollouts; and (V) Evaluation, the paradigms for diagnosing genuine memory capabilities. We conclude by synthesizing open challenges, including composable and resource-aware memory architectures, trustworthy state updating, self-rollout learning, and standardized evaluation. By bridging representations, mechanisms, and learning paradigms, this paper establishes a structured foundation for developing reliable, memory-conditioned video generation systems.

Electronic health record (EHR) foundation models trained on longitudinal patient trajectories have demonstrated strong performance across diverse clinical prediction tasks. However, their clinical reasoning capabilities remain constrained by next-token prediction on limited and incomplete EHR data. To address this, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning framework that treats EHR foundation models as generative policies over patient trajectories. We formulate common clinical prediction problems (e.g., hospital readmission) as event-conditioned, time-windowed reasoning tasks. We then design time-aware, rollout-sensitive rewards to account for finite rollout lengths and temporally inconclusive outcomes. We find that RL fine-tuning consistently improves over pre-trained backbones and strong baselines. Notably, it enables smaller models to surpass larger pre-trained models in data-limited regimes and induces positive transfer across tasks. Further analysis shows that RL fine-tuned models generate trajectories with stronger structural and semantic alignment to ground truth and greater downstream utility.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies translate language and visual inputs into robot actions, where their hidden representations directly shape closed-loop behavior. However, mechanistic interpretability tools from language and vision-language models do not transfer cleanly to VLAs: outputs are robot actions rather than human-readable tokens, and interventions can only be tested via expensive closed-loop rollouts. We propose an event-grounded interpretability pipeline that anchors SAE feature analysis to behavioral events rather than text contexts. End-effector keyframes are clustered within each task using visual, state, and temporal cues, linking SAE features to behaviorally salient events and, via optional VLM annotations, to semantic context. To our knowledge, our pipeline is among the first to ground SAE-based VLA analysis in closed-loop behavioral events. Across two simulation architectures and a real-robot study, event-grounded ranking yields the strongest causal effects on OpenVLA and transfers to the continuous action chunks of π_{0.5}. SAE is a sparse but imperfect intervention basis: usability varies with architecture and intervention site, and aggressive intervention reveals safety and interpretability limits. Overall, event-grounded SAE analysis emerges as a practical starting point for behavior-anchored VLA interpretability, motivating future work on SAE features beyond action-aligned coordinates, finer-grained closed-loop evaluation, and safe interventions for high-stakes VLA deployments. Code is available at https://github.com/xc-j/Event-SAE.

Modern video games combine first-person perception, rapid visual changes, persistent world state, and heterogeneous native controls. Existing game agents map visual and task context directly to actions but lack explicit world dynamics modeling, whereas interactive game world models predict visual futures from supplied actions but do not serve as task policies. World-Action Models (WAMs) unify these objectives, but remain largely unexplored under the dynamics and open-ended interaction of video games. We introduce GameWAM, to our knowledge the first WAM for native closed-loop gameplay and GUI control. GameWAM jointly generates future visual observations and executable keyboard-mouse trajectories through parallel visual and action generative processes with block-causal conditioning and flow matching. To support joint world-action learning, we construct synchronized gameplay and GUI trajectories. To handle heterogeneous native control, GameWAM predicts a gameplay/GUI mode at each action step and generates actions with mode-specific prediction distributions and continuous-action normalization. For long-horizon interaction, block-cycle control predicts beyond the committed horizon, executes only a short action prefix, and replans from new observations, while fine-grained within-cycle context and hierarchical cross-cycle history preserve temporal continuity. Experiments demonstrate competitive task success with fewer executed native actions than the compared agents. We further uncover Low-Frequency Action Source Imprinting (LASI), in which low-frequency components of the sampled action source systematically steer coarse generated camera motion under fixed conditioning, revealing a source-sensitivity failure mode in generative control. Project page is available at https://yunncheng.github.io/GameWAM/.

Urban navigation requires embodied agents to pursue long-horizon goals through local decisions based on egocentric observations. However, existing agentic navigation methods often struggle to translate distant goals into coherent local decisions in large-scale physical environments. Their reliance on linguistic reasoning over transient observations or limited history constrains anticipation of the consequences of actions and future conditions, despite the importance of such foresight for navigating long and complex urban routes. To bridge this gap, we propose PreAct-Nav, an agentic navigation framework that equips frozen policies with anticipatory reasoning for robust urban navigation. Our central idea is to anchor local decisions in persistent medium-horizon subgoals, assess the consequences of predicted actions before execution, and continually update the reasoning context using actual outcomes. At its core, a navigation memory module maintains the active subgoal and relevant experience across decisions, translating distant goals into actionable intermediate objectives. We further introduce a predictive world sandbox that uses an action-conditioned world model (AC-WM) to forecast world dynamics conditioned on candidate movements. A vision-language model (VLM) reasoner interprets these predictions under the current subgoal to retain or revise actions. After execution, real observations are used to assess outcomes, correct inconsistent assumptions, and update memory to continue or reformulate the subgoal. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that the proposed PreAct-Nav improves action selection through memory updates and visual prediction, with more pronounced gains on longer routes and routes with more turns.

Understanding how events in a scenario causally connect with each other is important for effectively modeling and reasoning about events. But event reasoning remains a difficult challenge, and despite recent advances, Large Language Models (LLMs) still struggle to accurately identify causal connections between events. This struggle leads to poor performance on deeper reasoning tasks like event forecasting and timeline understanding. To address this challenge, we investigate the generation of causal event graphs (e.g., A enables B) as a parallel mechanism to help LLMs explicitly represent causality during inference. This paper evaluates both how to generate correct graphs as well as how graphs can assist reasoning. We propose a collaborative approach to causal graph generation where we use LLMs to simulate experts that focus on specific semantic relations. The experts engage in multiple rounds of discussions which are then consolidated by a final expert. Then, to demonstrate the utility of causal graphs, we use them on multiple downstream applications, and also introduce a new explainable event prediction task that requires a causal chain of events in the explanation. These explanations are more informative and coherent than baseline generations. Finally, our overall approach not finetuned on any downstream task, achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art models on both forecasting and next event prediction tasks.

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves 2 times median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about 20 times more sample efficient than the successor representation and 1500 times more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.

Emerging Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) are moving beyond representation learning towards latent world models that support prediction, planning, and control. Yet their latent worlds naturally lack a human-interpretable interface. In this Perspective, we argue that as JEPA latents become internal states for prediction and action, interpretability must move beyond what they encode to how latent variables interact, evolve, and causally drive prediction. To this end, we envision a four-stage research agenda, involving Ground, Structure, Verify, and Act, to guide this shift toward actionable latent-world understanding. Within our framework, existing JEPA interpretability efforts provide early evidence for Ground, while systematic analysis of latent structure, causal verification, and intervention remains largely unexplored. Overall, this Perspective aims to call for a broader latent-world interpretability agenda that shifts attention from decoding representations toward understanding, validating, and acting on latent worlds.

Evaluations of LLM planning agents largely ask whether a task succeeds or a declared plan is followed. In strategic cyber-physical systems, a stronger question is whether the planning architecture remains appropriate after autonomous participants respond and physics constrains the outcome. We introduce a controlled, physics-grounded benchmark built around planning-induced control trajectories: the ordered planning operations and directives through which an execution architecture acts on other agents and the physical process. It implements predefined, sequential, hierarchical, and search executors in a smart-grid demand-response system with 40 heterogeneous prosumers and an independently simulated radial feeder. The LLM is bounded to typed policy declaration and short operator messages, while schedule construction, prosumer dynamics, and power flow remain explicit code. The protocol uses paired forced-mode counterfactuals, common random response draws, and event-level deadline feasibility. Three properties follow. Architecture materially changes outcomes: forced search is the oracle in all five baseline seeds. Execution fidelity needs more than mode agreement: objective substitution holds agreement at 1.0 while increasing voltage shortfall by 2.68x. A 144-scenario, 576-episode bank has feasible oracles from three of the four architectures. A prespecified stress-held-out ridge has mean regret 90.7 (95% interval [73.8, 108.6]) and no detectable value over fixed sequential; applying known deadline feasibility before quality prediction cuts regret to 29.0 and improves over fixed sequential by 61.1. An all-feasible ablation does not beat fixed search, localising the remaining challenge to within-feasible quality selection. A five-model extension separates stress-conditioned, state-blind, and invariant declarers; latency tails show that live feasibility should be treated probabilistically.

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) learn world models by predicting in representation space rather than reconstructing pixels, making them a natural backbone for latent model predictive control from offline demonstration logs. JEPA-style training optimizes short-horizon latent prediction, whereas planning requires a multi-step ranking of imagined futures by goal progress. Prior JEPA planners often inherit that ranking from embedding geometry, typically latent Euclidean distance, which arises as a byproduct of representation learning rather than as a progress cost mined from the logs. We propose temporal-distance JEPA (TD-JEPA), which retains the LeWM encoder--predictor backbone and mines a directed temporal cost from reward-free trajectories: same-trajectory step order supplies positive targets, cross-trajectory pairs act as heuristic negatives, and a rollout-consistency term matches the planner horizon. The mined supervision serves two roles: as the deployed planning cost when progress is topological, and as a representation signal that improves Euclidean planning when contact geometry dominates. Under locked evaluation, deploying the mined cost raises Two-Room success to 100.0% versus LeWM's 97.4%, while shared Euclidean planning on the same temporally trained checkpoint raises OGB-Cube by 14.2 points over LeWM and improves Push-T. Against LeWM and the concurrent RC-aux baseline under locked evaluation, TD-JEPA matches or exceeds both methods on every environment. Ablations show that the directed head, cross-trajectory negatives, and rollout consistency each contribute. TD-JEPA narrows the train--plan gap for JEPA world-model planners by discovering temporal progress structure in offline logs and co-designing cost form with plan-time deployment. Code is available at https://github.com/HKBU-KnowComp/TD-JEPA.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive reasoning abilities, but translating reasoning into actions in the real world remains challenging. In particular, it remains unclear how to complete a given task provably within a minimum number of interactions with the external environment, e.g., through an internal mechanism of reasoning. To this end, we propose a principled framework with provable regret guarantees to orchestrate reasoning and acting, which we call "reason for future, act for now" (RAFA). Specifically, we design a prompt template for reasoning that learns from the memory buffer and plans a future trajectory over a long horizon ("reason for future"). At each step, the LLM agent takes the initial action of the planned trajectory ("act for now"), stores the collected feedback in the memory buffer, and reinvokes the reasoning routine to replan the future trajectory from the new state. The key idea is to cast reasoning in LLMs as learning and planning in Bayesian adaptive Markov decision processes (MDPs). Correspondingly, we prompt LLMs to form an updated posterior of the unknown environment from the memory buffer (learning) and generate an optimal trajectory for multiple future steps that maximizes a value function (planning). The learning and planning subroutines are performed in an "in-context" manner to emulate the actor-critic update for MDPs. Our theoretical analysis proves that the novel combination of long-term reasoning and short-term acting achieves a T regret. In particular, the regret bound highlights an intriguing interplay between the prior knowledge obtained through pretraining and the uncertainty reduction achieved by reasoning and acting. Our empirical validation shows that it outperforms various existing frameworks and achieves nearly perfect scores on a few benchmarks.

LLM-for-time series (TS) methods typically treat time shallowly, injecting positional or prompt-based cues once at the input of a largely frozen decoder, which limits temporal reasoning as this information degrades through the layers. We introduce Temporal-Prior Conditioning (TPC), which elevates time to a first-class modality that conditions the model at multiple depths. TPC attaches a small set of learnable time series tokens to the patch stream; at selected layers these tokens cross-attend to temporal embeddings derived from compact, human-readable temporal descriptors encoded by the same frozen LLM, then feed temporal context back via self-attention. This disentangles time series signal and temporal information while maintaining a low parameter budget. We show that by training only the cross-attention modules and explicitly disentangling time series signal and temporal information, TPC consistently outperforms both full fine-tuning and shallow conditioning strategies, achieving state-of-the-art performance in long-term forecasting across diverse datasets. Code available at: https://github.com/fil-mp/Deep_tpc

The integration of Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models with World Models has gained increasing attention. One representative approach treats learned World Models as generative simulators, enabling policy optimization entirely within "imagination." However, when deployed as simulators for specific environments such as the LIBERO benchmark, existing World Models often suffer from poor generalization and long-horizon error accumulation. During closed-loop rollouts, these models are highly sensitive to initial-state perturbations; minor changes in color, illumination, and other visual factors can trigger cascading hallucinations, leading to severe blurriness or overexposure. Moreover, long-horizon error accumulation further degrades the quality and fidelity of predicted future states. These issues limit the reliability of World Models as simulators. To mitigate these problems, we propose Sword, a robust World Model framework. Our method introduces Structure-Guided Style Augmentation to disentangle the visual textures of interactive environments from task-relevant dynamics, thereby improving generalization. We further propose Dynamic Latent Bootstrapping, which maintains consistency between training and inference while keeping memory consumption low. Extensive experiments on the LIBERO benchmark show that our method significantly outperforms the baseline WoVR in terms of generalization, generation quality, robustness, fidelity, and the success rate of reinforcement-learning post-training for VLA models.

Real-time understanding of long video streams remains challenging for multimodal large language models (VLMs) due to redundant frame processing and rapid forgetting of past context. Existing streaming systems rely on fixed-interval decoding or cache pruning, which either produce repetitive outputs or discard crucial temporal information. We introduce Event-VStream, an event-aware framework that represents continuous video as a sequence of discrete, semantically coherent events. Our system detects meaningful state transitions by integrating motion, semantic, and predictive cues, and triggers language generation only at those boundaries. Each event embedding is consolidated into a persistent memory bank, enabling long-horizon reasoning while maintaining low latency. Across OVOBench-Realtime, and long-form Ego4D evaluations, Event-VStream achieves competitive performance. It improves over a VideoLLM-Online-8B baseline by +10.4 points on OVOBench-Realtime, achieves performance close to Flash-VStream-7B despite using only a general-purpose LLaMA-3-8B text backbone, and maintains around 70% GPT-5 win rate on 2-hour Ego4D streams.

World models enable model-based planning through learned latent dynamics, but imagined rollouts become unstable as the planning horizon grows or the dynamics distribution shifts. We argue that this instability reflects two missing structures in planner-facing latents: history-conditioned memory for approximate Markov completeness, and geometric organization that separates configuration, momentum, and task semantics. We propose HaM-World (HMW), a structured world model that decomposes the latent state into a canonical (q, p) subspace and a context subspace c, while using Mamba selective state-space memory as the history-conditioned input to the same latent dynamics. Within this interface, (q, p) evolves through an energy-derived Hamiltonian vector field plus learnable residual/control dynamics, while c captures semantic, dissipative, and non-conservative factors. This gives the planner a single latent state shared by dynamics prediction, reward/value estimation, imagined rollouts, and CEM action search. On four DeepMind Control Suite tasks, HaM-World reaches the highest Avg. AUC (117.9, +9.5%), reduces long-horizon rollout error to 45% of a strong baseline model, and wins 11/12 k in {3,5,7} MSE cells. Under 12 OOD perturbations spanning dynamics shifts, action delay, and observation masking, HaM-World achieves the highest return in every condition, with average OOD-return gains of 10.2% on Finger Spin and 13.6% on Reacher Easy. Mechanism diagnostics further show bounded action-free Hamiltonian-energy drift, structured energy variation under policy rollouts, and coherent control-induced energy transfer, supporting the intended Soft-Hamiltonian dynamics design.

Video predictive models are emerging as a powerful paradigm in robotics, offering a promising path toward task generalization, long-horizon planning, and flexible decision-making. However, prevailing approaches often operate on 2D video sequences, inherently lacking the 3D geometric understanding necessary for precise spatial reasoning and physical consistency. We introduce a Structured 4D Latent Predictive Model, which predicts the evolution of a scene's 3D structure in a structured latent space conditioned on observations and textual instructions. Our representation encodes the scene holistically and can be decoded into diverse 3D formats, enabling a more complete and 3D consistent scene understanding. This structured 4D latent predictive model serves as a planner, generating future scenes that are translated into executable actions by a goal-conditioned inverse dynamics module. Experiments demonstrate that our model generates futures with strong visual quality, substantially better 3D consistency and multi-view coherence compared to state-of-the-art video-based planners. Consequently, our full planning pipeline achieves superior performance on complex manipulation tasks, exhibits robust generalization to novel visual conditions, and proves effective on real-world robotic platforms. Our website is available at https://structured-4d-model.github.io/.

Generative world models provide robots with predictive models of how the world evolves under interaction, with growing potential for simulation, planning, policy evaluation, and robot learning. Beyond clip-level future prediction, a unified generative formulation should relate actions to consequences, support flexible horizons and continuous interaction, and enable reward-driven optimization. We introduce WALL-SS, a world model that generates visual futures through Scale-wise autoregressive Scaling, enabling action-controllable and long-horizon robotic simulation. WALL-SS represents embodied trajectories as causal sequences of temporally interleaved observations and actions, making action-dependent state transitions explicit while naturally supporting variable-length generation, streaming extension through reusable causal states, and direct optimization through sequence probabilities. To make this formulation effective over long horizons, we generate each future observation in a coarse-to-fine manner and develop three complementary components within the same hierarchy. Action-conditioned next-scale prediction injects scale-aligned action representations to improve action-future coupling and model both successful and failed behaviors. Scale-compressed long-horizon memory retains recent interactions at fine resolution while compressing distant observations and actions, with scale-wise dream forcing enhancing robustness to self-generated context. Finally, on-policy alignment optimizes autoregressive visual dynamics with action-following and long-term consistency rewards while preserving the pretrained visual distribution. Experiments show that WALL-SS improves action following and trajectory accuracy, supports coherent minute-long streaming rollout under bounded memory, and consistently benefits from on-policy alignment in reducing action drift and long-horizon inconsistency.

World-action models (WAMs) couple future visual-state prediction with action generation. By adapting video generators or image-editing models pretrained at scale, a prominent line of recent WAMs inherits both predictive knowledge and the models in which it was learned. We ask whether a predictive visual latent space induced by large-scale predictive pretraining can instead provide a sufficient foundation for effective WAM learning without inheriting a complete pretrained visual generative model. To answer this question, we introduce V-JEPA Policy, a simple framework that builds a WAM on the latent space of a frozen V-JEPA 2.1 encoder. An instruction-conditioned future-latent predictor and a flow-matching action expert are jointly learned from scratch in a single downstream stage, with the predictor's future-informed context key--value states conditioning action generation. With 0.9B total parameters, of which 0.6B are trainable, V-JEPA Policy achieves competitive performance with representative WAM and vision-language-action baselines across LIBERO, LIBERO-Plus, and RoboCasa-GR1. Comparing visual foundations under the same downstream framework and training budget identifies V-JEPA latents as more effective than the discriminative, reconstructive, and video-understanding-oriented alternatives, particularly under distribution shifts. Beyond task-specific learning, pretraining the predictor on DROID video--instruction pairs without action labels and adapting it into a WAM yields substantial gains in downstream control and out-of-distribution generalization. Together, these findings establish predictive visual latents as a foundation for effective WAM learning from task-specific demonstrations and for transferring future-modeling knowledge acquired from broader in-the-wild videos. Our code is available at https://github.com/breez3young/VJEPA-Policy.

A fundamental aspect for building intelligent autonomous robots that can assist humans in their daily lives is the construction of rich environmental representations. While advances in semantic scene representations have enriched robotic scene understanding, current approaches lack a connection between spatial features and dynamic events; e.g., connecting the blue mug to the event washing a mug. In this work, we introduce the event-grounding graph (EGG), a framework grounding event interactions to spatial features of a scene. This representation allows robots to perceive, reason, and respond to complex spatio-temporal queries. Experiments using real robotic data demonstrate EGG's capability to retrieve relevant information and respond accurately to human inquiries concerning the environment and events within. Furthermore, the EGG framework's source code and evaluation dataset are released as open-source at: https://github.com/aalto-intelligent-robotics/EGG.

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate temporal reasoning behavior under progressively richer informational settings. TemporalBench adopts a four-tier task taxonomy that examines historical structure interpretation, context-free forecasting, contextual temporal reasoning, and event-conditioned prediction across four real-world domains: retail, healthcare, energy, and physical systems. By controlling access to future targets and contextual information, the benchmark enables a diagnostic analysis of whether models can correctly interpret temporal patterns, align them with external context, and adapt predictions when conditions change. Extensive baseline experiments show that strong numerical forecasting accuracy does not reliably translate into robust contextual or event-aware temporal reasoning; instead, existing agent frameworks exhibit fragmented strengths and systematic failure modes that remain largely hidden under forecasting-only benchmarks. The TemporalBench dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TemporalBench, and we additionally provide a public leaderboard at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Melady/TemporalBench_Leaderboard.

Embodied policies typically map current observations directly to actions, leaving candidate-action consequences implicit. World models provide predictive supervision, representations, or external simulation, but rarely let a policy inspect the imagined consequence of its own proposal before acting. We introduce ω-EVA, a latent interactive world model that realizes an Envision--Verify--Act loop for embodied action generation. Its three-stage framework learns action-conditioned latent dynamics, trains a language-conditioned flow policy on dynamics-aware visual representations, and feeds the policy's proposal back through the world model. A tri-branch refiner jointly reasons over the current state, proposal-conditioned future, and proposed action to produce the final action chunk. Because consequence reasoning remains in latent feature space, ω-EVA avoids generating future videos at inference. Evaluations across diverse single-arm, bimanual, long-horizon, and perturbed simulation settings show that the complete interaction pipeline consistently improves the proposal policy, while latent diagnostics indicate meaningful action-conditioned future structure. With approximately 1.2B parameters and no additional robot-data pretraining, ω-EVA demonstrates a compact and competitive performance--scale--data trade-off, making the world model an active action-feedback module rather than a passive predictor.

World models are transitioning from passive visual generators to foundational, operational infrastructure for Physical AI: they must natively acquire world knowledge from heterogeneous experience, maintain persistent states over long horizons, and execute efficiently within real deployment constraints. We introduce Kairos, a native world model stack designed around these requirements. (1) Kairos learns the world by pioneering a Native Pre-training Paradigm governed by a Cross-Embodiment Data Curriculum, which organizes open-world videos, human behavioral data, and robot interactions into a progressive developmental pathway. (2) Kairos maintains the world by unified world understanding, generation, and prediction within a Native Unified Architecture equipped with Hybrid Linear Temporal Attention, where sliding-window attention captures local dynamics, dilated sliding windows capture mid-range dependencies, and gated linear attention maintains persistent global memory. We establish formal theoretical bounds demonstrating that this temporal factorization strictly limits error accumulation, mathematically guaranteeing state propagation across extended horizons. (3) Kairos runs the world by incorporating a Deployment-Aware System Co-Design to support low-latency rollout generation on server and consumer-grade hardware for real-world observation-action-feedback loops. Experiments on embodied world-model, long-horizon, and action-policy benchmarks show that Kairos achieves top level performance while offering a strong efficiency-capability trade-off. Together, these results position Kairos as a cohesive operational foundation for future self-evolving physical intelligence.

World-action models have emerged as a promising paradigm for robot manipulation, jointly modeling visual scene dynamics and actions to inject physical priors into policy learning. However, existing world-action models couple world prediction and action execution at the same temporal resolution, forcing the world branch to model near-term frame variations that are redundant and weakly informative. We posit that strictly binding world prediction and action execution to the same temporal rhythm may underutilize the potential of the video branch for embodied control. Therefore, we propose AHA-WAM, an Asynchronous Horizon-Adaptive World-Action Model built on a dual Diffusion Transformer (DiT) architecture that reorganizes world-action modeling around this temporal asymmetry. AHA-WAM instantiates the video DiT as a low-frequency world planner that maintains rolling key-value memory over past observations and exposes reusable layerwise latent context encoding long-horizon scene evolution, while a high-frequency action DiT executes short action chunks in closed loop by querying this context through layerwise joint attention. To support asynchronous execution, we introduce horizon-adaptive offset training and Observation-Guided Video-Context Routing (OVCR), which together let the action expert exploit long-horizon world context while remaining responsive to real-time execution state without rerunning the video DiT. Experiments on RoboTwin and real-world manipulation tasks show that AHA-WAM achieves state-of-the-art performance without any robot-data pretraining, attaining 92.80% average success on RoboTwin and 78.3% success across 4 real-world tasks, while reaching 24.17 Hz closed-loop control with a 4.59x speedup over Fast-WAM.

In remote control systems, transmitting large data volumes (e.g. video feeds) from wireless sensors to faraway controllers is challenging when the uplink channel capacity is limited (e.g. RedCap devices or massive wireless sensor networks). Furthermore, the controllers often only need the information-rich components of the original data. To address this, we propose a Time-Series Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (TS-JEPA) and a semantic actor trained through self-supervised learning. This approach harnesses TS-JEPA's semantic representation power and predictive capabilities by capturing spatio-temporal correlations in the source data. We leverage this to optimize uplink channel utilization, while the semantic actor calculates control commands directly from the encoded representations, rather than from the original data. We test our model through multiple parallel instances of the well-known inverted cart-pole scenario, where the approach is validated through the maximization of stability under constrained uplink channel capacity.

Multivariate time series forecasting is essential in domains such as finance, transportation, climate, and energy. However, existing patch-based methods typically adopt fixed-length segmentation, overlooking the heterogeneity of local temporal dynamics and the decoding heterogeneity of forecasting. Such designs lose details in information-dense regions, introduce redundancy in stable segments, and fail to capture the distinct complexities of short-term and long-term horizons. We propose TimeMosaic, a forecasting framework that aims to address temporal heterogeneity. TimeMosaic employs adaptive patch embedding to dynamically adjust granularity according to local information density, balancing motif reuse with structural clarity while preserving temporal continuity. In addition, it introduces segment-wise decoding that treats each prediction horizon as a related subtask and adapts to horizon-specific difficulty and information requirements, rather than applying a single uniform decoder. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that TimeMosaic delivers consistent improvements over existing methods, and our model trained on the large-scale corpus with 321 billion observations achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art TSFMs.

Recent work has demonstrated the effectiveness of formulating decision making as a supervised learning problem on offline-collected trajectories. However, the benefits of performing sequence modeling on trajectory data is not yet clear. In this work we investigate if sequence modeling has the capability to condense trajectories into useful representations that can contribute to policy learning. To achieve this, we adopt a two-stage framework that first summarizes trajectories with sequence modeling techniques, and then employs these representations to learn a policy along with a desired goal. This design allows many existing supervised offline RL methods to be considered as specific instances of our framework. Within this framework, we introduce Goal-Conditioned Predicitve Coding (GCPC), an approach that brings powerful trajectory representations and leads to performant policies. We conduct extensive empirical evaluations on AntMaze, FrankaKitchen and Locomotion environments, and observe that sequence modeling has a significant impact on some decision making tasks. In addition, we demonstrate that GCPC learns a goal-conditioned latent representation about the future, which serves as an "implicit planner", and enables competitive performance on all three benchmarks.

World models paired with model predictive control (MPC) can be trained offline on large-scale datasets of expert trajectories and enable generalization to a wide range of planning tasks at inference time. Compared to traditional MPC procedures, which rely on slow search algorithms or on iteratively solving optimization problems exactly, gradient-based planning offers a computationally efficient alternative. However, the performance of gradient-based planning has thus far lagged behind that of other approaches. In this paper, we propose improved methods for training world models that enable efficient gradient-based planning. We begin with the observation that although a world model is trained on a next-state prediction objective, it is used at test-time to instead estimate a sequence of actions. The goal of our work is to close this train-test gap. To that end, we propose train-time data synthesis techniques that enable significantly improved gradient-based planning with existing world models. At test time, our approach outperforms or matches the classical gradient-free cross-entropy method (CEM) across a variety of object manipulation and navigation tasks in 10% of the time budget.

Deep Research agents rely on long-horizon reasoning and iterative tool use to solve complex information-seeking tasks. However, adaptive decision-making over these trajectories remains challenging, as agents may stop prematurely when further evidence is needed, continue unnecessarily after sufficient evidence has been gathered, or fail to redirect unproductive trajectories. Existing solutions either require costly model retraining and dense turn-level supervision, or rely on heuristic control rules that are not directly optimized for downstream research utility. This motivates a lightweight, utility-aware alternative for Deep Research control. We formulate adaptive rerouting in long-horizon Deep Research as a state-conditioned trajectory correction problem. Based on this view, we introduce RIVO, a lightweight plug-in framework for adaptive trajectory correction. The agent estimates its research state from lightweight signals and determines whether trajectory redirection is needed. Once triggered, the plug-in modifies the Host token logits to steer generation toward a more promising research direction. Theoretical analysis shows that, under a value-alignment condition and bounded local curvature, a sufficiently small logit intervention can locally improve expected downstream research utility. We further construct BrowseCore, a curated dataset with a paired local corpus, for efficient and controlled Deep Research experimentation. Building on this resource, the plug-in is trained from downstream outcomes, enabling it to learn corrections that improve subsequent research and final task performance. Extensive experiments across multiple Deep Research benchmarks and control settings demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, showing that lightweight logit intervention can improve long-horizon research without retraining the underlying Host model.

Memory remains a critical bottleneck for long-horizon robotic manipulation, as standard Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies often fail when task-relevant cues become occluded or unobservable over time. While existing memory-augmented methods utilize historical context, they either suffer from severe information bottlenecks, incur high latency via decoupled dual systems, or rely on unselective buffers that accumulate massive visual redundancies. To address these limitations, we introduce EventVLA, an end-to-end framework founded on the concept of sparse visual evidence memory that comprises two core components: foundational visual anchors to retain initial and short-term contexts, and a dynamic Keyframe Evidence Memory (KEM) module. Specifically, KEM directly predicts future keyframe probabilities from the VLA's latent embeddings to autonomously capture and store sparse, task-critical visual events. This foresight-driven mechanism empowers the policy to dynamically evaluate the future causal utility of current observations, preserving transient visual evidence before it becomes unobservable. Furthermore, we propose RoboTwin-MeM, a diagnostic benchmark specifically designed to evaluate non-Markovian manipulation tasks with interactive visual evidence. Extensive evaluations show that across 17 memory-requiring simulation tasks and 4 real-world bimanual tasks, EventVLA achieves an average success rate improvement of +40% over state-of-the-art memory-augmented VLAs.

Modern data acquisition routinely produce massive amounts of event sequence data in various domains, such as social media, healthcare, and financial markets. These data often exhibit complicated short-term and long-term temporal dependencies. However, most of the existing recurrent neural network based point process models fail to capture such dependencies, and yield unreliable prediction performance. To address this issue, we propose a Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model, which leverages the self-attention mechanism to capture long-term dependencies and meanwhile enjoys computational efficiency. Numerical experiments on various datasets show that THP outperforms existing models in terms of both likelihood and event prediction accuracy by a notable margin. Moreover, THP is quite general and can incorporate additional structural knowledge. We provide a concrete example, where THP achieves improved prediction performance for learning multiple point processes when incorporating their relational information.

Accurate long-horizon vessel trajectory prediction remains challenging due to compounded uncertainty from complex navigation behaviors and environmental factors. Existing methods often struggle to maintain global directional consistency, leading to drifting or implausible trajectories when extrapolated over long time horizons. To address this issue, we propose a semantic-key-point-conditioned trajectory modeling framework, in which future trajectories are predicted by conditioning on a high-level Next Key Point (NKP) that captures navigational intent. This formulation decomposes long-horizon prediction into global semantic decision-making and local motion modeling, effectively restricting the support of future trajectories to semantically feasible subsets. To efficiently estimate the NKP prior from historical observations, we adopt a pretrain-finetune strategy. Extensive experiments on real-world AIS data demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, particularly for long travel durations, directional accuracy, and fine-grained trajectory prediction.

A world model is an AI system that simulates how an environment evolves under actions, enabling planning through imagined futures rather than reactive perception. Current world models, however, suffer from visual conflation: the mistaken assumption that high-fidelity video generation implies an understanding of physical and causal dynamics. We show that while modern models excel at predicting pixels, they frequently violate invariant constraints, fail under intervention, and break down in safety-critical decision-making. This survey argues that visual realism is an unreliable proxy for world understanding. Instead, effective world models must encode causal structure, respect domain-specific constraints, and remain stable over long horizons. We propose a reframing of world models as actionable simulators rather than visual engines, emphasizing structured 4D interfaces, constraint-aware dynamics, and closed-loop evaluation. Using medical decision-making as an epistemic stress test, where trial-and-error is impossible and errors are irreversible, we demonstrate that a world model's value is determined not by how realistic its rollouts appear, but by its ability to support counterfactual reasoning, intervention planning, and robust long-horizon foresight.

In the past years, predictive process monitoring (PPM) techniques based on artificial neural networks have evolved as a method to monitor the future behavior of business processes. Existing approaches mostly focus on interpreting the processes as sequences, so-called traces, and feeding them to neural architectures designed to operate on sequential data such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) or transformers. In this study, we investigate an alternative way to perform PPM: by transforming each process in its directly-follows-graph (DFG) representation we are able to apply graph neural networks (GNNs) for the prediction tasks. By this, we aim to develop models that are more suitable for complex processes that are long and contain an abundance of loops. In particular, we present different ways to create DFG representations depending on the particular GNN we use. The tested GNNs range from classical node-based to novel edge-based architectures. Further, we investigate the possibility of using multi-graphs. By these steps, we aim to design graph representations that minimize the information loss when transforming traces into graphs.

Long-horizon reasoning requires an agentic runtime that can persist when evidence supports its current approach and pivot when measurements reveal failure, hidden constraints, or a misspecified objective. We present Argus, a persistent, self-evolving runtime in which Manager, Planner, Engineer, and Reviewer execute bounded missions over durable project state. Argus separates stable user intent from operational objectives, constraints, and verification criteria, and admits memories, skills, procedures, verifiers, routing decisions, and rejected routes only after role-owned review and, when available, task-native verification. Model weights remain fixed; self-evolution occurs through persistent runtime state and control policy, with autonomous execution between operator-owned escalation points. Across seven GPT-5.5 benchmark arenas, Argus achieves about 78% on SWE-Bench Pro versus 59% for Direct Copilot while using 1.41 times the aggregate tokens. After verification-gated self-evolution, mature SWE-Bench waves use 21% fewer solve-input tokens and 15% less active workflow time per task than startup waves, while recording 34 verifier recoveries and 22 strict review-loop rescues. Argus also reaches 76.8% on AARRI-Bench and a 28.0-point gap on mathematical data synthesis, with competitive GPU-kernel and language-model-training results. Beyond benchmarks, an optimized RWKV6 kernel was merged upstream; a multi-day mathematics campaign retained falsified routes and proof-backed frontier updates; and six paper pipelines completed 254 missions with 16 stage rollbacks. These results show that a fixed-weight, self-evolving harness can revise, recover, and accumulate verified approaches while producing structured trajectories for future supervised and reinforcement learning.

Associative memory has long underpinned the design of sequential models. Beyond recall, humans reason by projecting future states and selecting goal-directed actions, a capability that modern language models increasingly require but do not natively encode. While prior work uses reinforcement learning or test-time training, planning remains external to the model architecture. We formulate reasoning as optimal control and introduce the Test-Time Control (TTC) layer, which performs finite-horizon LQR planning over latent states at inference time, represents a value function within neural architectures, and leverages it as the nested objective to enable planning before prediction. To ensure scalability, we derive a hardware-efficient LQR solver based on a symplectic formulation and implement it as a fused CUDA kernel, enabling parallel execution with minimal overhead. Integrated as an adapter into pretrained LLMs, TTC layers improve mathematical reasoning performance by up to +27.8% on MATH-500 and 2-3x Pass@8 improvements on AMC and AIME, demonstrating that embedding optimal control as an architectural component provides an effective and scalable mechanism for reasoning beyond test-time training.

Semantic occupancy has emerged as a powerful representation in world models for its ability to capture rich spatial semantics. However, most existing occupancy world models rely on static and fixed embeddings or grids, which inherently limit the flexibility of perception. Moreover, their ``in-place classification" over grids exhibits a potential misalignment with the dynamic and continuous nature of real scenarios. In this paper, we propose SparseWorld, a novel 4D occupancy world model that is flexible, adaptive, and efficient, powered by sparse and dynamic queries. We propose a Range-Adaptive Perception module, in which learnable queries are modulated by the ego vehicle states and enriched with temporal-spatial associations to enable extended-range perception. To effectively capture the dynamics of the scene, we design a State-Conditioned Forecasting module, which replaces classification-based forecasting with regression-guided formulation, precisely aligning the dynamic queries with the continuity of the 4D environment. In addition, We specifically devise a Temporal-Aware Self-Scheduling training strategy to enable smooth and efficient training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SparseWorld achieves state-of-the-art performance across perception, forecasting, and planning tasks. Comprehensive visualizations and ablation studies further validate the advantages of SparseWorld in terms of flexibility, adaptability, and efficiency.

Endowing robot policies with anticipatory capabilities has proven effective in improving control performance. However, existing methods predominantly rely on explicit supervision derived from future observations, in either pixel or latent space, at the cost of additional architectural and computational complexity. Departing from explicit future supervision, we ask whether such foresight can be elicited directly from the action signal. To this end, we propose AdaPolicy, an Action-driven anticipatory policy framework that shapes future-aware representations via cascaded next-chunk prediction. Specifically, an Online Action Head jointly produces the current action chunk and an evolved latent state. Building on this state, a cascaded Unrolled Action Head forecasts the next chunk, and the resulting loss flows back through the evolved state to instill implicit foresight into the online policy. Importantly, this training-only unroll requires no future-observation encoding, keeping AdaPolicy lightweight to train with zero inference-time overhead. Experiments on MetaWorld, RoboTwin 2.0, LIBERO, and real-world deployments demonstrate consistent gains across diverse settings, including up to 14 percentage points on millimeter-precision tasks such as earphone assembly and shoelace threading. More details and visualizations are available at https://teee111.github.io/AdaPolicy/{https://teee111.github.io/AdaPolicy/}.

Unified models for robot manipulation aim to equip one policy with both the semantic priors of pretrained VLMs and the physical dynamics learned through future prediction. In practice, existing designs tend to erode the semantics of the pretrained backbone, suffer interference among heterogeneous objectives, and learn future prediction from scratch in pixel space, leaving the dynamics priors of pretrained video generators unexploited. We present InternVLA-A1.5, which builds the policy on a native VLM backbone that keeps training on VQA and subtask prediction, and attaches a lightweight unified expert for continuous action generation. Future prediction is recast as a latent-querying problem, where a small set of learnable foresight tokens condenses the task-relevant future into a compact latent code under the supervision of a frozen pretrained video generation model, so the policy inherits world-model dynamics priors without ever learning pixel-level generation. The video branch is discarded at inference, keeping real-time control. Pretrained on 1.2M robot episodes and 3M multimodal samples, InternVLA-A1.5 achieves the best overall results on all six simulation benchmarks. In the real world, the preserved semantics deliver the strongest compositional generalization on held-out instruction bindings, and the two designs together sustain long-horizon execution.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Process model forecasting (PMF) aims to predict the process model that will characterize a future period, thereby providing a process-level view of how behavior is expected to evolve. Existing PMF methods, however, forecast directly-follows graphs, which cannot explicitly represent concurrency. We extend PMF to causal nets by forecasting time series of relation and binding counts and using these forecasts to reconstruct future process models with AND/XOR semantics. To evaluate the resulting models, we introduce a protocol that accounts for partial traces and constructs the workflow nets required for conformance checking. Experiments on four event logs show that the forecasted models achieve conformance levels close to those of models re-mined from observations in the corresponding future windows. They also outperform static discovery baselines, which retain high precision on the structurally stable log but exhibit substantial precision losses on the other three logs. Filtering infrequent bindings improves most conformance metrics, although it also removes much of the concurrent behavior captured by the models.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

AI agents are being increasingly deployed in dynamic, open-ended environments that require adapting to new information as it arrives. To efficiently measure this capability for realistic use-cases, we propose building grounded simulations that replay real-world events in the order they occurred. We build FutureSim, where agents forecast world events beyond their knowledge cutoff while interacting with a chronological replay of the world: real news articles arriving and questions resolving over the simulated period. We evaluate frontier agents in their native harness, testing their ability to predict world events over a three-month period from January to March 2026. FutureSim reveals a clear separation in their capabilities, with the best agent's accuracy being 25%, and many having worse Brier skill score than making no prediction at all. Through careful ablations, we show how FutureSim offers a realistic setting to study emerging research directions like long-horizon test-time adaptation, search, memory, and reasoning about uncertainty. Overall, we hope our benchmark design paves the way to measure AI progress on open-ended adaptation spanning long time-horizons in the real world.

Dense video captioning aims to generate temporally grounded descriptions of video events, benefiting both event-level video understanding and generation. In this domain, autoregressive video large language models have emerged as a prevalent paradigm due to their strong generative and cross-modal modeling capacity. However, generating dense captions under the token-by-token paradigm severely limits inference efficiency and hinders scalability as video length and event density increase. In this work, we propose a parallelized autoregressive framework that not only improves generation efficiency but also enhances temporally grounded captioning performance. Our key insight is to exploit the weak local dependencies across temporally distinct events to restructure the causal dependency graph, thereby enabling lossless parallel generation. Specifically, tokens with weak cross-event dependencies can be decoded in parallel, while tightly coupled tokens within each event retain sequential decoding to preserve local semantic coherence. To realize this insight, we introduce two key components for lossless parallel decoding: (1) a latent global planning mechanism that automatically learns the event-level structure and produces compact tokens encoding global inter-event causality while adaptively aggregating event-level audio-visual semantics, guiding subsequent dependency restructuring and parallel decoding; and (2) an event-factorized parallel decoding mechanism that effectively balances local focus with global inter-event awareness. Experiments on various benchmarks demonstrate the clear advantage of our approach in both efficiency and performance in omni-modal event grounding and captioning. Project website: https://github.com/showlab/PadCaptioner.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information. Yet evaluating whether agents genuinely forecast requires more than final-answer accuracy: a model may be correct by recalling memorized training facts, citing fabricated evidence, or producing an unsupported causal story. We present WorldReasoner, an evaluation framework for temporally valid event forecasting. Each task gives an agent a resolved forecasting question, a simulated forecast date, and access only to evidence available before that date; after resolution, the framework scores the submitted probability, cited evidence, and optional causal event graph. WorldReasoner reports three complementary axes: outcome quality against resolved answers, evidence quality over cited sources, and reasoning quality against post-resolution hindsight graphs. The benchmark is built by an agentic construction pipeline that generates forecasting questions, collects time-stamped evidence, and builds hindsight reference graphs at scale, yielding 345 resolved tasks derived from 14,141 articles with graphs covering 8,087 extracted events. Across six controlled agent settings, temporally valid retrieval is the strongest driver of outcome accuracy; causal graph construction improves key-event recovery; and correct graph-enabled forecasts are more strongly grounded in key events and relevant sources, yet agents still struggle to convert grounded evidence into calibrated probabilities.

Long-horizon agentic reasoning requires large language models to act over long interaction histories containing thoughts, tool calls, observations, and partial conclusions. The challenge is not merely that these histories grow long, but that information needed for the current decision may be scattered across distant steps and only become relevant later. Existing approaches address this difficulty by truncating the interaction history, compressing it into shorter surrogates, or retrieving selected parts of it for reuse, but they do not explicitly model how access to past interaction should adapt to the agent's evolving state. We instead cast long-horizon reasoning as a problem of state-adaptive memory. To this end, we propose State-Adaptive Memory~(SAM), a standalone framework that consolidates ongoing interaction into compact memory cues while preserving raw trajectory pages for intent-driven recall. These cues are not treated as replacements for history; rather, they serve as lightweight handles that allow the agent to reconstruct temporally distant information according to its current needs, without retraining the underlying backbone. We further optimize the memory module through expert-guided supervision and reinforcement learning, aligning it with trajectory-level utility. Across BrowseComp, BrowseComp-ZH, WideSearch, and HLE, SAM consistently outperforms strong baselines over diverse agent backbones. Our results suggest that explicit memory modeling provides a simple and effective foundation for long-horizon agentic reasoning.

Predictive process monitoring (PPM) leverages event logs to forecast the future of running process instances, for instance, predicting the next activity, the remaining time until case completion, or the time to the next event. While PPM research in recent years has been dominated by deep sequence models trained from scratch, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, foundation-model approaches---particularly large language models (LLMs)---are increasingly explored for PPM. At the same time, tabular foundation models with in-context learning capabilities offer a promising alternative but have not yet been systematically benchmarked for PPM. Thus, it remains unclear whether classical sequence-based models remain competitive in this evolving landscape. This paper compares the three modeling paradigms both conceptually and empirically through a controlled benchmark across multiple datasets and prediction tasks. The results show that sequence models consistently perform best for next activity prediction, whereas tabular foundation models are competitive on temporal tasks, with LLMs usually lagging behind despite higher cost.

Agent decisions depend on empirical relationships that deployment observations reveal and task descriptions alone may leave unresolved. We introduce Decoupled Predictive Decision Making (DPDM), an architecture that formulates heterogeneous agent decisions as conditional prediction with a shared pretrained learner. Language models provide semantic representations of current and historical records, while a general-purpose conditional predictor predicts task-defined targets from the represented evidence. Pretraining supplies reusable inference capability; deployment evidence instantiates problem-specific predictions without updating either model's neural parameters. Tool judgments, candidate preferences, and reasoning assessments share an evidence-and-query interface, with predictions mapped to choices by a decision rule. This architecture establishes complementary sources of agent capability: semantic knowledge acquired through language pretraining and empirical inference acquired through structured-data pretraining. A single frozen LimiX-2 predictor serves all five task categories. With Qwen3.5-27B as the semantic encoder, DPDM raises mean accuracy across 50 benchmarks from 78.80% with few-shot prompting to 84.92% under their respective evaluated history budgets, and reaches 82.33% with identical histories and queries. On ToolPRMBench's BFCL and ToolSandbox tasks, absolute accuracy gains are 34.26% and 28.87%, respectively, at the methods' respective evaluated history budgets. Accuracy improves as history grows. With identical imbalanced histories, mean balanced accuracy improves by an absolute 14.51% across five reasoning-step assessment tasks and four encoders. DPDM makes learning from experience an independently improvable foundation-model capability, creating a shared route for advances in conditional prediction to improve decisions across agent tasks.

Multimodal lifelong navigation requires an agent to autonomously explore unseen environments while sequentially completing navigation tasks specified by object categories, language descriptions, or reference images. Existing methods primarily accomplish these tasks by constructing state-centric semantic scene graphs. By treating scene graphs as persistent repositories of semantic observations, these methods struggle to distinguish similar instances, jointly represent semantic targets and exploration frontiers, and effectively exploit navigation memory and trajectory experience. To address these limitations, we propose Spatio-Temporal Event Graph Navigation (STEGNav), a training-free framework that extends conventional scene graphs into spatio-temporal event graphs along complementary spatial and temporal axes. The spatial axis performs query-conditioned instance grounding and jointly represents semantic targets and occupancy-aware exploration frontiers characterized by reachability, path cost, and exploration utility. The temporal axis employs trajectory-aware dual-window memory to retain recent decision--trajectory events and verified cross-subtask navigation outcomes. A VLM-based navigation agent reasons over the resulting spatio-temporal event graph and selects either a target instance or an exploration frontier as its next navigation goal. STEGNav achieves 66.3% SR and 39.7 SPL on GOAT-Bench, as well as SR scores of 64.0% and 69.4% on HM3Dv1 and HM3Dv2, respectively. Ablation studies and error analyses validate the complementary effects of the two axes, demonstrating that event-driven spatio-temporal representations improve navigation reliability and cross-subtask experience reuse.

Evaluating neural network performance is critical to deep neural network design but a costly procedure. Neural predictors provide an efficient solution by treating architectures as samples and learning to estimate their performance on a given task. However, existing predictors are task-dependent, predominantly estimating neural network performance on image classification benchmarks. They are also search-space dependent; each predictor is designed to make predictions for a specific architecture search space with predefined topologies and set of operations. In this paper, we propose a novel All-in-One Predictor (AIO-P), which aims to pretrain neural predictors on architecture examples from multiple, separate computer vision (CV) task domains and multiple architecture spaces, and then transfer to unseen downstream CV tasks or neural architectures. We describe our proposed techniques for general graph representation, efficient predictor pretraining and knowledge infusion techniques, as well as methods to transfer to downstream tasks/spaces. Extensive experimental results show that AIO-P can achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Spearman's Rank Correlation (SRCC) below 1% and above 0.5, respectively, on a breadth of target downstream CV tasks with or without fine-tuning, outperforming a number of baselines. Moreover, AIO-P can directly transfer to new architectures not seen during training, accurately rank them and serve as an effective performance estimator when paired with an algorithm designed to preserve performance while reducing FLOPs.

Latent world models predict the consequences of actions, but accurate prediction does not guarantee that latent distance reflects which candidate will execute successfully. We identify a decision-local prediction gap: among the few futures competing for execution, a candidate predicted closer to the goal can produce a worse realized outcome than an available alternative. We introduce D-JEPA, a decision-aligned latent world model that learns decision-relevant relations among candidate futures from executed outcomes. A bounded, permutation-equivariant operator jointly reasons over goal-relative predictive features and ordinal evidence, refining pretrained predictive geometry where action choices are most consequential. Restricted predictor adaptation and a shared ordinal interface extend this alignment across complementary predictive geometries. D-JEPA further realizes the learned decision structure in JEPA-compatible future representations, enabling deployment through native latent-distance planning. Evaluations across latent control, manipulation, pretrained action-producing models, physical robots and autonomous driving demonstrate improved action selection, including 87.89% success on PushT, a 15.04-point average gain on RoboTwin, and a 17-point gain on physical robot tasks. These results establish decision-relevant relational structure as a direct bridge between predictive world modeling and effective control.

Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) require a good model for the controlled process. In this paper I infer inductive biases about a physical system. I use these biases to derive a new neural network architecture that can model this real system that has noise and inertia. The main inductive biases exploited here are: the delayed impact of some inputs on the system and the separability between the temporal component and how the inputs interact to produce the output of a system. The inputs are independently delayed using shifted convolutional kernels. Feature interactions are modelled using a fully connected network that does not have access to temporal information. The available data and the problem setup allow the usage of Self Supervised Learning in order to train the models. The baseline architecture is an Attention based Reccurent network adapted to work with MPC like inputs. The proposed networks are faster, better at exploiting larger data volumes and are almost as good as baseline networks in terms of prediction performance. The proposed architecture family called Delay can be used in a real scenario to control systems with delayed responses with respect to its controls or inputs. Ablation studies show that the presence of delay kernels are vital to obtain any learning in proposed architecture. Code and some experimental data are available online.

Action-conditioned world models have emerged as a promising paradigm for robot learning, offering a scalable alternative to costly real-world experimentation by generating action-consistent video rollouts. However, persistent world modeling remains challenging in manipulation: frequent end-effector occlusions and rapid wrist-camera motion make the current observation insufficient for predicting future views, causing models to forget or hallucinate scene details seen in earlier frames. Existing memory retrieval strategies often fail to identify informative history in dynamic manipulation scenarios. To address this limitation, we propose Mem-World, a memory-augmented multi-view action-conditioned world model. At its core, we present W-VMem, a 4D wrist-view-centered surfel-indexed memory that anchors historical observations to temporally evolving surface elements. By explicitly modeling when and where scene elements are observed, W-VMem enables geometry-aware retrieval of relevant history frames conditioned on future actions. During generation, relevant history frames are selected via surfel-based rendering and scoring, providing informative and non-redundant context for prediction. Extensive experiments show that Mem-World generates persistent rollouts in complex manipulation scenarios, enables more reliable policy evaluation than Ctrl-World, improving the Pearson correlation with real-world performance by 14.5\%, and supports effective policy improvement through synthetic data generation, increasing success rates from 58\% to 72\% on long-horizon tasks.

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs), including recent LeWorldModel (LeWM), have become a promising foundation for reconstruction-free visual world models. For visual planning, however, LeWM evaluates candidate action sequences by repeatedly applying a local one-step latent transition model. This autoregressive rollout makes planning computationally expensive and exposes the predicted trajectory to accumulated latent errors as the horizon grows. We propose Fast LeWorldModel (Fast-LeWM), a fast latent world model that replaces repeated local rollout with action-prefix prediction. Given the current latent and a candidate action sequence, Fast-LeWM encodes its prefixes and predicts the future latents reached after executing those prefixes in parallel. By making action prefixes the basic prediction unit, Fast-LeWM directly models action effects accumulated to different extents over multiple horizons. This prefix-level supervision forces the model to learn how states continuously evolve under different action prefixes, rather than only fitting one-step state transitions. During planning, the predictor can use the last prefix token from the encoded action sequence to evaluate the corresponding future latent without explicitly rolling through each intermediate imagined state. Across multiple tasks, Fast-LeWM improves average success over LeWM while substantially reducing planning time, achieving lower open-loop latent loss whose growth becomes significantly slower as the rollout horizon increases.

Accurate representation of multimodal knowledge is crucial for event forecasting in real-world scenarios. However, existing studies have largely focused on static settings, overlooking the dynamic acquisition and fusion of multimodal knowledge. 1) At the knowledge acquisition level, how to learn time-sensitive information of different modalities, especially the dynamic structural modality. Existing dynamic learning methods are often limited to shallow structures across heterogeneous spaces or simple unispaces, making it difficult to capture deep relation-aware geometric features. 2) At the knowledge fusion level, how to learn evolving multimodal fusion features. Existing knowledge fusion methods based on static coattention struggle to capture the varying historical contributions of different modalities to future events. To this end, we propose DyMRL, a Dynamic Multispace Representation Learning approach to efficiently acquire and fuse multimodal temporal knowledge. 1) For the former issue, DyMRL integrates time-specific structural features from Euclidean, hyperbolic, and complex spaces into a relational message-passing framework to learn deep representations, reflecting human intelligences in associative thinking, high-order abstracting, and logical reasoning. Pretrained models endow DyMRL with time-sensitive visual and linguistic intelligences. 2) For the latter concern, DyMRL incorporates advanced dual fusion-evolution attention mechanisms that assign dynamic learning emphases equally to different modalities at different timestamps in a symmetric manner. To evaluate DyMRL's event forecasting performance through leveraging its learned multimodal temporal knowledge in history, we construct four multimodal temporal knowledge graph benchmarks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DyMRL outperforms state-of-the-art dynamic unimodal and static multimodal baseline methods.

World Action Models (WAMs) have recently emerged as a promising paradigm for robotic manipulation by jointly predicting future visual observations and future actions. However, current WAMs typically execute a fixed number of predicted actions after each model inference, leaving the robot blind to whether the imagined future remains consistent with the actual physical rollout. In this work, we formulate adaptive WAM execution as a future-reality verification problem: the robot should execute longer when the WAM-predicted future remains reliable, and replan earlier when reality deviates from imagination. To this end, we propose Future Forward Dynamics Causal Attention (FFDC), a lightweight verifier that jointly reasons over predicted future actions, predicted visual dynamics, real observations, and language instructions to estimate whether the remaining action rollout can still be trusted. FFDC enables adaptive action chunk sizes as an emergent consequence of prediction-observation consistency, preserving the efficiency of long-horizon execution while restoring responsiveness in contact-rich or difficult phases. We further introduce Mixture-of-Horizon Training to improve long-horizon trajectory coverage for adaptive execution. Experiments on the RoboTwin benchmark and in the real world demonstrate that our method achieves a strong robustness-efficiency trade-off: on RoboTwin, it reduces WAM forward passes by 69.10% and execution time by 34.02%, while improving success rate by 2.54% over the short-chunk baseline; in real-world experiments, it improves success rate by 35%.

In reasoning about sequential events it is natural to pose probabilistic queries such as "when will event A occur next" or "what is the probability of A occurring before B", with applications in areas such as user modeling, medicine, and finance. However, with machine learning shifting towards neural autoregressive models such as RNNs and transformers, probabilistic querying has been largely restricted to simple cases such as next-event prediction. This is in part due to the fact that future querying involves marginalization over large path spaces, which is not straightforward to do efficiently in such models. In this paper we introduce a general typology for predictive queries in neural autoregressive sequence models and show that such queries can be systematically represented by sets of elementary building blocks. We leverage this typology to develop new query estimation methods based on beam search, importance sampling, and hybrids. Across four large-scale sequence datasets from different application domains, as well as for the GPT-2 language model, we demonstrate the ability to make query answering tractable for arbitrary queries in exponentially-large predictive path-spaces, and find clear differences in cost-accuracy tradeoffs between search and sampling methods.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Recent progress in latent world models (e.g., V-JEPA2) has shown promising capability in forecasting future world states from video observations. Nevertheless, dense prediction from a short observation window limits temporal context and can bias predictors toward local, low-level extrapolation, making it difficult to capture long-horizon semantics and reducing downstream utility. Vision--language models (VLMs), in contrast, provide strong semantic grounding and general knowledge by reasoning over uniformly sampled frames, but they are not ideal as standalone dense predictors due to compute-driven sparse sampling, a language-output bottleneck that compresses fine-grained interaction states into text-oriented representations, and a data-regime mismatch when adapting to small action-conditioned datasets. We propose a VLM-guided JEPA-style latent world modeling framework that combines dense-frame dynamics modeling with long-horizon semantic guidance via a dual-temporal pathway: a dense JEPA branch for fine-grained motion and interaction cues, and a uniformly sampled VLM thinker branch with a larger temporal stride for knowledge-rich guidance. To transfer the VLM's progressive reasoning signals effectively, we introduce a hierarchical pyramid representation extraction module that aggregates multi-layer VLM representations into guidance features compatible with latent prediction. Experiments on hand-manipulation trajectory prediction show that our method outperforms both a strong VLM-only baseline and a JEPA-predictor baseline, and yields more robust long-horizon rollout behavior.

Uniform random exploration in decision-making systems supports off-policy learning via supervision but incurs high regret, making it impractical for many applications. Conversely, non-uniform exploration offers better immediate performance but lacks support for off-policy learning. Recent research suggests that regression oracles can bridge this gap by combining non-uniform exploration with supervised learning. In this paper, we analyze these approaches within a real-world industrial context at Adyen, a large global payments processor characterized by batch logged delayed feedback, short-term memory, and dynamic action spaces under the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework. Our analysis reveals that while regression oracles significantly improve performance, they introduce challenges due to rigid algorithmic assumptions. Specifically, we observe that as a policy improves, subsequent generations may perform worse due to shifts in the reward distribution and increased class imbalance in the training data. This degradation occurs de spite improvements in other aspects of the training data, leading to decreased performance in successive policy iterations. We further explore the long-term impact of regression oracles, identifying a potential "oscillation effect." This effect arises when regression oracles influence probability estimates and the realizability of subsequent policy models, leading to fluctuations in performance across iterations. Our findings highlight the need for more adaptable algorithms that can leverage the benefits of regression oracles without introducing instability in policy performance over time.